Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, surged on morning session but this was reversed as the price was able to break towards the 1.33 mark and below. The pair is lastly seen to position a support level at 1.3264. A break lower than the said level indicates the continuation of downtrend from 1.3535 mark. The next level target will be at 1.3100. The Resistance sits atop of the 1.3414 level and a break lower than this psychological level completes the downtrend has been completed as it reached the 1.3264 level. In the next uptrend, this could drag the price towards the 1.3500 mark.

This is supported as the oil market strengthens as it pulls the price higher than the $50 handle. If the market was able to break beyond this area. It could reach as low as 1.3150 level at the bottom. On the other hand, if the market is seen to form supportive candle it possible for the price to reach the 1.34 handle along with the sell-off in the oil market.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 4, 2017

The EUR/USD pair traded consistently as the market is currently in the process of preparing itself for the series of economic data set to be released later this week. Analysts have been saying that the currency pair would most likely continue consolidating for a maximum of two days as part of the market’s preparation for the expected string of data coming out within the week. This is why the EUR/USD pair was trapped within a range of 40 pips for the entirety of yesterday’s session which is barely half of its usual range. This could be attributed to the majority of traders wanting to be on the safe side of the market as the 2nd quarter of the year begins.

The US released its ISM manufacturing data yesterday, with the said data meeting market expectations and has helped the USD to maintain its stance. The US Treasury yields plummeted during the NY session and had very little effect on the USD in spite of its major effect on stocks and the Japanese yen. The NFP report and the FOMC minutes are set to be released during the latter part of this week, and the market is now anticipating the statements coming from the Fed especially since Yellen had previously stated that the central bank’s stance on future rate hikes would depend on the state of the nation’s economic data.

For today’s session, ECB’s Draghi is set to make a speech during the NY session but since the central bank governor is known to be neutral when it comes to the ECB’s monetary policy, the market expects no impact coming from this statement and it is highly likely that the EUR/USD pair would only continue to consolidate between 1.0600-1.0700 points as it waits for significant pushes toward a definite direction.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 5, 2017

The single European currency earned support from the upbeat figures of Eurozone’s Producer Price Index (PPI).

The bigger picture showed negative stance on Tuesday. The EUR sustained a neutral position in the morning. The major were trading in a tight channel within the middle points 1.0650 - 1.0675.

The downward pressure were fuelled up in the afternoon. Sellers struggled to break under the handle, however, they were unable to achieve it.

As the 4-hour chart delineated, the spot attempted to made a gap through the 200-EMA and hovered around it. At the same time, the 100 and 50-EMAs faced lower while 200-EMA is in the neutral seat.

Resistance came in at 1.0700 level, support is at 1.0650 mark

MACD histogram softened indicating a sell signal. The RSI trailed downwards confirming sellers’ strength.

The EURUSD pair contains a moderate bearish perspective. A move down from the 1.0650 region would trigger bearishness near 1.0600 range.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 5, 2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) coincided expectations as they maintained its rate. The Australian dollar lose its legs after the release of weaker statistics for labor and inflation. Furthermore, the AUD was laid out near the pressured area on Tuesday. With this, the spot took a dip on its renewed multi-week lows on Tuesday.

The price was removed from the region 0.7600 during the daily open. The Aussie extended its trading near the negative zone throughout the night until it reached 0.7550 level the next day.

The easing of the selling pressure took place over the handle while the major attempted to begin a consolidation.

The AUDUSD resumed its development below the moving averages specified in the 4-hour chart. It further presented the 50-EMA to crossed down to the 100 and 200-EMA alongside the crossover set by 200-EMA to the 100-EMA. Moreover, the 100-EMA became neutral as the 200 and 50-EMAs continued a downtrend.

Resistance pierced 0.7600 area, support is at 0.7550 mark.

The MACD histogram dwindled highlighting strength for the sellers. RSI indicator settled in the oversold grounds, indicating a fresh downward trend.

The commodity-linked pair stalled near 0.7550 and the downfall is anticipated to last longer. The next focus of the pair would probably the support 0.7500.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

The economic calendar of New Zealand appeared to be uneventful, however, the major got some support from the positive remarks of Moody’s triple-A rating for New Zealand. On one side, the US dollar remained to be in control prior to Trump-Xi Summit.

The NZD/USD maintained a neutral stance confined over 0.6950 level throughout the night session. The spot witnessed renewed offers in the first part of the day and headed downwards. The pair continue its attempt in reaching its 3-week lows later today.

As defined in the 4-hour chart, the spot remained to develop under the moving averages as the 50 and 200-EMAs dive lower. Furthermore, the 100-EMA pushed higher and the 50-EMA go over the 100-EMA.

Resistance is at 0.7000 mark, support is found at 0.6950 area.

The MACD histogram preserved the same grounds indicating strength for the sellers. RSI indicator touched the undervalued zone, confirming additional move upwards.

The commodity-linked pair is expected to resume its negative sentiment. A close under support region 0.6950 would likely see the pair to persist a downturn to 0.6900.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

The British PMI Services exceeds anticipated results providing support for Britain’s currency. The Great Britain pound came in positive during Asian trades yesterday. The major were developing well over the night. Also, the GBPUSD met a renewed buying-wave amid morning session of Europe.

The price continued to grow and spiked towards 1.2500 region, but the spot found a selling interest stalling its progress.

It can be witnessed in the 4-hour chart, the major to test the 50-EMA and kept its position. Moreover, the timeframe outlined the 50-EMA downward trend, 100-EMA preserved a bullish pattern and the 200-EMA arrived neutral.

Resistance came in at 1.2500 mark, support pierced 1.2400 level.

The MACD histogram sustained its previous stance confirming sellers’ strength. RSI oscillator aimed higher.

Regardless of the fresh buying interest, the pair has uncertainties for its future. The buyers appeared slightly weak in sending more gains causing the sterling to move to the downside. The pair had to touch below the range 1.2450 to bring about a new downward impetus to test 1.2400.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

The weak Eurozone PMI place pressure on the common European currency yesterday. The EUR/USD fixates on the release of ADP employment report and FOMC minutes later this day.

The EUR appeared neutral in the morning. The price moves in a familiar trading range positioned between the points 1.0650 and 1.0670.

The rebound occurred on Tuesday supported the spot to reach the upper limit of the range by which the upward momentum dwindled. The pair trailed the band’s upper limit and advance lower in the middle of the day amid EU hours.

As specified in the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded below the 200-EMA and the 50-EMA resumed a downward trend. While the 200 and 100-EMA drove higher.

Resistance is found at 1.0700 region, support hit 1.0650 mark.

The MACD histogram strengthened which showed weakening for the positions of sellers. The RSI headed northwards confirming a current upward impetus.

It is recommended to remain neutral unless clear signals were obtained. A break in the 1.0650 area targets the next level at 1.0600. Should a rebound occurred within the mentioned range allows the buyers to regain the control and posting the market near 1.0750.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 6, 2017

The EUR/USD pair is yet again trapped within a very limited trading range, which has been the pair’s dominant trend ever since the start of the week. The slew of economic data from the US economy did little to push the currency pair through its current range, although it has tested both barriers but has not yet come close to breaking through this particular range. However, the market is expecting the currency pair to make a breakthrough anytime within this week, and a break in any direction is expected to be very large-scale, with runs possibly occurring.

The EUR/USD pair traded tightly during the Tokyo and London sessions yesterday as it awaited for the release of economic data from the US. The ADP employment report was the first to come out, with the said data exceeding initial market expectations of less than 200K after it came out at 250K. Although last month’s reading was revised as a result, 250K is still a very strong average if we take into consideration the reading for the two previous months. This also marked the continuation of a steady stream of positive data from the US economy. In addition, this also put the EUR/USD pair under pressure and tested its range lows of 1.0630 although it made a small recovery towards the end of the session.

Next up was the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which was very lackluster as it did not contain any relevant information for traders. The said minutes contained only balance sheet discussions and did not induce enough volatility for the EUR/USD pair. The USD was also put under pressure as the majority of House members expressed major uncertainties with regards to Trump’s tax plans, and this has helped the EUR/USD to recover towards 1.0680 points.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the EU economy although the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The USD is expected to remain under pressure for the duration of today’s session, with the EUR/USD remaining afloat and could possibly break through its range highs at any point within today’s session.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 6, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continued its current trend of trading within 1.2400 and 1.2500 points, something which is already pretty much anticipated by analysts yesterday. The GBP/USD pair is expected to break through this trap any time now, but even if it does manage to surpass this particular range, there is still a lot of resistance and support amounts on both barriers and the currency pair is not expected to go far in terms of its range. It would take a lot of clearing up for the Brexit process including its ongoing negotiations before the market can form a substantial opinion regarding the current status of the British economy, and only then will the sterling pound be able to move towards a specific direction.

The UK Services PMI data was released yesterday and came in at a much better reading than what was expected in the first place. This has then helped to offset the imbalance caused by Monday’s PMI data, which was generally a disappointment to the market. The ADP employment report also exceeded market expectations and this has caused the GBP/USD pair to test its bottom range at 1.2450 but was still unable to surpass this particular boundary. The FOMC minutes then got released during the latter part of yesterday’s session, although this had almost no effect on market volatility. There were also news regarding concerns surrounding Trump’s tax plans, and this has put significant downwards pressure on the US dollar and caused the GBP/USD pair to advance towards 1.2500 points.

There are no major news releases expected from the British economy although we do have the US unemployment claims data set to be released later today. The SUD is most likely to remain under pressure today, and the GBP/USD pair could possibly test 1.2500 points, and could even reach 1.2600 points if it manages to break through its current range.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 6, 2017

The USD/CAD surged in value during yesterday’s session following a series of strong US data and a drop in oil prices. Although the US dollar decreased significantly as a reaction to a very disappointing FOMC meeting minutes, it has still somewhat managed to maintain its grip on its advantaged against the Canadian dollar and is currently trading at its safe zone of just under 1.3450 points and could possibly be poised for more gains within the day. The pair’s bulls are currently at ease since the USD/CAD has managed to surpass its range highs of 1.3400 points. However, there is still the heavy resistance found at 1.3500 points which could possibly be overtaken by the pair’s bears.

The ADP employment change data from the US came out on a very impressive note yesterday, and this has enabled the USD/CAD pair to break the 1.3400 barrier. The pair was also generally unaffected by the dismal FOMC meeting minutes, and was even unshaken by Trump’s tax plans which are currently in hot water from House members. The major reason for this is the CAD’s significant backing from a drop in oil prices after it fell from $52 and is now priced at just $51. This was mostly because of the API data which exhibited a major buildup, bearing bad news for the CAD and thereby pushing the pair towards its range highs of 1.3450 points.

The Canadian economy is not set to release any important economic data until tomorrow, while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data today. The USD/CAD pair is then expected to merely exhibit ranging and consolidation for the time being.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017

The national currency of Britain remained neutral in the morning. The GBP/USD stayed within its fresh highs during the night. The major was selling aggressively during the first part of the day as the price declined near 1.2460 level.

Having renewed its sessions lows the spot cool down. Meanwhile, the British pound was unable to resume its advancement and turned back in the mark amid late session of Europe.

A renewed selling pressure emerged prior the onset of New York hours. The major lost its strength as it moves towards the region 1.2420.

The spot kept intact around the 50-EMA while 100-EMA trailed lower determined in the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the 50 and 200-EMA came in neutral.

Resistance is found at 1.2500 mark, support entered 1.2400 region.

The MACD histogram lies at the centerline. On one side, the indicator entered the positive grounds, it will show increasing strength of the buyers and on the other hand, a return to the negative territory would let the sellers be in the driver’s seat. RSI alighted neutral.

The bullishness remain unless we witness a break on top of 1.2450 range. Buyers struggled to regain 1.2500 in the next sessions. Otherwise, the 1.2400 area is considered the next intraday support and probably a bearish objective.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 17, 2017

The USD/CAD pair has continued to trade within a very limited range of 150-200 pips, which has been the pair’s dominant trend for the past few weeks. The currency pair was unable to make a breakthrough on both sides in spite of the several economic data released which is pushing the currency pair on both sides, proving to be very frustrating for the currency pair’s traders, particularly for those who want to trade with the USD/CAD pair in the long run. Now that the market is entering the latter half of the month, the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate in the coming weeks.

Last week, the US dollar dropped across the board following comments from Trump concerning the dollar strength as well as the weak interest rates of the nation’s economy. In addition, the BoC has also maintained their current rates and has refused to give out any hints with regards to the central bank’s main course of action. This has then caused the USD/CAD pair to drop down to 1.3300 points and seemed poised to reach 1.3000 points. However, as last week came to a close, the dollar was able to regain its footing, causing it to recover against the Canadian dollar and causing the USD/CAD pair to revert to the 1.3200-1.3400 trading range as it was able to secure a strong profit taking as last week came to a close. In addition, oil prices also surged last week and has managed to settle within $53-$55, ensuring that the USD/.CAD pair remains within its tight trading range.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data as well as the unemployment claims data and the oil inventory data from the US economy. These are not expected to bring in additional volatility for the USD/CAD pair and should put the currency pair within its current trend of ranging and consolidation.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 17, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a very stellar trading week last week as the US dollar crashed during the first part of last week. Although the USD has somewhat managed to recover its losses as the week came to a close, the sterling pound bulls had already held their ground, causing the currency pair to close down last week on a much higher note and just over the significant support barrier at 1.2500 points. This week is looking to be pretty hopeful as far as the GBP/USD pair is concerned especially with a string of important economic events set to be released within the week.

The dollar crashed last week as a result of Trump’s comments with regards to dollar and FX rates and this has caused the dollar to undergo a major selloff immediately after the comments were released. In addition, Trump had already more or less confirmed that the US will not be considering China as a currency manipulator, adding this to the list of campaign promises he had failed to carry out. This caused another dollar selling and sent the GBP/USD pair soaring through 1.2500 and reaching 1.2600 points. More than half of the currency pair’s increase was retracted, however, as the currency pair was met with major sells as it reached 1.2600 points.

For this week, The US will be releasing some small-scale economic data while the UK economy will be observing a market holiday on Monday but will be releasing its retail sales data and Carney’s speaking engagement will commence during the latter part of this week. However, currency traders are not expected to commit themselves too much on the GBP/USD pair since there are still a lot of uncertainties on the Brexit process, and any reversion can be seen as a stable place for a selloff.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 17, 2017

The EUR/USD pair again exhibited a ranging and consolidation action for the second consecutive week as the currency pair was unable to make any significant progress on both directions. There were a handful of economic and geopolitical events that were released last week but these had virtually no effect on the currency pair as the EUR/USD pair merely stuck to its current range even though the pair’s buyers and sellers wrested control of the currency pair from each other.

The highlight of last week’s economic data was Trump’s comments wherein he stated that he preferred the US economy to have relatively low interest rates for as long as realistically possible, which means that it is highly likely that he will appoint dovish Fed officials, sending a shock throughout the market who are expecting more interest rate hikes in the months to come. He also added that the USD’s value is a tad bit too strong as compared to other currencies which are kept weak on purpose by their respective economies, and this backfooted the dollar and sent the EUR/USD pair from 1.0600 to 1.0700 points. However, upon reaching 1.0700 the currency pair was met with a lot of selling, and as the US economy released some pretty good data this has caused the EUR/USD pair to revert to 1.0600 and is now currently situated at just over this particular range.

For this week, there are no expected releases coming from the EU economy although the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and the Manufacturing index data. These are not expected to impact the currency pair and as such, the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its current trend of ranging and consolidation for the duration of the next two weeks.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen was seen to decline during the Friday session as it moved towards the 108 handle. This opens selling opportunities for near-term as it broke lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average transverse lower than the 100-day Exponential Moving Average.


Although, sellers momentum stopped after reaching the 109.00 mark and tried to reclaim the said position after a flat trend during the Thursday session. The pressure grew in during the morning session. The Resistance level was seen at 110.00 while the support positioned at 109.00 mark.


If the pair broke lower than the 108 handle, there is a high possibility for the pair to reach the 105 level. Traders might think twice to buy in short-term and to pay attention for a possible reversal in the price trend. There is still a shot to turn around for a bearish impetus but expect the pair to fall if it will extend lower than the 109.00 level.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar surged during the Friday session as there is a little rebound seen because of gold and its associated geopolitical risks. Moreover, the high value of the dollar as described by President Trump has worsened the situation that pulled the greenback down compared to a basket of currencies. On a bright side, there is still a chance for the price to break in the higher that the trading range on Wednesday last week, towards the 0.7750 and even higher. This would support the reversals of the pair.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during the Tuesday session intersecting the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. There is a significant support found below at 0.75 level and a sign of supportive candle pattern indicates buying opportunity. If the price breaks above the shooting star on Monday session, this signals a bullish tone. Hence, it is much favorable to go long for this pair. The gold market could support this pair which is influential for this pair.

The pair broke lower than the 0.7535 support level indicating that the price moves upward from 0.7473 up to 0.7610 zone. This could further go down towards the next testing at 0.7473 support level and a breakdown in the said level will complete the downtrend indicating a continuation from 0.7749 mark towards 0.7300 area.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017

The British pound versus the U.S. dollar sustained the bid tone during the Tuesday Asian session. The price climbed from 1.2550 during the night and proceeded towards the 1.2600 level the next morning. The pound rebounded moved downhill during the post-London open. It almost reached the 1.2500 level as the trend turned bullish again. It surged upwards reversing losses as it broke exceeding the 1.2600 mark.

The Resistance level came in at 1.2700 while the support level was seen at 1.2600 mark. If the market is capable of sustaining the psychological levels higher than the 1.2600, the buyers will have the upper hand towards 1.2700.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017

The Euro against U.S. dollar rallied with the increased pressure because of a drop in U.S. yields after lesser than expected data. The Housing data also declined while the Industrial production met expectations. The overall European market is in tension as the pair skyrocketed after the unexpected announcement of Theresa may for a snap election on June 8.

The Prime Minister announced a general election seeking a strong approval from the public with the ongoing Brexit negotiation with the European Union. She knows that she has the upper hand and would not be difficult to place in polls. The major opposition party Labour has formally supported Brexit amid the referendum while the Liberal party is antagonistic towards it. The pound was seen to whipsaw as it initially slumped then climbed higher.

The latest French polls showed Macron leading against Le Pen and Melenchon comes third. The U.S. chain store sales climbed to 0.7% this week following a rebound last week after a 1.7% drop on April 1. The U.S. housing began to decline by 6.8% to 1.215 million in March removing all the 5.0% rebound to 1.303 million from 1.288 million in February. The U.S. industrial production rose 0.5% in March meeting expectations, propelled by 8.6% increase in utility output caused by the need for heating amid winter storms.

The pair climbed higher as it breaks above the Resistance level which now becomes the short-term support at 1.0693 level in the 10-day Moving Average. The next support comes in at 1.0569 level. The Resistance level is seen to be close to a downward slope trend line that links in the highs in November following the U.S. elections with the high levels this March close to 1.0850 level. If the price closes much higher than the said level, the next testing would be at 1.0906 level.

The MACD index showed a positive crossover signaling to buy for traders following a negative move prior. The spread seen in the 12-day Moving Average subtracted the 26-MA crossed above the 9-day Moving Average. The index price activity moved in an upward trajectory sloping line which means a higher exchange rate.

It stayed within a narrow 15-pips trading range in the beginning of the day. The Euro is trying to gain momentum to go higher but the sellers limited the rate to 1.0650 level. The spot plays within the area for the whole night during the European session. The resistance comes in at 1.0650 level while the support positioned at 1.0600 mark. It seems that the pair would maintain in a red mark but a move lower than the 1.0600 level would trigger a bearish trend towards the 1.0570 mark.
 
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