Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

The GBP/USD pair was unable to sustain its hold over 1.2400 points and eventually dropped to 1.2300 points, mostly due to the return of the dollar’s strength, which was expected by investors to come back anytime soon. The UK released a string of highly positive economic data yesterday, such as the average earnings data and the claimant count data. However, these were relatively minor data, and had little effect on the movement of the sterling pound. But it is important to note that in spite of the general uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process, UK still manages to release very positive economic data from their region.

The majority of market players instead chose to focus on economic data coming from the US, but the sterling pound’s weakness had already taken effect during this time after receiving pressure from Yellen’s statement that the Fed could possibly go for another interest rate hike if the economic data from the US continues to be positive in the coming months. This has then caused the dollar to increase in value and has caused the currency pair to drop to 1.2300 points.

Market players are generally expecting that the GBP/USD pair will continue its losing streak, and since the dollar continues to strengthen, the currency pair could be in for more losses both in the short run and long run. There are no major data set to be released today from the UK, and with nothing to counter the movement of the USD, the currency is more likely to be subject to more downward pressure as the day progresses.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

The Australian Dollar presented some optimism compared with its U.S peer that receives support from the dynamic pricing of oil. The awaited data from the labour market is deemed to support the Aussie at the same time.

The tone of the market remains to be positive. The AUD/USD is confined on its 2-week highs near the 0.7550 level. The price hovered around a very tight range and tends to go into a lower position. The 4-hour chart showed the spot stick on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish tone while 200-EMA is flat. Resistance hit 0.7550 mark, support is found at 0.7500 range.

MACD lied in the same level which confirmed buyer’s strength once again. The RSI is currently on the consolidation period and entered the overvalued zone.

Forecasts mentioned for a further short-term downward correction. In case the closing trades are set under 0.7750, the price will impose a sell signal. The possible target of the bears is 0.7500.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

Hard Brexit issues continued to affect the cable pair. The British currency weakened in spite of the upbeat in the labor market data as the unemployment stat maintained its rate and Claimant Count Change rose.

The sterling is in the red versus its American rival on Wednesday. The GBP/USD climb the edge of the overbought area and pointed downwards amid Asian hours. Sellers take out the 1.2400 level during the morning trades and tested the mark 1.2300 in the EU session. However, the mark stalled the progress of sellers. Having touched the level, the price reduced and stayed on top of the region prior to the onset of NY trading.

According to the 4-hour chart, spot bounced off to 200-EMA. The entire moving averages moved downwards. Resistance highlighted 1.2400 region, support entered 1.2300 area.

The MACD slowed down which favored seller’s strength. RSI kept intact in the overbought zone.

Moreover, the 4-hour chart showed a prevailing bearish tone.The primary target 1.2200 showed some signs as it will be going short followed by the consolidation phase, the pair is expected to move ahead through 1.2100 handle.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017
The American dollar was able to rub out its losses versus the euro prior to the speech of Yellen yesterday. The greens further acquired some support from the consumer price index of U.S which met the expectations of investors. Moreover, the decision of the ECB about its interest rate will be announced later this day.
The market structure remained to be bullish on Wednesday. The single European currency executed an upside impulse and return from its weekly high towards 1.0716.
The ongoing rebound is deemed to be corrective during the profit-taking behind the current rally. The EUR/USD retreated under the 1.0700 level amid morning trades on Wednesday and it hovered throughout the level as the EU session took place.
The 4-hour chart shows the price resumed its advancement on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs continued to be bullish while 200-EMA stayed on the neutral position shown in the same time chart. Resistance sits at 1.0700, support lies at 1.0650 region.
The MACD histogram falls which indicate weak position of the buyers. The RSI oscillator kept around the overvalued territory.
The pair is expected to moved near the immediate support 1.0650. In case the level breaks, the support will return to 1.0600. However, the EUR will receive short-term support as much as 1.0500 remained intact.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017


The USD/CAD pair surged on Wednesday as it broke the downtrend on the chart. It started from the 1.3598 level forming until 1.3018 level completing the current downtrend. The support level is found at 1.3135 and if a clear break is seen, the price could further go down towards the 1.2800 mark. Alternatively, if the price breaks higher than the current uptrend line, the price could move up towards the next target at 1.3500 level in the next days to come.


A rebound in the price trend could being the sellers back soon and dominate the market as the prices are about to go higher influenced by the oil market. However, if the oil prices become unstable then the prices could further go up and the break lower than the 1.30 level gives a negative sign to the market.
 
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017
The EUR/JPY pair amped up for some time on yesterday morning indicating signs of steadiness in the market. This may not stay long and traders may face some roughness in trading as it reach below the 120 handle. Then, the buyers would lead the market.

After some days, the price could reach the 124 level again as the current 120 level could further go down towards the 118.50 level as long as the support holds. It is not recommended to sell the market as of now.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

The New Zealand dollar fell in the beginning of trading session on Wednesday. The market was able to reverse this and formed a hammer pattern in the charts. It seems very bullish and if the break is successful to break beyond the top of the hammer, the price could further go up towards the 0.73 level. Oppositely, if the price breaks lower at the bottom of the hammer then this indicates a negative sign towards the 0.71 handle. There is an inclination for the pair to reach the overbought area but it seems that the buyers are quite finished. Nevertheless, it is anticipated for a high volatility in the market.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 20, 2017

The GBP/USD pair spent the rest of yesterday’s trading session consolidating amid a bullish bias as the dollar’s strength waxed and waned during the duration of yesterday’s session. Since there were no major economic data coming from both the UK and US yesterday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a tight boundary in spite of the marked volatility from other currency pairs. This trend is expected to continue during today’s session as the market looks for a definitive direction for the currency pair.

The US dollar as well as the sterling pound are both expected to undergo a period of heightened volatility and could go through significant changes for this year. This is because the newly-minted Trump administration could possibly usher in increased spending and infrastructures, along with a lot of concerns and uncertainties regarding the new administration’s economic and fiscal policies, while the UK continues to struggle with issues surrounding the Brexit process. These events are expected to leave permanent effects on both currencies, and it will all depend on how both economies will be responding to these burgeoning changes in the future. However, one common thing that these two countries have is that both are exhibiting relatively good economic data, which is good news for long-term investors. But then again this does not remove the fact that both currencies will be highly volatile in the near future.

UK will be releasing its retail sales data during today’s European session, with the market expecting the data to come out as generally positive in accordance to the recent trend of positive economic outputs from the region. The GBP/USD pair could possibly test the 1.2400 range if the retail sales data meets market expectations.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 20, 2017

The USD/CAD continued to exhibit a strong trading streak during the previous trading session as the after-effects of the BoC’s economic policies continue to have an effect on the Canadian dollar, with the CAD weakening across the board during the previous session as a result. The USD/CAD is trading just above 1.3300 points and could be in for more consolidation within its trade highs for today unless the US dollar suddenly drops in value.

The Bank of Canada has already made it clear that the Canadian economy has not made any substantive progress during the past months, and this stagnation might prompt the central bank to make interest rate adjustments in the coming months. Economic data coming from this region was generally good, but low oil prices have already become a matter of concern for the BoC since the country is hugely reliant on oil, and this is why it is highly possible that the BoC might decide to implement rate cuts towards the end of 2017. This is also why the CAD continues to drop in value, and why corrections in this particular currency has always been met with strong buys. If the currency pair manages to reach 1.3500 points, then the pair could possibly reach up to 1.4000 which could be easily achieved within the year if the Fed hikes its interest rates and the BoC implements a rate cut.

Canada will be releasing its CPI data as well as its retail sales data during the New York trading session, and if any of these two data comes out as weak, then this will be merely a confirmation of a weakening Canadian economy, and the pair could possibly go upwards to 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 20, 2017


The EUR/USD pair underwent a lot of volatility during yesterday’s trading session after it initially plummeted to 1.0600 points for a short period but eventually climbed towards the higher trading regions and is now continuing to trade within these price highs. The euro currency is known for its resilience against the fluctuations of the USD, and while other currencies become adversely affected with the movement of the US dollar, the euro has always been able to counter these effects and the USD always finds it hard to oppose the movements of the EUR.


The ECB released its statement regarding the central bank’s rates yesterday which was immediately followed by a press conference, and Draghi had already stressed that the central bank is not very keen on minimizing the bank’s QE anytime soon. Moreover, Draghi also stated that the ECB chose not to act on the region’s inflation issues since this was mainly caused by the surge in energy prices. This statement from the central bank stirred some concerns from market investors, therefore putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair and causing the currency pair to drop to 1.0600 for a brief period. However, the euro was again able to revert its losses during the North American trading session even though there was no actual reason behind the dollar weakness. The USD continues its losing for today and is expected to undergo more consolidation as the day progresses.


There are no scheduled economic data to be released from both the EU and the US for today, and as such, the current market trends are expected to be dominant in the financial market for today.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

The US dollar finally regained the majority of its losses yesterday after the country released a series of positive economic data, as well as from a handful of fundamental adjustments which occurred in the country during the previous trading session. However, although the dollar strength has already returned, it remains to be seen whether this will eventually continue to become a long-term trend or merely dissipate as a short-term correction for the USD, and with Trump’s inauguration tomorrow, the US dollar is in for some interesting movements in the future.

The USD remained docile during the entirety of yesterday’s Tokyo and European trading session. However, the EUR/USD failed to make significant developments after going through 1.0700 points since it was relying on economic data in order to make actual progress. The CPI data from the US was eventually released and met market expectations, inducing more upward pressure on the USD but was immediately lost in the face of increased volatility in the market. But the real game-changer was Yellen’s speech later in the day, wherein the Fed chair reiterated that if the slew of positive economic data from US continues, then the market could be in for another Fed rate hike anytime soon. This dollar-positive movement has then caused the EUR/USD pair to climb up to 1.0620 points and has now settled just above this particular region. The pair is expected to undergo more pressure as the dollar continues its winning streak across the board.

The ECB will be releasing its rate statement during today’s trading session and will be subsequently followed by a press conference from the central bank. There are no changes expected from the ECB, however it is expected that the central bank would probably highlight its most recent achievements to the market audience. US will also be releasing the Philly Fed Index as well as the Unemployment Claims data, both of which are expected to increase volatility and lend additional support for the USD.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 20, 2017

The Business PMI of New Zealand showed positive results, however, the data for the Building Permits posted negative figures. The commodity currency NZD got some support from the dynamic prices of oil. The recent data of the United States weighed on the kiwi.

The Asian recovery run out of steam subsequent to the 0.7200 level testing. The barrier seems hard to break. The NZD decline after it touched the level in the Asian hours and stayed under the resistance region during the EU session.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price remained on top of the moving averages yesterday. Both 100 and 50-EMAs directed an upward trajectory, the 200-EMA is neutral based on the mentioned timeframe. Resistance lies at 0.7200, support is found at 0.7150.

MACD grew less which showed some weakening on the buyer’s position. RSI headed northbound after it left the neutral territory.

Failure to reacquire 0.7200 will send the market some reversal. A steep breakout under 0.7150 could initiate an easing through 0.7100.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 20, 2017

The Housing Price Balance came in the red for December, the figures presented worse-than-expected outcome which stalled the recovery of the British currency on Thursday. The sterling had a stronger stance yesterday, enabling the GBP/USD to approach its recent highs found in the 1.2400 level. The Cable reversed few of its losses after the softening of the dollar across the board.

The spot met a local bottom at 1.2250, shifted its course and began to rallied up breaking the 1.2300 region amid EU sesion. The pair cross the level and proceeded northwards intended to reach the 1.2400 target.

The buying interest gradually dwindle during the North American trading. The price suffered from a downward rejection and drag lower but it resumed to develop in the middle of 100 and 200-EMAs shown in the 4-hour chart.

The 50 and 100-EMAs is confined in the neutral area while the 200-EMA keep on ployed lower. Resistance arrived at 1.2400 level, support lies at 1.2300.

The MACD ascended which post a buy signal. RSI dropped the neutral zone, en route overvalued zone.

The pound is still under the possible risk of a deeper fall. The GBP had a limited movement due to the 1.2400 hurdle and 200-EMA. As the spot dip below the 1.2300 support region, a downtrend will initiate immediately. We do not eliminate the probable easing within 1.2200. The price will touch 1.2450 if the break occurred on top of the 1.2400 handle .
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 20, 2017

The ECB decided to keep its rate unchanged as the deposit rate maintained -0.4% and 0.0% for the interest. Meanwhile, the greenbacks stabilized on the back of the positive data in the US considering the Initial Claims for the number of jobless individuals is in the green and Housing Starts presented some solid figures. Investors are focused on the inauguration on Trump scheduled on Friday.

The downward momentum failed to hold 1.0650 as the sellers found a strong hurdle that pushed the pair upwards.

The single European currency was able to regain most of its losses that took place on Thursday. The price drove the 1.0650 level before the onset of EU session and continued to lead through 1.0700 region. On the other hand, the upward impetus lived shortly and the recovery slowed down on top of 1.0650. The pair were pulled lower by the renewed selling interest.

Moreover, the price broke 1.0650 and test the mark 1.0600 during the outset of American trades.

The EUR/USD showed a neutral-to-bullish position amid European hours. According to the 4-hour chart, the spot hovered above the moving averages. The 100-EMA cross above the 200-EMA. The 100 and 50-EMAs accelerated while the 200-day moving average is flat as shown in the same chart.

Resistance touched 1.0700 handle, support entered 1.0650 mark. The MACD indicator weakened along with the soft position of the buyers. RSI pierced through the neutral zone.

The pair appeared to bearish. In case a break occurred below 1.06550, a negative indication would rise and signaled for further risk easing of the EURUSD approaching 1.0600, ahead of the 1.0550 region.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017


Subsequent to the speech made by Janet Yellen, the US dollar abated. But the greens reversed few of its losses on Friday on the back of the inauguration speech of Donald Trump.

The greenbacks attempted to reach 115.00 barrier amid Asian hours. The bulls pushed the level prior to the onset of the EU trading. The price was unable to maintain its upward impetus and turn back through 115.00 eventually.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the price rebounded to the 50-EMA during the Asian session and it further moved between the 50 and 100-EMAs in the Euro hours. The 100 and 50-EMAs employ a downward trend while 200-EMA was confined in the flat lining. Resistance touched the 116.00 level, support hit 115.00 area.

The MACD histogram arrived in the positive zone and if it hovered on its position, the buyers will strengthened. RSI stayed around the overvalued territory.

The general outlook for the pair remained to be bullish as it rack up through the resistance region 116.00.

The USD/JPY could fail and return to the downside in case the 115.00 handle were unable to support the bullish investors.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

The EUR/USD increased for the past few days following the sluggish stance of the greenbacks. The single European dollar benefited from the position of the greens as it climbs to 1.0700 and further extended its gains. The USD weakened with no definite reason as others deemed for the general correction while some claimed it’s all because of the skepticism for Trump’s administration. However, the American currency is clearly at a disadvantage point against the euro.

The EUR is relatively buoyant for the previous week, much more when its U.S peer manifested some strength. The euro continued to bounce back from a limited correction and eventually broke the 1.0700 level, en route 1.0840 region.

There are some issues that the weakness are caused by the speech of Trump coupled with the curtailment for the rest of Obamacare. Moreover, there exist a general risk about the US President’s team and their plans and these uncertainties weighed on the USD.

As the last week of January enters, the economic news is lessened while the upcoming is a beginning for the USD towards an unidentified state which brings higher volatility.

The US and Euroregion do not have major reports to be released for today, what we expect is the continuous fall of the greens.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

The GBP/USD maintain a stronger stance in trading as the dollar softened. Meanwhile, the pair seems ready to gain further throughout the day. Even though the pound declined below 1.2000 due to concerns about the Brexit movement, it remained steady for the previous week. Moreover, British PM May presented some guidelines and asserted that the nation is set for the hard Brexit, this confirmation lessened the risks and disorientation regarding the referendum which also helped the GBP to edged higher and traded strongly for this morning.

The United Kingdom is currently facing a crucial week as the Supreme Court of the country is expected to make an approved decision in relation to the European membership. Considering the fact that the court will require the government to obtain an approval from the Parliament appealing for Article 50 could initiate the process of withdrawing the UK from the EU. In case it was certified, we expect some volatility against the sterling. Nevertheless, there is a possible delay due to some criticism and arguments that are more likely to arise.

The sequential events with regards to the ruling and dollar weakening are able to lead the Cable towards 1.2500 by which the pair are going to aim for the marks 1.2700-2800.

As for this day, there’s no major news from the US and UK thus the greens instability presumably would dominate for the GBPUSD.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair moved in a bullish tone and stained within the close-term ascending channel on Friday’s trading session. It attained its boundary level over the whole night and rebounded during the early European trades. By the middle of European trading session, the price of spot trading ranges between 1.0700 level and 1.0650 level.

The Resistance level comes in at 1.0700 level while the support level sited at 1.0650 level. Its Moving Averages surpassed its levels for both 50-EMA and 100-EMA moving in a downward direction while the test of 200-EMA moves upward. Its MACD declines implying the weakening of buyers. On the other hand, the RSI entered the neutral territory indicating chances or the price to go lower.

The pair broke higher than the 1.0719 resistance maintaining the uptrend from 1.0340 level. This is anticipated to further go up towards the next target at 1.0800 level. Conversely, a break lower than the 1.0650 level could mean another decline. Hence, if the price closes lower than 1.0600 handle, this could go down towards the 1.0550 mark. The support level is aligned in the upward trend line and a clear break of the price would finish the uptrend. When the current price level is maintained, there is a chance to reach another new high at 1.0720 level but because of the a string lower limit in the upper channel, this could hamper the advancement of the pair.

Euro was not affected by the positive results of Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) as the attention of the market directed on Friday, when Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president of the United States expecting directed hints from the new administration. On the other hand, the traders also wait for the release of Manufacturing PMI of Germany and speech of Draghi on Monday.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade within a tight range and consolidated for the most part of yesterday’s trading sessions. The CAD was recently subject to an increased pressure after the Bank of Canada expressed it plans to implement an interest rate cut in the next few months as a result of the Canadian economy becoming increasingly stagnant after not showing much development in the recent economic readings. This added pressure in the CAD has however helped in offsetting the dollar weakness during the past few days.

The Canadian dollar is probably the only currency which the USD has gained in relation during the past few sessions and has continued to maintain its gains over this currency, while other major currencies have increased in value and has left the dollar behind. The US dollar has been in hot water recently, especially since the market is generally uncertain on Trump’s administration policies and how the newly-minted president plans to run the US economy. The market is constantly kept on its toes as Trump continues to act brash in spite of the initial euphoria during the US elections, where the market had hoped that Trump’s election might be generally be good news for businesses around the world. However, the current administration might have to undergo a lot of work before finally regaining the market’s confidence.

There are no major news releases from both the Canadian and the US economy, and as such, the USD/CAD pair is expected to experience more consolidation and ranging during today’s session. Since the weakness of both currencies are apparently cancelling each other out, the currency pair is unable to make any significant progress and the bulls might have a hard time pushing the currency pair towards 1.3400 points and higher.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 25, 2017

The USD/CAD pair dropped to its trading lows following uncertainties over the trade relations between US and Canada, as well as the increasing oil prices, especially since the oil inventory data is expected to decrease which will automatically translate to the effectiveness of the production cuts, thereby stopping the supply flow and ultimately increasing oil prices, which will then be good news for the Canadian economy.

The Trump administration, unlike the Obama administration, has been creating uncertainties and concerns for the market, especially since most of Trump’s proposed policies are more injurious than beneficial. This has already been seen in the economy after Trump cancelled the Trans-Pacific Partnership and now has his eyes set on the NAFT agreement between US, Canada, and Mexico. If the NAFTA indeed does become cancelled, then this could be disastrous for the Canadian economy and could also adversely affect the US economy. However, the market is still hoping that the attention would be shifted to the trade relations between US and Mexico instead of the US and Canada trade relations. These economic risks, along with surging oil prices, has triggered a decrease in the value of the USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo added volatility after the oil inventory data is released during today’s session. The upward movement of the pair is expected to continue today unless the pair manages to cleanly break through 1.3000 points.
 
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