Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The price action of the USD/CAD pair during the previous session was mostly dictated by the Canadian retail sales data, which came out better than expected. However, one downside to this is that the positivity of the data was somewhat offset by the data last month, which was revised on a much lower level. This correction has then helped remove some of the pressure off of the currency pair and enabled it to move towards 1.3350 before finally settling at just under this particular range. The pair eventually dropped towards 1.3260 where it is currently situated.

The pair was met with a lot of buying and this has helped the pair to slowly recover towards 1.3300 points, and the correction in the country’s retail sales data enabled the pair to go even higher. The Canadian dollar has also weakened as a reaction to the repeated failed attempts of oil prices to recover from its recent slump, causing the USD/CAD pair to recover towards 1.3350 points and even surpassed this particular barrier.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the US economy aside from the oil inventory data, which is expected to affect the status of the CAD based on the currency’s previous price action. Expect the Canadian dollar to drop in value as a reaction to this particular data and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3400 points for the duration of today’s trading session.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.

The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.

However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.

However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.

There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 22, 2017

The loonie was able to gain enough strength in advance of the report of Canadian Retail Sales. Meanwhile, the broad-based weakening of the greens provided support for the major. Other than that, traders await for the speech to be made by Fed representatives on Thursday.

The USDCAD escaped from the consolidation period and ascended lower yesterday. Sellers made a gapped through 1.3330 in the first part of the day and continued to drive the spot down.

The major was able to maintain an ask tone in the noon.

As illustrated in the 4-hour chart, the price is positioned under 100-EMA. While 100 and 200-EMAs resumed increasing, the 50-EMA preserved bearish pattern.

Resistance reached 1.3330 level, support holds 1.3260 region.

The MACD histogram had a dipped which confirms strength towards the seller’s position. RSI advanced southwards.

A firm break under the 1.3330 handle would risk 1.3260.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 22, 2017

The British currency strengthened as the UK CPI in February exceeded expected results. On one side, the speech of BOE Gov. Carney was in focus yesterday.

The pound established an active stance in the earlier trades after an uncertain position held amid Asian hours. The price has seen spiked in the morning session of EU.

Buyers surpassed 1.2400 and made an advanced move afterwards. The upward momentum is losing its steam with a few pip under 1.2500 mark.

The 200 and 100-EMA resumed to move lower while 50-EMA remain to be in a bullish pattern and the major crossed upwards the 200-day moving averages noted in the 4-hour chart.

Resistance is at 1.2400, support lies at 1.2300.

The histogram grew less indicating a weak position of the buyers as well. RSI oscillator headed higher.

There still a possibility for an extension towards 1.2500. Should buyers collect enough strength to attain 1.2550 in the future.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: March 24, 2017

The New Zealand dollar preserved its position on the back of steady rate by RBNZ with a record low of 1.75%.

The NZDUSD lies within the narrow sideways channel yesterday. The price hovered in the middle marks of 0.7050 and 0.7025, it keep on moving up and down between the levels.

Based from the data presented of the 4-hour chart, the 100 and 50-EMAs remained below the 200-EMA, the 50-EMA further made an upward crossover the 100-EMA. While the 200 and 100-EMA retained its bearish pattern. The 50-day moving averages directed up.

Resistance hold 0.7050, support lies at 0.7000.

The MACD had moderately decreased indicating weak buyer’s position. The RSI is confined near the neutral zone.

We consider the possibility of the pair to reach 0.7100 in the immediate future.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 24, 2017

The British currency was able to gain strength on Thursday considering the strong report of Retail Sales.

Traders took the GBPUSD near 1.2500 level during the night as it moves closer the level. Bulls tried breaking again through the post-opening of London session, however, attempt remains unsuccessful.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price resumed developing well on top of the moving averages whereas the 100 and 50-EMAs drove upwards while 200-EMA appeared neutral.

Resistance came in at 1.2500, support entered 1.2400 mark.

The MACD retained its position indicating buyer’s strength. The RSI oscillator was confined in the overbought territory.

When the pair brings about consolidation over 1.2500, the next focus is 1.2600 resistance region.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 24, 2017

The results for German Consumer Confidence Survey showed downbeat figures which weighed on the single European currency. The greenbacks also softened as the vote for the Trumpcare bill is scheduled amid North American session. In addition to it, traders await for the speech of Janet Yellen joined with some Fed Reserve officials. While investors are hoping to obtain renewed hints with concerns for the possible action about Fed rate increase.

The EURUSD kept its position during morning trades on Thursday. The spot continued to move towards the ascending channel converging on its lower limit.

The EUR rebounded to the 1.0800 level and descended during EU morning session. As outlined in the 4-hour chart, the spot extends its development on top of the moving averages as the 100 and 50-EMA headed upwards while 200-EMA stayed neutral.

Resistance highlighted 1.0800, support pierced 1.0750 mark. Moreover, the MACD histogram weakened indicating a weak position for the buyers as well. RSI is considered neutral.

The current pull back is referred to the profit-taking involving the bulls. The euro could possibly slide through 1.0750 where we could find an upward trend line. The major might received an upwards rejection from the mentioned line.

In case the bulls were able to remain in the driver’s seat, the levels 1.0800 and 1.0850 are considered a competitive price for investors.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 24, 2017

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a sideways price action for the majority of yesterday’s session as the market awaited the results of the US healthcare bill’s impending votation. A lot of market players believe that this particular bill is essential to the Trump administration, although some are also speculating that the current administration might be in danger if the bill does not get the required quorum, however this is not how the issue is supposed to unravel.

The uncertainties surrounding the healthcare bill would be clarified by the fact that the Trump administration would nevertheless continue with its present ways regardless of how the healthcare bill pans out. The market had generally expected the bill to conclude to a vote yesterday and this has prompted the EUR/USD pair to remain within its tight-range trading but then the discussions and negotiations within the bill took longer than expected, and a vote could not be made yesterday. As such, the market is hoping that a vote would finally happen within today’s session regardless of the results of the said voting on the bill. Until then, the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain trading sideways as the market waits for the results of the said vote.

Fed member Evans will be speaking during the latter part of today’s trading session but this is not expected to make a significant dent in the USD’s price action. The fate of the US dollar is largely dependent on the results of the healthcare bill vote and if the bill does get passed, then this would mean good news for the dollar and could see the EUR/USD pair breaking the 1.0750 barrier and head towards 1.0700. Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair could possibly test the 1.0800-1.0830 barrier, where it might eventually push through.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 24, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continued its tight trading action during the previous session as it did with the past trading days. The currency pair is caught within a very cutthroat range of 1.3300-1.3400 point, where it shows no signs of breaking through anytime soon. The Canadian dollar is looking very weak as of late as oil prices remain under the $50 barrier. In addition, the Canadian economy is also showing absolutely no signs of imminent improvement, causing the Bank of Canada to have a somewhat levelheaded economic outlook for the country.

The USD also has a very dismal outlook as the US economy waits for the results of Trump’s healthcare bill. Trump’s new healthcare is part of the current administration’s plan to stamp out the previous administration’s Obamacare and therefore wield more authority into this particular sector while realizing one of Trump’s campaign proposals. However, the majority of Trump supporters are not too keen with regards to the passing of this particular bill, with the past few days being spent via long discussions and negotiations with regards to this particular issue.

The voting for Trump’s healthcare bill was supposed to come to a conclusion yesterday, but due to lack of significant support from the government this has eventually led to nothing but a series of prolonged discussions, prompting the administration to postpone the vote and hopefully commence the voting today, an influx of support notwithstanding. If the bill manages to get passed, then this could lend support to the US dollar. Aside from this bill, the Canadian economy will also be releasing its CPI data which is expected to impact the status of the USD/CAD pair.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 27, 2017

The 1.2500 barrier continues to be a very crucial barrier for the GBP/USD pair. A lot of analysts continue to say that unless the currency pair manages to break through this particular region, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly retreat to the 1.2100 region. This is one of the reasons why the pair’s bulls and bears are fighting it out within this region. Meanwhile, the Article 50 is expected to be invoked this coming March 29, and as based on the market stats, more traders are now piling up on the pair’s shorts as the market expects the currency pair to drop once the invocation commences. The high expectations from the market could possibly spell danger for the currency pair.

Since the market very rarely does what the market expects of it, the risk of a possible short squeeze in the markets could possibly be very bad news for the majority of currency traders. This is why it is very vital to wait and see first whether the currency pair would indeed manage to break through 1.2600 and take profit where it is already short. The data from UK last week has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the country’s economy, and this has heightened the risk for a possible upmove.

For this week, there are no major news releases from the UK economy while the US will be releasing its GDP data. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to undergo a lot of volatility this week especially with the invocation of Article 50 and the onset of month end flows.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 27, 2017

The USD/JPY pair retreated significantly during the previous week as investors relieved themselves of high-risk assets following a drop in US Treasury prior to the voting on the US healthcare bill last Thursday and Friday. Due to the said bill getting postponed already twice in a row, the USD/JPY pair weakened not because of the postponement of the said bill but because of large-scale investor uncertainties even before the voting on the bill even commenced. The USD/JPY closed down last week’s session at 111.306 after dropping by -1.16% or 1.310 points.

The Bank of Japan has recently released the minutes from their most current policy meeting, and here we see the central bank thumbing down suggestions of a possible hike in the economy’s 10-year government bond yields in order to match the projected gains in Treasury yields. Those who suggested this particular move stated that the central bank should instead focus on hitting its inflation rate target of 2%, which is a very hard task to do since Japan still has concerns regarding inflation expectations and overseas economies as seen in the BoJ minutes.

There are no major economic news releases as far as this week is concerned, with the market only expecting Tuesday’s consumer confidence data from the US and Thursday’s final GDP report. The USD is expected to exhibit some movements this week as a lot of Fed officials are expected to release statements, and the probability of a USD movement would increase if the said officials would talk about the current administration’s economic plans. However, the USD could be under pressure if Fed officials hint at a fewer rate hike frequency if Trump fails to carry out his proposals for fiscal spending and tax reform. This is why the USD/JPY pair would most likely be directed by the price action of the yields.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.

Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.

The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.

For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: March 29, 2017

The New Zealand dollar came in weaker before the speech of Janet Yellen on Tuesday, but its sluggish position was limited since the kiwi received support from the recovery in petroleum prices.

The NZD/USD kept intact under the level 0.7050 with a tight range. The major continuously weaken during the morning as the pair declined towards 0.7000. Traders were unable to drove the major below the mentioned region lacking strength to reverse its losses.

The NZ currency spent the day within the mark prior to the opening session of New York. The NZDUSD made a gap through 50-EMA lower and stayed on top of the 100-EMA based from 4-hour chart. Moreover, the 200-EMA preserve a bearish slope, 100-EMA seems neutral and 50-EMA turned upwards.

Resistance touched 0.7050 area, support reached 0.7000 mark.

The histogram stalled in the centerline. If the MACD entered the negative zone, it will signal increasing strength of sellers. However, when the indicator dive into the positive grounds, buyers will acquire the power to manage the market. The RSI oscillator stirred downwards.

The price focuses on a stable support near 0.7000 loss by which could possibly trigger weakening within the 0.6970 – 0.6950 ranges.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had a very dismal trading day yesterday as the currency pair surpassed 1.0800 points and reached 1.0700 where it would be most likely met by a lot of buying which means that the currency pair might receive additional support within this range. These string of events was enough to keep the EUR/USD pair under significant pressure for the rest of the trading day. The EUR/USD pair remained under downward pressure since yesterday was the scheduled invocation of Article 50, which is expected to have a long-term effect with regards to the status of the euro currency. However, as of now, there has been no change detected yet as far as the euro is concerned.

There were reports swirling around yesterday that the ECB’s message regarding the reasons behind the euro’s well bid was being subject to over-interpretations from market players. The European Central Bank had previously stated that the EU economy was slowly gaining an upward momentum and is slowly achieving the goals set by the ECB. The market took this as a hint of the start of the QE and which will be reduced by the ECB in the succeeding months. However, yesterday’s reports have shown that the central bank might not be so keen on the said QE and could only mean that the eurozone’s economic risks were tapering off. This led to a minimal sell in the euro which, along with the USD strength, helped propel the EUR/USD towards 1.0700 points.

However, buyers can start buying this currency pair once it actually hits 1.0700 since the heavy support within this range can lead to more buys in this region. For today’s session, there are no major economic data coming from the eurozone but the US will be releasing its GDP data and this is expected to paint a general picture of the current state of the US economy.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017

The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of 1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.

The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channel’s upper limit.

The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.

In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.

Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.

The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.

As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

The US dollar is positioned near its weekly highs on Tuesday but the bullish tone of German jobless rate stalled its advancement which offered another leg to the common European currency.

Furthermore, the price maintained a bearish sentiment last Friday, however, the bears did not hold its stance longer favoring the bull to reversed few of its ground.

The price bounced towards the area of 1.0675 amid Asian session on Friday. The EURUSD made a reversal to the mark 1.0700 throughout the European trades.

The 4-hour chart showed the EUR/USD cut through the 100-EMA downwards while 100 and 200-EMAs directed upwards, showing the 50-EMA to drove downwards.

Resistance was seen at 1.0700, support entered at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram grew less which indicates a sell signal. RSI indicator spent the day around the oversold territory, confirming a renewed higher move.

Forecasts say a move on top of the immediate resistance involves higher chance of testing the region 1.0750. Alternatively, a sell-off has a probability to occur towards mark 1.0650.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

The renewed figures of British Gross Domestic Product saddened the investors as it presented lower than expected results. The report stalled the current recovery which pushed the spot downwards.

The Cable started the day with a bullish tone. Traders successfully lead the price near the resistance level 1.2500 where the spot met new offers. The GBP/USD stirred away from the barrier in the mid-session of Asian hours and sustained a downward sentiment amid European trades.

The price moved close the mark 1.2450 in the middle part of the day in which the sterling lost its selling impetus.

The 4-hour chart pointed out the 50-EMA being tested by the major. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern, alongside the 200-EMA to appear neutral.

Resistance touched 1.2500, support entered 1.2400.

The MACD histogram increased indicating weak seller’s position. The RSI maintained its position within the neutral grounds.

The major is seen struggling with an aim to build towards the recovery gains. A break over the region 1.2500, the next focus would probably the 1.2600 mark.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

On Friday, the New Zealand currency was kept intact below the selling pressure on the back of the sluggish business confidence released by ANZ.

The suffering of kiwi extended its softening until Friday. The sellers ran out of steam despite maintaining the control and breaking under the level 0.7000. Moreover, they were able to drove the NZD/USD lower.

During the morning, the pair traded in a tight range, viewed in the middle points of 0.7000 and 0.6980.

According to the 4-hour chart, the spot crossed downwards to the 50-EMA and resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50 and 200-EMAs continued to move down while the 100-EMA steered higher.

Resistance touched the region 0.7000, support made an entry at 0.6950 mark.

The MACD weakened indicating strength for the sellers. In case the histogram stayed within the positive zone, the position of the buyers will strengthen. The RSI indicator is in the oversold levels.

The price was stuck in a range in order to get some steam used for further activities. There is a possibility of minor correction. Having broken the 0.7000, the radar will prompt 0.7050 level.
 
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