Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.

Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.

The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.
 
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: March 8, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Swiss Francs continues to rally from 0.9860 as the intraday sentiment maintained in the upper channel as it tested on 1.0342 Resistance level. However for a medium term trend, traders should be careful to top closed to 1.0342 mark. In the lower channel it broke at 1.0008 level that implies a completion of the rally from 0.9860 mark which will be reversed to the downside for 0.9860 region.


It seems that the pair will maintained its medium term lateral pattern. A clear break to the resistance of 1.0342 mark signifies the strength of this level. Contradictingly, the pair will maintain its neutral stance. If the pair continues to fall down, the next support level would from 0.9443 up to 0.9548 zone. A strong break at 1.0342 mark with the target of 38.2% retracement level of 1.8305 then 0.7065 to 1.1359 area.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017

The Canadian dollar was able to preserve its stance compared with the US dollar yesterday. The loonie received some support from the positive figures of Trade Balance a few days ago. Investors wait with expectation for the statistics of US labor market which could establish a route for the USD/CAD.

The pair was trading flat and toggled in the middle of the Wednesday night session. The price is positioned in tight channels of 1.3400 - 1.3430 all throughout the night.

Moreover, the USD resumed its short-term bullish trajectory during the earlier trades. The major further pulled out from the 1.3400 region and rallied higher heading to 1.3470.

As rolled out from the 4-hour chart, the price was developing beyond the moving averages. It further mentioned the 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern while 200-EMA move over the neutral grounds. Resistance touched 1.3470 mark, support hit 1.3400.

The MACD histogram is positioned within the same level confirming buyer’s strength. RSI oscillator hovered near the overbought readings and expected to support a fresh upward movement

The bullish market structure is expected to remain in its place in the short-term. Bulls’ next target is at 1.3470.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017

The trend of EURUSD made little changes prior to the onset of ECB monetary policy meeting. The German Industrial Production came in green which provided minor support for the European currency.

The bears continued to dominate the market on Wednesday. During the whole night of trading, the sellers persist in pushing the major lower and touching 1.0550 level in the earlier trades. While European traders struggled to break the mentioned handle.

The 4-hour chart showed the pair cut through the 50-EMA towards a lower point. The timeframe also outlined the price was situated under the moving averages and directed downwards.

Resistances landed at 1.0600, support is at 1.0500.

The MACD histogram has its seat in the centerline. An entry towards the negative zone will signal increasing strength for the sellers. The positive territory, on the other side, will indicate buyer’s control within the market. RSI hovered around the neutral territory.

Any action under the 1.0550 region would trigger bearishness to 1.0500 mark.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 10, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continued its ranging and consolidation manner without any visible signs of weakness in the pair. The USD had previously weakened slightly against its other peers but has managed to maintain its current stance against the Canadian dollar which is good news for the bulls. Oil prices have been relatively stable during the past trading day, which means that the Canadian dollar has also remained stable and has resulted into a sort of deadlock for the USD/CAD pair.

However, it is important to note that the USD/CAD pair has recently been in a tight trading barrier near 1.3500 points during the past two sessions, the same region which the currency pair has consistently failed to break through during the previous couple of months. The bulls have become very wary of this barrier since this has caused them to drop down by over 500 pips and the majority of the bulls would not want to be caught within this barrier again. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair is expecting for a very strong NFP report, as well as a higher USD value as a reaction to the said report. In addition, the March rate hike is also pretty much in the bag and the ADP employment report is also expected to come in as highly positive.

Aside from the NFP report set to be released today, the market will also be anticipating the release of the Canadian employment data. The bulls are advised to remain at the sidelines of this pricing barrier until such time that the activity clears and becomes safe enough for more trading.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 10, 2016

The GBP/USD pair did not exhibit that much activity yesterday as compared to the EUR/USD pair, with the euro taking mostly of the spotlight and the sterling pound merely benefitting from the action taking place within the euro. However, in spite of the pair’s lack of action, the GBP/USD pair was able to rise from its bottom rung and has managed to create some modicum of strength for itself.

The GBP/USD pair was previously consolidating within its lows of 1.2100 points and looked none for the worse, but since the USD had an ambiguous trading day yesterday as well as the euro, this has helped the sterling pound to rise towards 1.2150 and went close to breaking through 1.2200 before finally settling at just under that particular range. The GBP/USD pair had a very positive close during the previous session but the pound is not yet out of danger as the NFP is scheduled to be released today, with the NFP report expected to cough up some very positive numbers. This might then cause the pound to bounce slightly which could be met by a lot of selling, thereby making the bulls somewhat wary of investing into the currency pair.

Although the UK will be releasing its manufacturing data later today, this data would most likely be dwarfed by the NFP report. The support levels for the pair could possibly come in at 1.2100 while the resistance barrier for the pair could possibly be at 1.2200 points. If the pair manages to surpass 1.2200 after the release of the NFP report, then the currency pair could possibly be subject to added pressure in the coming days.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 10, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was again met by a reversion coming from the pair’s strong support barrier. However, this was not anymore due to the movement of the USD, since the bounce has been mostly attributed to the impending release of the NFP report. The 1.0500 region has consistently remained solid as the pair’s support barrier, and now that the NFP report has affected the course of the currency pair, the pair’s bulls have now become confused, especially since most of them do not want to show their strength before the NFP report comes out if ever the report falls short of market expectations.

During the past weeks, the EUR/USD pair has been has been shooting up and down due to the volatility of the USD, with the euro as the currency’s docile partner. However, the situation yesterday turned out to be slightly different as the ECB rate announcement and press conference took place. The ECB maintained its current rates but ECB Chair Mario Draghi came out as very hawkish during the succeeding press conference, with Draghi having absolutely no qualms with regards to the current state of the European economy. In his conference, Draghi highlighted that EU employment rates were finally perking up, and the expected concerns within the EU economy failed to materialize, and this has triggered the EUR/USD pair to move up towards 1.0600 from 1.0500 points and is currently trading at just under 1.0600 points. The currency pair’s stance might have been much higher were it not for the impending release of the NFP report and the ADP report which is scheduled to be released next Wednesday.

The market will now be solely focusing on the release of the NFP report today. Market expectations for the report are now higher than ever due to a positive ADP employment report. Aside from the NFP, the market is also placing its bets on a possible rate hike due next week, and the EUR/USD pair should be able to have a strong support barrier at 1.0500 and a resistance barrier at 1.0700 in case the data falls short of market expectations.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 10, 2017

The European currency was at the center of attraction in consideration of the ECB meeting held yesterday. Investors predicted that regulators would keep the rate steady and deemed that the central bank will not deal with some uncertainties within the European elections.

Sellers successfully drove the price lower at night. Having posted its daily low near 1.0524, the EURUSD made a reversal of its direction. The minor dollar retracement initiated a move for profit-taking on the back of the sell-off currently occurred involving the pair.

Buyers, on the other side, lead the price towards 1.0550 during earlier trades and gapped the mentioned region amid late EU session.

The 4-hour chart identified the price was under the moving averages and these MAs moved downwards. Resistance came in at 1.0600, support touched 1.0550.

The MACD is positioned around the negative zone. In case the histogram remained within that territory, the position of the seller will reinforce. Moreover, the RSI indicator moves close to the undervalued area, supporting a higher move.

According to forecast, the major hovered in the descending channel and the EUR was kept intact in the pressured area. A close below the 1.0550 level would prompt the pair to continue its declines to 1.0500 mark.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 10, 2017

Despite the strength imposed by the US dollar, the Australian currency weakened on the back of the negative inflation data of China.

The downbeat sentiment of the market continued until yesterday. The sellers continued to be in the driver’s seat and moved downwards. They shifted slowly during the Asian hours and gained momentum in earlier trades.

The Aussie was able to touch 0.7500 level amid post open of Europe. The major resumed its expansion on top of the moving averages, hence all MAs pointed lower as mentioned in the 4-hour chart. The timeframe further outlined the 50-EMA under the 100-EMA crossing the 200-EMA towards a lower point. Resistance entered 0.7550, support is at 0.7500

The MACD indicator declined which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI indicator is placed near the undervalued ground which expected to favor another move downwards.

A tough break under the handle 0.7500 would pave the way towards 0.7450.
 
USD/CAD Tech

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar broke in higher than the trading range on Thursday session as the trend surpassed the 1.35 handle. The price could further go up in the long-term as there is bit of extension. There could be reversals which is simply a withdrawal but this could trigger buying opportunities when oil prices continue to fall which would bring the price higher. It may be difficult to sell this pair with the current trend of greenback.


The pair climbed higher from 1.3009 to 1.3535 levels with the support levels found below. If pair maintained its current range, the pair could further go up towards the next target at 1.3600 region.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 13, 2017

The GBP/USD pair traded rather dismally for the majority of last week’s sessions as the concerns on the UK economy and the sudden surge in the value of the USD has kept the sterling pound under constant pressure for the rest of the week. The strength of the USD has recently been subject to fluctuations, and while it ended the week on a stronger note compared to other major currencies, for the euro and the British pound, it was otherwise. The invocation of the Article 50 is drawing nearer, and this has also led to an increase in Brexit-related concerns and has also pushed the pair down towards 1.2200 points and so far it has been unable to recover from this particular region.

A lot of analysts have been saying that any bounce in the currency pair should be seen as a short trading opportunity, and since the sterling pound is not expected to make a full recovery anytime soon and with the USD gearing up for more medium-term advancements, the currency pair would most likely feel the impact of the pronounced weakness in the sterling pound.

For this week, the UK will be releasing its claimant count change data, earnings index, as well as a rate statement and a rate announcement from the Bank of England. On the other hand, the US will be releasing its retail sales data, its PPI data and CPI data, which are all expected to inject some volatility into the currency pair. But the spotlight for this week will mostly be directed to the FOMC rate announcement, where the central bank is expected to implement another interest rate hike, which will likely be followed by a hawkish statement from Fed officials. However, it has yet to be seen whether the bank’s statement would be hawkish enough for the bulls to push the pricing of the USD upwards. If this happens, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly test 1.2000 points in the near future.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 13, 2017

The USD/CAD pair consolidated for the most part of last week’s session after breaking out during the previous week. The USD/CAD pair moved towards the 1.3500 barrier, which is the barrier that the pair bulls have been constantly trying to break through during the several previous sessions, with the pair’s last attempt to surpass this region resulting to the pair retreating significantly back to 1.3000 points. The bulls have become increasingly cautious of this particular region and this is part of the reason why the bulls have resorted to ranging and consolidating at just under this range.

Both the US and the Canadian economy released a string of economic data during the latter part of last week, with both the numbers and employment rates coming out at a much better rate than expected. This has then increased the probability of a Fed rate hike within the week and confirmed the positive economic growth for Canada. As a result, the USD/CAD pair was not subject to any drastic changes since both currencies cancelled out the other’s projected positive effects on the pair and on the market.

For this week, the US will be releasing its retail sales data, as well as its PPI and CPI data, in addition to the much-awaited announcement from the FOMC, which will determine whether the central bank has decided to implement an interest rate hike or otherwise. However, since the Federal Reserve is pretty much expected to increase its interest rates and have a hawkish statement. As such, the USD could possibly weaken following the FOMC rate announcement, a move which should be closely guarded by the USD/CAD pair.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 13, 2017

The USD/JPY pair posted impressive gains during the previous week, with the majority of the past week’s gains being attributed to the possibility of a quarterly interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve for this year. However, as Friday’s session commenced, the currency pair retreated slightly after economic data coming from the US showed that the country’s economy might not be stable enough to implement another interest rate hike immediately this coming June. The USD/JPY pair finished off the previous trading week at 114/738 points after increasing by +0.65% or 0.744 points.

USD/JPY traders had initially believed that the March rate hike was pretty much in the bag, but the release of the NFP report last Friday has shed some doubts with regards to the timing of future interest rate hikes from the central bank. In addition, the average hourly earnings came in at 0.2%, falling short of the expected reading of 0.3%.

The USD/JPY could possibly retreat in value for this week as investors start adjusting to the weak NFP report, and the closing price of the currency pair would be likely determined by the monetary policy statement from the Fed this coming Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rates and could possibly cite references on the country’s present economic environment as well as other economic factors which might impact the central bank’s policy decision. The BoJ could also state that the increase in US interest rates might be good news for the Japanese economy as this could lend added pressure to the Japanese yen which could trigger a rise in exports demand.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 13, 2017

The expectations for Consumer Inflation and Industrial Production of Britain showed lower-than-expected results that further weighed on the British currency.

Moreover, the sterling stayed flat out on Friday. The major is trading in the middle points of 1.2200 and 1.2170 but failed to establish a short-term position.

The spot hovered under the moving averages and advanced lower as shown in the 4-hour chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2200, support is at 1.2100.

The MACD histogram increased which confirmed weak stance of the sellers. RSI came close to the oversold territory.

We expect two possible scenarios. When the GBP is oversold, the marks 1.2250 – 1.2300 will not be excluded in the correction. Also, if the sellers continued to be in control the major will keep on sliding. Having broken the 1.2150 region, the 1.2100 will recur within the range.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

The EUR/USD pair merely floated around during the previous session with no definite direction as the market prepares itself for the onset of economic data which is expected to hit the US market this coming Wednesday. The FOMC meeting will commence on Wednesday, where the committee is expected to make the rate announcement as well as another statement, which would hopefully contain confirmation of the much-awaited interest rate hike. As of the moment, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at just over 1.0650 points and is expected to exhibit more ranging and consolidation as the market awaits the rate statements from the FOMC tomorrow.

Draghi’s speech yesterday did not do much to improve the current stance of the EUR/USD pair and was unable to induce added volatility into the currency pair. As of the moment the euro is still being kept afloat by last week’s events, particularly Draghi’s statement that the EU is already well on its way to recovery with regards to accomplishing its fiscal and economic goals.

For today’s series of trading sessions, there are no major news releases from the EU while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data later today. But since the market is now focusing themselves on the release of the FOMC tomorrow, this particular piece of data is not expected to increase the pair’s volatility rates. The EUR/USD pair could be in for more ranging and consolidation as the day progresses.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.

In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.

For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 20, 2017

The USD/CAD pair lost over 200 pips last week and although the currency pair managed to make some measure of recovery before the week came to a close, it is obvious that the USD/CAD pair has now reverted to its larger ranges, thereby making it much more vulnerable to its range lows. The pair has incessantly moved towards 1.3500 points during the past few months but has been unable so far to break through this barrier, causing the currency pair to retreat to its bottom rungs at the 1.3000 region.

One of the reasons for this recent retreat in the USD/CAD’s value is that the USD has started weakening across the board as a reaction to the recent release of the FOMC rate announcement and the subsequent statement from the central bank. The interest rate hike from the Fed was already expected by the market and has not affected the course of the USD/CAD direction. However, the market was disappointed with the lack of enough hawkishness from the Fed’s statement after the central bank chose to remain neutral, leaving a lot of speculations in its wake with regards to the pricing of the next interest rate hike. As a result, the US dollar was subject to a lot of selling across the board, with the USD/CAD pair going down from 1.3500 to 1.3400 points and even want as far down as 1.3300 before finally hitting some solid support barrier which enabled it to hold on its own until the rest of the week ended.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its retail sales and CPI data while there are no expected releases from the US economy. If Canada continues releasing a slew of positive economic data, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly drop further in value and could reach 1.3100 points. This particular price action is pretty much expected from the currency pair since the dollar is also expected to drop in the short term as well. However, there is still a possibility that the pair will maintain its stance on the 1.3000 points and the dollar would revert, thereby pushing the currency pair towards 1.3500 points.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 20, 2017
The USD/JPY closed down last week’s session on a much lower note as a reaction to the Fed policy statement as well as its interest rate projections. The USD/JPY finished off last week at 112.616 points after going down by -0.59% or 0.670 points. The currency pair underwent significant pressure last week as the Fed failed to outline a specific timeline for its next rate hike in spite of the central bank increasing its interest rates.
Prior to this particular decision from the Fed, market players had been expecting a total of four interest rate hikes for the duration of the year, which is why a lot of US Treasury investors had to adjust their portfolios accordingly following the Fed announcement due to a shift in general market sentiments. In addition to the Fed rate hike, the BoJ also voted 7-2 on its decision to maintain its yield curve control policy, wherein BoJ officials favored to maintain its zero target for 10-year Japanese government bond yields. In addition, the Bank of Japan also added that it will be continue buying Japanese government bonds at 80 trillion yen or $705 billion per annum.
There are no major economic reports set to be released from the Japanese economy for this week, but the US economy will be releasing its core durable goods data and unemployment claims data this week. Janet Yellen will also be making a statement this coming Thursday. As such, the price action of the USD/JPY for this week would most likely be dictated by the G20 decisions set to be released this week.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 20, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had probably some of its best weeks in recent market history after the currency pair surged by almost 300 pips last week and closed down last week’s session near its range highs, which should be a cause for celebration for the pair’s bulls. This move was also augmented by the recent weakness in the USD’s value, thereby enabling the currency pair to recover from its recent lows at 1.2100 points and has caused the pair to move towards 1.2200 and 1.2300 points. The GBP/USD pair is now trading at just under 1.2400 and looks poised for more.

This recent increase in the GBP/USD pair’s value was due to the Fed’s decision to keep mum on the schedule of its next interest rate hikes while at the same time increasing its interest rates. This uncertainty did no good for the dollar bulls since the bulls have been expecting a strongly hawkish statement from the central bank. As a result, the USD was met with large-scale selloffs, which enabled the currency pair to move towards 1.2200 points. The sterling pound also got another boost from reports that one BoE official had voted in favor of an interest rate hike in order to help support the country’s economy. As a result, the GBP/USD pair managed to go past 1.2300 points and closed down the week at 1.2400 points.

The currency pair is expected to maintain its bullishness in the short term but could possibly weaken in the medium term as the Brexit process begins which will put the GBP/USD pair under considerable pressure. There are no major news releases from the US but the UK will be releasing its retail sales data. This recent surge in the GBP/USD’s value is most likely to fizzle out eventually and would not be sustained in the long run.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2017

The USD/CAD pair merely continued its weak trading streak within a limited trading range as the currency pair awaits clues on its price action as dictated by its fundamental indicators. Previously, the USD/CAD pair had already dropped in value last week following the FOMC rate statement, which disappointed investors in general, and since then the currency pair has been unable to make any significant progress and if the pair does move forward, it will be more of a consolidation in order to recover its recent losses than any move towards a definite direction.

The USD/CAD is currently trading at just over 1.3350 points, with the market expecting the currency pair to consolidate within the 1.3300-1.3400 region. The pair is expected to return to its wider trading range and could possibly reach 1.3000 points in the near future. The USD/CAD pair, along with other major currency pairs, are expected to consolidate within a much higher range in spite of their collectively high volatility levels.

The Canadian economy has been consistently releasing a slew of positive economic data, and this is expected to be very good news for the Canadian dollar and could cause the USD/CAD pair to retreat to 1.3000 points. For today’s session, Canada will be releasing its core retail sales data, which will be closely monitored by market players as this will be an important gauge on the overall health of the Canadian economy. If the data meets market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could retreat towards 1.3300 points and could be poised for more retractions depending on the strength of the said retail sales data.
 
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