Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The Euro paired against the British pound surged in the beginning of the Wednesday session. The Resistance level was too strong that the market failed to break out. Consequently, the price would most probably decline and tried to fill the gap formed at the beginning of the week. Traders who would like to sell for short-term could do so but should be heedful of a lot of noise present in the area and best to wait for the sidelines until a chance to go long comes in. A breakout of the current trading range would also be a propitious sign for this pair.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2017

The EUR/USD pair backfooted during the earlier parts of yesterday’s session following rumors that Trump will be releasing the details of his proposed tax plans within the week, with these tax cuts expected to be large-scale and caused the USD to surge and pushed the currency pair at 1.0900 and is now moving at the 1.0850 trading range, with traders now expecting Trump’s comments regarding this particular issue.

During the NY trading session, President Trump announced the details of his tax plan, although it appeared as if the market has pretty much cashed in on the situation as the USD was unable to make much progress as the said tax plan was announced. The USD instead dropped in value across the board since the market was expecting additional tax cuts and more details than what was initially released to the public yesterday. Simply put, the market expected more details but instead got headlines and other media-worthy bits. Nevertheless the tax plans are somewhat looking good although it has yet to be seen whether Trump’s tax plan would be easily approved or if it would have to face challenges which was what happened to the administration’s health care plan. The weakness of the USD caused the EUR/USD pair to revert towards just above 1.0900 points.

For today’s session, the ECB will be releasing its rate announcement followed by a press conference, wherein the central bank is expected to maintain its current rates. The market is now monitoring whether Draghi would induce the euro to go back down especially after the currency surged as a response to the first round of the French elections. Draghi would want to maintain the weakness of the euro, but then again this is somewhat impossible now that the region’s economic indicators are looking very positive.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a very consistent price action during yesterday’s trading session although it is still located at the 1.2900 trading range which the pair has reached a few trading sessions ago. Unless the currency pair manages to break through this particular trading range, then there is still a risk that the GBP/USD pair could revert anytime into the 1.2600 range in the short term. As of the moment, the pair’s bulls have total control of the currency pair but if the cable pair is still unable to make an upward move in the coming days, then the pair should be pushed down in order to gain more buyers, thereby creating just enough momentum for the pair to shoot past 1.2900 points once the pair rallies again.

During the previous session, the GBP/USD pair underwent a very restricted consolidation mode since the market was busy monitoring the results of Trump’s announcement later that day. After the tax plan was announced, the dollar dropped slightly in value and this caused the GBP/USD pair to climb above the 1.2850 trading range where it looks poised to further reach into the 1.2900 region. The announcement from Trump was unable to improve the dollar outlook as most of the details of the announcement was pretty much priced in by the market. In addition, the market is also somewhat skeptical on whether Trump would be able to actually push through with the tax plan as most of his campaign promises are left unsupported by members of his own party, such as the health care plan. This caused the USD to backfoot which was then used by the GBP/USD pair to gain an advantage in the market.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. Traders are advised to take caution as choppy trading is expected today.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The currency pair Great Britain Pound to US Dollar is seen trading around 1.2903 area. The Cable successfully refreshed the local maximum level but the head and shoulders reversal pattern formed at the MACD histogram.

The signal line remained in the MACD limits and we do not rule out the possibility for sterling to edged higher.

Should the GBPUSD rose would test its potential to reach the upper boundary of the increasing channel. The target for fall is the range within the support 1.2650 mark.

Canceling the version of declining quotations would signal a stable growth and further breakdown within the 1.2980 level while the expectation for continuous growth will extend around the decline of the upper boundary of the ascending channel.

According to projections, the pair will accelerate its downfall alongside the drop slow MA level and its daily close at 1.2760 region.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar surged during the Thursday session. Although the 0.75 area was being resistive and a break at 0.7540 level indicates completion of the downtrend. This reversed the trend as it reached below the 0.7450 and 0.7439 region. A break lower than the base of the region, the pair is anticipated to continue its decline even in the next few days towards the next target of 0.7400 level. The 0.7375 level becomes a significant support with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and it seems that the pair will hold upon this level. The gold market could support the pair to boost demand for the currency.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The British pound surged against the Japanese yen on Thursday session after breaking above the shooting star pattern formed in the former session. It indicates bullishness of the trend which could continue to rise higher but few short-term pullbacks are good for the pair. For long term traders, the market could try to reach higher than the 145 handle.

The pound persists in climbing higher because of the relief rally where the centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron won over the far-right rival, Marine Le Pen. Japanese yen being a safe haven dropped abruptly over a week amid a risky environment.

The GBP/JPY pair rose sharply to break the major downtrend line moving up to 148.00 level despite the Brexit tension has passed and lower demand for safe-haven assets such as yen. The rally has been sustained until Thursday session that also pushed the pair higher and hampers unexpected political surprises that also affects global market. The next major resistance level would be close to the 145.00 region. If the market fails to break higher than the 145.00 level, the pair could move again towards the next target of 148.00 resistance region.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

Yesterday was a very slow trading day for the GBP/USD pair as the market holidays in Europe and Asia left several trading desks vacant, thereby decreasing the amount of market volatility. The currency pair had briefly attempted to test its range highs at 1.2945 points but then eventually dropped in value as the day progressed before finally closing down yesterday’s session at 1.2900 points.

There is little market volatility nowadays in spite of Trump being as crass as usual with regards to his public comments on Twitter regarding US relationships with other countries such as Russia and China, mostly because market players have somehow gotten used to the President’s attitude. As a result, the GBP/USD pair was largely affected since it still has no definite course of action as of late. However, it is only a matter of time before the expected surge of economic data which usually occurs during the first week of a new month. The GBP/USD pair is expected to exhibit more consolidation until all the scheduled economic reports are released within the week, starting from the FOMC minutes this coming Wednesday.

For today’s session, the UK economy will be releasing its Manufacturing PMI data during the EU session, with the said reading expected to follow the recent slew of positive economic data from the region during these past few months. If this indeed happens, then the cable pair could possibly test its range highs yet again within today’s session.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a ranging and consolidation during the duration of yesterday’s session. It was a market holiday yesterday in several parts of Europe and Asia, and this is why the market volatility and liquidity levels were on a low during the previous session. In addition, traders are also proceeding with caution since the first week of the month is usually characterized by an influx of economic readings from last month.

These factors were the main reason why the currency pair consolidated within a small range of less than 50 pips. Today could be considered as the legitimate start of the week, and now that there is an expected surge of data coming from last month, the market is expected to undergo some significant volatility for today. The EUR/USD pair ran at 200 pips during the previous week following the results of French national elections, and this is why the currency pair could possibly be subject to corrections, although it has yet to be seen just how significant these corrections would be. The 1.0850 trading range is expected to ward off any corrections at least for the time being while the market waits for the release of economic data this week. The FOMC meeting minutes, the NFP report, and a speech from Yellen will be released within the week which could induce volatility in the pair. However, the market will be looking out for any hints of a Fed rate hike this June and if this does not happen, then the EUR/USD pair could possibly test the 1.1000 trading range.

For today’s session, there are no major economic releases from both the EU and US economy for today, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo a consolidation with bearish undertones for the rest of today’s session.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

Investors on the USD/JPY pair chose to pay no mind to the relatively weak economic data coming from the US and instead shifted its focus on the recent increase in the demand for high-yield assets such as stocks, as well as an increase in the yields of US Treasuries. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 11.824 points after increasing by +0.30% or 0.335 points.

A drop in the US economy’s inflation and factory rates has put out any possible expectations for an interest rate hike this coming June from the Fed. Meanwhile, the PCE index dropped by 0.1 points last March, the index’s largest decrease ever since September 2001. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index increased by 1.6%, which is its smallest gain since July 2016. US Treasury yields surged yesterday after the US government managed to avoid a possible shutdown after clinching a deal for government funding. Equity prices also managed to climb higher, which also heightened the demand for high-risk assets and diminished the demand for the Japanese yen.

The USD/JPY pair could possibly find more support just as long as there is a demand for high-yield assets. However, the currency pair quickly became range-bound since investors are now bracing themselves for the Fed’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday. As of the moment, the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement an interest rate hike this coming Wednesday, however the USD/JPY could possibly be influenced by the central bank’s statement tomorrow. Traders are advised to look for any clues with regards to the Fed’s next timing for its interest rate hike.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 2, 2017

The British pound dwindled on its previous highs followed by traders’ decision to sell its stock with higher to value to gain profits. The major declined towards 1.2900 region where the downturn stopped afterwards. The technical indicators showed mixed signals.

Furthermore, the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs exhibited buying signal. The RSI and MACD are trading in the downside. Resistance approached near the 1.3000 level, support touched 1.2900 range.

According to predictions, a break under 1.2900 will generate an area for further negative movement. In line with this possible scenario, sellers are expected to drive the spot towards 1.2800 mark.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 2, 2017

The USD/JPY provided a bullish sentiment on Monday. A bounced off from the level 111.20 pushed the spot outside the red.

The pair tends to increase throughout the night until the morning. It further moves near 112.00 during the middle part of the day.

Meanwhile, technical indicators owned a positive stance. The 50-EMA have seen to cross upwards the 100-EMA. The RSI together with the RSI increased, en route northwards.

Resistance plunge in the 112.00 mark, support lies at 111.00 region.

Forecast says, maintaining an upward pressure could lead to a breakout within 112.00 region making 113.00 level, the next target of the traders.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 2, 2017

The New Zealand currency was able to gain higher against its U.S peer during Monday trades, however, encountered some sort of trouble over the 0.69 handle. The market continued to turn around causing a possible drop below the region 0.69 and a long-term downtrend has to remain. Otherwise, a break on top of the 0.6933 mark will lead the market towards 0.6950.

The market decided to sell off but it seems unsustainable which could possibly make a strong rebound.

The NZD appeared to be highly sensitive with regards the general sentiment of the commodity markets. While a cut through over the region 0.6950 would push the market near 0.70 mark but the possibility of this to happen is much lower.

A sharp and temporary pace is probable and part of it came from the May Day celebrations while volumes were light. Considering this, a door for selling opportunity has opened prior the kiwi was beaten up

A monumental risk on rally within the globe is required for a convincing power that this pair could show a buying signal at any moment.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 5, 2017

The EUR/USD pair inched higher during yesterday’s trading session after the US dollar dropped in value across the board due to some weak economic readings from the US economy. However, it has to be taken into consideration that these set of data were generally minor ones, such as trade balance, unemployment claims and factory orders. The major economic readings will be released today, and these are expected to induce more volatility into the market as compared to yesterday’s levels.

During the past few weeks, the EUR has been consistently strong as compared to other major currencies due to a slew of positive geopolitical and economic readings from the eurozone, which came in the form of the French national elections as well as the Brexit negotiations. These has then made it very hard for usual doves such as Draghi to have optimistic views for the landlocked region’s economic status. On the other hand, this has enabled the EUR/USD pair to surpass its range highs during the past two weeks and is looking poised for more although during this period the US dollar was also of higher value as compared to now. The dollar is actually looking forward to a possible rate hike this coming June but strength of the euro can be seen on how the currency pair still manages to hold its ground in spite of this particular bit of news.

For today’s session, the wages report as well as the NFP report will be released by the US economy. The wages report will be closely monitored by market players since a lack of boost in the wages report will not be enough in spite of a rate hike possibility and additional employment rates. As such, any inconsistencies with these said data will cause the EUR/USD pair to surpass 1.1000 points and could possibly make its way towards 1.1120 points.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 5, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a very limited trading range on both sides of 1.2900 points and has been unable to surpass this range which has been the pair’s current trend as far as this week is concerned. There have been various types of PMI data coming from the UK economy during the past days and although these were all able to surpass initial market expectations, these were unable to help the cable pair surpass the very heavy resistance range at 1.2940 points.

The cable pair strayed from 1.2900 and went under this range during the previous session but then a string of positive PMI data was able to keep the pair under control and push it back towards 1.2900 points, where it traded within a 30-pip range during the rest of yesterday’s session. While the euro was able to take advantage of the dollar weakness yesterday, the sterling pound was unable to capitalize on this development and was instead relegated to trade within its current range. There was a scarcity of significant geopolitical and economic readings yesterday which could have helped the sterling pound to inch higher, and this is one of the reasons why the GBP/USD pair was kept in such a tight range. However, the pair’s ranging is expected to be broken later today when the NFP report and the employment data gets released into the market by the US economy, with a breakthrough of 1.2940 points possibly triggering the pair to move towards the very crucial 1.3000 points. An interest rate hike in June is pretty much in the bag, and this is why the dollar will have to maintain its footing via strong economic data which could be released today.

For today’s session, a handful of Fed officials including Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be making speeches later in the day aside from the release of important data such as the NFP report and the wages data. These series of events are then expected to increase the market volatility. The pair could either surpass 1.2800 points or make headway towards 1.3000 points.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 5, 2017

The New Zealand dollar dropped during the Thursday session. The market has gone bearish because of the commodity market and the jobs data to be released. Traders should not forget that the price trend for the kiwi dollar would be influenced by the commodity market. The current trend could go higher reaching the 0.68 handle and short-term surge would mean selling opportunity. If the price breaks lower than the psychological level, the price would go downward instead. Traders should anticipate high volatility in the market but would be favorable for the U.S. dollar since the awaited jobs data to be released today.

The Future market also influences the currency although would not be directly influenced with any market. One could find a correlation between milk futures and the kiwi although it would not do much since the liquidity isn’t that high. The safe way is to compare with other commodities to determine how this currency will move and its overall tone in the market and wait for a short-term surge. It is possible to reverse the trend when it breaks higher than the 0.69 level and turn bullish as a follow through and climb higher.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 5, 2017

The British pound paired with the Japanese yen moved to and fro during the Thursday session as it declined lower than the 145 handle although a momentum built up and the trend went back up again. Traders should expect a choppy trading and going for a long-term uptrend that makes pullbacks good to buy.

The next target level would be at 146 level while 145 region gives a significant support in the pair. The long-term availability of this market looks promising but the highly sensitive which means that the job data will definitely have an impact to this pair. If the price breaks lower than the 72 -hour Moving average that is in blue, there will be higher selling pressure but it is best to buy the pair instead.

Furthermore traders should also monitor the stock market that would also be relevant for this pair. It would give a pellucid perspective in the overall condition of the market and determined risks associated. Traders will most likely take advantage of this pair if there is higher buying pressure but remember that there will be choppiness in the market especially as it moves upward. The recent report will have an effect to the pair but would still be in an uptrend. Hence, some support levels below would give buying opportunities in the market especially that this could climb higher.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 5, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a high volatility during the Thursday session. The market tried to break higher than the 113 level but failed that makes it much safer to be patient and wait in the sidelines until the jobs data has been released. Moreover, the bullish tone will persist in the long term.

There is a significant support found close to 112.50 level which may be better to move upward although this will be unexpected. The 112 region will be massively supportive but it still might shift when the jobs data results is negative. The labor report is anticipated to give 185,000 jobs for the month of April which the market in now focused on.

It is most likely that this pair will be influenced by the jobs data and if the results are positive, the pair will follow through.if the price breaks higher than the 112 level will be a relevant move while a break at 113 level could further bring the price at 115 level which is the former peak that is in consolidation. More noise in the trend would also impact the trend and make it more difficult to trade during the day. If traders would sway with the ongoing volatility, there is a chance for long term trades. Traders could buy the pair multiple time as it moves towards the 115 handle.

There is not much pressure anymore for the USD/JPY pair as its reach new weekly top during the Thursday session. The uptrend halted at 112.75 which is the psychological level for yesterday and the following morning. Buyers tried to test the 113.00 level prior to the New York opening. The resistance level resides at 113.00 level while the support is found at 112.00 region. The 4-hour charts are showing positive signs. If the bulls were able to break higher than the 113.00 level in the next sessions, the next possible target would be at 113.50 level.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 5, 2017

The EURUSD rallied on Thursday hitting the 1.0950 region which the top of the latest consolidation. As the job number will be release, it is expected the market will struggle to make some progress.

The level below 1.09 appeared to be supportive, en route 1.08. A break in this area would suggest a strong signal towards the mark 1.10 along with the issuance of the Nonfarm Payroll. Hence, a cut through the 1.10 will push through 1.12.

Meanwhile, the market anticipates for a favorable result, however, the pair extended its uptrend because of the “risk on” type of announcement.

The most probable scenario is that the pair will pull back, considering the 1.0900 area since Asian traders stayed on the sidelines due to volatility.

If we surpassed below the range 1.0830 amid the session, the dive will enable to fill the gap towards 1.0750.

Moreover, the positive sentiment on the back of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting aided the USD in recovering but the winning streak seems short-lived. A soft tone surrounded by the American dollar also helped the European currency to reacquire 1.0900 yesterday.

The EUR reversed its losses during the noon session highs of Europe found at 1.0940. The technical indicators appeared to be positive based on the 4-hour chart.

Resistance lies at 1.0950, support entered 1.0900.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 8, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had an ambiguous trading action during the previous week as the pair seemed to sway without outlining any specific direction for itself. The currency pair initially moved consistently upwards as it was able to break free from the chains of the 1.3500 trading range, where it was met with strong buying activity which just led to the currency pair making more progress than ever.

The USD/CAD pair was able to make significant headway last week as it was able to move within the 1.3800 range. All of the pair’s recent corrections were not met with any significant follow throughs, and this further cemented the market’s confidence in the pair’s bullish undertone, and the signs last week just showed the justification of this particular market sentiment. The recent drop in oil prices contributed to a weakening in the value of the Canadian dollar and further incite the bullish trend of the currency pair. As the pair approached the end of last week, the currency pair’s correction began as oil prices managed to recover its losses. In addition, the USD also bore the brunt of the negative effects of a disappointing wages report which was released last Friday. The pair has since then plummeted beyond its range lows and now sits at just under 1.3650 points.

For this week, the US will be releasing its CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, while there are no expected releases from the Canadian economy. Oil prices could possibly maintain its bearish attitude, which means that the USD/CAD pair will continue to be bullish. Now that the currency pair’s resistance level has been broken through and with support levels drawing within 1.3550 points, the currency pair is expected to remain afloat and push through with its bullish attitude for the rest of this week.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 8, 2017

The greenbacks edged higher versus its Canadian counterpart amid the week, however, the result for job figures surprised the market on Friday, providing a greater result than expected. In light of this, the market seems to buy oil as the demand is anticipated to grow. But the oil is dealing with some issues causing the strength of the petroleum market to be short-term.

This further helped the loonie throughout Friday trades as they formed a shooting star in a little while as the session ended. Still, the region below 1.36 appeared to be supportive and certainly, the buyers will return. Since the employment status of Canada is in neutral stance because they have missed the released of job numbers.

It is recommended to buy dips in USDCAD as the market assumed to met buyers down from the level 1.360.

A turnaround in the oil rally will take place at the $47 range which could move the market in the upside. The mark 1.40 remains to be the target but might take a longer time to reach that point.

Selling is ruled out as the market seems impulsive and will be smooth again for the following sessions, nevertheless, it should be contemplated well to make the trade viable.

Contrarily, a break beyond the weekly top of the range provided a bullish signal and an advance to 1.40.
 
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