Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 24, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a calm trading During the Tuesday session. The price rallied higher because massive support found at 111 level. The market tries to push it higher towards the 111.50 region and this could even go higher reaching towards the 112.50 level above which has been a significant psychological region previously.

With the fluctuation in the stock market, traders should monitor the indices especially the S&P 500 because of its high sensitivity to risk appetite. This would hint the next move in the trading market as there is a high correlation between the two. The Japanese yen being a safe haven asset would bring about greater risk appetite when it proceeded with a sell-off. This is a positive indication since a massive bullish candle was formed during the day.

If the price breaks higher than the 112.50 level, the current long-term uptrend will be sustained. This is a strong indicator but the market could attempt more than once to be successful as the market would most likely climb higher.

However, when the price breaks lower than the 112.50 level instead, the massive support will remain as of how it was in the past. The stock market is gaining momentum which could also push the price higher for long-term with a strong correlation with the stocks. Hence, traders should monitor changes not only in forex market but also in the stock market.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 25, 2017

The EURUSD bounced off from its sessions lows after the release of a weaker than expected data in U.S housing last Wednesday.

The confidence index for Germany continued to increase while the European Central Bank was on the tape, expressing diverging statements. This confuses many traders thinking about how will the ECB cope with their remarks on the back of the monetary policy meeting scheduled on June.

The pair starts to form a bull flag pattern that served as a pause to stimulate. While price creates a Doji day that came up during opening and closing of the same level, as it reflects a market indecision.

The support came in at 1.1094 region close to the 10-day moving average. Resistance is found in the area 1.1299 around the highs of U.S. election day on November 8.

A break within this region will test the 1.1365 mark near the highs in August 2016. The momentum became neutral because the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) printed in the black, however, the histogram declined which slowed down the positive impetus and further indicates a consolidation
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 25, 2017

The sterling pound had an initial attempt to conduct a rally amid Wednesday trades, as it tests the level above 1.30 region. This is an important area and a break on top of it would indicate a bullish signal.

As of this writing, the ascending line was maintained and buyers would likely enter the market as soon as possible. A breakdown underneath the uptrend line will trigger the market to test 1.29 handle, which appeared to be supportive. Further breakdown around the handle, will indicate a negative sign in the near-term, but it looks like that more support can be found below.

An attempt for a reversal is deliberated, however, the Cable was highly volatile as expected, considering the headlines issued from Brussels and London that could move the market unexpectedly.

Having said that, the conditions are going to demonstrate choppiness and a smaller position size should be mainly considered. Nevertheless, a rally within this direction will suggest a long-term trend towards the upside, requiring the position size to be not so big. Otherwise, an investment that could reach the 1.3450 range above.

Furthermore, a gap through 1.2750 below will cause the market to slide and return to a bearish long-term move. In case this happens, the fall is assumed to be in an abrupt manner.

The bullish bias will remain along with the noise currently in the market.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 25, 2017

The greenbacks rebounded around amid Wednesday’s trades, staying on top of the 1.35 region very often. However, the Bank of Canada, later on, stated that the recent plight in the inflation was merely an anomaly by which people should not be privy to. With this, the favor of the market is leaned towards the Canadian dollar as the oil industry had received a fair support.

A break under the level 1.36 will extend the strength of the selling pressure because of the oil prices. The oil market appeared to be volatile on the back of the OPEC announcement expected to be released later. When the announcement regarding the production cuts appeared to be longer and deeper than of the anticipated result, it will surge the oil price up resulting the pair to move lower.

Selling rallies will continue considering that the market formed renewed lows in the day, however, the oil sector presumably will ascend. When the organization did not meet the expectations of bullish oil traders, the market will reverse suddenly. This will further make the USDCAD an interesting pair for the next sessions while high volume will be seen jumping in and out from the oil pits.

Trading recommendations say that the 1.33 handle and 1.30 level below is supportive. In the longer-term, the oil will be facing major issues and will run to the upside of the market in the short-term. This will cause for the North American shale producers to came in.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 25, 2017

The USD/CAD pair crashed past 1.3500 points during yesterday’s session, signalling a complete turnaround of the pair’s price action. The loonie has also somewhat managed to test the 1.3500 range, although its progress was remarkably slow and has cast doubt on the pair’s ability to reach its medium-term target of 1.4000 points.

The pair’s targets were mostly based on the recent drop in oil prices, as well as the current problems and uncertainties surrounding the Canadian economy, and a possible rate cut in Canada anytime soon. But the Canadian government seems to have already reined in its economic concerns, and this can be seen in the sound improvement of Canadian economic data during the past weeks. The USD/CAD pair has also moved down from 1.3800 points to 1.3500 points as the Canadian dollar received significant support from a surge in oil prices during the previous weeks. The Bank of Canada has decided yesterday to maintain its current rates which painted a rosy picture of the Canadian economy and enabled the USD/CAD pair to correct towards 1.3500 points before finally deciding to settle at 1.3400 points.

For today’s trading session, the market will be monitoring the OPEC meetings scheduled within the day which is expected to affect the course of action of the USD/CAD pair. However, since the pair has now surpassed 1.3500 points, this particular range could possibly serve as the pair’s resistance level against any other attempts to reach its range highs.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a calm trading session on Wednesday. The 112 level is being resistive up to 112.50 above. It may be best to wait until the price breaks in the upper region but most likely it will decline in the short-term. There is a support close to the 111.50 level and anticipate volatility in the market. There is a lot of buyers down below but with chances to break out. It will be more advantageous to trade this pair in short-term as it open more opportunities in either direction.

Short-term trades may drop from the current psychological level but there is a massive support down below that makes it appealing for long-term traders. The market will be observant with the reports coming out with all the political problems globally.

Since the stock market is moving upwards, the pair could go higher with the “risk on” sentiment in the market and the Japanese yen sell-off is a positive indicator,

Look for smaller trade positions as these open opportunities but will have chances to lose some money. In the long-term, the pair will continue to move upward but be ready for volatility. Also, it is important to consider the time frame in positioning orders.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 25, 2017

The New Zealand dollar had a rough session on Wednesday. It dropped in the beginning to 0.6990 level but recovered as it bounced back to 0.7040 region before falling again. The volatility will most likely continue since there are a lot of happenings in the commodity market since the kiwi is relative to the commodities. Hence, is the commodity prices roll over, expectedly, the New Zealand will also be sold and bought one after the other.

It is best to wait until the price breaks in the lower channel, as shown in the 72-hour Exponential Average, before selling this pair. The market is anticipated to fluctuate with many issues side-by-side concerning geopolitical problems fueled by global demand.

Traders would have a difficult time in trading this pair for long-term. If the price breaks lower than the 72-hour Moving Average, it could further go down towards the 0.69 handle. The latest peak was lower than the previous one which would bring a lot of noise in the market.

Overall, if the price breaks higher than the fresh new high, buyers could proceed with this pair although there will bounce from time to time. There is a downtrend bias in the market especially when the 72-hour Moving Average becomes the basis to participate in this market on the low side. Yet, it would still be wiser to wait on the sidelines.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The EURUSD trade in the sideways trying to proceed near the resistance region at 1.1265 mark, however, failed to take its position and plunged amid North American trading hours.

The jobless claims showed tight data during its Thursday’s release and were offset through a dovish tone indicated from the minutes of FOMC meeting issued on Wednesday by the Fed.

The predictions failed to some extent which triggered the Fed to make its final decision on Friday while Fed funds continued to have a strong expectation that the bank will take action.

The pair keeps forming a bull flag pattern which acts a pause to refresh. The price consolidated under the resistance level at 1.1299 near its November 8 highs.

The support approached 1.1132 area close to the 10-day moving average. The momentum appeared to be neutral while the MACD histogram moved downwards indicating a down sloping positive momentum. The RSI further trailed lower from the overbought territory as it prints 67 reading. This is the upper end of the neutral range which suggests for a consolidation.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The British currency ride out a volatile session amid Thursday trades, reaching the top of the 1.30 region in the day and rolled downwards substantially. Further support can be found in the uptrend line which reflects for another round of rally.

The market could likely offer buying opportunities for the GBP/USD, however, the actual signal intended for the long-term trading suggests a move over the mark 1.3050. This implies that the trend will continue until the 1.3450 area that would be the top of the former consolidation region towards the weekly charts in the long-term.

Buying the dips could possibly remain to exist along the way while the trading position shall maintain as small as possible. Since the market will continue to be highly volatile due to remarks from the UK and EU people privy to the British exit.

As things go because of volatility, dealing with the market will going to be delicate and it is important to sustain a small position. This way could be the best idea to go up against any types of risks we may face.

It is recommended to cut in half anything you feel you are comfortable with, so you can employ twice the stop loss. This could help you to stay in a market where uncertainties are extraordinary, however, it appears that buyers in the longer-term will extend its involvement with the Cable as the sterling became oversold at some point.

As the volatility continues, we should initiate to build up higher highs once more including a long position as well. Selling still not an option as we deemed that the absolute floor can be found at 1.2750.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The Australian currency endured an extreme volatility amid session on Thursdays, making a gapped through the top of 0.75 handle and fell lower. In the past few days appeared to interesting due to the weakening of the ascending momentum. With this, the risk of the decline is within reach and in case that the gold markets are able to keep the support around $1250 level will accelerate the downtrend.

The market currently following an uptrend line which positioned under the actual pricing. The market broke underneath the ascending line which could be one of the reasons to extend the decline. When this happens, the level below 0.74 is expected to set off a positive target for many traders.

Moreover, the commodity market should be taken into consideration when it comes to Aussie, this includes the copper and gold. The previous volatility of the AUD makes it difficult to hover within this position, it requires a break on top of the current highs or a significant breakdown in order to set actual money to work.

The choppiness is also extended since traders dominate the overall place with regards to the projections on the interest rate in the United States while Asian appeal for base metals from Australia.

A breakdown underneath the 0.7440 range will confirm for a roll over which signaled for a lower pricing, nevertheless, the noise remains that causes the market to be a tough one to engage with.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined in the beginning of Thursday trading session. The OPEC announcement has been released saying the production cute has been extended for another nine months. Although this is already expected, the downtrend occurs because of the possibility for a sell-off in the oil market as reflected in the hourly chart.

A break higher than the 1.35 region would induce this pair to move higher reaching up to 1.36 handle. Yet, if an exhaustive candle is formed, the market would proceed to a sell-off. The next few sessions are relevant to determine what happens in the future o f this pair.

The OPEC was not as aggressive as expected but the production cut decision is in line with the market’s expectation. Long-term traders would see a buying opportunity to the current condition of the oil market. However, it is safer to wait for a longer rally for the day before doing so, Overall, the market is moving uptrend for long-term which has had a rough trading last week.

It may be best to wait on the sidelines for the next 1 to days before trading this pair. The Moving Averages were not doing well but there is a chance for loonies to soften in the long-term. The 1.36 level is a significant psychological level for long-term to put on hold long-term orders and traders should wait until the current trend has been settled before placing orders.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The British pound and Japanese yen pair had a volatile trading during the Tuesday session. It broke higher in the beginning but stopped at 145.50 resistance level followed by a decline as it reached the lowest level for the day before stopping by another level.

The market is having a difficult time trading even scalping for 2 pips and it’s nearly impossible to hold onto trade for an indefinite period of time until a new psychological level has been reached. There is a significant barrier seen at 145.50 region so a break higher than the said level would bring optimism for the pair.

In the past few week, the market is trying to reach new highs. A new breakout is needed to lay off the bullish pressure but for now, it is uncertain on what this pair would bring to the table. Hence, traders should be cautious with their next move.

For the long term, there is a bearish pressure, especially for weekly and monthly traders. Recently, the yen related pairs rallies which could affect the overall trend but it is really poor at the beginning as usual but this would switch later on to the upside when traders gain enough momentum.

This pair is anticipated to be choppy and lingers in consolidation between the 144.50 and 145.50 region in the upper side. Short-term trades will be preferred and drive the whole trend. Hence, it is advisable to place orders in smaller positions until a significant break has been achieved when the market activity becomes volatile because of several factors, mainly for geopolitical reasons.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The Euro against the British pound had a very choppy trading during the Thursday session as the market is attempting to push the price higher which could eventually break later on. There are also some pullbacks seen in the short-term which supports the current trend and gather enough impetus and volume to reach higher levels. If the price breaks higher than the 0.8675 region, the current trend will move upward reaching the 0.88 level that is relevant for long-term as shown in the charts.

Those reversals would gain more appeal to the buyers as it closes near the 0.86 support level which was supportive in the past. There’s an option to wait for a breakout first to lift it higher which implies bullishness in the trend which is beneficial for buyers.

The market is choppy influenced by the two economies and commentaries from both countries bringing a lot of noise in the market. Yet, the trend remains resilient as it is directed upwards although there are pullbacks every now and then. If the price breaks lower than the 0.8550 region, the market is anticipated to roll over. This is most probably because of major events which are usually unexpectedly fast when it happen. Overall, the buyers seem to dominate the market.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 29, 2017

The EUR/USD pair closed down last week’s trading session within its range lows as the USD was able to regain its strength after dropping in value during the previous week. The greenback had previously lost its strength after Trump-related political woes bogged down the value of the currency, in addition to speculations that Trump’s various misdemeanors could possibly affect the expected rate hike next month. Luckily, the dollar was able to gain some momentum after the market sentiment regarding a June rate hike went from negative to positive.

The dollar was further propped up by the results of the FOMC minutes, although the minutes lacked enough hawkishness to satisfy the markets. However this was enough for the market to price in a rate hike next month, in addition to some Fed officials stating that they would like to see a June rate hike. This was enough for the dollar to increase in value against the euro, although the EUR/USD pair’s current range is currently the pair’s lowest range within the year. But the currency pair remains trading within a very strong and steady range, which is probably one of the reasons why the USD has not progressed that much against the euro. Merkel also remarked last week that she is currently worried about the euro’s marked weakness, and as such, this has helped to prop up the euro further in addition to a steady stream of positive economic data from the EU economy during the previous week. So although the currency pair closed down on a much lower note, the pair remains in a very limited range and this is why the euro could still possibly be able to withstand USD pressure within the near future.

For this week, the market will be bracing itself for the release of the first half of month-end flows as this week will start the beginning of a new month. The second half of the week will be packed with economic releases such as the NFP reports on Friday. The market will be in for some additional volatility, and traders are advised to remain within significant buying areas should they wish to trade EUR/USD longs.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 29, 2017

The sterling pound remains to be the weakest in a sea of major currency pairs during the past week after the GBP/USD pair failed yet again to break through the very crucial region of 1.3030 in spite of several attempts to do so. The currency pair remains on the backfoot and has been unable to make any significant progress in spite of a string of very positive economic data from the UK economy during these past few months.

There were no significant economic readings from the UK economy last week and this helped in steadying the value of the sterling pound, although the GBP/USD pair remained under pressure due to the strength of the greenback, which only accelerated throughout the course of last week as the market attempted to re-price the June rate hike from the Fed. The FOMC then tried to augment this positivity by stating that the rate hike was still in the table as far as the Fed is concerned, provided that the US economy continues to throw up some good readings for the market. This was more than enough for market traders, who immediately delved into dollar longs as preparation for a possible interest rate hike in spite of the fact that this will be dependent on the results of the month-end flows for the US economy. The GBP/USD pair remained under constant pressure last week, and its attempts to go past 1.3030 were all immediately met by large-scale selloffs. The currency pair eventually dropped down to 1.2900 and even 1.2800 points before finally settling at just over 1.2800 points.

For this week, the market will be bracing itself for the month-end flows as we enter a new month. This could potentially affect the value of the GBP/USD pair and could even be subject to additional pressure once the UK and the US economy releases a series of essential economic data such as the NFP report and the PMI data. The pair is expected to continue to be under pressure during the first half, while the pair’s value on the second half would most likely depend on the value of the US dollar.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 29, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session. It reached the lowest level of 110.80. If it bounced back, this will signal a bullish trend but this would not be easy to attain as there is high-risk appetite especially for this pair. The 110 level gives off a massive support but is the pair breaks lower, the next level would be at 108 region at a quicker pace because there is a still remaining gap that has not been filled.

In the long-term, this pair will most likely go higher although it may take some time since the 112.50 is strongly resistive. A break higher than this region would be beneficial for scalpers to take advantage of bulls interested in the U.S. dollar.

Traders of this pair should monitor the S&P 500 index as this would have a big influence to the pair. If the index rises, this pair follows. Moreover, the chances for a Fed rate hike puts a bullish pressure for the pair. If it did not take place, it might be a problem for the pair although it is most likely that this would happen with its stature at stake.

Pullbacks every now and then offer long-term opportunities but for short-term, this gives off bearish volatility/ This could persist for some time especially with the major events concerning geopolitical problems occurring from Europe and the U.S.

Overall, the pair moves in an uptrend from 110.23 level and a decline from 112.13 will indicate a correction. It is expected to rise again following the correction towards the 113.50 level. The near-term resistance is found at 111.70 and a break to this level would mean a continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, the support region is positioned at 110.80 and 110.23 and a break from these levels would push the price back again from 114.36 level.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017


It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.


What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.


For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The pair was influenced by the possible adjustments in the forward policy that will be implemented come second week of June. The ECB council is pressured prior to the June 8 council assembly following the slow changes seems to be not happening.

The Draghi and Praet both responded in the previous week saying the inflation is still on line towards a viable path towards the desired figure. On Tuesday, rounded off confidence data by the ESI sentiment indicator for the month of May warrants the recovery of the currency. Although, preliminary inflation for May is anticipated to decline.

The Euro against the U.S. dollar had an inactive Monday session because of holidays in the U.S., China and the U.K. On the other hand, equities are plunge as Italian shares declined by 2 percent including bank shares that fell more than 3.0 percent. This has been the highest drop over the past three months. Moreover, the bond market in Italy dropped fastidiously while the 10-year yield rose close to nine basis points that adds pressure to go down in Euro if the core prices fell.

The Resistance level positioned at 1.1265 which is its high previously while the support level is noticed close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1178 region. A doji pattern is noticeable in the trend that would mean indecision of the market. The price trend could further go down towards the next target of 1.1050 mark. If this level is sustained, the decline from 1.1267 indicated consolidation for long-term and rise again following the downtrend towards 1.1450 after the consolidation. The MACD index prints are seen close to the zero level implying a neutral stance while the MACD histogram shows a flat course that hints consolidation of the pair.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The Euro against the British pound declined during the Monday session. The pullbacks happened as the British pound stabilizes. If the price breaks down lower than the 0.87 handle which has a higher chance to happen, the next level would be at 0.8650. However, if the price breaks higher than the 0.8750 region implying that the downtrend has been disturbed and will move upward instead.

There is high choppiness in the market despite the fact that the recuperation of the British pound. This could result in a sell-off for long-term and it seems that the volatility will persist. Hence, short-term swaying may be the end result.

Quite often, you can decide which way to go in this market based upon how they are behaving against the US dollar. For example, if one is stronger than the other against the US dollar, then that’s the direction you want to trade in this pair. It’s something that I call “triangulation”, as you can glean what’s going to happen in the EUR/GBP pair by paying attention to what happens in the EUR/USD pair, and of course the GBP/USD pair.

Most of the time, the next move in the market can be determined when compared with the U.S. dollar and give an idea which one will be better or not. This could also be applied to the EUR/GBP pair by analyzing the direction of the EUR/USD pair and the GBP/USD pair. Gauging their resilience and fragility in the market will help traders decision in trading depending on your preferred route to choose.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top