Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The Australian dollar declined on Monday’s trading session in a high volatility market. There seems to be a strong support found below with buying opportunities close to the 0.76 handle. The price moves in an uptrend which seems to be overextended for some time. The pullback may influenced a strong offer of the price for traders that are willing to buy. The Resistance level is seen at 0.7750 mark while current support level could further decline towards the 0.75 and lower.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The USDCAD was neutral amid Friday night trades. The Asian recovery slowed down overhead the level 1.3120. The greens tried to resume its gains but attempts failed. Renewed selling pressure affected the spot rebounding the price lower than 1.3120 during afternoon session.

The USD fall behind 1.3050 level prior to the opening of the New York hours.

According to the 4-hour chart, the rebounded the 50-EMA lower and tested the 100-day moving averages. The pair is confined under the 200 and 100-EMA throughout the day. The 100 and 50-EMAs is neutralize while 200-EMA moved lower as shown in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 1.3120, support entered 1.3050 region. The MACD histogram decreased which implied weak position for the buyers. RSI is confined in the overvalued territory near the neutral zone.

Bearish sentiment is expected to prevail. If the commodity-linked pair remained on top of the 1.3120 mark, sell order will be posted. The next possible target of the sellers is 1.3050.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The figures for the United Kingdom Industrial Production exceeded the expected results which further give a temporary support for the British currency. Nevertheless, the recovery of the greens is wide-ranging causing the GBPUSD to conduct a reversal.

The sterling preserved its neutral stance amid Asian session on Friday. The spot hovered on top of 1.2500 close to the handle.

Traders were able to surpass the region after the EU hours and continued to push the spot through 1.2450 area.

The 4-hour chart presented that the price drove 100 and 50-EMAs towards a lower point. The 50 and 200-EMAs seem neutral while the 100-day moving averages descended as seen in the aforesaid chart. Resistance touched 1.2500 mark, support lies at 1.2400.

MACD is placed in the centerline. An entry within the positive zone will provide added strength for the buyers while an attempt towards the negative territory will allow sellers to take over the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral region. Either a move lower than 1.2500 would help produce an opportunity to test 1.2400.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

Non-Farm Payrolls in France came in positive but the single European currency ignored these strong data. The euro was kept intact in the pressured area on the back of the increasing political instability relative to France’s Presidential election. Moreover, the imminent vote-casting within Germany, Italy, and Netherlands brought added pressure against the EUR. Meanwhile, the US dollar demand was supported by the tax reform proposal by Trump.

The greenbacks further strengthened on Friday while the euro weakened after a clear recovery at night amid EU session.

Traders surpass the 1.0650 level and drove the price downwards during the New York trades. The EUR/USD pushed the 200-day moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs were bearish-neutral while 200-EMA manifested a bullish bias in the aforesaid timeframe. Resistance is seen at 1.0650 region, support touched 1.0600 handle.

MACD indicator softened implying a sell signal. RSI is confined in the oversold territory, indicating a downtrend. Another lower movement is expected, reaching the 1.0600 mark. A close below the support region is possible to provide further weakening through 1.0550.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The GBP/USD pair merely continued its weak trading activity following the steady surge in the value of the USD, which started last Friday and has continued up until today’s session. Since the Brexit process has already been seen to put tremendous pressure on the sterling pound, traders have been consistently advised to engage in pound selloffs once the pair progresses since the currency pair might experience a slump in the short term.

This particular forecast has been during the past few weeks, where the GBP/USD pair has been relentlessly attempting to push through its upper barrier as a reaction to a string of positive economic data from the UK as well as some minor challenges such as the SC’s ruling on the Brexit process, and Theresa May’s release of her guidelines with regards to the Brexit process. These clarifications has helped increase the value of the sterling pound but dissipated almost immediately as Brexit concerns re-surged, and now we have the dollar strength which has put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair and has caused the pair to trade below 1.2500 points. Since the dollar strength is expected to continue for the rest of the week, the currency pair might possibly drop further to 1.2400 in the short term and could even reach 1.2300 depending on how the dollar’s activity pans out.

There are no major news releases coming from both the UK and the US for today and this is why the market is generally expecting the recent dollar trend to continue. The GBP/USD pair would most likely trade weakly but in a higher range unless the pair manages to go cleanly through 1.2700 points.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of pressure ever since the trading session last Friday up to today due to the US dollar regaining its strength and exhibiting this newfound strength across the board. This positive value of the USD is expected to continue for the rest of this week and the market is quite interested on how the currency pair will be coping with this recent surge in the US dollar’s value. Presently, the EUR/USD pair has been holding its own on the 1.0600 trading region and the bears have been making repeated attempts to break through this barrier but to no avail. However, the increase in the value of the USD has not direly affected the value of other major currencies but has been slowly but surely increasing and if this particular trend continues then the support barrier might be broken soon enough.

The dollar strength has been largely attributed to Trump’s statements that his administration will soon be implementing tax cuts for both corporations and citizens, which has been a cause for celebration within the market and has returned the Trump trade. The Fed is also hinting at increasing the frequency of the interest rate hikes this year by up to three times, and Yellen’s speech due tomorrow is expected to remain bullish on both the economic situation and the interest rate hikes.

There are no major economic data scheduled to be released for today from both the US and the European Union, so this means that the current trends would most likely to continue today, with the EUR/USD remaining under pressure for the rest of today’s session.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The USD/JPY pair increased in value due to a surge in the demand for high-risk assets during the trading session last Friday, however the currency pair eventually dropped in value as a result of a profit-taking phenomenon prior to the meeting between Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 113.164 points after dropping by -0.05% or 0.062 points. Moreover, the USD rallied as a result of Trump’s recent remarks with regards to tax reforms in the US, with Trump stating that his administration’s tax plans will be announced in the coming weeks.

Looking forward to today’s trading session, the USD/JPY pair’s movement will most likely be influenced by investor sentiment, and an increase in the demand for high-risk assets would lend significant support for the currency pair. For today’s session, the market will be anticipating the release of the Preliminary GDP report for the 4th quarter of 2016, where the market is expecting the data reading to come in at 0.3%. In addition, the previous reading is also expected to be cut down at 0.3% as well. China will also be releasing its Producer and Consumer inflation data which is expected to have an impact as well on the USD/JPY pair.

There are no major news releases from the US for today, but come Tuesday investors will be reacting to quite a handful of economic data from the region such as the PPI report and Fed chair Yellen’s two-day testimony will commence along with the release of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy report. This will be used by traders to look for clues with regards to the next Fed rate hike, while Wednesday will be the scheduled release of the CPI report from the US.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen rallied on Friday’s session. The price trend gives a bullish tone being tested at 142.50 level which will be balanced off when buyer pulls the price close to the 140 handle. This makes it more advantageous to go for long positions as seems to go uptrend for long-term. Consequently if the price breaks over the peak of the shooting star for the day, it is possible for the price to reach towards the 145 handle. It may not be favorable to sell this pair as British pound gives a long-term support level against the basket of currencies.

The pair is being traded with high volatility and recently the price has been reversed which is already expected as the price got lowered higher than the former. It may not advisable to go for short since the price could get even lower than 145 handle towards the 148.50 level. The buyers may dominate the market as the price continues to go deep. The Japanese yen has sold off against other currencies. There are potential risks in trading this pair as the pair might go higher, the same way with other currencies paired against the yen.

Overall, the pair gives a choppy sentiment with possibilities of big moves going in one direction as the market gives an impulsive reaction. It seems that the market wanted to reach higher but it remains in consolidation as the market is still trying to gain enough momentum to make a bigger move. However, if the price breaks down lower than the 130.50 level is not a good sign.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during Friday’s trading session but was able to recover. After the decline on Thursday session, it is not unexpected that the buyers will try to reach the price towards the 0.72 level. If the price breaks higher than the high point of the candle pattern, it is possible for the market to extend up to the 0.7350 mark for the second time. The market is seen to have a bullish tone for some time that makes the pullback attractive and beneficial of the price to traders. It may not be propitious to sell this pair for now.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The Euro against the British pound swung within its range during the day with candle pattern formed giving a negative tint. A significant support was found at 0.85 level but sellers are trying to move the price. The price could further go down when the price breaks lower than the 0.8450 level. However, if the price breaks higher than the range that was seen during Friday’s trading session, the market could reach the former levels. Overall, there will a rough trading in the market.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017

The strength of the USD is now felt more than ever in the market, and this has caused other major currencies to experience the negative effects of the surge in the dollar’s value. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair has dropped to 1.0600 points and was only able to prevent itself from further decreasing due to its support barrier of 1.0580 points. However, the pair’s price activity looks very dismal and it is uncertain how long the bulls would be able to keep its hold on the pair before the bears manage to seize control and push the pair further downward. If this happens, then this could spell disaster for the euro.

The market is now able to fully adjust to Trump’s policies after an initial unrest caused by his team’s adjustments to certain regulations, with the market now sure of the administration’s approach with regards to policies, thereby improving investor confidence in the US dollar. This has helped to shift the market’s focus from the Fed’s future moves and Trump’s future implementations as well, and this has further helped to support the USD especially now that the Federal Reserve is keen on sticking to its statement that there will be a total of three interest rate hikes for this year.

The US will be releasing its PPI data today, and Fed chair Yellen will be making statements with regards to the central bank’s monetary policies during today’s speech in the New York session. The market will be monitoring Yellen’s speech later today and if Yellen becomes consistently bullish in her remarks, then the euro could be in for more price drops.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017

The GBP/USD pair exhibited a tight trading activity during yesterday’s session as the USD’s value surge was felt across the market. However, this activity somewhat failed to make a dent in the value of the sterling pound. A lot of analysts have been saying during the past few days that the GBP is practically the only currency which has resisted the negative effects of the dollar strength in spite of the fact that it continues to be weak as a result of the Brexit process. This is because UK government officials have been working very hard to make the Brexit process clear for everyone, and any kind of certainty is very much welcomed by market traders and investors.

Another reason for the GBP/USD’s resistance against the strength of the dollar is the continuously positive string of economic data coming from UK which is an indicator that the country’s economy has not yet been affected by the repercussions of the Brexit process. This could also mean that both the UK economy and the sterling pound might even become better and stronger in the long term even when it finally relieves itself from the European Union. These speculations was able to maintain the GBP/USD pair’s position at 500 pips, with more ranging and consolidation expected to continue in the near future in spite of the dollar strength.

UK will be releasing its CPI data today and this will be closely monitored by the market whether this will come out as positive and affirm the country’s strong economic status. US will also be releasing its PPI data today and Yellen will be making a statement with regards to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, including economic status and interest rate hikes.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017
A lot of analysts have been saying that it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be subject to an increased amount of pressure as oil prices continue to stay afloat and the economic data coming from the Canadian region continues to be consistently positive, a signal that the country’s economy gets better everyday. The currency pair is expected to remain under pressure as long as the US dollar remains under control, and this also means that the pair’s bulls would need to consistently strive to maintain the support barrier at 1.3000 points. This activity has been seen during the past trading session as the pair was able to surpass the 1.3100 barrier and is now currently going towards 1.3050 points.
The USD/CAD bears were also helped by the fact that Trump and Trudeau’s meeting yesterday was quite cordial, with Trump clarifying that the shifts he will be making on trade agreements will not have that much of an effect towards Canada. This helped to support the Canadian dollar which tried to surpass the dollar strength but eventually failed as the USD consistently surged in value.
There are no major news releases coming from Canada to day but the US will be releasing its PPI data and Yellen will be making comments on the central bank’s future monetary policy as well as the current state of the US economy. If her comments come out as bullish, then the USD/CAD pair might move towards and could even surpass 1.3100 points.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 15, 2017

The USD/JPY pair surged in value on Tuesday as the demand for high-risk assets further increased among investors. The USD also became more attractive for investors as a result of an increase in Treasury yields. The USD/JPY pair finished off the last trading session at 114.249 points after increasing by 0.44% or 0.506 points. This increase in Treasury yields was further supported by Yellen’s remarks, after the Fed chair stated that it would be impractical to hold off the impending interest rate hikes by the central bank, especially in the face of burgeoning economic growth and inflation rates.

Today’s session is expected to be mostly driven by investor sentiments, with high demand for risky assets becoming the likely catalyst. Yellen will also be releasing a statement in Congress today, and the Fed chair is expected to offer more clarifications with regards to the guidelines and further details with regards to the Fed rate hike, with investors putting a 22% probability of an interest rate hike this coming March. The US will also be releasing a number of economic data today, such as the retail sales report and consumer inflation data. Accompanying these major reports are the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization data, and Industrial Production data.

Yellen’s statement today is expected to inject additional volatility into the currency pair, and if her comments come out as hawkish, then this could cause the USD/JPY pair to further increase in value. If Yellen refuses to confirm market speculations of a rate hike in March, then this could be used by investors to book their own profits.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The USD/CAD pair merely continued its current trend of ranging and consolidation as the currency pair waits for a definite direction to appear in the market. A recurring dollar strength has caused the currency pair to experience slight bounces and subsequent drops led to recurring drops in the currency pair as well, but the currency pair still has no definite path as the bulls and bears both have no catalyst whatsoever which could propel them to take hold of the USD/CAD pair.

The US released a slew of positive economic data yesterday but this was still not enough to induce significant movement in the USD/CAD pair. The pair continues to fail to surpass 1.3100 points and simply reverted back to 1.0360 points. There seems to be no major movement for the pair anytime soon, especially since analysts have been constantly saying that the pair would only experience a major trend change if it manages to break through its support barrier of 1.3000 points. The bulls have been trying to increase the pair’s momentum but has failed miserably due to the dollar weakness, thereby causing the pair to merely range and consolidate.

There are no major news releases coming from both US and Canada today and since the US market will be on a holiday this coming Monday, the pair would most likely continue its current trend.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The sterling pound has consistently been taking advantage of the dollar weakness during these past two days and was able to revert all of its losses during the start of the week. The GBP/USD pair is currently within a very large range and might continue its activity of repeatedly correcting and reverting in the short term. As of the moment, the currency pair has reverted but it is highly possible that a major selloff might occur soon, which will then send the currency pair back into the lower rung of its trading range.

The USD was unable to increase its value in spite of a slew of positive economic data coming from the region, including the latest manufacturing index data. In Trump’s latest speech, he failed to discuss his administration’s fiscal and economic policies, but this has done nothing to support the dollar. Even the recent comments from the Fed also failed to revitalize the dollar slump, and this has boded well for the GBP/USD pair, which immediately capitalized on the dollar weakness and has propelled the pair into becoming the strongest currency pair amidst the USD slump.

UK will be releasing its retail sales data today, and this is also expected to come in at a strong note which will lend further support to the sterling pound, and will continue the string of positive economic data coming from the UK in spite of the ongoing Brexit process.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The US dollar further dropped in value during the previous trading session in spite of a series of highly positive economic data coming from the region. This latest update in the activity of the USD has helped the EUR to regain its footing and reverse all of last week’s losses. The currency is now trading just below its previously support but now resistance barrier of 1.0680 points. However, since the US dollar is still trading in a fairly weak manner, the EUR/USD could possibly increase further in value in the coming weeks.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was released yesterday and had significantly exceeded market expectations after coming in at a whopping 43.3 reading when the expected reading was only at 18. This particular bit of data is the latest in the string of consecutively good readings from the region, but this has done nothing to increase the value somewhat of the USD. Aside from a series of highly positive reports coming from the region, the Federal Reserve has also hinted at the possibility of the central bank implementing up to 3 interest rate hikes this year, but again this has done nothing significant for the US dollar. One of the reasons behind this is that a lot of market players are still uncertain with regards to Trump’s very protectionist policies, and majority of them are concerned that Trump’s protectionism might have an adverse effect on their investments, which is why most of them are still very skeptical with regards to investing in the US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo more ranging and consolidation with a bullish bias as there are no major economic data expected from both the US and the European Union today. The New York session might experience an increased level of volatility since most traders will be squaring off their respective positions as preparation
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The positive figures from the labor market in Australia were ignored by the Australian currency. The report for employment in January showed neutral, the jobless rate grew less whereas the total number of part-time laborers rose while the total of full-time employees declines. Yesterday, the AUD/USD preserved an upward trajectory in the short-term. The AUD rallied on Wednesday and renewed its multi-month highs near 0.7732.

Investors agreed to support the Aussie and rebounded in the Asian trades on Thursday. The pair weakened in the interim of profit taking action and advance to 0.7700 level and tested it during the early session of Europe. The spot hovered within the aforesaid level.

The 4-hour chart presented the price bounced off to 50-EMA with an upward direction staying on top of the moving averages.The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs sustained a bullish sentiment as shown in the same timeframe. Resistance plunged in 0.7750, support lies at 0.7700.

The MACD histogram is on the upside. RSI settled around the overvalued territory.

Technicals posted a bullish bias. The AUDUSD is possible for gain resumption towards the mark 0.7750, heading 0.7800.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The British currency reversed minor part of its losses and returned to its session highs in spite of the unfavorable inflation coupled with the current trends in the labor market. The investors’ attention fixated on the release of retail sales data.

Sellers stalled upon meeting a hurdle at 1.2400 yesterday. The level declined the price and shortly spikes higher following the level testing. The sterling had a gradual growth amid Asian session and continued to track the upward trajectory during EU hours.

The cable tested the 1.2500 region on the onset of London trades, however, failed to break it. The 4-hour chart showed that the pair tested the 50-EMA, lead the 100-EMA upwards and rebounded in the 200-EMA. All moving averages established a bullish-neutral stance. Resistance is at 1.2500, support is found at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram is set at the centerline. If the indicator entered the positive zone, the buyers will procure further strength. While an entry towards the negative territory will imply sellers ability to gain the driver’s seat. RSI headed upwards after leaving the oversold area.

A sustained break on top of the 1.2500 mark is the recommended in order to resume the bullishness. In line with this, buyers have the tendency to take the price near 1.2600 but unable to do so may push the price back towards the downside.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The sterling pound continued its current ranging and consolidating trend within a tight range for the second straight week as the currency pair was virtually unaffected by the dollar’s activity. Both the US and the UK are undergoing a period of large-scale market uncertainty, with the various concerns surrounding the Trump administration and the onslaught of the Brexit process causing the currency pair to be in a deadlock and trade within a pip range of 400-500 during the past few weeks.

UK’s average earnings data and CPI data turned out to be somewhat dismal, but the effect of this data was offset by the release of the claimant count change data which had a very positive reading. This somewhat balanced feel of the UK data is one of the reasons why the sterling pound has maintained its current position in spite of the Brexit process with no signs of falling off soon. Fed Chair Yellen chose the middle ground of the US monetary policy during her statement last week but also said that there is a likely possibility that the central bank will be implementing a rate hike this coming March. The effect of this particular bit of news might have done the USD some good, but then again the US market had to suffer the effects of a very weak wages data in spite of a positive CPI and retail sales data, and this had a significant impact on the movement of the USD’s bulls. Luckily the GBP/USD pair was not that adversely affected and closed down last week’s session at just over 1.2400 points.

For this week, the UK will be releasing its GDP data and the Parliament will be starting to discuss Article 50 which signals the start of the actual Brexit process. This is not expected to deliver new data into the market, but this is expected to add more volatility as it gets passed through the Parliament.
 
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