Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the annou

ncement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.

During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.

Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 15, 2017

The USD/CAD pair was expected to exhibit a wild price action during the previous session but it surprisingly became subdued and instead chose to consolidate within a very tight range. This could possibly be caused by the pair’s already very weak price action as it has been consistently dropping in value during the past few days, with the pair’’s traders choosing instead to focus on position shifts, profit-taking, and consolidation instead of taking more risks on the USD/CAD pair. This is why the pair’s whipsawing was still somewhat muted and has enabled the currency pair to remain within a tight trading range.

However, the currency pair has managed to sink past 1.3200 points and looked to test its support levels at 1.3160 for a short period following a series of disappointing economic readings from the US economy. Both the CPI data and the retail sales data from the US economy disappointed the market and this triggered a widespread dollar selling amid worries that the Fed might rethink its decision and refrain from raising rates until the market throws up some good data. This further pressured the pair to advance towards its support range although it was able to revert later in the evening as the Fed stuck to its original plan and implemented yet another rate hike. This triggered a slew of dollar buys and has helped the USD/CAD pair to shot past 1.3200, where it is currently situated as of the moment. The currency pair could possibly inch back towards 1.3300 points, however the currency pair might stay put at least for the time being since the Canadian economy continues to improve, with the BoC looking into a possible interest rate hike in the near future.

For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The dominant market trend for today is the effect of the Fed announcement yesterday, which is expected to at least keep the USD/CAD pair in line for a few more days.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 15, 2017

The GBP/USD pair remains volatile as of the moment, with the pair’s volatility mostly stemming from events happening within the US and the UK economy as well. This is undeniably going to be a very challenging time for long traders, although volatility-loving traders would see this as a very profitable period as far as the cable pair is concerned.

During the previous session, the GBP/USD pair was able to whipsaw during the first few hours as the market initially expected a possible UK government formation although this was quickly dissipated for at least a week. In spite of an official statement coming from the UK government, the market believes that this is mostly to enable the British Parliament to invite more partners and to settle any possible conflicts between the Conservatives and the DUP. Both parties seem to have reached a common ground, and while this will serve as a breather for the sterling pound, it has yet to be seen how long this calm before the storm would last and what other factors would influence the movement of the pair. Moreover, both EU and UK officials have announced that they are ready to push through with the Brexit negotiations which are set to commence in a few days’ time. The retail sales data and the CPI data from the US economy on the other hand disappointed market players, triggering a dollar selloff following speculations that the Fed might choose to step back and re-think its stance on interest rates. This caused the GBP/USD pair to advance towards the 1.2800 trading range, although this took effect for only a few hours as the FOMC announcement came in, with the central bank announcing an interest rate hike and chose to shrug off the recent negative economic readings. This enabled the dollar to regain its losses and the GBP/USD pair is now comfortably trading at just over 1.2750 points.

For today’s trading session, the UK economy will be releasing its retail sales data, while the MPC will be releasing its rate announcement and monetary policy during the latter half of today’s session. These are all expected to increase market volatility, although it remains to be seen how the MPC will respond to the current political landscape. The MPC could possibly maintain its neutrality although this might not have an effect on the cable pair as it will continue its weak price action at least in the short term.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 15, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had a very volatile trading action during the past 24 hours as the pair reacted to the FOMC statement and Yellen’s statement. However, the market was caught off-guard by a particular bit of news which was released prior to the FOMC announcement, and this news was the main source of volatility for the EUR/USD pair.

The market was focused yesterday on the results of the FOMC rate announcement, and the CPI data and the retail sales data were initially overlooked at the sidelines. But the results of the CPI data rocked the markets, since it came in at a very disappointing reading of -0.1%. The retail sales data also failed to meet initial market expectations after it came in at a very dismal reading of -0.3%. These two sets of data were expected to have positive readings for this month, but as inflation data weakened, market players were in for an unexpected occurrence since there is now a possibility that the Federal Reserve might step back and wait for more positive readings before implementing a rate hike. This caused a dollar selloff which caused the EUR/USD pair to sink towards 1.1300 points and eventually caved in at 1.1295 points, where it was met with a lot of selling. This uptrend lasted for a couple of hours as the market braced itself for the FOMC announcement. Luckily, the Fed did not disappoint with regards to its announcement as it chose to implement a 0.25% interest rate hike. This means that the central bank’s general economic outlook was still very much positive in spite of these inflation misses. This gave the Fed a hawkish undertone and was more than enough to induce a large-scale dollar buy which caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1200 before settling at just over this particular range.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of the Swiss rates as well as the US unemployment claims data. The EUR/USD pair is expected to be tame and exhibit a consolidating price action throughout the day.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 15, 2017

The EURUSD climbed up higher during earlier session of Europe, however, the pair drive downwards amid North American session, and remained steady after the Fed announced its decision to raise the interest rates.

The U.S Fed Reserve tightened its rates by 25 basis points to a range of 1% to 1.25%. They have already confirmed that inflation slowed down but based on their economic forecast, job markets appeared to be tighter in 2018 and 2019.

The projections were unchanged as most of the officials from Fed implied further twice rate hike for this year. Moreover, the CPI and U.S. retail sales showed a lower than expected results that helped the major pair to buoyed initially.

The pair moved near the resistance which currently acts as the support touching the 1.1231 level around the 10-day moving average. Further support came in at 1.1109 region placed near the lows of May 29 while the resistance highlighted the area 1.1285.

Momentum was neutral and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) prints in the red showing a flat trajectory that indicates for a consolidation.
 
GBP/NZD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The British pound against the New Zealand dollar rebounded in its descending channel resistance as it moves towards the support region. If the base of the support region at 1.7300 handle is sustained, there is a possibility for another retest of the resistance level.

The stochastic diagrams are demonstrated the market has entered oversold area. This implies that the sellers are weakening and buyers are starting to dominate the trend. There is the least resistance found below as the 200-day Simple Moving Average is above the 100-day Simple Moving Average. The current price trend could initiate a selloff at a steeper price which could follow a break lower.

Traders are expecting for a hawkish decision from the central bank this week but are still in a better position compared to the British currency that abruptly shifted following a hawkish decision from the Bank of England. Data from the U.K. gave a mixed results although, both the inflation rates and consumer spending send off signal for policymakers to tighten its policy rates to be able to sustain growth.

Headlines about Brexit talks and the recent speech from the queen somehow gives risk in the financial market especially the concerns in hard Brexit or end it all which would then gives a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this could end up positively which would be favorable for all that brings a bullish sentiment for the pound.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar moves sideways within the trading scope between 1.3164 and 1.3308 region. The resistance is found at 1.3308 level for short-term and break out in this level would test the next key resistance level at 1.3350. If the said level at 1.3350 is sustained, then the next move will most likely from 1.3164 as a form of consolidation for a descend from 1.3793.

A downtrend towards the 1.3050 will most likely happen next, following the consolidation. The short-term support is found at 1.3164 and a breakdown from this mark would hint the extension of the downtrend.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market.

For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition.

The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 19, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had a very bearish trading session as the currency pair closed down last week’s session on a much lower note. The price action of the USD/CAD pair has been largely influenced by the dollar movement and oil prices, although last week was the week of the Canadian economy and its effect on the currency pair, which has maintained its strong stance throughout the course of last week’s session.

The drop in the value of the loonie came about when BoC official Carolyn Wilkins stated that the central bank’s previous rate hikes are already past its prime, and that the central bank could possibly implement future rate hikes. This apparent policy reversal then had a wide-reaching effect on the state of the loonie. This remark from Wilkins came as a surprise, since her statement was wholly unexpected by the market. This triggered a sudden market reaction and caused the USD/CAD pair to sink through its support range at 1.3400 points, which continued for a few more days. However, the steadying oil prices has helped to strengthen the loonie and as traders started to feel as if they made the wrong decision with the loonie and this caused the CAD to crash towards 1.3160 points before making a slight reversion towards 1.3200 towards the close of last week’s session. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair now has a bearish outlook.

For this week’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI and retail sales data while there are no releases from the US economy. If the data comes out as positive, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly advance towards 1.3000 during the course of the week.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 19, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a very volatile trading action last week although the market trend was more about the dollar than of the pound. The sterling pound has somewhat settled down after news came out that the Conservatives is already finalizing a government set up, which in turn helped to stabilize the political state of the British government and has subsequently lended support for the GBP.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has opted to go for an interest rate hike, and this caused a dollar surge as the central bank was able to meet market expectations. The GBP/USD pair then sank to its range lows at the 1.2650 region, although it had some sort of reprieve from the Bank of England after it became hawkish with regards to its future rate hikes. Although the central bank maintained its current rates, the market was surprised that three BoE officials voted in favor of a rate hike, an indication that the central bank will not hesitate to implement a rate hike if the need arises. This hawkish outlook from the BoE enabled the GBP/USD pair to advance through 1.2700 points before settling at just under 1.2800 points on the back of a disappointing housing data from the US economy.

For this week, the sterling pound will be dependent on Mark Carney’s speech with regards to the Bank of England’s stance, where is expected to announce its continued hawkishness. This would enable the cable pair to stay afloat and since the 1.2650 trading range is considered as a very strong support range, the GBP/USD pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 19, 2017

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a very volatile price action last week, although this was pretty much expected for the pair as the market reacted to the FOMC rate announcement, which brought upon a high level of liquidity into the market. As of late, the euro is among the strongest major currencies against the dollar because of a string of consistently good data from the EU economy, which was in turn recognized by both the IMF and the ECB last week. This triggered a surge in market expectations of a tapering of the ECB’s quantitative easing program, although Draghi has been naught to confirm any possible tapering measures from the central bank during these past months.

The dominant market trend last week was the Fed rate hike and other relevant data from the US economy. The US economic data has been consistently on the downside during the past two months, the most recent being the release of the retail sales data, CPI data, and housing data which all failed to meet initial market expectations. This caused a tumult within the market as investors feared that the Fed might step back and rethink its scheduled rate hike due to these very weak data. This caused the EUR/USD pair to make an advancement towards 1.1295 points, although the Fed eventually came around and pushed through with its rate hike and this has helped to tame the currency pair. The Fed also chose to shrug off the consistent weakness in the economic data of the US and instead shifted its focus on projections for the US economy’s growth. The market took this as hawkish and enable the EUR/USD pair to surpass 1.1200 points and reach the 1.1130 mark. But as the week came to a close, the market received a very weak housing data, and while this triggered a slight bounce in the currency pair, the EUR/USD pair closed down the week on a slightly lower note at under 1.1200 points, an indicator that the bulls are still dominating the EUR/USD pair.

For this week, there are no major news releases from both the US and the EU economy and the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain ranging with a bullish undertone, with 1.1300 points as the pair’s boundary.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The New Zealand currency trend upwards amid sessions on Friday, touching the 0.7250 region. The 0.72 area acts as support by which the market would likely move close to 0.73 mark in the longer-term. The pullback has to offer buying opportunities since the Kiwi demonstrated some strength in the past few months. With this, a break on top of 0.73 will then be trailed towards the 0.75 area which is also the longer-term target based on the past analysis.

The buy on dips is quite suitable to the NZ dollar as long as we remain over the level 0.72 which probably lots of traders planned as well.

Entering the 0.75 range might take some time, however, there are many buying opportunities within that region. Taking advantage on these small steps towards gain is favorable and establishing a larger position in order to obtain strong returns along with an essential range bound from the FX market in general.

Ability to breakdown underneath 0.72 region may move lower through 0.70 and this are few of the possible scenarios. A cut through below that point would mean an extremely negative position or may be driving the market near 0.68 handle. There is only roughly a 20% chance that buyers will become active.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The sterling pound had increased in a moderate manner amid Friday session, as it grinds through the 1.28 handle. This level apparently offers some resistance, however, the market seems was determined in trying to cut through on top of it. Ability to do so, will enable the market to move over the 1.29 region. Otherwise, a pullback must find another leg close the area 1.27 as this might provide some support during trading on Thursday.

The Bank of England provided support to the British currency as the bank became more hawkish which favors the GBP in general. When the market break out in the upside, it would touch the 1.3050 region.

Many long-term speculators have purchase the Great Britain pound and it is not really surprising for the returns that could drive things towards their direction.

As the year ends, the target will be at the 1.3450 level or even higher. The trend will further ascend when the UK’s government gained clarity about the EU exit.

New highs of the pound can easily be done when this issue will be cleared combined with higher-than-expected inflation figures. Contrarily, a breakdown under the level 1.2640 would push the market to a lower grounds, down to 1.25 handle.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The EURUSD have seen to crept higher on Friday, hitting the mark 1.12. The mentioned region contains plenty of noise and it remains uncertain in breaking out over the year. As the weekly chart reflects that the market appeared to confused, it is best to drop this pair at this moment. But an ability to slice on top of the 1.1225 region, the market will approach the 1.13 range eventually. A pullback to this level will push the market in reaching the 1.11 handle, en route 1.10. This might result in a volatile situation and trading with Euro is not highly recommended, better yet trade with other currencies.

Many traders were unprepared after the hawkish stance of the Fed Reserve and they are now focused on the potential growth of the Europe. The EU appeared to gained stronger position, exceeding expectations from market participants.

The figures for housing starts were released from the United States which cause an unfavorable session on Friday, and that also works against the greens. This is also one of the reasons that helped the pair to move upwards, however, the current trends in the market are not actually certain since it needs to come up with an agreement.

As of now, it is recommended to start trading with the small positions when using the EUR/USD because volatility became high again.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The Euro against the British pound declined during the Monday session as it reached the 0.725 region. A rebound from that level propelled the trend down to 0.8775 level. There is a chance that 0.88 level and above becomes a significant resistance which is the next target of the pair.

Looking back at the long-term charts, several breakouts were seen and there are some levels being supportive. These breakouts indicate bullishness in the trend that is not yet filled. Although, there will be much more buying opportunities if the price fell down to the base of the trend. If the price breaks higher than the 0.88 handle, then the market could go higher towards the 0.8850 level then to 0.90 region.

Overall, there will be choppiness in the market with the ongoing Brexit negotiation which brings uncertainty among traders. However, the principal driver of the movement of the pair will still be the major news as traders try to determine what will happen next as priority more than anything else. There are still remaining time and choppiness will still be present for the next few months or a few years later.

The market will most likely move upward which makes buying more propitious wif given an opportunity. The breakdown could go down much further but would be favorable for seller this time whereas the bullish pressure will be lessened which would shift the overall sentiment of the market.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The Australian dollar declined a few levels during the Monday session. It attained the 0.76 level and it attracts more buyers below. A bit of recovery signals the possibility for the trend to go down towards the 0.7575 level. However, if the market rallies higher than the 0.7630 region, the trend will most likely go higher instead.

Traders should also observe the gold market which will have an impact in this pair. A rollover for this pair could negatively affect the currency.

The latest Australian GDP data came out higher than expected that initiated impulsiveness in the trading sessions before. Other markets such as copper is now being highlighted in the trading market that should also be considered by traders as well as the interest rate differential.

Based on the GDP data, it is possible for the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase its rates which would be beneficial for the Australian dollar. Despite the choppiness in the market, the pair could have a sell off as the market identifies for support below.

There will still be volatility in the market that makes trading in small positions to be much more practical. However, if the pair breaks in the upper channel, then the market could move as high as 0.7750 level up to 0.80 region. It is best to trade in bigger positions when the pair breaks above the 0.7650 level and above.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The British pound surged against the Japanese yen during the Monday session but this was reversed as it found support close to the 142 level. A breakout at 142.50 level would give a bullish sentiment that makes buying beneficial at this moment. In the past sessions, the market broke multiple times and a gap in the upper channel would be a positive trend in the market. The next target would be at 145 handle. Volatility will persist because of the ongoing negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Currently, the market highly sensitive although it is usually vulnerable to risk appetite amid normal condition. Choppiness is also a contributing factor but a break out in the current psychological level would lead the trend in a single direction. A break lower than 141.50 level would be a negative sign for the market that makes selling more practical. The price could further go down towards the 140.50 level.

The Japanese yen being a safety currency could collapse if there are negative factors that could affect this pair. There are various major events that go both ways which could bring an interesting change to this pair. If the pair breaks higher, the market will gain impetus that could abruptly move the trend to the upside. The long-term move would be significant before placing money in this pair as the market gains momentum in the trading.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar pair attempted to surge during the Monday session. Although, there is sufficient resistance found at the 0.73 level to reverse the trend at a faster pace. A break lower than the 0.7250 level would bring the price down towards the 0.72 handle. It seems that traders are waiting for a collapse in the market but it is most likely due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar as well as the market sentiment regarding the interest rate of the Federal Reserve. Notwithstanding, this won’t be detrimental in the current market condition.

The latest move is more likely a technical one and traders should be cautious in placing their trades but they should look out for a possibility for a pullback. However, it could be a different situation for long-term trades.

The 0.72 level below is being supportive while the resistance level is found at 0.73 level. It seems like a form of consolidation and it is inclined to another retest at the base of the trading range. The pair has a tendency to move upward when the commodity market surges.

For now, it is advisable to trade in small positions and take advantage of the volatility. On a bright side, the returns are at faster rate despite its consolidation since the Kiwi also moves quickly. However, if the price breaks higher than the 0.73 level after some time, the trend could climb much higher towards the next psychological level target at 0.75 region. Hence, it is reasonable to pose long term trades higher than the 0.73 handle.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The USDCAD attempted to begin a rally during Monday trades, however, eyes resistance around 1.3250 region to made a reversal and move downwards. The 1.32 area had been offering some type of support while the oil sector continues to be shaky.

Despite changes in Canada’s monetary policy, the oil still weighed pressured to the market. Having said that, a strong rally is anticipated but there is also a chance for the market to become choppy due to conflict amid interest rate and petroleum market from Ottawa.

Market participants should remain cautious as the market fluctuations persist in moving erratically.

The level above 1.33 mark is assumed to be the resistance and breaking on top of it would continue moving within a longer-term uptrend.

As shown in the longer-term chart, a massive uptrend line lies below which aid the market to search for buyers immediately.

In case a short-term selloff occurred, pay attention to oil for it will form a bearish pressure that will prevail over the Canadian dollar.

Meanwhile, the grind in the sideways will keep moving as the 1.32 region is the epicenter of currency traders.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 20, 2017

The national currency of Britain rallied initially amid Monday session, however, met some resistance around 1.28 mark to make reversal and decline. Moreover, the 1.27 region would likely provide another leg by which we can find 1.2750 range above the basic zone.

An impulsive trend is necessary to see for a bounce in order to find an opportunity to take long position. Upon acquiring that move and broke the 1.28 region above, there is a chance that the market will touch 1.2950 range, en route 1.3050.

The volatility will persist which will make the course be much tough because of the news releases from Brussels and London throughout negotiations about the United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union.

With this, having smaller position sizes will remain as we go through the market as we need to be very careful considering the volatility is going extremely worse.

At the end of the day, the market would move above the 1.3450 area. Ability to slice that area will enable the market to climb higher and signaled for a support found in the upside. Nevertheless, the negotiation process about the EU exit would cause for the Cable to experienced volatility and at the same time, the sterling pound remains to be the focal point of the problem.

The market still difficult to deal with, but an attempt to generate some bottom longer-term would be a great assistance. Should we breakdown the 1.26 mark below will push the market to had a significant decline. The buyers looks like trying to regain a stronger stand.
 
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