Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The U.S. dollars paired against the Canadian dollar surged on Tuesday’s trading. It moved passed the 1.31 handle, breaking the psychological levels. It seems that the this breakout will be followed by a reversal higher than the 1.32 level. This signals a bullish tone but traders should expect the trend to be choppy and harder to manage.

Looking below the chart, the price failed to break lower than the 1.2968 support level. Instead, it maintained its price within the trading range from 1.2968 to 1.3211 area. It is expected for the pair to continue to move back and forth within the said range in the next trading sessions.

The greenback rallied that aligned with the rise in oil market which is not common to occur. If the market is able to break higher than the 1.32 level, then the buying of the pair will continue.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar dropped on Tuesday’s session. Later on, a strong support was found close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to reverse the trend and form a hammer pattern. This signals a bullish tone with chances to break higher than the peak of the candle pattern formed towards the next target at 0.7250 level. This could further go up towards the 0.7350 level. Traders should also look out for the commodity markets which would influence the new Zealand dollar. The currency prices is relative to the commodity prices, as it goes up, the currency also moves higher.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Euro against the British pound dropped on Tuesday’s trading. It moved lower than the 0.85 handle after testing the 0.8450 level which has been a strong support in the past. If the price further declined lower than the base of the current trading range, it could reach the 0.83 level. The pair seems to proceed with sell off when it surges but this could still turn around, which the market should be cautious for.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Euro against the British pound dropped on Tuesday’s trading. It moved lower than the 0.85 handle after testing the 0.8450 level which has been a strong support in the past. If the price further declined lower than the base of the current trading range, it could reach the 0.83 level. The pair seems to proceed with sell off when it surges but this could still turn around, which the market should be cautious for.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

There is a high demand for riskier assets that pushed the USD/JPY pair to climb on Tuesday session. Also, the appreciation of dollar was influenced by a stiff sell-off in Euro because of increase in political worries.

Moreover, the stock market surged that influenced the Japanese yen higher because of the carry trade while the recent remarks of Fed officials drove the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The pair closed at 113.673, increased by 0.582 or +0.51%.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarks on Monday also significantly affected the next day trading. This was pushed further by the announcement of Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker saying the pending next rate hike on March.

U.S. economic data results for the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 53.9 in February, lower from the reported 55.6 in January and the expected result to be at 55.8.

The continued low borrowing rates made the San Francisco Fed President John Williams to have a dovish sentiment. Similar with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari comments saying the there is no need to rush and go for inflation right away.

The Japanese yen was also influenced by rise in political risk in Europe and excessive sell-off by Euro. The rhetorics of French candidates Marine Le Pen and Dutch candidate Geert Wilders prior to elections has influenced the market sentiment.

Gold investors also reacted to the latest Existing Home Sales data in U.S. trading. The data is predicted to give e a 5.55 million unit gain. On the other hand, the FOMC Member Powell is scheduled to give a speech today. The Fed minutes for February Monetary Policy meeting will also be released which is highly anticipated.

It is anticipated for the market to have high volatility with the release of major economic data and the decision from the monetary policy meeting and connect it with the remarks before the Congress of Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week. Investors will try to get hints on chances for the Fed rate hike on March. As of now, there is 17% chances for a rate hike in March while 47% in June regarding the Fed fund futures.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was somewhat tame during the first part of the trading session as the market awaited the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which contained information on the sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the international economy as well as their insights regarding the interest rate hike. The pair’s bias was obviously on the downside as the pair’s value briefly dropped below 1.0500 after consolidating but was able to recover its losses during the latter part of the trading session.

However, the FOMC meeting minutes turned out to be a huge disappointment for the majority of market players as the minutes did not contain the expected intensity of hawkishness after the Fed’s officials reiterated that although the central bank is keen on implementing a total of three rate hikes year, they still think that a March rate hike might not be feasible for the market just yet. As a result, the currency pair plummeted through 1.0550 points before settling to trade at just above this particular level.

Now that Fed officials have made it clear that a rate hike is not to be expected this coming March, the market is hopelessly clueless with regards to the actual timing of this particular interest rate hike, especially since some officials are saying that they are not completely ruling out the possibility of a March rate hike. But since the market is very averse to uncertainties such as this, the dollar is expected to continue weakening for the rest of the trading day. The US will be releasing its unemployment claims data today but is not expected to make a significant dent in the market’s lack of volatility.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 1, 2017

The consumer price index of France inched up, however, it was unable to meet the projected level. While Italy’s rate of inflation remained consistent despite the forecasts about its potential decline. Moreover, the jobless rate in Germany is expected to decrease as mentioned by analysts and the German’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is assumed to remain steady.

The single currency was not able to make some reversal on Monday. Buyers touched the 1.0631 region by which the spot eyed some renewed offers. The price turned back under the 1.0600 level and posted its session lows near 1.0567 area amid Asian session.

The EURUSD attempted to break the barrier in the European hours. The EUR made a slight recovery few of its losses during the night upon approaching 1.0600 in the mid-EU trades.

The price is close to the 50-EMA as it positioned in the neutral zone during the earlier trading while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern and the 200-EMA drove downwards.

Resistance settled at 1.0600, support plunge towards 1.0550.

The MACD is situated at the centerline. When the indicator pierced the positive region, the strength of the buyers will grow while an entry in the negative territory will signal sellers to dominate the market. The RSI appeared to be neutral.

Furthermore, bullish momentum is possible to reclaim. The next target of the pair is 1.0630. The EUR/USD may resume its ascending movement to 1.0650.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 1, 2017

The absence of news from the UK region was unable to provide support the British currency. Investors were bothered regarding the recent Scottish referendum. Traders on the other hand awaits for the remarks that Donald Trump will spoke in the Congress. The focus now is turned to the U.K Manufacturing PMI which is anticipated to be relatively lower compared with previous results.

The sterling nearly touched 1.2500 level last Monday but buyers were unable to surpass the 1.2475 region where they found resistance of the sellers. Sellers turned the price back towards 1.2400 and hold the spot below the pressured area throughout the European trades.

The GBP rebounded from the 200-EMA downwards and resumed its ascending trajectory, while the 100 and 50-EMAs took the descending pattern. Resistance hit 1.2500, support is at 1.2400.

MACD softened favoring added strength for the sellers. RSI is confined in the neutral zone.

The Cable could recover its strength by holding beyond the 1.2500 range.The next target of the bulls is 1.2567.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 1, 2017

The greenbacks were able to gain strength versus other commodity currencies. The growth occurred due to the decline in oil prices and the investor’s interest regarding the US President policy. The announcement of the Central Bank of Canada about the interest rate decision is much awaited. It is expected that the rate will continue to be at 0.50%.

The price has spiked near 1.3190 on Monday but the level seems difficult to deal with. After the USD reached the region, the upward impetus lost its momentum. The USDCAD is in a tight range close to the barrier amid European hours.

The price takes up the 50-EMA and lead the 200-EMA higher and the entire moving averages ascended as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The major resumed its advancement on top of the MAs eventually. Resistance touched 1.3190, support hit 1.3120.

The MACD strengthened which imposed a buy signal. The RSI is positioned in the overvalued zone which favors a downtrend.

The immediate focus is at 1.3120 support region. A gap within this mark will shift the attention towards 1.3050.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 1, 2017

The USD kicked off March on a very positive note after the US dollar was given a boost by some of the most unlikely sections, the source from which the USD gained its weakness. The market has been constantly skeptical with Trump’s policies ever since his inauguration, and this has put immense downward pressure on the value of the USD and has helped to keep the EUR/USD pair buoyant. The dollar was also unable to take hold of its own value since the majority of investors are not convinced with the overall viability of the US dollar.

However, the market eventually became used to Trump’s way of implementation and his policies as the year progresses and the stock market has also responded well to Trump’s latest implementations. Trump has recently announced yesterday that his administration will be executing large-scale tax cuts for corporations which will increase the competitiveness of US-based corporations in the international arena. In addition, the EUR/USD pair also decreased further after Trump announced his proposed guidelines for adding up the country’s infrastructure spending.

This, in addition to the market probability of a Fed rate hike this March increasing, has caused the US dollar to soar significantly across the board and has affected all major currencies in one way or another. For the EUR/USD, the pair’s value plummeted past 1.0600 points and is currently trading at 1.0550, with the outlook for currency pair looking very weak. If the USD continues brandishing its strength, then the currency pair might soon hit 1.0500 points. The US will be releasing its Manufacturing PMI data today, and the current trend for market is expected to be the recent strength of the US dollar.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 2, 2017

The positive GDP of Australia and strong data of China PMI provided support to Aussie which further prevents it from acquiring losses. The period of bullishness ended on Wednesday while the bullish spike wane having touched the 0.770 level. The AUD loosened its grip upon its gains as the Asian session closes.

Sellers failed to regain 0.7650 despite series of attempts. Upon reaching the region, the spot turned back on top of 0.7650 during the morning trades of Europe.

As presented in the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 100 and 50-EMAs, seeing the 50-EMA en route downwards, 100-EMA is in the neutral ground and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish bias.

Resistance is found at 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.

The MACD declined which favored strength for the sellers. RSI stayed in the neutral area.

The commodity-linked pair will resume its bearishness when the US dollar sustained its current flow. A close down under from the 0.7650 would likely risk the 0.7600 mark.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 2, 2017

The sterling softened following the bearish Manufacturing PMI of February while the market preferred wait-and-see mode for Construction PMI projected to keep steady rate.

The British currency moved near down the range on the back of fluctuations within the level 1.2500 - 1.2400 several weeks after. The sellers were able to gap the handle 1.2400 during the late trades in Tuesday, it further push the GBP downwards throughout the night. Nevertheless, the downward impetus faded in the earlier trading. Sellers successfully touched the 1.2344 by which the cable met some of its renewed bids that might save the buyers temporarily from possible losses.

Sellers resumed its gains during the latter part of the trading day. The spot remained to trade in the negative zone and highlighted 1.2300 region prior to the North American hours.

The major rebounded the 200-EMA lower and develop beyond the moving averages while the 100 and 50-EMAs descended as exhibited in the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the 50-EMAs made a downward crossover in the 200-EMA keeping its mild bullish tone. Resistance is at 1.2400, support holds 1.2300.

The MACD lost its steam which triggered strength for the sellers in return. The RSI stay around the oversold territory.

If the GBP/USD declined below the 1.2300 mark, it will prompt a downtrend shortly after.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 2, 2017

The investors were disappointed to the speech made by Trump in the Congress, as the US President did not mention further details regarding his infrastructure and tax reform plans. The Fed helped the greenbacks to recover from the sell-off which renewed hopes for the possible rate hike in March.

The recovery slowed down at 1.0627 level on Tuesday. The price took another direction and continued to plunge lower. Traders made a cut within 1.0600 during the Asian trades pushing the European currency downwards. The dollars bull take control of the opening of the EUR stocks and gapped the 1.0550 mark then drove the pair lower. Having reached 1.0536, the descending trajectory seems short-lived.

A renewed selling interest appeared prior to the opening of the New York session which pushed the price further down

The EURUSD lead the 50-EMA downwards and the price is placed under the moving averages as set out in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100-EMA headed by while 200-EMA appeared in the neutral zone. Resistance touched 1.0550, support sits in the 1.0500 mark.

The MACD is seen at the centerline. When the indicator approached the negative region, the strength of the sellers will increase. An entry through the positive territory will manage the overall market. RSI is close to the undervalued territory which confirms a renewed downtrend.

In case the price hovered down from 1.0550, the major could possibly extend towards 1.0500. A break under 1.0500 could revive support at 1.0450.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 2, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continues to be controlled by the pair’s bulls after the bulls managed to wrest control from the bears following several weeks’ worth of struggle. The bulls have now take complete control of the currency pair and its bears have become adversely affected by this move, something that has been predicted by analysts during the past few weeks.

The USD/CAD’s long streak of ranging and consolidation has initially kept prospective buyers at bay but now that the currency pair seems to have finally obtained some sense of direction after getting dominated by the bulls, buyers can now rest easy with regards to the movement of the USD/CAD. In addition, the US dollar has also exhibited a recent rally due to statements from the Fed that a March rate hike is highly possible, as well as Trump’s announcement that he will soon be implementing tax cuts and adding up the country’s spending on infrastructure.

The Bank of Canada released its rate statement yesterday and met market expectations of maintaining the current rate at 0.5%. Canada has recently been releasing a strong string of economic data, which is relatively good news for everyone except for those who expected the BoC’s statement to be more hawkish than present. The central bank reiterated that there are no expected rate hikes in the near future and focused on low working hours and wages. This has compelled the USD/CAD to drop down to 1.3300 points before settling at just under 1.3350 points. The Canadian GDP data will be released today as well as the US unemployment claims data, which are both expected to increase the pair’s volatility. But the USD/CAD is expected to remain afloat as the current trend would most likely be the USD rally.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair has recently been under severe pressure as a result of the real state of each currency starting to show through just like every start of a new month. A lot of analysts have been saying that the sterling pound might become the most adversely affected once the dollar rally sets in, but last week the GBP has still managed to save itself somewhat even though both the US and UK economy were faced with various economic and political uncertainties.

However, since the uncertainties surrounding the UK economy are expected to be more on the long-term side as compared with that of the US economy, the dollar’s rally would soon gain momentum long after the issues surrounding the US have vanished, and this is expected to have a significant effect on the stance of the GBP/USD pair. The market is now witnessing this phenomenon during the past days as the USD exhibited its newfound strength as an effect of Trump’s statements regarding tax cuts and the Federal Reserve’s announcement that a March rate hike is still being highly considered by the majority of Fed officials. This has caused the GBP/USD pair to shot down from 1.2400 down to 1.2300 and is now currently situated within the 1.2250-1.2300 barrier and would likely drop further in value, this, along with Scotland’s possible move of leaving the UK is bound to spell disaster for the state of the sterling pound.

The UK will be releasing its Manufacturing PMI data and the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data during today’s session, but the dollar rally is expected to be reverberating theme in the market, which means that the GBP/USD pair would most likely remain under pressure for the rest of today’s session.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 2, 2017

The USD continued its rallying streak during the previous trading session and this has created a highly adverse effect on the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair has decreased by over 100 pips and is now trading within the 1.0530 points and looks poised for a further drop in value. The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its weak trading stance for as long as the US dollar continues its rally.

The dollar strength has been initially triggered by Trump’s statement that his administration will soon be implementing tax cuts for corporations, but the Fed’s statement that an interest rate hike would most likely happen in March served as a catalysts for the dollar’s recent rally. If this comes into fruition, then the market expects the USD to expand its rallying streak and push down the value of the EUR/USD further.

This is why the market is now mainly focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement as well as its accompanying statements. This is good news especially for the dollar bulls, since they will be benefitting from this focus shift in the US economy. For today’s session, the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data but regardless of how this particular data comes out, the EUR/USD pair would still remain under pressure for the rest of the trading session. The EUR/USD currently has a very solid support barrier, but once the pair pushes way past this level then the EUR/USD
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2017

The GBP/USD pair went through its worst week since the beginning of the year as the pair suffered greatly from the dominance of the dollar strength over the market last week. Unlike the euro, which has somewhat managed to recover as last week came to a close, the British pound continues to remain under pressure and could possibly retreat further in the coming weeks as the USD consistently regains its momentum.

The GBP/USD suffered last week primarily due to month end currency flows and this has caused the currency pair to revert back to 1.2300, with the pair continuing to trade just under that barrier for the rest of last week. The USD retreated slightly after Yellen’s statement which further stoked the fires for a possible interest rate hike this month, but this brief weakness in the USD’s value was still not enough for the GBP/USD to increase in value. This is because the sterling pound has its own set of issues that it needs to fix and the currency is not hugely dependent on the value of the US dollar unlike other major currencies. From the Brexit process to a possible Scotland referendum, the GBP/USD pair might take a while before it can finally get back on its feet, and as such all moves pointing to the upper part of the chart should be seen as a sell opportunity.

For this week, the UK will be releasing its annual budget data while the US will be releasing its NFP data, both of which are expected to dominate the movement of the currency pair. The NFP report is expected to come in as highly positive which could put the GBP/USD pair under more pressure, thereby endangering the support region of 1.2200 points.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 7, 2017

The EUR/USD pair is currently unable to go beyond its barrier and has been resigned to making small steps backwards and forwards within its given barrier and still has no definite direction. The pair is expected to continue its ranging and consolidation movements until such time that the EUR/USD pair faces major issues towards the end of this week. A lot of economic and political factors are now wielding their influences over the pair, and the market believes that it might take a few days before the market finally focuses back on the fundamental factors of the EUR/USD pair.

The previous session saw the EUR/USD pair briefly climb towards the 1.0640 barrier and looked poised to go further upwards. However, towards the end of the session it was announced that one of the main contenders in the French national elections has decided to back out, thereby making it a lot easier for French candidate Le Pen to possibly win the said elections. Le Pen is considered as one of the most controversial candidates in the elections as she is a known critic of the EUR concept, and this announcement has caused the euro to fall back towards 1.0550 points. However, the resiliency of the euro has stopped the currency pair from creating further damage and is now floating at just over 1.0580. The market believes that the currency pair would continue to range and consolidate within the 1.0550-1.0650 barrier.

There are no major news releases coming from both the EU and the US for today and this is why the EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its ranging and consolidation movements for the rest of the trading day.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 7, 2017

The GBP/USD pair, just like the majority of currency pairs, spent the previous trading session in a ranging and consolidating manner. The main reason for this activity of most currency pairs is that these pairs are preparing themselves for the onslaught of volatility which could occur towards the end of the week, and this has caused the GBP/USD pair to get ensconced within a tight trading barrier for the rest of the previous trading session.

There were no major economic and political events which influenced the movement of the GBP/USD pair and this is why the currency pair was unable to go past the 1.2250-1.2300 barrier, with neither the bulls nor the bears managing to take control of the currency pair. However, the pair is expected to remain under pressure as the various Brexit-related concerns surrounding the UK continue to affect the stance of the currency pair. The sterling pound is also finding it very hard to recover from its recent losses since the bears almost always resort to selling off the sterling pound once a bounce appears in the direction of the pair.

There are no major economic data coming from both the UK and the US today, and this is why the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its ranging and consolidation with no definite sense of direction. The currency pair will continue to remain within its current tight trading barrier with a bearish undertone.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.

However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.

There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.
 
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