Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 9, 2017


The unfavorable data in the Euro region stall the activities of the buyers last Friday. As the German Factory Orders together with the Retail sales resulted to a weaker than expected statistics. The market is expecting for the release of US NFP figures today which is predicted to earn 180K.


The bullish sentiment prevailed in the market since Friday. Buyers found a hurdle around 1.0600 thus they are forced to return. The major pair slowed down amid the Asian trade and struggled to retake the level. The EUR/USD moved lower as the renewed selling pressure surpass the pair prior to the opening of the New York session.


According to the 4-hour chart, the price advances its development on top of the moving averages. The MAs are trending mixed as the 50-EMA took an upward direction while 100 and 200-EMAs headed lower.


The technical picture resumed ploying northwards around the positive zone. The MACD increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator hovered in the overvalued area.


The major currency pair is able to regain the bullish momentum if it continues its recovery expansion through the 1.0650 and 1.0700 regions. Moreover, the positive NFP report would likely strengthen the U.S dollar, otherwise, weighed over the single European currency. In such case, the pair will turn to the downside and decline towards the 1.0450 mark.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 9, 2017



The pair moves with an overall bullish tone. It will remain bullish unless the price moves beyond the current trend line. Its current recovery momentum from the 115.00 psychological level on Friday Asian trading session last week. The greenback was able to recover its losses after it rebounded above the 116.00 hurdle. Gains of buyers expanded as the price moved higher than the North American Trading session.

The said momentum during the Asian Trading session halted at 116.37 level while greenback retreated later back to 116.00 level. The Resistance level is seen at 116.00 level while the support level posited at 115.00 mark. The psychological level rebounded in 200-EMA while the 50-EMA was seen to cross the 1-00-EMA in the chart as both do downwards. The MACD goes higher implying the seller’s position to be dominated by the buyers while the RSI maintained its oversold readings.

The U.S. dollar recovered its momentum as it weakened since the risks encountered after Trump threatened Toyota Motor Corp. when the intention to construct a facility in Mexico. If the price moved lower than the 115.00 mark this indicates a strong dominance of sellers in the market. The opportunity for the price to reach the 114.00 mark in short-term cannot be ascertained. However, if the pair continues its uptrend, the current resistance level could even go higher towards the 117.00 mark.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 9, 2017

The USD/CAD pair declined on Friday but was able to reach strong support to recover and form a hammer pattern. This gives a strong indication of bullishness in the market and signalling a turnaround soon as it moves in an upward direction in the upper channel. If the oil market also increases then this could affect the price to further go up towards the 1.35 handle or even higher. However, a break lower than the current uptrend line indicates a pessimistic trend.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: January 9, 2017


The pair EUR/GBP surged on Friday last week with a bullish tone. Higher than the 0.87 level forms a resistance level which is now the next target of traders. Any price surge seen in the trend opens a selling opportunity for the market but if the price breaks at 0.87 handle then the price could further go up. Traders should look for exhaustive candle indication yet the market is quite subtle currently. Nevertheless, it is already anticipated for the volatility of the market to be more active.
 
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017


The recent drop in the value of the US dollar proved to be good news for the Australian dollar, as this provided substantial support for the AUD during the previous trading session. In spite of the fact that the previous sessions were mostly made up of high bottoms and tops, the Australian dollar was still generally able to maintain its standing on the positive side of the chart. The AUD/USD pair closed down the previous trading session at 0.7353 points after increasing by +0.82% or 0.0060 points.


A number of Australian economic data was released during Monday’s trading session, with the Building Approvals data coming in at a positive 7.0% reading and the Australian retail sales data coming in at a somewhat dismal reading of 0.2% after failing to meet market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the US Labor Market Conditions Index dropped by 0.3 points, while the Consumer Credit data surged by 24.5 billion from its previous reading of 18.3 billion.


The AUD/USD pair will be starting off today’s trading session within a somewhat critical range within 0.7341 to 0.7385 points. If the currency pair moves just underneath 0.7341, then this will be an indicator of a larger selling pressure than buying pressure at the present levels of the pair. Since there are no expected economic news releases from the region for today, traders are most likely to focus on external events and its effect on the USD and subsequently, on its effect on the AUD. The US dollar could lose its appeal as an asset if oil prices drop further which will cause US Treasury yields to fall as well.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017
The sterling pound continued its weak trading activity during yesterday’s session as the fears and confusion surrounding the Brexit process as well as other such concerns continue to weigh down on the GBP, a trend which has been going on for the past weeks. The GBP/USD pair was unable to increase in value in spite of the marked dollar weakness during the previous trading session. Market analysts are speculating that the currency pair is currently locked within a highly bearish stance and could possibly incur more losses in the coming days.
Stock prices fell yesterday due to uncertainties surrounding the current position of commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, as well as Brexit-related concerns. A lot of traders and investors are saying that the market might be well-headed for a hard Brexit, which means that the negotiations between UK leaders and EU officials might prove to be much harder than expected, and also implies that the UK might be unable to obtain free market zone access to the rest of the European Union once they formally leave the eurozone. In addition, Scotland seems to be taking measures to leave the UK in protest to Brexit, which means that the sterling pound is more likely to decrease further in value.
For today’s session, the current market trends are expected to continue since there are no scheduled releases from the UK and the US. The sterling pound is still expected to fail to bounce back from its recent low levels due to the various negative economic factors which continue to affect the state of the pound.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017


The EUR/USD pair exhibited bullish stances during yesterday’s trading session. The US has recently released its average wages data as well as its employment reports data, both of which turned out to be highly satisfactory particularly for investors. This set of data has then set the tone for the market’s movements this week. The USD has increased significantly in value as opposed to the EUR, but the EUR/USD pair was able to counter this movement and instead consolidated during the Tokyo and European trading sessions. The currency pair was able to break through 1.0580 from 1.0520 during the North American session before finally settling just below 1.0600 points.


The USD received little support from comments from Fed officials yesterday, which turned out to be hawkish. The currency pair is now back to trading near its weekly highs last week, a crucial position for both the USD and the EUR. The dollar will most likely be able to regain its strength if the EUR/USD experiences a breakdown. However, if the EUR is able to go beyond 1.0600 and possibly reach 1.0650 points, then the euro could increase in value, thereby putting the US dollar in negative territory. A number of large-scale banks and hedge funds are expecting the USD to regain its strength anytime soon since the fundamentals are all pointing towards a higher value for the USD. However, the dollar bulls must be able to obtain the right timing in order for the USD to strengthen further.
Today’s trading session is most likely to be dominated by the recent market trends as there are no major news releases expected from both the US and the European Union. The pricing of the USD is closely monitored by the market since this could be a catalyst on whether the stock market will be pushing through their bullish direction or consolidate instead.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 10, 2017

The commodity-linked Canadian currency moved back as the dollar strengthened and oil prices declined. A bearish bias prevailed on Monday. The price tried to recover however, the 1.3260 hurdle prevents it to continue.

Upon reaching the aforementioned level, the greenbacks rebounded from the barrier and progress towards the 1.3190 region afterward.

The price continued to develop under the moving averages as indicated in the 4-hour chart. Shown in the same trading chart, the 50-EMA extended over the 100-EMA downwards. Moreover, the 50 and 200-EMAs maintained a lower position while the 100-EMA held an upward direction. Resistance lies at 1.3260, support entered the 1.3190. The MACD indicators improved which confirmed weak seller’s position. RSI hovered in the oversold readings.

The bearish sentiment is preferable to dominate as of now, another downtrend is further expected. The next target of the sellers are 1.3120 and 1.3190. The USD/CAD is able to bounce off its losses supposing that it breaks the 1.3260 handle upwards so it can reached the 1.3330 region.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 10, 2017


As the week starts, the British currency was marked red. The GBP/USD softened due to rising concerns about Hard-Brexit. However, the price index of Halifax provided minor support for the pound because the House Prices published a higher than expected results. Meanwhile, sellers consistently manage the overall market on Monday.

The sterling had a downward price break during the daily trades opening as it promptly spread its weakness until the 1.2200 level.

After the pair reached the level, the pressured area continued to fade while the pair advance towards the consolidation phase. However, the consolidation was short-lived making another bout of selling pressure which drove the Cable to the 1.2100 area.

A downward momentum further faded with some pips on top of the 1.2200 handle after it touched the 1.2123 mark, the price rebounded and lessened the amount of their losses.

The 1-hour chart showed that the sterling lead the moving averages towards a lower point, seeing the 50-EMA descended while 200 and 100-EMAs are trending flat. Resistance took the 1.2200 range, support entered the 1.2100.

The MACD indicator jumps into the negative zone. In case the histogram hovered in the negative territory, sellers will strengthen. The RSI stay close to the oversold condition, indicating another lower movement.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the bearish bias will prevail. Sellers were able to come at 1.2100 level in the near-term, heading to 1.2000. There is still a possibility for the GBPUSD to make an attempt in reclaiming the resistance regions 1.2200 – 1.2230.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 10, 2017


The European region presented data of mixed type yesterday as Germany’s Industrial Production did not meet the expected results, on the other hand, the trade balance beef up. Whereas, the EU’s jobless rate published consistent statistics. These events caused traders to quit buying the euro and focus to the U.S dollar instead.


A short period of consolidation in the Asian session was followed by another round of attempt to recover the 1.1050 during the EU trades. The buyers had a tough battle around this level earlier, however, they were unable to reclaim it.
The EUR/USD run into the downside pressure and continued to move through the 1.0500 area in the middle session of Europe.


According to the 4-hour chart, the price pushed the 200-EMA downwards and jump near the 100-EMA, both exponential moving averages remained to be bearish and the 50-EMA ascended. Resistance is seen at 1.0550, support is found at the 1.0500 level.


The MACD histogram loses edge which confirmed weaker position for the buyers. The RSI oscillator stayed in the neutral zone.
We further support for a short-term bearish tone. The next target of the major pair sits below the 1.0500 mark, most likely the support levels 1.0400 and 1.0450.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017


The USD/CAD pair exhibited additional corrections during yesterday’s trading sessions as the US dollar weakened significantly following the press conference of president-elect Donald Trump. The market initially expected Trump to give hints on his proposed economic, fiscal, and monetary policies but instead disappointed market players after he merely talked about his personal interests and his business enemies. This then caused the dismal drop in the value of the dollar. The stock market was able to recover slightly towards the end of the session, but the same could not be said for the US dollar.


As oil prices managed to regain its losses during yesterday’s session, this has proved to be good news for the Canadian dollar since this lended the CAD some much-needed support and has triggered the USD/CAD pair to reach just under 1.3200 before settling to 1.3150 points. The economic news release from Canada came out better than what the market expected, and since oil prices are now looking good, these are expected to provide susbstantial support for the CAD in the long run. The USD/CAD pair could possibly test the 1.3000 level due to the recent weakness in the USD


For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy but we have the unemployment claims data from the US which will be released during the North American trading session. However, the most dominant market trend today would most likely still be the effects of the recently concluded press conference, and this is why the pair is possibly up for more weakness and volatility for today.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017


The US dollar took the spotlight yesterday as the market reacted wildly to Donald Trump’s press conference during the latter part of the New York trading session. The market was initially subdued during the London and Tokyo trading sessions since the market was generally looking forward to gauge Trump’s demeanor, as well as to decipher his administration’s plans for the next 4 years and to see whether Trump will actually be pushing through with his proposed policies during his campaign.


However, Trump went in for a very disappointing run as he displayed his usual tactlessness and brashness and even highlighted his desire to build a Mexican border within two years. This move was wholly unexpected by the market, and this caused the USD to crash and plummet across the board. The GBP/USD pair, which has been languishing in the bottom rungs of the market for the past 2 months, was able to immediately recover its losses and was able to push through 1.2200 points and even reached 1.2250 before finally settling at just under 1.2200 points.


Since there are no major news releases expected from the UK for today, the previous market trend is expected to dominate today’s trading sessions. The bulls could possibly profit from a solid upward move from the GBP/USD pair if the pound would be able to break through 1.2300. Otherwise, the currency pair could be merely subject to short-term corrections.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017


Yesterday’s trading session proved to be very stressful for both investors and traders alike. However, during the Tokyo and European trading sessions, the EUR/USD pair still underwent ranging and consolidation without any definite direction as the market generally waited for Trump’s press conference statement during the New York trading session. But as the press conference began, chaos within the market ensued as the majority of currency prices exhibited extreme volatility, with both the shorts and longs being subject to extreme pressure.


One of the reasons why the market kept a close watch on this particular conference is in order to see whether Trump would become diplomatic with regards to his policy approaches or if he would still stick to his brash attitude. However, once the conference started, it became clear that Trump had not changed one bit after he merely talked about his personal interests and his opponents rather than actual policies which would be of use to US as a nation.


The USD initially increased in value prior to the said press conference as the market anticipated Trump’s move, but as the president-elect’s stance became clear, the USD eventually plummeted, leaving room for the EUR/USD pair to recover some of its recent losses in value and was able to go to just above 1.0600 points. If the EUR/USD pair maintains its bullishness, then the currency pair could possibly break through 1.0600 points. Otherwise, the pair could be subject to more ranging and consolidation for today’s trading session.


The US is scheduled to release its unemployment claims data, but the USD will still be reeling from the negative effects of Trump’s conference and could possibly drop to 1.0700 points.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 12, 2017


Oil prices further weakened which weighed on commodity-linked currencies including the kiwi. The NZD/USD declined as the dollar remained stronger. However, the pair established a positive stance on Wednesday. Due to the overnight rebound the New Zealand dollar is able to left the “red”. It further broke the 0.7000 region amid Asian hours, en route 0.7050 during EU trades.


The upward trajectory become weaker. Having posted its daily high at 0.7020 the NZD entered the 0.7000 region. According to the 4-hour chart, the price is sandwiched in the 200 and 50-EMAs. The 50-EMA headed northbound as it cross the 100-EMA upwards. Both 100 and the 200-EMAs were trending flat as indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance jump in at 0.7000, support approached the 0.6950 level.


The MACD histogram keep trading in the downside. The RSI indicator rejected the overvalued readings and pierced the neutral zone.
The NZDUSD is expected to go back to 0.6950 support level in the near-term. In line with this, the spot will remain to dwindle through 0.6900.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 12, 2017


During the trades on Wednesday, the single European currency became bearish. Both U.S and EU calendar appeared to be facile. While most of the investors focused on the speech of US President Donald Trump.


Moreover, the euro continued its downward trajectory yesterday. Traders broke the price towards 1.0500 where the EURUSD generated a near-term consolidation period amid the morning trades. The pair met some fresh offers in the EU opening, however, continued to fall off eventually.


Sellers were pushed under the 1.0550, euro stalled at the 1.0500 level.
The price lead the 200-EMA downwards and 50-EMA are being tested as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 200 and 100-EMAs are currently flat while the 50-EMA climb higher. Resistance reached the 1.0550 area, support lies at 1.0500.


The MACD histogram declined which confirmed weak stance for the buyers. The RSI oscillator departed from the undervalued territory, en route south afterward.
Forecasts says the near-term selling interest will continue to sit tight. In case a breakout occurred within the 1.0500 range, it would bring seller’s next target at 1.0400 and 1.0450.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 13, 2017
In spite of the fact that the GBP/USD pair was able to extend its gains towards 1.2300 as it tried finishing off the previous trading session on a much higher note, the sterling pound’s price movement was still unable to instill enough confidence into the pair’s bulls. The marked weakness in the value of the dollar was able to help the currency pair to reach 1.2300 points but is still currently in danger of dropping down to 1.2200 points.
The recent movements of the GBP/USD pair was more of a result of the USD’s drop in value than the pound’s strength, since the GBP would most likely be unable to sustain its gains from the dollar weakness. This means that the GBP could possibly decrease in value once the dollar recovers from its slump. Other currency pairs were able to hold fast to gains against the USD weakness unlike the sterling pound, and this should be taken into account by sterling pound bulls.
Traders are presently expressing their concerns with regards to the confusion stemming from the Brexit process, and with the sterling pound looking well on its way down, this could compel the bears to push down the pricing of the pound further whenever a bounce in the GBP/USD pair becomes imminent. There are no major news releases from the UK, but the retail sales data as well as the CPI data from the US could become determinants of whether the USD would be able to regain its footing in the financial market.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 13, 2017

Market analysts had previously stated that if the USD continues to weaken across the board during the next trading sessions, then the USD/CAD pair could be well on its way towards 1.3000, and this was what exactly happened during yesterday’s session after the USD/CAD managed to reach 1.3000 and even briefly settled over 1.3000 as the USD continued to drop in value while oil prices managed to maintain its current stance.

However, during the early parts of the session, the USD regain a small amount of its previous strength while the market expressed concerns with regards to the lack of execution in the agreed oil production cuts, and this has reined in the strength of the USD/CAD pair. These factors has caused the currency pair to rise up to 1.3100 before finally settling just below 1.3150 points. Moreover, since the USD/CAD has recently been subject to large-scale buys every time the currency pair’s value falls, the market is generally expecting that the USD/CAD could possibly reach the market target of 1.4000 points

The US will be releasing its CPI data and retail sales data today, while there are no major news releases from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session. This two sets of data will be closely watched by the market, since a positive data reading will increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the short-term, and this could also help the USD to further recover from its losses as seen earlier today.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 13, 2017


The euro increased its trading value during the previous trading sessions after it finally mustered the strength to break away from its limited trading range. However, the USD remains affected by the disappointment brought about by Trump’s recent press conference and has continued to weaken across the board yesterday. This has then caused the EUR/USD pair to reach 1.0600 points, the same region which the pair has been previously finding hard to break through during the past sessions, and as a result, traders have been closely monitoring whether the EUR/USD would manage to break through this time. After a short stagnant period, the EUR/USD pair finally managed to go beyond 1.0600 and even went up to 1.0685 as the USD continued its losing streak.


It is important to note that the weak USD was solely the result of Trump’s press conference and was not backed by any economic data from the US. This shows just how disappointed the market is with Trump, as a lot of market players were expecting him to outline his policies for the next four years but instead got the opposite. There is now growing talks within the market that Trump might not be good for the markets and the financial industry after all, and this has triggered corrections in both the USD and the US stock market. However, the dollar was able to reclaim some of its losses during the earlier part of the session, which caused the pair to drop back to 1.0600 points.


The US will be releasing its PPI data as well as its retail sales data for today, and the market is hoping that these would come out as positive in order to at least increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the very near future in order to offset the dismal performance of the US dollar. However, if the data comes out as negative, then this would minimize the chances of a rate hike and could cause the EUR/USD to surge to 1.0700 as the dollar further weakens in value.

 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 13, 2017


The single European currency stalled its development even though the data from the Euroland showed positive results as the Consumer Price Index satisfied trader’s predictions. While the EU statistics for industrial production exceeded the expectation of traders.


Moreover, the EUR expanded its short-term upward momentum during the morning trades yesterday. It further broke the 1.0600 level in the Asian hours and moved towards 1.0650 eventually.


The EURUSD approached the 1.0650 barrier in the post-EU opening and promptly turned back under the broken level. The pair significantly increased however lost its ground when the price failed to recover 1.0650.


The price stayed on top of the moving averages shown in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs climb higher while 200-EMA is neutral. Resistance pierced through the 1.0650 region, support touched the 1.0600 handle. The MACD increased which implied strength for the buyers. RSI oscillator ceded from neutral territory, en route north.


The technicals presented a bullish tone and anticipated for a correction inclined to profit taking which could emerge shortly after the spot plunge below the 1.0600 area. If the price seized 1.0550, a move below the level will cause for the present buying sentiment to neutralize.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 13, 2017

The Japanese yen appreciated driven by the speech given by President-elect Donald Trump although he did not give any specific answers about his economic plans. Nevertheless, the Japanese current figures exceeded the expectation supporting the currency.

The U.S. dollar sustained its selloff on Thursday after period of tension pushing the Gopher to move lower up to 115.00 level. This is followed by the decline of greenback towards the the 114.00 level during the European morning trading session. Yet, the sellers was not successful to recover the price but still attempted to go beyond the psychological level before the opening of the New York trading session. The Resistance level sited at 115.00 while the support level come sin at 114.00 level.

The Moving Averages chart is seen to move downward.The MACD histogram declined implying that sellers lead the market while the RSI stayed within the oversold area following the downtrend. If the price did not exceed the price lower than the 114.00 level but moves towards the 115.00 level instead, this could mean gains for the traders. If this current trend continues then the next target will be 113.00 level for the sellers.
 
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