Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The USD/CAD continued its tight-range trading as pair continues to fail to make any significant headway as both the bulls and the bears of the pair struggle to take control of the currency pair. During the past weeks, the bulls looked like they had total control of the pair as the pair’s price hovered over 1.3200 points, with very few corrections. However, this slowly changed as the weeks progressed and the pair now has to deal with immense pressure at its support barrier of 1.3000 points.

One of the reasons for this move in the USD/CAD pair is that the Canadian economy continues to release consistently positive strings of economic data, while the US continues to disappoint the market by releasing poor economic readings all throughout. The CPI data and retail sales data from the US was released last week, and although these two sets of data came out as fairly positive, it exhibited a very weak wages data and this did not sit well with the pair’s bulls. This, along with the fact that the market is still very uncertain with the current US administration and the unwillingness of investors to invest in the USD has led to a pronounced weakness in the US dollar.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its own set of CPI data and retail sales data, while the US will be releasing the minutes of the FOMC meeting, all of which are expected to induce significant volatility into the activity of the currency pair. If the data coming from the Canadian economy continues to be positive, then the pair bulls would be in trouble and the support barrier of 1.3000 points might very well snap. If this happens, then the USD/CAD pair’s trend could be in for some major trend changes.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.

Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.

For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday despite of the light market caused by the federal holiday, US President's Day. Investor’s attention were drawn towards the nation’s current political condition while expecting for the final resolution regarding the financial assistance to Greece.

The upward trajectory weakened on Friday. The single European currency failed to break the 1.0680 region and reverse.

During the Asian hours, the market is relatively quiet and exhibit further agility amid EU session. The demand for the greens were brought by some European traders which drove the spot downwards. The EUR steeply declined and tested 1.0650 mark during the post opening of EU trades. The aforesaid mark stalled the sellers’ action therefore rejected the EURUSD higher. The pair surpass the 200-EMA lower, rebounded the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA. Moreover, the 100 and 50-EMAs headed downwards and the 200-day moving averages appeared to be bullish-neutral. Resistance lies at 1.0700, support is seen at 1.0650.

The MACD indicator plunged to the positive territory and if it hovered within that area, the position of the buyers will reinforce. RSI is confined in the overvalued zone, favoring another downward trend.

The major struggled to proceed upwards. A break under 1.0600 region would consider further instability to 1.0550. Should the level jump up would signal an opportunity to buy on a dip.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017

The NZDUSD were kept below the pressured area and resumed its decline under the 0.7200 level on Friday. Having broke the level, sellers weakened and took a pause to regain some steam attempting to make another move downwards.

The major rebounded the 50-EMA towards a lower point as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The spot extended its development in the middle of 200 and 50-EMAs. The 50-EMA is trending lower, 100-EMA was neutralize and the 200-EMA moved higher. Resistance is at 0.7200, support lies at 0.7150.

MACD histogram lies at the centerpoint. If the indicator approach the positive zone, it will provide added strength for the buyers. While an entry in the negative territory will open an opportunity for the sellers to dominate the market. RSI escaped from the overvalued area and settled around the neutral region. Should the spot surpass the 0.7200 mark higher, will negate the medium-term negative outlook.

The bulls are able to drive the pair to 0.7250 handle. While a decline under 0.7150 will cause the support the sellers having chance to continue its slide through 0.7100.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017

The Australian dollar dipped during Friday session as investors tried to bring the pair up against the U.S. dollar. There isn’t much to see on the Australian and U.S. economic calendar on Friday as it came in a neutral condition as there is a 0.6% increase announced on the U.S. conference board for the month of January compared to that leading index gain of 0.5%.

Come Monday, there are no major events to wait from Australia while the U.S. banks are on a holiday. It is expected for the price trend to remain in lower than the average volume. However, traders should still be cautious on the possible volatility surge.

The main price trend is in the upper levels but there is insufficient momentum as the pair close on Thursday with a price reversal and was repeated the following day. However, price leveled at .7732 will counter the closing price turn around and implies the continuity of the uptrend.

The near-term range is set between .7511 and .7732 with the retracement zone from .7621 to .7595 levels as the next lower target aiming to close the price reversal top chart pattern. Nevertheless, with the current uptrend, it is not far for the buyers to be active again to test the said psychological levels.

After closing at .7664 on Friday, the price trend for today will depend on the market sentiment with the uptrend angle of .7671 level. If the price maintained lower than the .7671 level implying the strengthening of sellers. The daily chart is inclined go downhill and seems to go lower towards the next target at the short-term 50% of .7621. However, if the market was not able to sustain then selling may expand to .7595 and .7591 level.

Traders should look out for an uptrend bias steadily moving over the .7671 level while a downside trend below the .7652 mark. A breakout and a retained move over the .7671 mark signals the presence of buyers. This could push the price towards the next downtrend angle at .7692 level followed by .7712 and and the last possible resistance at .7722 downtrend angles before peak at .7732 level.
 
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The market reacted to the results of the labor report as investors closed on lows for the Australian dollar last Friday’s session. This was further dragged down by the rebound of the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the selling still performs well as it reaches the three-month high despite the price performing weak below the .7700 level. The pair closed at .7664 level, declined by -0.60% or 0.0046 level.

The released job report on Thursday gave a positive outlook with high number of jobs produced more than expected for the month of January. A total of 13,500 jobs were given, exceeding the expectation number at 10,000. At the same time, this indicates signs of recovery after a slide in the economic growth during third quarter last year.The unemployment rate increased by 5.7 percent, although itr is still less than the 5.8 percent assumption.

However, if you breakdown the output, the numbers were not exceedingly high compared to the headline number. Although, it can be noted that the part-time number has outshined the full-time jobs gaining 129,800 part-timers compared to last year’s figure while 40,100 for full time workers. This can be quite problematic for the economy.

On Friday, the U.S. Conference Board’s Index has been released that exceeded the expectation of 0.6% which is slightly higher than the 0.5% estimate.

It is expected for trading to on minimal with low volume and volatility as the U.S. banks are on holiday today. However, both the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes and U.S. Federal Reserve should be out soon Markets are not focused and not worried on the U.S. interest rate in March. If the market reacted to major events today, this is brought by the activity in the equity market and concerns in the French election.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The Canadian dollar remained to be influenced by economic releases and that includes the dynamics of oil prices, the difference between the policies of the Fed and Bank of Canada. The pair consolidated in a narrow range under 1.3120 barrier on the back of the unsuccessful recovery within the mentioned predetermined level.

The price pushes lower around the range during the Asian session and reverses its entire losses amid EU hours. The price met a modest support at the 100-EMA. The 200 and 50-EMA proceeded southwards while the 100-day moving averages is flat. Resistance came in at 1.3120, support hit 1.3050.

The MACD histogram touched the centerline. If the indicator approach the positive area, it applies added strength for the buyers. While an entry towards the negative territory suggests sellers ability to dominate the market. RSI stayed in the neutral zone.

The trader's focus is in the 1.3050 support level while advancing the level will shift attention towards 1.3000.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The GBPUSD spiked and reversed yesterday most of its losses acquired from Friday trades. The sterling gained further strength on the back of dollar weakening plus the light trading in the stock market as the US public holiday took place. Meanwhile, the Industrial Trends Survey showed positive figures in supporting the pound. Later this day, the speech of BoE Governor, Mark Carney were highly anticipated.

The overall market was controlled by the sellers and the GBPUSD are still in the consolidation process in the middle of 1.2400 - 1.2600 marks throughout the Monday session.

The renewed buying interest within the 1.2400 level supported the bulls to recover from the sell-off happened last Friday. The price spiked towards 1.2476 where an advancement further slowed down. The 4-hour chart presented the price lies between the 50 and 200-EMAs throughout the day. Moreover, the 100 and 50-EMAs remained to move lower while 200-EMA seems bullish. Resistance touched 1.2500, support holds 1.2400.

The MACD indicator increased which identified weak stance for sellers. The RSI kept pointing to the neutral zone. In case that the bullish signal sticks around, it open doors for the cable to regain 1.2500. Subsequent to breakout around 1.2500 region, the spot can test the 1.2544 handle. On one side, the ongoing selling pressure could drive the major under 1.2400, en route 1.2340.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The single European currency suffered from losses on Friday and needs some renewed drive in order to reverse it. The euro is possible to weaken due to the impending French presidential elections. The investors’ attention were fixated to the Manufacturing PMI of Germany projected with lower figures.

The EURUSD instilled in the hands of the sellers on Monday. The pair further trades within the green zone during the first half of the day even though the major manifested a negative stance in general.

The Euro buyers recovered by mark 1.0600 but rejected the spot higher. The EUR highlighted 1.0630 region where the reversal failed to complete its rally. As indicated in the 4-hour chart the price will test the 50-EMA and it continued to cross downwards the 200-EMA.

Moreover, the 50 and 100-EMA moved southwards while 200-day moving averages headed upwards outlined in the same timeframe. Resistance settled at 1.0650 level, support seen at 1.0600. The MACD histogram pierced towards the centerline. An entry towards the negative territory will suggest increasing strength for the sellers. While a run through the positive area enables the buyers to drive the market. RSI exist in the neutral zone.

A daily close on top of the 1.0650 handle will produce fresh bullish bias and could advance to the 1.0700 range. Should the sellers’ attack at 1.0600 after an unsuccessful move.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 21, 2017

The USD/CAD has finally managed to make a breakthrough after a long period of stagnation. The currency pair has previously went through a period of ranging and consolidation as the pair waits for a significant event which will pull the pair out of its rut. Now, with the dollar finally strengthening after a long slump, the USD/CAD pair has propelled itself towards 1.3100 and even went over this range and has now started to regain its bullish undertones.

However, the pair’s bulls cannot relax now that the USD/CAD pair is finally active again, since the currency pair could drop down anytime as the USD’s strength is not yet stable while it is currently in the higher levels of its range. The market is also anticipating the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow, with the market expecting that the minutes would be majorly hawkish just like the hawkish comments coming from Fed officials in the past week. In addition, an interest rate hike this coming March might also be apparent, and the bulls are expected to dominate the USD/CAD pair in the short term and medium term, and an uptrend might possibly occur in this pair.

There are no major news releases coming from both the US and Canada today, so the current trend of USD strength would most likely continue today as the market monitors the release of the FOMC minutes. This is expected to keep the USD/CAD pair in line.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 21, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues its tight trading activity yesterday but is still not poised for any kind of bullish move in the near future. The market was relatively slow yesterday due to a market holiday in the US, and this has only further augmented the current consolidation of the sterling pound. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2450 points and the pair is expected to remain weak for the rest of the sessions as the market starts reeling from the effect of the recent increase in the USD’s value.

As the FOMC minutes are expected to come in tomorrow, the market is expecting a very hawkish statement from the Fed and its officials are expected to have comments which are in line with the forthcoming minutes. Yellen and her team are stating the possibility of a Fed rate hike this coming March, and if the Fed makes good on its promise to confirm a total of three rate hikes this year, then this will be very bullish for the dollar and the USD might finally be able to relieve itself from its tight trading barriers and become bullish all throughout. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair is expected to feel the repercussions of the impending debates on Article 50 since this signals the start of the actual Brexit process. There are a lot of uncertainties surrounding this issue, and these are expected to put significant pressure on the sterling pound no matter what happens to the US dollar.

UK will be releasing its inflation report hearings today, and this particular piece of data will be closely monitored by the market as this will be an indicator of the overall state of the UK economy. There are no major data expected to come out from the US economy as the market is gearing up for the FOMC minutes tomorrow.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 21, 2017

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session as the USD’s strength returned a bit as the market awaits the release of the FOMC meeting sometime this week. But then the surge in the dollar strength was still somewhat within the pair’s control and this caused the currency pair to trade through 1.0600 points before finally settling at just over 1.0580 points, where its outlook continues to look very weak.

Yesterday was a market holiday in the US market, and this is why the movements of the majority of currency pairs were somewhat restricted as compared to the previous sessions. In general, the market was very dull and lackluster yesterday since there were no major news releases that came out as it was just the start of the week. However, today showed a spike in market activity as the renewed dollar strength reverberated throughout the market, and traders are now preparing for the expected volatility once the FOMC minutes gets released tomorrow. The market is expecting the minutes to be highly bullish, with majority of the Fed officials expected to confirm market speculations of a Fed rate hike this coming March. If these pointers are not met, then the market would be in for some major disappointments.

There are a couple of Fed officials expected to give out comments for today but aside from that there are no major releases expected from both the European Union and US for today. Thus, the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its current trend of consolidation with a bearish undertone. The pair’s support barrier at 1.0580 points might also experience some severe downward pressure, and a break through this barrier could cause the pair to reach down to 1.0500 points.
 
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The market for the cross currency pair EUR/JPY waits for the next uptrend towards the 123.67 level with the first resistance came in at 120.65 level. Traders are trying to break above the 121.28 level which would open the uptrend toward the next target at 123.67 level. It is possible to find a support at 119.90 mark for a short-term to prevent from going down. However, if the price breaks lower than the said support level at 119.58 implying that a red wave follows through.

The Resistance level is seen at 121.28 then 120.65 to 120.39 with the pivot turn at 120.20 level while the support level came in at 119.90 down to 119.79 and lastly to 119.58 mark.

Trading long with the Euro is advisable at 120.00 with a stop positioned at 119.25. Alternatively, a break higher than the 120.65 or 121.28 is best for near-term orders with the same stop at 119.25 mark.
 
EUR/NZD Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The Euro against the New Zealand dollar broke higher than the resistance level at1.4866 level. This confirms the long-term trades at 1.4495 while a fresh high began unexpectedly in wave 3. Traders should look for the next target at 1.5282 and 1.5516 level. The said levels could move towards the 1.5836 that would set as a substantial resistance if the market breaks higher than the 1.4866 mark.

The resistance levels were found at 1.5000 then 1.4945 to 1.4866 with the pivot point at 1.4800. On the other hand, the support levels were found at 1.4745 followed by 1.4675 down to 1.4620 mark.

It is good to position long for Euro at 1.4844 with an automatic stop at 1.4490 but if you are looking for a near-term trade, it is best to wait for the price to break higher than the 1.4866 with the same stop at 1.4490 mark.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 21, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar closed with minimal trading on Monday session. There is lower than the average volume because of the bank holiday in U.S. Added to this is the reluctance of traders to position trades due to the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The price trend is proceeds upward as shown in the daily chart. Its price range is between .7511 and .7732 zone. Although it changed direction and about to go down with signs of bearish closing reversal top at .7732 level seen last Thursday which was verified on Friday. The price at .7732 level will counter the price reversal top indicating extension of the uptrend towards the next target at .7777 level. If the near-term correction persists with the retracement level between .7621 and .7595 as the principal lower target.

The pair closed at .7687 level on Monday's trading while today's session will depend on the market sentiment towards the upward angle at .7681 while the downward angle at .7672 level.

If the market was able to maintain over the .7681 level signalling the dominance of buyers. This could test the pair and further increase the momentum towards the downtrend levels at .7702 and .7717. It is the last potential angle before it reaches the .7732 peak. On the other hand, if the price stayed below the .7672 implying the sellers leading the market. The pair is open to further go down and propel downward toward the next target at .7621 level.

Traders should looks out for an uptrend bias at .7681 and a downtrend towards the .7672 and below.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Aussie declined following the broad-based US dollar’s strengthening. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia weighed on the Australian dollar after the regulator decided to keep a steady monetary policy where its major targets correspond with the GDP and inflation.

The AUDUSD develop below the fresh selling pressure yesterday. The reserval within 0.7650 seems short-lived, reaching 0.7700 level. The price bounced back to the resistance during the Asian hours, favoring a downward trend. The spot touched 0.7650 region in the late session of Europe.

The price leading the 50-EMA downwards is exhibited in the 4-hour chart, as it further reached the 100-EMA eventually. All moving averages ascended. The resistance settled near 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.

MACD histogram touched the centerline. An entry within the negative zone will provide more strength for the sellers. When the indicator return to the positive territory, it enable buyers to regulate the market. RSI still sits around the neutral area.

A daily close under 0.7650 region could bring risk to 0.7600. Failure to surpass the region would assist the AUD to ease the ongoing downward pressure. The price is possible to rebound 0.7700.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The US Treasury bond yields grew and the greens reinforced. The focus is now on the upcoming Fed meeting. Moreover, the bearishness continues on Tuesday. The reversal halted below 1.2500 level by which the bear retake the control in leading the spot lower. The sterling came in red on Tuesday.

Sellers continuously pushed the price over the night. The European markets carried renewed selling interest which stimulated the pair’s decline. The Cable highlighted 1.2400 region in post-opening of London session.

The 4-hour chart displayed that the price bounced back to the 50-EMA through a lower area and tested 200-day moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMA headed downwards while the 200-EMA is flat. Resistance is at 1.2500, support pierced 1.2400 area.

MACD indicator weakened implying a sell signal. RSI is confined in the neutral zone. In case the ask tone insist a break under the 1.2400 handle, there opens an opportunity to settle at 1.2300.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The U.S dollar gained strength versus its major rivals on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the German Manufacturing PMI showed positive figures but the euro pay no attention regarding this report. The single European currency is kept below the pressured area despite the rising concerns about Marine Le Pen’s possible victory in the elections that could threaten the integrity of euro area.

The EURUSD move downwards as it pushed by the bid tone around the greenbacks yesterday. The EUR found a downside pressure and resumed its Monday losses amid Asian trades. The major extended its slide in the EU session. Moreover, the pair tested the level 1.0550 in the middle of European hours. The mentioned level stalled the development of the sellers tightening its grip to the price within the region.

The price bounced off the 100 and 50-EMAs lower while 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern based on the plot of 4-hour chart. The price further develops under the moving averages. Resistance is found 1.0600, support sits in at 1.0500.

The MACD indicator settled the negative territory, upon maintaining a position in the negative zone, the sellers’ stance will bolster. RSI entered the oversold zone, favoring a fresh downtrend. A clear break under the mark 1.0500 would signal about the onset of a move through 1.0400 or else the price would rebound towards 1.0550, en route 1.0600.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened.

However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend.

UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

The USD/CAD has still managed to keep itself afloat in spite of a small increase in oil prices during the previous trading session. The currency pair continued to trade within its ranges, but this could be a cause for celebration of the pair’s bulls as the USD/CAD traded within its range highs with no hints of weakness whatsoever. This movement was also partly due to the recent surge in the dollar’s value which ensured support for the pair’s bulls.

As of this morning, the USD/CAD has somewhat weakened in stance and spent most of the session consolidating within its range highs with no actual direction. The USD/CAD bulls are now monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes, whose hawkish outlook might possibly lend some much-needed support for the pair and finally create some sense of direction. If the minutes are able to meet market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly move towards 1.3200 and could even go beyond this range.

For today’s session, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released as well as the release of the US housing data. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy will be releasing its core retail sales data which will have to be closely watched by the USD/CAD bears in order for them to regain dominance over the currency pair.
 
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