Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The British currency was able to gain strength amid Monday session after the stabilization in past few weeks. While the selloff was severe, nonetheless, we’re able to reach the region 1.2750 below. The mentioned level deemed as massive resistance previously based on the long-term chart.

As the sterling could maintain its overall stability, the market could possibly edged upwards. Upon breaking down the 1.2750 handle, buying in the dips appeared to offer a bigger and longer term buying opportunity. The selloff was drastic because of the political polls which is always wrong throughout the year. The market has to sustain its volatility, however, it will highly prefer the upside.

In the long-term, the GBPUSD will be bullish but there is a likelihood that the market has plenty of noise to deal with.

A break on top of the 1.29 handle will trigger the market to initiate a bullish pressure as it was able to lure the attention of some traders.

Meanwhile, buying the dips is possible and could be better if done in a short-term outlook, at the same time, employing small time frames and positions to complete this bias.

A cut through beneath the mark 1.2750 will break down which definitely change the general perspective.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.

The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the country’s economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the country’s economy continues to be positive.

For today’s session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the country’s inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar broker lower amid a choppy conditioned during the Monday session. It fluctuated back then and bounced off as it found the 0.7450 level resistive. Then, it declined towards the 0.7425 region and bounced again. For the past trading session, the market is moving in a downward direction and it won’t take long before the pair breaks below the 0.70 region in the lower channel. If the pair breaks higher than the 0.7450 level, the market will head towards the 0.75 handle.

Also, the gold market has a direct impact to the pair which will be influenced by the movement of the commodity market most especially, since there are several factors that could trigger a move in the gold market.

A surge in the gold market surged based on the appetite risk will be beneficial for the currency. However, if a safety trade is the driver of the surge in the gold market such as the increased concern regarding North Korea inducing fear in the International market and people may go to the Aussie since it is a “risky currency”.

The surge in gold is most likely because of the search for safe-haven asset instead of economic growth purposes. This puts the Australian dollar in a difficult situation although it won’t take that long for another breakdown as said before.

When it breaks down, the price trend could further go down although there will be choppiness with it as how it is for this pair for a while. Overall, the greenback is moving in a better side compared to the Aussie betting forward in short-term.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The New Zealand currency tried to rally on Monday’s trading and broke out in the middle of the session. However, a reversal occurred then selloff by which the market would likely remain its choppiness as it advances forward.

A gapped down the 0.7040 region would allow for the to be sold since it is the level that provides a significant amount of support. Moreover, a cut through underneath that area would likely short the NZDUSD and touch the level under 0.70. A bounced within the mentioned area would trigger a pullback to support. With this, the market has the tendency to reach towards the top of the 0.71. The commodity-linked pair will still be volatile and we do not know about the amount of risk tolerance which largely influences the NZD.

We see that the latest uptrend was choppy, hence we should move higher but this could be a tough thing to do. Having said that, smaller positions are the least option to get involved in amid this scenario.

A break over the 0.71 range is extremely bullish and would continue as the stock market and the commodities will be relatively good. Otherwise, the market is going to break down towards 0.70. It will put out the market lower, touching 0.69 handle below. In both cases, we should anticipate for higher volatility for the pair.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 30, 2017

The USD/CAD appeared to be negative throughout Monday session, however, it starts to search for another leg close to 1.3425 handle.

The market is in the downtrend at some point, which is highly influenced by the oil markets.

The trading yesterday was very thin as the oil sector surge which established a bearish pressure towards the USDCAD. It will be a challenge when the full volume returned to the marketplace which could absolutely persuade the market eventually.

Ability to break on top of 1.35 handle requires the market to continue moving higher. Otherwise, a renewed lows would significantly cause a breakdown and maybe, it could touch 1.33 handle. However, the route could be really choppy which obliged the participants to be cautious.

Previously, a downtrend is prominent despite the noise around the crude oil markets, this could lead to a sudden shift.

In case that the oil industry breaks on top of $50.50 level based on the WTI grade, the market will initiate a significant collapse. Contrarily, a cut through beneath $50 level could possibly prompt the pair to rally towards the upside giving an opportunity to resume a longer-term uptrend which is common and important in the past few weeks.

The next moves are highly anticipated and there are predictions that it could be best to take a pause on the sidelines, waiting for a correlating move from both markets prior investing a large amount to work.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The EURUSD bounced back from its session lows against the lower than expected result in Germany’s inflation rate along with the weakening of EMU sentiment. Meanwhile, the GDP statistics of France was corrected higher, Spain’s inflation and Swiss KOF index came in softer

The diverging opinions about the exit strategy of the European Central Bank remain to go through jawboning prior the bank’s meeting scheduled the following week.

Moreover, the pair bounced off in spite hitting its renewed lows, however, failed to regain the resistance at 1.1182 level around the 10-day moving average. The support touched 1.10 region close to its April highs.

The bull flag dwindled seeing the momentum to shift in the negative. The moving average convergence divergence established a crossover signal to sell. This event was triggered due to the spread that crosses underneath the 9-day EMA. The MACD histogram move ahead the negative zone prior the positive territory, therefore, indicating a sell signal.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The British currency had broken out in the upside amid Tuesday’s session following an initial move lower. A break above pushes through a higher high with the possibility that the market will trail near 1.29 handle. The mentioned level certainly holds an amount of psychological significance and a cut through on top of its would generate a bullish signal.

The region below 1.2750 had a significant floor which appeared to be a massive resistance previously. With this, the buyers would likely return each time a dip was made and the pound has been further oversold because of the vote casting.

While the conservatives have greater chance to win again over the election, hence, risks should peter out taking into account to where the United Kingdom will go next.

Moreover, it still an advantage to buy dips within this market. It could touch the region 1.3050 again while offering good trading opportunities for longer-term position in the past sessions. An ability to break on top of that area would mean the market will move ahead near 1.3450 mark. It should be given enough time to reset the level and there is a tendency that market players will look this pull back as valuable and beneficial.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 31, 2017

The EUR/USD pair started off yesterday’s trading session on a somewhat subdued note as UK and US traders returned to their desks after the long weekend, with market liquidity levels reverting back to normal during the latter part of the previous session. The currency pair had decreased in value last Monday following concerns regarding Greece’s bailout, as well as Draghi’s statement wherein he remains as dovish as ever.

But the EUR/USD pair continues to fare for the better as the PCE data came in on a very disappointing note during the second half of the previous session. As the PCE data is a very important gauge of US inflation rates and will serve as the Fed’s basis for its subsequent rate hikes, the greenback suffered a correction, enabling the EUR/USD pair to take advantage of the dollar weakness and surge from its lows of 1.1110 points to reach the 1.1200 trading range. US bond yields also failed to meet investor expectations, and as the stock market closed down yesterday within its range lows, this caused the dollar to receive a serious beating which then caused the EUR/USD pair to further increase in value. The currency pair experienced some minor corrections during the duration of its price action yesterday but is now resting over 1.1150 points and looks poised for more upward movement.

For today’s trading session, as today marks the end of this month, there are a lot of expected month-end flows although there are only a few economic data scheduled for today. The market is expected to add up its volatility as some Fed officials will be making statements today, with the EUR/USD pair possibly exhibiting a strong price action for the rest of the week.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 31, 2017

The GBP/USD pair exhibited a very intermittent price action during the previous session as it was extremely volatile during the previous 24 hours. The cable pair further surged in value during the European session and the first few hours of the NY session as the market volatility returned to its normal levels following a low liquidity volume last Monday. The US PCE data which was released yesterday also came out to be somewhat disappointing for the market as the data showed a lack of bite in US inflation rates, causing the greenback to drop in value and enabled the GBP/USD pair to advance towards 1.2880 points.

The June snap elections in the UK is recently serving as a determinant for the price action of the cable pair, and since there have been a lot of discussions going on including the possibility of the UK’s ruling party losing the snap elections, the GBP/USD pair did not take this particular piece of news lightly and fell below 1.2800 points almost immediately after the said update. Theresa May had initially called for the snap elections as a means for her to establish herself further while creating a more solid majority for herself, and such, anything less than a landslide victory for may would cause a massive pound selloff as the market becomes jittery just before the elections commence.

For today’s session, there are no major releases from the UK economy, although a lot of month-end flows are expected within the day which are all expected to put downward pressure on the cable pair.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar climbed during early Tuesday trading session and ended until it reached the 1.35 level that is strongly resistive. Yet, it opens potential trade to the market. If the market is able to close higher than the 1.35 level, it gives off an important psychological level and much better to break above the 1.3550 region. Hence, this opens an opportunity to place long orders.

On the other hand, if the pair reverses instead, the currency will keep on gaining leverage most especially if the oil market rallies. Currently, the oil market is in significant levels. It persists to have high volatility but a break more than the 1.3550 level exceeding the current highs will appeal to more traders.

There are concerns that the oil market is declining again, in effect this will push the price of the pair to move higher. Although, as of now, this is just secondary to the crude oil market that traders should give attention to. A break higher than the 1.3575 region signals uptrend of the pair.

Overall, there will be high volatility in the market regardless of what happens next since there is a lot of noise in the oil market because of the reduced production output in the U.S. and Canada. Hence, traders should anticipate this until the commodity market stabilizes. Moreover, the Canadian housing is also gaining pressure in the market.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The U.S. dollar traded against the Japanese yen declined during Tuesday session. The 110.80 is being tested and it seems that the trend will further go down towards the 110 handle. This makes this region important and it will make take too long when buyers return again in the market.

The pair is highly sensitive to the risk appetite and a higher stock market as well as the commodity market would push this market to move higher. If the pair breaks to fresh new highs even above the 111.50 region, it opens the possibility to move towards the 112 level and a break even higher will most likely hover to 115 handle next.

There is a general “risk off” for this pair that would push the price lower towards the 110 region surpassing the 108 region. Yet, there are low chances for buyers to return to the market as the U.S. stock market rallies. This has a significant effect in International market and this includes the pair.

Timing would become an obstacle for traders that makes smaller trades as ideal positions in the market especially if the trader is aiming for a long-term bet. It is seen to be struggling against the short-term downtrend for the past few days. Overall, there is a bullish pressure seen below for long-term trades.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The national currency of Britain weakened amid Tuesday trading, however, it had a significant rebound from the area 141.80 reaching the 143 handle. A break over the daily highs would direct the market in a higher position, as it may reach 144 level without plenty of issues.

Generally, the Sterling holds a significant amount of reversal throughout the day since the Cable further exhibited active signs. This could probably be a correction for the oversold condition where the GBP sees itself, after the election polling it became tighter exceeding its expectations in the past. Moreover, the figures decreased inclined with the conservative administration. Having said that, the uptrend will resume eventually, hence buying is highly preferred on the gap above the highest.

Remember that the pairs relative to Japanese yen appeared to very sensitive to risk. This could be considered as one of the most delicate pairs, the simultaneous rally of the stock market is a big help that could move 100 pips in an instant.

Either way, a cut through underneath 142.50 region would allow the market to touch 142 handle once again.

The daily candle begins to display a bullish stance which signals that buyers will return, nevertheless, it could be best that you’ll wait for the market to reveal hints to initiate the buying, as a means to safeguard your account against an extensive volatility.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 31, 2017

The USD/CAD pair’s price action is currently dependent on the state of the economic data coming from the US and the Canadian economy within the day, with the market monitoring whether the currency pair will be able to turnaround from its presently very weak trading action.

The loonie was also unable to make any significant progress yesterday as it merely consolidated throughout the course of the previous session. Oil prices were also able to stay afloat, and this has reflected on the activity of the USD/CAD pair. The greenback experienced a slight weakness during the latter part of yesterday’s session but was unable to make any significant impact on the movement of the USD/CAD pair. The loonie is currently trading at just over the 1.3450 trading range. As we enter the second half of this week, the market is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data coming from Canada and the US, which are all expected to induce additional volatility into the market. The Canadian economic data has been consistently able to exceed initial market expectations, and this has helped the loonie to remain ahead of other major currencies and is one of the reasons why the USD/CAD pair is now in a very weak state.

For today’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its GDP data, and since the Bank of Canada has very positive sentiments with regards to the current economic state of the country, these incoming economic data will either make or break the central bank’s current sentiment. The GDP data is only one among several economic releases within the week, and the market should prepare itself for an expected volatility surge.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a negative price action although it was able to get some rest from the recent drop in the value of the greenback. As the UK snap elections are drawing closer and closer, the market is also getting more anxious as the days go by. This market anxiety is now clearly reflected in the performance of the markets, with the sterling pound still unable to catch a significant break as far as the market is concerned. Although the cable pair was able to advance from its range lows of 1.2800 points towards 1.2900 points, the currency pair still looks very weak and could crash anytime soon.

The major reason behind this weakness in the sterling pound are the various opinion polls which suggests that May’s current lead in the forthcoming elections is dwindling bit by bit, with May possibly failing to garner her initially expected majority win. Theresa May had announced the snap elections in the hopes of getting a more substantial majority as compared to her current majority, thereby establishing her position as one of the strongest world leaders. However, with her popularity losing momentum daily, this plan of hers might not come into fruition come election day. This has then caused the possibility of a hung parliament to be endangered, which could spell disaster for May and her ongoing Brexit talks and could also be very bad news for the state of the sterling pound. This could also potentially encourage Scotland to call for another independence referendum.

For today’s trading session, the UK economy will be releasing its UK PMI data, although the current risks surrounding the sterling pound might not be able to be counteracted even if the readings come out as positive. Meanwhile, the US economy will be releasing its unemployment claims and ADP employment reports, all of which are expected to increase the cable pair’s volatility levels. Traders are then encourage to proceed with caution with regards to trading with the cable pair as it is expected to be highly volatile in the next few days.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

The EURUSD accelerated on Wednesday amid lower than expected inflation statistics released by the European Union. Meanwhile, France also reported disappointing figures upon issuing HICP data, this was announced along with the soft German data on Tuesday.

The retail sales of Germany declined and yet the employment gained much strength beating expectations. The European Central Bank mandates a single monetary policy fixates on inflation which compels ECB President, Mario Draghi to conduct an effective argument in order to keep the bank’s dovish view of forward guidance.

The pair continues to create a bull flag formation which is designed as a continuation pattern that takes a pause to refresh. This is a breakout pattern that resembles a cup and saucer and we could get the picture when prices entered the previous week highs found at 1.126 region.

The next target for the resistance level is close to November 8 highs touching 1.1299 mark. While the support approach the 10-day moving average took the 1.1189 range.

Momentum appeared neutral since the MACD histogram prints around the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which further indicates for a consolidation.

The RSI (relative strength index) crept upwards along the with price trend suggesting an ascending positive momentum.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

The GBPUSD slowdown during the session on Wednesday and made a reversal to generate a significant bullish trend. A gapped on top of the level 1.29 indicates a bullish signal whereas a pull back was executed from the mentioned region but this appears to be an impulsive price action which does not have any impact. With this, the market has the tendency to move near 1.30 area and could possibly climb higher. The sterling was oversold due to concerns regarding British elections, however, the pound came in resilient and there are no signs that the GBP will shift its attitude at all. The absolute floor of the market is found at the area 1.2750 and a break down beneath there would impose selling the market and a significant resistance hurdle in the past. The trend during Wednesday’s trades was massive and somewhat parabolic which reflect a remarkable tenacity when buying. Therefore, a pullback is an advantage against this move.

Moreover, the market should remain to have buyers and expected to fight to the upside in the longer-term. The move will intensify upon acquiring an overwhelming victory for the conservative in the UK elections.

Further volatility is expected and yet the upside tends to progress forward, hence small position could the easiest road in trailing this market.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the early Wednesday trading. Followed by a breakout at 1.35 handle. The market attempts to break out again and reach for a fresh new higher than the 1.3530 region that opens buying opportunities.

The oil market is also declined which is not good for the Canadian dollar and bring the price up which has been in an uptrend for some time. This means that buyers are expected to return to the market.

It may not be a good time to position this pair for short term until a break lower than the 1.34 handle but as of now, we cannot tell what are the chances for this to happen. It would be difficult for the market if the price breaks in the upper channel towards the 1.36 handle which has been strongly resistive in the past. If oil continuous decline, it would most likely move higher that the current levels.

The OPEC production cut did not really have much of an effect on the market although this would contribute to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar especially when more oil produced are released from the U.S. This worsens the condition since the pair will go higher because of this instead of going down.

However, if the price breaks from this level, it could reach as low as 1.30 region although this may take some time to occur. Moreover, a breakout in the 1.35 region is strongly resistive since las
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

The Kiwi dollar calmly traded during the session on Wednesday as the 24-hour exponential moving average continued receiving some type of support. Meanwhile, the 0.71 region still offers some psychological resistance, however, a break over the area is expected very soon. The pullbacks provide a buying opportunity since all moving averages are bullish and the level below 0.70 lured the attention of market players as it appeared to be large, round and an important psychological number. With this, the pullback seems valuable not until a breakdown under 0.70 occurred. And the market could probably be sold because the NZD beat a relative currency, the Australian dollar. The noise was prevalent as the chart shows that we are in an uptrend.

Moreover, the market would probably chop with a mild bias going upwards and at the same time, there is a possibility for a “long, slow grind higher” to take place.

As the New Zealand currency strengthened against its cousin, AUD, you may opt to buy this along with an Asian currency except that you refers to the selloff in JPY pair.
 
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