Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar broke the 0.75 resistance level during Tuesday session. Although, this was reversed with signs of support in the lower channel being tested again which would most likely go higher.

The price consolidation lower than the 0.75 level is being supportive that makes buying lows as a wise move in this pair. The support moves until 0.7450 region and it would be best to wait until it breaks lower before selling this pair.

The gold market attempts to break higher during the day of the trading session which would have an effect to the Aussie. When the gold rises and breaks higher than the $1300 level, it would give a bullish sentiment in the market and could trigger to move higher. Moreover, it seems that the market has changed its focus on Aussie where formerly the New Zealand dollar outpaces it in the market.

The GDP data from Australia to be released today would have an impact to this pair. Nevertheless, buyers are dominating the market.

It is best to wait for the price to break lower than the 0.7450 region before shorting this pair. Despite the volatility in the market, the positive momentum remains positive in the succeeding trading sessions. However, the impulsiveness of the market in the past few days has slowed down the rate of the market.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 8, 2017

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a very intermittent trading action within a very limited range, and although the currency pair had a single clear move amidst the haze of its incessant ranging and consolidation, the market chose to interpret the currency pair’s movement as very choppy ahead of Super Thursday. Although the EUR/USD pair did manage to move towards the bottom rungs of 1.2200 points, it was almost immediately met with large-scale buying, causing the pair to retreat towards over 1.1250 where it is currently located.

This downtrend in the EUR/USD pair was mostly due to reports that Draghi could possibly make amendments to the central bank’s inflation targets but was immediately reversed after another report came out which hinted at Draghi being very hawkish with regards to overall growth. These kinds of speculations are usually expected during a very big trading day like today, although the real deal is expected to happen during today’s trading session. The UK snap elections is one of the highlights of today’s session, and although the Conservatives seem to have the upper hand as of the moment, the essential factor here would be the margin of victory and this will have an effect on the value of the euro. Next up is the ECB rate announcement, wherein the central bank is expected to maintain its rates, which will be followed by the ECB’s press conference where the market will be closely monitoring whether Draghi’s statement will be hawkish or otherwise. James Comey’s testimony is also another thing to watch today as this will reveal whether Trump had any involvement with the Russian probe which could cause a drop in the USD. The 1.1300 point range has been the pair’s key level for the past weeks and due to repeated attempts and failures of breaking through this range, a target of 1.1500 could be easily reached if the pair would be able to surpass 1.1300 points.

Due to several events happening today, the market is expected to be highly volatile and traders are advised to stay away from the sidelines first and wait for all the fanfare to subside before making any trades.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 8, 2017

The GBP/USD pair chose to remain cautious and remain within the sidelines during yesterday’s session, although what should excite the pair’s bulls more is that the cable pair was able to stay afloat over its critical support range of 1.2900 points throughout yesterday. Although the pair momentarily dipped at just under this range, it was immediately met with a lot of buying and this caused the pair to return to its original range and is now trading at just above 1.2950 points ahead of Super Thursday.

The UK snap elections is set to commence today and while several opinion polls paint a pretty picture as far as the Conservatives are concerned, the margin of victory is actually the most important part of the polls. Anything less than a widely-spaced victory would be considered as a major failure for Theresa May as this could prove all her efforts to be futile and might have a negative effect on the status of the sterling pound. But then again, this will all boil down to just how big of a majority May will be able to garner at the end of the elections. A bigger majority would be more beneficial for the pound and this will then dictate the price action of the pound in the short term. The 1.3000 point-range of the GBP/USD pair has been a very critical range for the pair for the longest time, and repeated attempts to go past this range will be a formidable barrier before the pair can advance towards 1.3400 points. If the pound becomes bearish, then this could cause the pair to drop towards 1.2750 points and even 1.2500 points depending on how negative the results of the polls are for May.

In addition to all of this, Comey will also be making his testimony today and this is expected to put more downward pressure on the dollar, although if Comey refuses to indict Trump, then this could serve as a breather for the USD. All in all, this day is expected to be a very volatile trading day for the GBP/USD pair.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 8, 2017

The EURUSD edged lower, however, bounced off from Wednesday’s support prior the meeting of the European Central Bank scheduled tomorrow along with the leak regarding ECB will lower down inflation predictions.

Moreover, the bund yields decline causing the single European currency to become unattractive and yet traders raise concerns with concerns to the forward guidance of the bank as this could lead the pair to a higher stance.

Additionally, the United Kingdom would likely do polling considering the presidential race tightened significantly but decreased by 18 points roughly because PM Theresa May had announced a snap general election. The pull out made by May would likely result to another hung parliament bringing a chaotic Brexit.

The pair rebounded at 1.221 support close to the 10-day moving average. While resistance highlighted the 1.1284 region around the weekly highs. The next aim for resistance is the level 1.1299 near the highs of November 8.

Momentum appeared to be neutral considering the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to print within the zero-index level. The histogram is positioned also close to zero with a flat trajectory which suggest for further consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) showed a neutral stance as it prints at 64 found on the higher end of the neutral range.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 8, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had a bullish trading action during yesterday’s session after the pair struggled to go beyond its critical resistance range located at the 1.3500-1.3530 range. But so far, this region has managed somewhat to escape the wrath of the pair’s bulls. But now that there are several important economic events lined up for today’s session, the USD/CAD pair could go in either direction which makes trading generally unsafe at least for today.

As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading at just over 1.3500 points as the market is preparing itself for the slew of geopolitical events happening within the day. The surge in the pair’s value during the previous session was mostly due to a drop in oil prices after the US inventory data released yesterday showed a significant inventory progression paired with ambivalent expectations. This means that oil continues to be sold off while inventory and production remain at its range highs, which is pretty bad news for the loonie. This caused the USD/CAD pair to exceed 1.3500 points. However, the pair’s bears managed to redeem themselves via a selloff at the 1.3530 trading range which has stemmed any upward move in the currency pair at least for now. Now that oil prices are expected to remain weak in the coming days, the Canadian dollar would possibly remain under pressure, although a speaking engagement from Poloz and the release of Canadian employment data today might help the CAD to improve its outlook. The Comey testimony will also determine the short-term price action for the USD, and it seems that the market is in for a very interesting trading day today.

Aside from the BoC speech and the release of the Canadian employment data, there are no expected news from the Canadian economy while other geopolitical events within the international sphere are not expected to have any significant effect on the USD/CAD pair. However, traders are still strongly advised against making any active trades today and instead wait out the events before engaging in any trade decisions.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 8, 2017

The New Zealand dollar dropped in the beginning of Wednesday session. There is a sufficient support found in the 24-hour EMA in the hourly chart sufficient to reverse the trend to move higher. It seems that the pair would try to reach the 0.72 region and above. A breakout would be the best deal as this makes the start of buying again similar with staying in the lows and how long can it be maintained on yesterday trading.

The pair could further rise if the commodity market, regardless of its type, steadies as it gains strength. It could be the CRB or the ETF outside of the U.S. that are still part of the commodity market as a whole.

Buying on the lows is still ideal for this pair despite its breakdown during the Wednesday session. The 0.7150 is found to be supportive especially the 0.71 handle. Hence, it won’t be long before the buyers dominate the market again considering its value when retreated to lower levels.

Consequently, there will be volatility seen in the trend from time to time which is an opportunity for bulls waiting for a chance to sell this pair when the Kiwi recovers.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017

The British currency weakened throughout Thursday’s session because the Parliament election became the center of interest. As of this writing, the Conservative Party appeared to take a few seats, so expect that the market will start to solidify gradually. Moreover, the 1.29 handle down seems supportive and a rebound from the market is not a surprise at all.

The market are trailing within the uptrend channel but the result from the election is not yet released, therefore there is a tendency for it to change in haste. It further preferred to continue buying on dips as we go searching for the area above 1.3050 which is said to be resistive.

A break on top of it will move the market near 1.3450 region which could be the target in the longer-term. This will kept intact unless a massive state from the election came in. nevertheless, it does not necessarily mean that there is a simple way to move there, hence this might be the way towards a longer-term position. Having said that, buy on the dips will continue and lots of in and out trading will be recognized over the following weeks.

A breakdown beneath the 1.29 mark won’t indicates a selling position as there is much support on the diverging levels down through the 1.2750 range.

Lastly, the market contains an upward bias and the course will remain to be driven by headlines relative to what was discussed in the Brexit referendum. This could be a tough one and buyers could possibly take an upper hand.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 9, 2017

The events happened yesterday unexpectedly wrought a slight impact against the USD/CAD, as well as to other currency pairs. However, there are predictions that it would be an explosive day yesterday due to incidents lined up while traders work late at night to secure a safe position and to keep their trades well but everything turned out to be less impressive and unexciting.

The said events are as follows; the decision of ECB to hold its rates paired with the announcement on inflation targets and increasing growth outlook, though it is obviously has nothing to do with the pair. Next is the testimony of Comey after he accused US President Trump with lots of things.

These scenarios were unable to move the dollar and any movement only indicates an insignificant strengthening of the greens that lead the USDCAD near 1.35.

In relation to the Canadian dollar, BOC Governor Poloz delivered a speech expressing his delight about the current condition of their economy. He also stated that he was comfortable regarding the price trend in the housing industry. The neutral tone strike by Poloz reflected towards the commodity-linked pair which continuously trades in a steady and unspecified direction.

Later this day, the Canadian employment figures is anticipated to be release that would likely cause volatility. If the report showed a stronger result, it would help the pair to reach the lows of its tight range close to the 1.3450 level.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017

The EURUSD drove downwards as the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the interest rates on a steady pace coupled with dropped easing bias. This further took a neutral position with regards the way they will see the monetary policy.

The schedule for quantitative easing remained unchanged while rates should be expected to retain its recent levels as reflected in the transcripts.

The pair moved near the support shown at 1.1220 mark that lies around the 10-day moving average which currently serves as the resistance in the near-term. Further resistance sits at 1.1285 region close to the weekly highs. An ascending sloping trendline is found at 1.1140 area. Meanwhile, the momentum turned towards the negative territory and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover signal to sell prompted by the intersection of the spread under the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from positive en route the negative grounds and confirmed a sell signal.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar performed well during the Thursday session. It seems that the market will roll over from here. There is a descending triangle formed on the hourly chart. If the price breaks down, then the trend would go down towards 0.75 and below. This would attract buyers to return in the market.

Another possible option is a break over the 0.7560 region, this would induce the price to break in in the upper channel. Moreover, the price is trying to break as gold market has an effect on the Australian dollar while currently, the market is on the lie lows and quite inactive.

For long-term, the trend gives off a bullish tone that keeps the Aussie market to keep from falling apart anytime. The GDP data is also stronger than expected that supports the currency pair.

Traders who like to buy in lows have to be patient. The market will persist to have choppiness directed upward. One could opt to place orders slowly since there is a lot of noise found in the chart.

The copper market was seen to move in uphill during the day. It is important to the Australia as exporters throughout Asia which would most likely affect the long-term rates. Hence, it may not be wise to sell this pair for now.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017

Traders encountered high volatility during the Thursday session due to the major events that affected both currencies for the day. One is the U.K. Parliamentary election and the other is the ECB interest rate decision about to be discussed. Besides the decision alone, other comments during the meeting would be equally significant especially about the topics of quantitative easing.

Currently, it seems that the British pound is leading against the British pound which is not surprising because of the election and it looks like the Conservative is dominating the trend.

It seems that the market will continue to have high volatility as the market focuses on the headlines. With the ongoing Brexit, it is not surprising to have volatility in the market which will most likely continue to affect the pair every now and then. It might need a few days to soothe the market to manage real money in here. As of now, the trend is currently moving towards the 0.86 level for short-term.

It is too early to tell which the direction this pair would go and a blank guess could be disastrous as a single move is significant for a short period of time. Let us hope that the market will settle down come Monday trading session.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017

The British pound paired against the Japanese yen had a volatile session during the Thursday session. This is not surprising because of the U.K. parliamentary elections. Although, traders are not sure what is the general attitude of the market regarding Brexit leaving uncertainty in investors.

Towards the end of the day, the pair rallies forward with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to the 142.75 handle. Low levels have been higher which could continue to go up. The 143 region is starting to be strongly resistive and if the market is successful in breaking this level, the price could move higher. As of now, the market is still in consolidation.

However, if the price fell down to the 142 handle, there are more buyers interested in this pair. If the market is successful to break out in the upper channel, it will suggest a “risk on/off” sentiment which is a common reaction here. Traders should be cautious to avoid losses since they could incur bigger losses if not careful. Same goes for the USD/JPY pair and position in smaller trades which is relevant for this pair.

Nevertheless, it is also a good move to buy the pair for long-term but still with some caution before posting large orders since the market is still unstable. It is safer to wait until next week or after the results of U.K. election.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

The European Central Bank decided to stabilize the apple cart and did not talk about the withdrawal of Quantitative Easing turning the focus towards the talks regarding Brexit and politics. Italian elections were delayed which helped yields from Italy to decline on the back of an extensive narrowing of spreads followed by the dovish remarks pronounced by M. Draghi. However, lots of political challenges remain in the future.

The anti-European forces appeared to be inactive while in Catalonia, Spain threatens the stability of the Spanish country due to the independence referendum planned for October 1.

The debt relief of Greece continue to hang in the Euro region and this is the expected major topic in the EU meeting scheduled on Thursday.

The EURUSD tried to move higher but failed to reacquire its previous resistance found at 1.1227 level close to the 10-day moving average.

The exchange rate indicates the second day of the Doji formation that further shows uncertainties where the close and open levels are in the same range.

Moreover, the pair seems to generate a head and shoulder reversal pattern which starts to produce the right shoulder followed by the left and lastly the head which resistance region entered the 1.1285 area.

Prices in the previous weeks failed to break 1.1299 mark seen around the November 8 highs. The major’s near-term support holds 1.1109 near the lows of May 29.

The momentum became negative since the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) develops a sell signal to take a crossover. It emerged because the spread crosses underneath the 9-day exponential moving average. The histogram shifted to negative grounds from the positive territory establishing a sell signal. The index also prints in the read paired with a descending trajectory that points towards a lower rate of the EUR/USD.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

The British currency has an insignificant performance during Monday opening as the Europeans came back from behind. There is a gapped in the level 1.2750 and broke down towards the 1.2650 region. The market persists to show a massive bullish pressure considering that uncertainties wrought from the election will probably influence the sterling in general.

With this, the rallies could possibly provide some selling opportunities, however, a break on top of 1.28 region signals a bullish stance. And the market will move near above the 1.29 handle. Volatility is highly expected because of the trends influenced by headlines.

The sell rallies will continue on short-term charts which give indicators of exhaustion.

In case the bearish pressure remains, the market will come under 1.25 handle and keep on struggling because of indecisions on the United Kingdom along with the interest rate hikes to be implemented by the United States later this year

There are few reasons that GBPUSD will keep to struggle and decline. A slice over 1.28 handle will favor for a buying position.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

A negative sentiment presides the market especially for the Canadian dollar and U.S. dollar pair on Monday session. Although the Canadian dollar is gaining strength because of stronger-than-expected employment data last in the previous week. However, the market has to be mindful of the oil market which is not performing well. It is not far from happening that traders will sell this soon.

The price trend is near to the base of the consolidation area instead of being on top. It is highly possible for the trend to remain in consolidation as how it has been in the past few days. Higher than the 1.3550 region serves as a resistance level but it won’t take long before the market breaks it especially if the oil market spiraled down.

It might not be advisable to sell this pair unless the pair breaks lower than the said 1.3350 region which is strongly supportive, followed by a rally due to the oil market. However, this could not happen and will most likely climb higher instead. Although, we could not tell if this will stop and persist after the breakout.

There is high volatility in the market but it seems that the trend will not favor the buyers since there is strong support found below. Moreover, it won’t be too long when the oil market plunge down which continue to put pressure on the market.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

The Euro against the British pound move sideways during the Monday session. It broke above the 0.88 handle as the market continues to sell off the currency. This is a significant move while it seems that the market is not ready to retreat. Pullbacks would then attract more buyers and the 0.88 region below continues to be supportive.

However, if the price breaks lower and the gap is filled, this could send the price lower as low as 0.8650 and lower. Some pullbacks would open buying opportunities indicating massive support below. There is still a possibility to move higher towards the 0.90 level which hints as a significant psychological level.

The British currency has depreciated which drags the pair more than the other. On the other hand, the Euro is steadily moving in the market. The impulsive action is most likely driven by the pound more than other aspects. The uncertainty persists in the market which entails the pair could climb higher.

The 0.90 region gives off a significant resistance and a break over this would provide more long-term opportunities. It may not be wise to sell this pair since there are other things to consider in selling off this pair. However, if the pair breaks in the base of the breakdown, this would significantly shift the movement which could induce selling and this is not gonna be good for the pair.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 13, 2017

The EURUSD lost its strength on Friday because of the news regarding the elections in Great Britain along with its unexpected results that prevailed over the headlines within that day which both brought an effect towards the single European currency.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, the elections will only be concerned by the United Kingdom but there is a tendency that the euro will also be affected since the election results can make an impact on the Brexit process and further negotiations.

The Conservatives were unsuccessful to gain the majority as opposed to the predictions which are an advantage to the side of the Eurozone, this caused them to get into a tighter spot contrarily to their desired position. With this, it is assured that the expected PM would become very weak as Theresa May or any other candidate is going to take the position for the negotiations together with the European leaders while the opportunity to change things is very limited.

Obviously, the EU leaders are eager to begin the discussion immediately. The EUR did not decline because of this as the 1.1200 level appeared to be a correction in the uptrend and not a change in any action.

This caused the pair to rebound through the support level 1.1165 and currently trailed over 1.12 as of this moment.

According to projections, the major will remain trading stronger in the near-term as the 1.13 serves as the ceiling while waiting for the FOMC this week.

There is no big news for today, either from EU or US, but consolidation should be anticipated.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar swayed sideways during Monday session. Buyers were able to reach the 0.7550 region or over although there is a bit of resistance. It will most likely climb higher since the price broke out towards the 0.76 level.

Some reversals could offer opportunities that give off volatility on the market in the next few sessions. The overall direction is upward as shown in the chart. The sideways is an indication of market hesitation and trying to settle their positions before making the next move in the upper channel.

Traders should monitor the gold market as there is an implication of it being supportive. If the gold market rallies, Australian dollar follows. Moreover, the Aussie gives off a risk appetite interest to traders while the gold market remains a safety asset. This would also support the Australian dollar.

The market is now reaching for 0.77 handle and above while the 0.80 level is the long-term target overall. The 0.75 region remains supportive and pullbacks open opportunities but send off bullish sentiment in the market. Yet, there will still be choppiness in the market. In trading this pair, patience is much needed to gain profits.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

The USD/CAD pair exhibited a very weak price action during the previous trading session as there were no fundamental releases which could help in propping up the status of the currency pair. However, the currency pair might be able to redeem itself within the day once the FOMC releases its rate announcement and statement later on, although this could possibly be more of a downward movement for the pair.

As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair could possibly continue its bearish price action at least until the medium term after the Bank of Canada declared that it will be making adjustments with regards to its overall outlook on the country’s economic and fiscal policies. Moreover, the central bank also hinted at a shift in its outlook with regards to its rates after the BoC decided to resume increasing its interest rates, which is a complete reversal of its current policy of cutting back on its rates. This recent move from the BoC shows the bank’s confidence with regards to the overall state of the Canadian economy. This is also a manifestation of the recent slew of Canadian economic data which all showed a marked improvement within the country’s economy. Although there were some concerns with regards to housing and banking, these were handled almost immediately and has enabled the country’s central bank to maintain its focus on the state of the economy. This has all contributed to the bullish undertone of the Canadian dollar and has caused the CAD to surge in value in spite of a recent drop in oil prices.

For today’s session, the market will be focusing on the FOMC rate announcement, and a hawkish statement from the Fed could cause the USD/CAD pair to correct towards 1.3300 points, although it is likely that this move would be a mere bounce and the currency pair could resume its downward price action with 1.3100 as its next short-term goal.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

The GBP/USD pair was finally able to make some significant headway amidst a highly volatile trading session yesterday after suffering from the adverse effects brought about by the results of the UK snap elections. As the Conservative bloc failed to get the number of majority they initially aimed for, this created uncertainties and risks within the market and has put the cable pair under severe downward pressure.

But yesterday’s session served as a breather for the GBP/USD pair as uncertainties within the country’s government formation are now starting to get sorted out, thus enabling the cable pair to push past towards 1.2700 points. The talks between the DUP and the Conservatives has so far produced positive results, and it seems now that this alliance will be maintained at least until the Conservatives need to work on several issues, including government formations. One such issue is the looming Brexit talks, with Theresa May staying defiant and believing that she will be able to push through with the Brexit talks in spite of political turmoil and calls for her resignation from her current post as UK Prime Minister. However, May still has to prepare herself as she will possible be faced by several hostile EU leaders who will want to take advantage of May’s position as well as the UK’s current international standing. In addition, Scotland is again on the brink of instigating another independence referendum, and all of these risks are expected to weigh on the sterling pound both in the medium term and long term. down

For today’s session, the market will be focusing on the Fed’s next move with regards to its planned interest rate hike. If the Fed pushes through with its rate hike, then the market will be looking at the FOMC statement next in order to look for clues with regards to the schedule of the next rate hike. If the statement comes out as bullish, then the dollar could further increase in value and the sterling pound might again drop and could possibly revert to its range lows.
 
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