Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 7, 2017

The British currency went to a volatile session on Thursday and traded sideways, however, returned to the 1.2980 region and test the region 1.2930 another time.

The market also contained significant amount of support under the 1.29 mark and attempts to touch the 1.30 area eventually. This is an area that could offer massive resistance and extends towards 1.3050, but a cut through over that level enable the market to climb higher near the longer-term target at 1.3450

Remember that the Nonfarm Payroll is released every first friday of the month which is today, therefore, the US dollar is expected to have plenty movement in general. An ability to break down from this point, we shall see the 1.28 region to provide support. The area below there will affect the sterling pound.

The pullbacks could possibly have some value opportunities showing a strong uptrend. A break down beneath the 1.28 range will initiate buying the dips on the candles that looks supportive. This could be difficult enough to stay in a trend for a relative amount of time not until a cut over the massive resistance found at the 1.3050 region.

When this happens, winning positions could be improved to the upside. Otherwise, a breakdown under the 1.28 will urge to the market to look for 1.26.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 7, 2017

The bond markets of the Euro area was got hit by the Taper tantrum driving the 10-year bund yield over the 0.5% mark and through the highest level of 0.56% in earlier 2016. This lift the EURUSD in testing the resistance.

The remarks of Praet of the ECB urges caution and patience towards the monetary policy which slightly moved to prevent the increase in the sell-off in yields.

The FOMC minutes indicates fear of officials regarding the unfavorable market trends with concerns to policy comments. This further explains the desire of Draghi and Praet to maintain the QE easing bias in place, although the tapering is anticipated to begin early 2018.

The ECB is unofficially neutral which is the issue, however, the global policy makers state that the monetary policy support surged. The dovish signals are not really reliable because they still deemed that the central bank is planning for an exit moves next year.

The pair edged higher creating a bull flag formation which is a pause that stimulates upward. The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 level around the peaks of June while support entered the 1.1368 area close to the 10-day moving average. The momentum appeared to positive, but the MACD trajectory is flat which indicates a consolidation.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 07, 2017

The New Zealand dollar had a volatility trading session on Thursday. It declined in the beginning but was able to recover those losses. Hereinafter, the price further decline breaking the 0.7250 psychological level. A significant support was found under the 0.72 handle.

In the current condition, it seems that there will be choppiness moving to and fro due to the jobs data which will have a bigger impact on the risk appetite and the U.S. dollar in overall.

There is massive resistance found beyond the 0.73 level and if the market successfully breaks this region, the price could go down towards the 0.7350 region. The volatility persists to be high driven by the least liquidity of the New Zealand dollar of all the major currencies globally.

Trading in small positions is the ideal strategy for this pair but the presence of an impulsive candle in the daily timeframe leastwise or if not, in the weekly time frame to have a serious money flow.

It would not be easy to trade the NZD/USD pair in any size so traders should be observant or wait on the sidelines until a clear hint was seen before jumping in the market. Short-term scalping here and now is the best that the market could offer as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintain its neutral stand when it comes to its monetary policies.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 07, 2017

The British pound surged in the beginning of Thursday session. This was reversed as the 147 region was being resistive to halt the uptrend. Instead, a breakdown occurred at 146.50 level. There is also a massive support found seen in the past several sessions. Moreover, the Nonfarm Payroll data will be released today which will bring volatility to the market.

If a pullback occurred, the next major support level will be at 145 region which is presumed to gain more attention. A breakdown would be indicative of a negative outlook which could much lower towards the 144 level. On a brighter side, an uptrend is will still be possible and the selloff of the Japanese yen will continue.

The employment data will have a great impact on the USD/JPY pair as well as the GBP/JPY pair. If the results came out strongly that induced sellers to join the Japanese yen market which will eventually affect this pair.

If a fresh new high is achieved, the market could reach up to 150 handle. Although it may take some weeks to reach the said level amid a highly volatile environment and some issues in the market as a whole. However, if a breakdown occurred lower than the 145 level, buyers will dominate the market again as it reaches the 144 handle and down to the 142 level.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 10, 2017

The EURUSD consolidated on Friday, the same time that NFP report was released which brought volatility towards the market. While the pair ended up in a tight range and does not have any indications for further moving in whatever direction in the near future.

The NFP data from the US showed that jobs increased more than the anticipated result and had a trend reversal on the sluggish employment statistics. This could possibly be the support for the dollar bulls since the average hourly earnings failed to surge based on expectations. This caused the price action to become choppy during the release of data and this continues until Friday. The data was mixed considering that growth in employment was balanced by the decline in earnings which further revealed a mixture picture of the economy.

The single European currency remained to trade in a strong manner, generally, because of the clear signs that the European Central Bank could probably deal with tapering in the near future.

This optimistic outlook of the euro area is absolutely different to the chaos that prevails in the United States since there is a delay in the passage of the new healthcare reform bill which will last for weeks.

It clearly indicates that the administration of Trump is going to face difficulty to imply major amendment and the policy paralysis has the tendency to impact the American economy in the long term.

Ultimately, we await the reaction of the market towards the mixed figures issued on Friday and know the scenario of the politics in the US. Besides, no economic news is scheduled for today, thus, consolidation is expected within the range top found at 1.1440.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The GBPUSD moved sideways amid Friday trades in daytime, however, had a nosedive on the back of stronger than anticipated American job figures.

As of this writing, we are positioned under the 1.29 region, and it shows that the downward movement will continue to move below the 1.28 mark. This is an area that offers plenty of support and should test the form downtrend line of the daily chart for it could also be significantly supportive.

The market would likely to resume its choppiness due to news releases, hence market participant should keep this in mind. A successful break down beneath 1.28 handle will open the possibility that the market would be much easier to go short, then would search for the 1.26 handle.

The market has maintained a volatile condition because the headlines do not have not clearly understand the Brexit negotiations. With that being said, it is recommended not to engage much in this market heedless of your trading course because it cou
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The EURUSD traded sideways during Friday’s trading and experienced a session with high volatility since US job figures took a longer time than the anticipated. Nevertheless, as the session ends it appeared that the pair begins to demonstrate stronger stance once again while the weekly candle generates a hammer formation.

The market would likely make an attempt to reach the 1.15 region where a significant resistance was seen in the past 3 years. Ability to break above it and a daily or weekly close would indicate a bullish sign showing that the market is apt to resume to go near the 1.18 handle.

Having said that, the market is currently in the “buy on the dips” condition in the near-term.

In case that the 1.15 handle was able to be broken down, it will suggest a major signal that the downward trend has ended. On one side, buyers will consider the single European currency in the longer-term or maybe tries to push it up towards the higher levels.

This is a situation where the Fed is thinking about the increase in interest rates, however, the European Central Bank recently mentioned the tightening of monetary policy which is quite surprising. With this, the pair requires some rebalancing which we have been witnessed. Otherwise, a break down under the 1.1350 area will test the 1.13 level and a breakdown below that point will consider the 1.11 mark eventually.

The overall market seems equal and buyers are currently in the driver’s seat.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.

A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.

The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market, the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.

The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.

When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.

Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 10, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar weakened on Friday last week because of below expectations manufacturing production data from the U.K. Although, the U.S. dollar has a higher value due to improved NFP data. This resulted in a faster correction of the pair which is necessary for the pair following several increases in the past few weeks. This has still reach highs of the range that lead to a correction.

The negative in the manufacturing data has put the pound bulls in dismay which was anticipated to continue the positive flow and attempt to lift the price range much higher to reflect that it soared to the upside. This has reversed the strong data from the U.K. over the past few months. There is also a tendency for the resignation of the U.K. prime minister May that indicates the political conflict has not been completely settled. This is not necessarily needed by U.K. as it proceeds with the negotiation with the Euro representatives over Brexit but they don’t have any other reasons to blame.

Better than anticipated outcome for the NFP data has alleviated concerns on negative data from the U.S. which was the trend in the past few months. However, traders are anxious on whether the Fed Reserve would raise its hikes amid the current situation. Nevertheless, the FOMC minutes indicated clearly that the next rate hike would be relative to the incoming data that makes that employment report to essential. The strong data pushed the price of the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.29 level which the former close of the week.

For today, the traders are expected to respond to the U.S. labor data on Friday on the first day of the week. It is anticipated to give off a bearish tone.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The New Zealand dollar declined during the week. The 0.7350 level gives a significant resistance level and if the market successfully breaks out then the price could further go towards the 0.75 handle. This opens the risk for a market roll over which was extended over time.

The central bank of New Zealand positions in a neutral stance which will weigh on the New Zealand dollar but if the risk appetite returns, then the kiwi will climb higher. Henceforth, the market will move higher if there are sufficient reasons to support this especially if it rallies in the stock market and the commodity market. If the price breaks over the 0.75 level and higher, this would push the price much higher towards the 0.7750 level.

A pullback from this region would open buying opportunities especially if the price declines lower than the 0.7250 level. This would be much more interesting if it reaches the 0.72 handle and the 0.70 level which are whole numbers.

The impulsiveness of the marker will propel the price to move higher. However, in the long-term chart, there was a lot of selling opportunity for the pair as how it was in the past.

Consequently, it needs more time to gain some momentum to break higher and pullback will not be unexpected. Despite the market being in the overbought area, it remains steadfast and further goes up to a much higher level when there is enough drive.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 14, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar surged during the Thursday session attaining the 0.7350 level. It successfully broke slightly extended followed by a pullback as the resistance level wavers. However, signs of reversal called in buyers to try and hold over this trend.

If the market was able to sustain the 0.7350 level above, this opens more buying opportunity and attempt to push it towards the 0.75 handle in the upside. On the other hand, if the volatility persists in the overall trend, the market will target for the 0.73 support level.

The market will remain choppy regardless of the direction the market takes since the New Zealand dollar has lesser volumes compared to other major currencies worldwide. However, buying the dips could still be bargained. A daily close above the 0.7350 level would be a good move as of the moment. The 0.75 level remains significant in the long-term charts which determine the next target.

Traders should also monitor the commodity market which would have a great impact on the New Zealand dollar particularly to the agricultural sector. If the market breaks below the 0.7275 region, it could further go down towards the 0.72 level. Nevertheless, the market remains to be volatile but the buyers will jump in and take advantage of the situation to
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 14, 2017

As the EURUSD whipsawed on Thursday, the pair continued to move lower after the U.S. jobless claims report exceed expectations while U.S Producer Price Index came in stronger, as well.

The expected figures for European inflation were unable to buoy the euro which has a weak stance for the past two consecutive trading session.

The euro-dollar trailed downwards amid EU hours, however, rebounded during the North American session with an overwhelming inflation data. The exchange rate spent the day around the 10-day moving average found at the level 1.1401. It is bounded to test the support region near the upward sloping trend line next to 1.1315 mark.

The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 area near the highs in July. Meanwhile, the momentum became negative following the crossover sell signal generated by the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram. It was triggered by the spread of the 12-day exponential moving average subtracted by the 26-day exponential moving average, that cross over below the 9-day exponential moving average.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The Australian currency rallied during Tuesday trading session on daytime and broke the 0.79 handle. The market broke out to the upside and appeared to go moving upwards.

After breaking the level above 0.7750, which is really bullish, the market would likely resume to trailed higher and eventually, the next target is found at 0.80 region.

Shorting the market is not ideal as the pullback still have a value. This is basically true since the gold market also rallied since the Aussie acts a proxy for the gold markets. It seems that value hunters will remain present in this market.

The level below 0.7750 is expected to be the floor in this market and staying at that point will be a buyer.

A pull back is needed to establish a stable momentum in order for the 0.80 region be best-selling, however, it may take some time to reach that zone.

It is recommended to buy pullbacks and the market could go to the upside when the break out will persist. A move over the 0.80 region enables buyer to enter the market and expand their positions
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the Tuesday session as a continuation of the downtrend. The pair bounces off later but there will be sufficient amount of resistance found close to the 1.27 level. A formation of an exhaustive candle would signal selling of the pair.

A rally of the oil market would support the trend following the Crude oil inventories report which would be beneficial for loonies. It would not be wise to buy this pair and break higher than the 1.28 handle which is far from happening. Not long ago, the market the broke out significantly because of the rate hike from the Bank of Canada.

Bond trading has been pushing the currency and shorting of bonds. The trend could go much lower towards the 1.25 handle and even lower to 1.24 level below. Predominantly, there is a sell off in the market as the pair rallies instead of buying.

The market is negative in general which will most likely persist for some time unless the market crumbles which would be a warning sign. As seen in the chart, there are more selling opportunities found in the market. The location of the support level is not clear and there are still plenty of levels that could go much lower below.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fell during the Tuesday session as it approached the 112 level and further declines soon after. The market attempted to break out higher than the psychological level later for the day which possibly moves towards the 112.30 level that could push this market directed to the 113 handle.

A breakout to the said level will lead in the direction of the 114.50 level. There will also be volatility in the market which would be influenced by the global risk appetite. The interest rate differential would favor the U.S. dollar but would shift its focus on the Federal Reserve and its increase in interest rate after some time. The expectations have calmed down that is connected to the downfall of the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese currency garners attention as it is subtle which was sold off against a basket of currencies worldwide. However, a break below the support level from this session could send the price towards 110 level as the next target of support. The 110 level is being supportive and would turn bullish after a break down from this area. For the long term, it is presumed to be going up and furthermore if given enough time. For short term, the trend will move bearishly but when the inflationary data from the U.S. would be released which would reverse the market trend.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The EURUSD declined as the European government bonds moved higher while the yields retreated near their American counterparts.

The downturn of the European yields versus treasuries put pressure on the forward curve which further weighs on the euro-dollar pair.

The report of the European Central Bank for tomorrow has the potential to have some changes from June, however, there are news that the officials are planning for tapering options for a decision in the fall has demonstrated that the peripheral debt and equity markets in the Eurozone performed less well than expected.

The pair edged lower from Tuesday peaks and broke out to the renewed 13-month highs.

The support came in at 1.1450 mark which is close to the 10-day moving average. The prices are able to consolidate and generated bull flag formation which is a respite that stimulates higher.

The momentum moved on the positive side as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index established a crossover signal to buy. The spread causes this to happen as it crossed over the 9-day exponential moving average of the spread. Moreover, the histogram shifted to the positive from the negative zone indicating a buy signal
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session followed by a breakdown towards 112 level. It further goes down towards the 111.50 region where sellers are anticipated to be seen. The 111 level offers sufficient support although the “real” support is found around the 110 handle.

This area is presumed to have a buying pressure while the short-term sellers will persist on pushing the price down. As long as it stays over the 112.50 region, the sellers will have the leverage. If the market successfully breaks above the said level, the trend could be reversed and reach towards the 113 handle. A break above it would then push the price towards 114 level.

The 112 level is a significant level in this chart and the market will persist to be highly volatile. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar will be at a disadvantage because of interest rate issue. Overall, the market will proceed with a selloff as the trend rallies.

For the long term, buyers can be seen close to the 110 handle in consideration of technical outlook. Volatility will remain which is usually the case and the pair will persist to be highly sensitive to the major news will be released from the Federal Reserve. It is possible to for both buyers and sellers to get what they want after some time. There are different positions possible for various traders as the volatility picks up in the market.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The New Zealand dollar attempted to move uphill during the Wednesday session but the 0.7375 is a strong barrier. This was followed by a pulled back directed towards the 0.7350 level below. This is an area where buyers are coming back as it is where it broke out before.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was a concern as the New Zealand dollar tries to trade in short positions towards 0.75 psychological level. This has a big influence on the price and is largely resistive. Hence, short-term buying of pullbacks is the way to move forwards and it is best to wait until it breaks below the 0.73 level before shorting this pair.

Volatility will continue in the market. As for the U.S. dollar, this is being sold off against other currencies worldwide which is most likely similar to other markets. Choppiness will stay longer in this market as it is expected to move to and fro regarding the greenback as a whole. The 0.73 below is massively supportive.

The target would be at 0.75 level which is massively resistive. If the market breaks above the said level, the New Zealand dollar would stay in a “buy and hold” situation. Selling should be put on hold as it breaks lower than the 0.7275 handle which is not a good sign and push this market lower directed to 0.72 level below.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.
 
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