Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2017

The GBP/USD pair soared on back of UK PM Theresa May’s call for a snap election during yesterday’s session. The cable pair increased exponentially in value after surging from its previous level of 1.2520 points to 1.2900 points. The currency pair started out initially small but a sudden surge in volatility caused the pair to skyrocket towards 1.2900 points and is now currently situated at just over 1.2800 points, the highest level that the pair has reached so far this 2017.

One of the main reasons behind this surge in the GBP/USD pair is the fact that Theresa May called for a snap election immediately after invoking Article 50, which means that there is basically no turning back as far as the Brexit process is concerned, ergo the said elections are not really high up on the list of the UK’s Brexit timetable. A snap election amidst a turmoil in the UK economy also means that she could possibly emerge victorious with a strong mandate included. This could induce more power to the PM’s position, especially with the ongoing negotiations over the Brexit process.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy and the current trend of the GBP/USD pair is expected to manifest up until today. The cable pair is now up against a strong selling range and traders should throw caution to a possible correction at the resistance level of 1.2650 in the short term period.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was able to take advantage of the news that came out during yesterday’s session pertaining to Theresa May’s call for a snap election this coming June 2017. But on a logical perspective, it seems unnatural that both the sterling pound and the euro are benefitting from this bit of news, since the GBP’s reaction is based on the possibility that the snap elections will enable Theresa May to tighten her grip on her current position as Prime Minister and give her more influence on the Brexit negotiations against EU officials, and this should cause the euro to drop even further.

The only plausible reason behind this phenomenon is the recent drop in the USD’s value as the Trump administration continue to increase international tension amide threats to DPRK. So with the dollar weakness across the board, the EUR/USD pair was able to advance from 1.0650 points to exceeding 1.0700 and even going past 1.0730 before finally settling down to trade at just over 1.0700 points as of the moment.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from both the EU economy and the US economy and this bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue throughout the duration of today’s session and could possibly induce the pair to advance towards 1.0750 where it is expected to be met by a lot of selling activity.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2017

The USD/JPY pair crashed yesterday as investors reacted to a very disappointing US economic data amid the beginning of talks between the US and the Japanese economy. The currency pair closed down the previous session at 108.430 points after dropping by -0.44% or 0.474 points. As of the moment, the currency pair is trading at 108.584 points after increasing by +0.14% or 0.154 points.

The US homebuilding data dropped significantly last month as construction across the Midwest recorded its biggest loss within a three-year period, which caused US Treasury yields to crash and has subsequently affected the performance of the US dollar. USD/JPY investors are also now monitoring the ongoing talks between US and Japan as this could leave hints with regards to the future direction of US trade policies under the very protectionist Trump administration. The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain under pressure if US Treasury yields continue its current downward trend. In addition, a flight to safety is also expected if the stock market exhibits another follow-through. Traders are then advised to continue monitoring for possible twists in earnings data which could dictate the price direction of the stock market. The recent plunge in IBM stocks at 5% as well as a very dismal earnings data could possibly affect today’s session.

For today’s session, investors are expected to react to the release of the most recent Fed Beige book, along with the US Treasury yields and stocks to be released prior to the Beige book data.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 24, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had a somewhat strong performance last week as the currency pair started out within its range and looked to consolidate. However, the pair only managed to break through the very tough resistance region of 1.3400 towards the end of the week, with the pair finally advancing towards 1.3500 points, which has been tagged several times as a highly crucial region since it has prevented the USD/CAD pair to make any significant progress in the past few months, with the bulls failing again and again to break through this range in spite of their various efforts. The rally of the USD/CAD pair was attributed partly to the USD’s strength after reports that the Trump administration is still very much interested in implementing a tax plan, with the said tax plan getting implemented possibly within this year. In addition, Trump could possibly outline the details of the corporate tax plan within the week and this could further boost the value of the USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair was also influenced by the recent drop in oil prices. Oil prices had started out as initially strong, but then eventually dropped after concerns on whether oil producers would still push through with the production cut deals as the market approaches the midyear. This then enabled the value of the USD/CAD pair to reach 1.3500 points where it is currently located.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its GDP data as well as retail sales data, while the US economy will be releasing its advanced GDP data. If the USD/CAD pair manages to breakthrough cleanly its current region, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly march towards 1.4000 points, although traders should be wary of a possible ranging and consolidation action.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The currency pair EURUSD breaks upwards towards its renewed highs in 2017 during the Monday opening. The upward momentum reached 1.0900 region and weakened afterward.

The spot became sluggish shortly after that event, falling to the level 1.0850.

Meanwhile, sellers attempted to regain the area but did not succeed because the handle was fully protected by the buyers.

Moreover, sellers continued to strive for the level in the morning. Resistance came in at 1.0900 mark, support approached the 1.0850 range.

According to forecasts, it is probable to consider downward movement near 1.0800 region. The euro is also possible to struggle to fill the gap for the next sessions. In case the buyers remained in control, it will direct the EUR/USD beside 1.0900.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The British currency became bearish even after it started with a positive stance. The major climb higher during the opening touching the mark 1.2835. But the upward impetus dwindled eventually.

Amid Asian trades, sellers began to drive the price downwards and sent the GBPUSD towards 1.280 level. The pair eyes some renewed bids within the range and successfully reversed its night losses during the middle of the day.

Moreover, the situation, in general, showed similar condition in the morning while the Cable remained to trade in sideways. Resistance is at 1.2900 region, support highlighted 1.2800 area.

Should the sellers break the 1.2800 mark and the support at 1.2700 will probably the next bearish target.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The AUDUSD is kept intact in the pressured area on Tuesday morning as the North Korean issues recurred. While investors have a light spirit due to high paying assets.

Moreover, traders felt slightly nervous on the back of White House invitation to the U.S Senate with regards on the briefing of N.Korea’s situation scheduled on Wednesday.

The flight-to-safety buying will send investors away from Australian Dollar which is one of the currency with high risk and will settle on gold and Japanese Yen which are considered safe haven assets.

Based on the daily swing chart, the main trend is descending. A move with .7610 will help the trend to edge higher. The closing on Monday ended up at .7568 which made a 50% level near .7576 resistance region. This was followed by .7600 and .7611 retracement levels.

Found in the downside is the immediate support .7541 which is a long-term Fibonacci level while .7525 short-term Fibonacci level is followed.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar surpassed the 1.3535 Resistance level up to 1.3560 level. This could further go up towards the next target at 1.3600 region. The short term support is progressing in an upward direction from 1.3223 level and it seems that this will persist for sometime. The major resistance level is positioned at 1.3410 and a break lower than the said level indicates the completion of the uptrend.

The pair declined in the beginning of Monday session but recovered after a hammer like candle is formed. The oil market sold off which then influenced the currency and followed through. The market keep /on trying to break higher than the 1.35 level towards the next target at 1.36 handle. It is anticipated that actions in the upper channel would result to a “buy and hold” condition and may not be favorable to sell this for now. Buyers could return in the market in instanced of near-term reversals with the current condition of the oil market.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese year broke higher in the beginning of Monday session maintaining the near term uptrend from 108.13 level. Investors were interested in ordering long yen as it is a safe haven that boosted the dollar to go up. If the pair continues to move within the trading range, this uptrend will most likely persist towards the next target at 112.00 region.

On the other hand, a clear break lower the the support area indicates completion of the uptrend at 110.57 mark and the continuation of the downtrend from 115.50 region. This could further go down towards the 108.13 support in the next retest.

A supportive candle opens buying opportunities since the market is inclined to move higher. Monitoring the short term charts would be the helpful to determined the support of buying pressure in the market and a break lower than the psychological levels would not be a good premonition.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile trading session last Monday although it managed to finish the session on a much higher note as investors reacted to the first round of the French national elections. However, the currency pair dropped slightly, an indication that investors were pretty much sure of the election results and were now moving towards other geopolitical events such as the North Korean issues and an impending shutdown in the US economy. The JPY could possibly resume its rally if concerns over geopolitical issues would increase over time. Meanwhile, the USD was also unable to stabilize itself due to a drop in Treasury yields and a very dismal US economic data.

As of the moment, the results of the French elections are showing that Macron could easily eclipse Le Pen in the second round of the elections, which is scheduled on May 7. The USD/JPY pair is not expected to make a significant reaction to the election unless Le Pen would be able to surpass Macron’s current lead in the elections. On the other hand, a looming government shutdown is expected from the US economy could possibly happen once the shutdown deadline of April 28 would fail to see the government passing enough legislations to ensure that certain branches of the government would not have to cease operating. Although the economy itself still has some back up funds which could ensure the economic stability of the country for several more months, this is not a good sign for the economy and investors are expected to act in accordance to this particular occurrence. Once this happens, then investors could possibly move towards safer assets such as the Japanese yen.

But the main focus of USD/JPY investors for this week are the events in North Korea, with the demand for safer assets expected to stay in place due to tensions created by the North Korean missile and nuclear program.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s action has been mainly dictated by the results of the first round of the French national elections, wherein Emmanuel Macron has been able to gain a significant headway against centrist candidate Marine Le Pen. As of late, Macron was able to gain a 20% lead against Le Pen, and this has been a very favorable occurrence as far as the market is concerned. The EUR/USD pair managed to break through its bearish trend last weekend and has commenced yesterday’s session by reaching an all-time high of 1.0919 points before settling to lower trading points.

If Macron manages to again win the second round of the French elections this coming May 7, then the eurozone currency could possibly breach higher levels and could hit 1.1300 points. However, this headway is still not enough to tone down market woes, and the final results of the elections would have to come out first before investor concerns would completely die down especially since the market is still somewhat reeling from geopolitical events which took a turn for the worse during the last minute, such as the Brexit referendum and Trump’s victory last year.

The German IFO Business Confidence data came out yesterday and clocked in its highest levels reached since 2011. This coming Thursday, the European Central Bank will be having a monetary policy meeting followed by a press conference immediately after. The central bank’s interest rates are expected to be maintained by ECB officials, although market players are expecting pointers on whether there will be possible adjustments on the central bank’s asset-buying mechanism.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The GBP/USD pair maintained its current consolidating trend and is now situated within the bottom rung of its trading range at 1.2775 points. The currency pair traded with a slightly bearish undertone for the third straight session and is still struggling to reach last week’s surge caused by Theresa May’s call for a snap election this coming June.

The USD’s recovery seems to be the only that is maintaining the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, especially since Trump’s proactive economic policies are now lending some much-needed support for the currency pair. This is why the majority of market investors are anticipating Trump’s large-scale tax cut policies which is set to be released within the week.

For today’s session, the UK economy is expected to release its UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data, while the US economy will be releasing the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index which could possibly be the main attraction of the NY session later today. In addition, the US will also be releasing its new home sales data, House Price Index or HPI, and Richmond Manufacturing Index data.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The general situation persists to manifest the same scene as of Tuesday. The British currency seems rangebound amid day trades. The price has already reached the band’s lower limit during the first part of the day and rebounded afterward.

The spot stalled having touched the range’s upper limit while technical indicators are in mixed signals.

Moreover, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) trailed lower while the RSI together with the MACD showed positive indications. Resistance entered 1.2900 level, support entered 1.2800 area.

A negative scenario is projected to take place. In case that the GBPUSD touched below the 1.2800 support region will trigger a downtrend in the near future.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Australian currency became negative yesterday. The AUDUSD surpassed the 0.7550 region during the first part of the day and resumed to trailed down near 0.7500 level.

The commodity-linked pair highlighted the mark amid late trades of Europe. While technical indicators showed a bearish trend. Resistance is seen at 0.7550, support lies at 0.7500 range

Furthermore, a daily close under 0.7500 mark would expose for attack the 0.7450 mark.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Euro against the British pound declined on Tuesday after it broke above the 0.85 level giving a bullish tone in the pair. Consequently, the market will try to push the price higher possibly towards the 0.86 handle. If the price breaks lower than the base of the hammer pattern formed during Monday session, this will reverse the trend and will become bearish as they try to recover. It is anticipated for the pair to have very high volatility which traders should be cautious of.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen dropped during Tuesday trading. There is significant support found at 140 level that could reverse the trend and for a massive green candle pattern. The market will try to break the price even higher up to 145 handle. The 140 level could now become the support of the pair. The pair is moving upwards that seems to be in a longer term. The British pound broke its psychological levels and which may last for some time.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The USD/JPY pair exhibited a significant rally during Tuesday’s trading session after it garnered enough strength to break through the 111.000 trading range. The USD/JPY pair will now try to break 112.000 points but then there are a lot of occurrences which could dampen the currency pair’s advance towards this particular range. Positions on the JPY have recently dropped as there are now beginnings of a bullish undertone in all the related currency pairs.

However, the resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is still undeniably strong, and this means that traders should be wary of putting their full confidence into the price action of the USD/JPY pair. Short-term corrections could be seen as an opportunity to buy into the pair, but traders are advised to go short with the Japanese yen as opposed to other currencies in addition to the US dollar.

Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 111.35 points, which could be a major selling point once the pair reaches 111.75 points.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The New Zealand Dollar was kept under pressured area on Wednesday. The price weakened during the night and stalled near the level 0.6900 in the late session of Europe. Meanwhile, technical indicators provided sell signals.

Resistance highlighted 0.6950 mark, support is at 0.6900 area.

As the drop in the NZD quotations was canceled, a stable growth came about and breakdown to the region 0.7050 for further indication of growth.

There are no significant releases from New Zealand as the pair will not experience any impact with regards to the exchange rate.

Inability to maintain 0.6900 would likely move the NZDUSD to continue its downward momentum through 0.6850.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar attempted to go higher but the 1.36 level stayed strong. Hence, the price would quite go down as the oil market surge. The 1.35 level becomes a significant support which would open more buying opportunities. However, if the price breaks higher than the latest high, this would translate the market into a buy and hold condition. It may not be favorable to order short this pair as it might go higher.
 
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