Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 13, 2017
The pair NZD/USD broker higher on Thursday that is currently trying to test the significant resistance. If the price broke higher than the red Moving Average, this will be an opportunity for long term position for buyers. On the other hand a downtrend line should not be neglected. If the price breaks higher than the range of levels, the market could push this higher towards the 0.73 level. Traders should take note of an exhaustive candle as this signifies an opportunity to sell.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 13, 2017
The USD/CAD pair slumped up to 1.30 handle on Thursday. Later on, the market was able to reverse forming a massive hammer pattern. If the price breaks higher than the top of the hammer, this would signal a bullish tone and could continue to move in the upper channel. However, if the price breaks lower than the 1.30 level then would mean a bearish tone in the market. Nevertheless, the market will remain volatile with a choppy sentiment due to market uncertainty.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017
The USD has attempted to regain its losses against the Japanese yen during the previous trading session as the market went unaffected by a slew of highly positive economic data from China, namely Exports and Imports data, as well as the Chinese Trade Balance data. During the Tokyo trading session last Friday, the USD was able to regain its upward balance following its recent decline, while buyer strength manifested positive bid stances which caused the pair to exceed 115.00 points prior to the opening of the North American session. But this upward movement eventually lost its momentum which then caused the USD/JPY pair to drop back to lower than 115.00 points. Traders also induced the currency pair to drop further to 114.00 points during the middle of the New York trading session. The USD/JPY pair was able to test the 50 EMA in the hourly chart. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is situated at 115.00, while support levels are expected to be at 114.00 points.
For the next trading session, the USD/JPY pair could possibly decrease further in value and could hit 114.00 up to 113.00 points unless buyer strength could help the currency pair to consolidate just above 116.00 points.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017


The USD regained its previous losses following the release of a highly positive Producer Price Index data, while the sterling pound dropped in value as a response to dollar strength and the recent uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process. The GBP/USD pair lost its momentum as it reached over 1.2100 during the early trading sessions last Friday. As the European trading session opened, the pound regained its losses and buyers induced the pricing of the currency pair to increase and reach 1.2200 points during the European session. However, the pair’s momentum faded almost immediately afterwards, with the GBP extending its losses up to 1.2118 points.

The moving averages for the currency pair were all able to sustain its bearish stance, and resistance levels for the GBP/USD pair are expected to be at 1.2200 points. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to be at 1.2100 points. The GBP/USD pair could revert back its losses if it manages to regain its strength at the 1.2200 trading range. If the currency pair will be able to exceed this particular value, then this could cause the bulls for the currency pair to drive the value of the pair towards 1.2300. On the other hand, if the pair drops and moves toward 1.2100, then this means that seller strength will be returning and will cause the pair’s price to plummet further towards 1.2000 points.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017


The release of economic data from the US last Friday lended some much needed support for the US dollar. The retail sales data dropped in value and failed to meet market expectations, while the data for the Producer Price Index came out on a highly positive note and exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the EUR continued to incur losses in spite of upbeat data coming from the European Union, such as the German Wholesale Price Index as well as the Spanish Consumer Price Index.


The euro tried climbing up during Friday’s session but was able to regain its upward bias during the Tokyo session after euro sellers encountered a price barrier at 1.0600 which then caused the EUR to drop in value. As the London session commenced, the EUR/USD pair rose and hit 1.0650 points, with the euro regaining all of its previous losses during the opening of the North American trading session. The price of the currency pair continued its climb and exceeded its moving averages as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are currently pointing in an upward direction, while the 200 EMA stayed within neutral territory. Support levels for the EUR/USD are projected to be at 1.0600, while resistance levels are expected to be at 1.0650 points.


If the EUR/USD pair is unable to exceed 1.0650, then this could cause selling interest for the pair to return. However, if the pair drops and breaks through 1.0600 points, then traders are advised to monitor 1.0550 and 1.0500 points. The EUR/USD will only be able to recover if it is able to sustain its stance at 1.0650 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017


The USD/CAD remained to trade close on its range lows on the back of the dollar’s strength recovery. While the prices of oil appeared to have an optimistic result which assisted the CAD keep in the short term.


The pair plunge under the 1.3100 level following the extensive weakening of the dollar, however, it immediately found buying pressure which supported the pair to return on top of 1.3100.
Over the past few months, the USDCAD showed a consistent uptrend and every correction met a prompt and strong bounce which seems to be repetitive. The way towards the 1.400 medium target suggest a slow progress and the main uptrend supported the bulls to purchase every correction.


Recently, the pair have acquired more buyers and there are banks that started to advise their clients regarding the 1.40 target.
The strong Canadian data with a weak economy of the country is the reason why traders are directed to maintain a hard clean break under 1.3000 which signals that an uptrend has ended.


There are no major economic data from Canada for this day since it was a bank holiday in the United States. It is further expected for a consolidation and ranging close to the range lows today.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 17, 2017


The EUR/USD pair traded weakly during the previous trading session with the weak euro having more effect on the currency pair than the recent dollar weakness. The international economy is now very concerned with UK’s hard Brexit process, since this could spell disaster not only for UK but also for countries within the eurozone. Although the hard Brexit could have less negative effects for the UK, this could instead affect EU countries since most of them are doing business with UK, and the removal of a free trade zone with UK and the rest of the EU could become very disastrous for a lot of EU countries.


This was one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair corrected largely during yesterday’s session and plummeted down to 1.0600 points yesterday and even went lower for some time. The currency pair could have experienced much larger corrections if not for the US bank holiday yesterday.


For today’s trading session, there are no important economic data coming from the eurozone but Theresa May will be speaking during the New York session with regards to the guidelines of the expected hard Brexit. May’s speech could have a negative effect on the value of the euro and traders are expected to take extra caution when it comes to trading with this particular currency pair.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 17, 2017


The GBP/USD pair has been on the verge of breaking down for the entirety of last week’s trading sessions, but the dollar weakness was able to provide some sort of cushion for the weakness in the sterling pound. However, due to the sterling pound’s weakness, the market is expecting the currency pair to bowl over anytime soon, and this was what happened during the weekend and reached up until yesterday’s trading session. Although the GBP was able to reach over 1.2300 points last week, it dropped in value almost immediately and closed down last week’s trading sessions within the pair’s trading lows.


As the UK prepares for an oncoming hard Brexit, the nation’s economy is expected to immediately feel the repercussions of this particular move since the UK could either lose access to the EU free market or pay a hefty sum every time the country requests for access to the European free market. This has then caused the GBP/USD pair to decrease dramatically in value, with the currency pair even testing 1.2000 for a brief period of time, and although the currency pair has managed to somewhat revert from this particular loss, it’s weakness is still very pronounced and could continue for the next trading sessions.


UK PM Theresa May is set to make a speech today with regards to the steps which will need to be taken for the Brexit process to push through and just how hard it will be for the nation to manage to fully exit from the European Union. The sterling pound is then expected to exhibit a very negative trading stance and could even trade at 1.1700 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 17, 2017


The USD/CAD pair spent the majority of yesterday’s trading session consolidating and ranging. The currency pair exhibited an upward trend yesterday due to a US market holiday, which helped prop up the Canadian dollar. In spite of an imminent concern in the international market, the USD/CAD was unaffected for the most part since oil prices were unaffected as well, and this provided a buffer for the currency pair.


The market has been saying for the past few sessions that the USD/CAD pair that this pair is mostly up for a generally upward trading direction, and this streak could only be broken if the currency pair breaks through the 1.3000 region. This could only be triggered if the dollar strength returns, which has been markedly absent over the past few days. The Canadian economic data could also prove to be very crucial with regards to the movement of the pair. Market players had been generally expecting negative data readings from Canada due to lowering oil prices, but so far the market has been getting nothing but highly positive data from the region. This has lended much-needed support for the Canadian dollar but has also prevented the currency from making any progress as compared with other currencies.


The Canadian economy is not scheduled to release any economic data for today but the US Treasury Secretary is set to make a statement during the North American session, and this could induce some volatility in the USD/CAD pair. The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo additional consolidation paired with a bullish bias.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 17, 2017

The New Zealand Dollar stepped back to the negative zone on Monday. The kiwi gaps lower amid the daily open. Meanwhile, buyers successfully wiped out all its losses and showed renewed gains pushing the price towards 0.7150.

Having touched the resistance, bulls failed to hold its upward trajectory and decided to pull out. Sellers were able to take the driver's seat and lead the price down to the 0.7100 region. After the handle were broke, the NZD weakened and headed to 0.7050.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price remained on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs climb higher while 200-EMA is neutral viewed in the same timeframe. Resistance touched 0.7150 mark, support entered 0.7050 range.

The MACD fell off which indicate softening positions for the buyers. RSI moved downwards.

It is recommended to be bearish as for now due to the possibility that the pair will attain 0.7050 region initially. The price expand its decline prior to 0.7000 target.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 17, 2017

The British currency reached its lowest level after three months yesterday. The pound slowed down prior to the speech of Theresa May for tomorrow. It is further expected that PM May will discuss the plans of the UK government in leaving the European Union.

The sterling gaps lower during the daily open on Monday. The price drop from 1.2184 to 1.1197 but it was able to make a minor reversal against its losses eventually.

The buyers drove the GBPUSD upwards and approached near the 1.2100 barrier amid the onset of the EU trades. Bulls were unable to regain the level and shrink away. The GBP fell under the moving averages according to in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) moved lower shown in the same trading chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2100 region, support lies at 1.2000 handle.

The MACD indicator dropped which favored strength for the sellers. RSI kept intact around the negative territory.

It is mentioned in the forecast the bearish tone will prevail based on the 4-hour chart. The cable is currently heading the immediate support close to 1.200 lev
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 17, 2017

The single European currency received a minor support from the data of Trade Balance in the Euroland. Meanwhile, it is expected for the positive release of the January Economic sentiment from ZEW.

However, the euro had softened yesterday. The EUR/USD continued to be in the red even after the downward gap occurred. Sellers pushed the 1.0600 level prior the opening of the EU session. After sellers broke the level, they spread their gains as it pushes the spot through 1.0550.

Moreover, the pair’s trajectory kept a favorable stance in spite of the current decline. The EUR hovered on top of the moving averages shown in the 4-hour chart. The 50-EMA cross upwards through the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs moved northbound while the 200-EMA trended flat indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance entered the 1.0600 level, support plunge through the 1.0550 region.

The MACD indicator grew less which implied weak position for the buyers. RSI oscillator turns away from the overvalued zone and moved southwards.

According to forecasts, sellers are able to expand their gains in the near-term. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0550. A daily close lower than the handle will cause renewed selling pressure to the 1.0500 area.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

The EUR received a much-needed boost from yesterday’s trading events, wherein the USD plummeted and weakened while the sterling pound regained its previous losses across the board. This has then caused the EUR/USD pair to break through the 1.0600 barrier after quite a time and even went up as high as 1.0700 points, where it traded momentarily before settling just below 1.0700 points.

In spite of the fact that Theresa May has indeed announced that the UK is headed for a hard Brexit process, the concerns surrounding this particular occurrence have somewhat diminished, prompting investors to pull out from the USD and onto high-risk areas such as the stock market. The US dollar has since then weakened, and the clarity of the Brexit process has helped in pushing the euro higher. Although the hard Brexit would most probably have an adverse effect on eurozone trades, the renewed clarity of the process has helped placate investors and has created upward support for the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is now seen to possibly reach the 1.0850 trading region.

There are no major economic readings set to be released today from the eurozone, but the US will be releasing its Core CPI and CPI data during the New York session, and these will be closely monitored by investors since a string of good economic data could increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the near future.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017


The GBP/USD pair exhibited heightened volatility during the previous trading session as the dollar lost strength and the sterling pound regained much of its footing in the market. Theresa May’s speech yesterday helped in clearing up some of the murkier parts of the Brexit process, and this has helped in placating various investors and has minimized concerns surrounding the Brexit process, thereby increasing the value of the sterling pound. This has then prompted investors to pull out their funds from the USD, thereby causing the dollar to drop in value.


Theresa May has highlighted in her speech yesterday that the UK will indeed be going for a hard Brexit and will be eliminating any kind of access from the eurozone. However, the PM has reiterated that the UK government will be negotiating with eurozone leaders in order to have a different kind of trade relations with the European bloc. Since this has eliminated confusions surrounding Brexit matters, thereby increasing the pair’s volatility levels. The GBP/USD pair initially dipped to 1.2015 points prior to Theresa May’s speech but quickly climbed up to a daily high of 1.2414 points.


However, there are still a handful of concerns surrounding the Brexit process, and the expected invocation of Article 50 is also seen as a possibly risk for the stance of the currency pair as well as the UK economy. As such, these are expected to continuously pressure the GBP in the next few days.
For today’s session, UK will be releasing its claimant count change data as well as its average earnings data, while US will be releasing its CPI data later today. It remains to be seen whether these data sets would be continuing the string of good economic data during the past few days. If the UK data comes out as positive, then this push the pair upwards to 1.2500 points, although this might not be enough to actually push the currency pair beyond this particular barrier.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 18. 2017

The JPY increased significantly in value against the USD after the majority of investors fled the USD after Donald Trump expressed his concerns that the US dollar might be becoming too strong for the US economy to handle. The US 10-year Treasury Yields plummeted to 2.307% during the early hours of yesterday’s trading session, possibly its lowest intraday levels since November 2016.

This has then lended support for the bears of the USD/JPY pair after the currency pair traded at the lower regions of 112.67 points before making a slight recovery. However, there came a slew of negative US data, such as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to 6.5% from its previous reading of 9.0%.

This reading is indicative of slower business growth in the region for this month. Since the USD/JPY was able to extend over 114.00 points, the currency pair is more than ready to extend sideways.

The pair’s 4-hour chart shows that its momentum indicator retains its bearish stance and is still within the negative side of the chart, while RSI indicators for the currency pair are pointing to the downside. The 100 SMA for the USD/JPY pair has also lowered significantly.

Support levels for the USD/JPY are expected to manifest at the 112.65 points, while resistance levels could possibly appear once the pair hits 113.35 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

The Prime Minister of UK, Theresa May laid out few ground rules yesterday regarding the possible flow of the Brexit process. Global risks were also expected to lessen and in whatever time it might occur, it will likely weigh on the dollar.

The greenbacks were seen to be on its weaker stance prior this event that will hit the currency much harder. This will caused for the USD/CAD to test 1.3000 over and over, there is also a sudden solid bounce upwards.

The USD continued to suffer from the drawbacks due to the risky environment from Trump’s administration which continue to confuse traders and investors because of its vague plans.

Moreover, the expected thrice rate increase of the Fed will likely be supported by the dollar with the medium and long term, however the near-term risk that surround the new US government causes the dollar to soften.

Another test of lows is assumed to occur in case the Canadian data will present an optimistic result. Since the economic data from the region is relatively strong and identify whether this upbeat is from the BOC statement about rate policy or from the media conference of the BOC Governor.

Furthermore, the BOC is scheduled to hold its rate for today, in case the statement cam
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 18, 2017

There are high expectations that the Jobless Rate and Average Earnings will present green figures. Yesterday, bulls were able to take the driver’s seat in a moderate tone. The GBP/USD successfully fill the gap last Monday with the help of an extreme short-term rally.

The sterling pushed 1.2100 during the Asian hours and reached 1.2200 prior the opening session of Europe. The momentum of the pound became short-lived as the level were being tested. The price had tone down, however, continued to stick at the 1.2200 level. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart presents the price escalated and test the 50-EMA. It continued to advance under the moving averages and resume to moved lower. The resistance hit the 1.2200 region, support is at 1.2100.

MACD strengthen which signaled weak position against the sellers. RSI stayed in a neutral stance.

Should the Cable close above 1.2200, a fresh bullish pressure is expected to see. While the daily close on top of 1.2200 bears further risk as the pair rise towards 1.2300. In case the barrier maintains the price, it has a tendency to be in the red again and renewed lows near 1.200.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 18, 2017

German economic sentiment did not meet investor’s outlook. Meanwhile, the market concentrates on the statistics of CPI from EU and Germany.

The pair resumed its short-term upward momentum yesterday. Bulls were able to dominate the market and drove the price higher amid the Asian session. The European currency rallied and take out 1.0650 in the middle Asian hours. The euro expanded its gains and touched 1.0700 level during the EU session.

The price rebounded in the 100-EMA and pass over the 50-EMA upwards, it further settled on top of the moving averages with a bullish slope as indicated in the 1-hour chart. Resistance is seen at 1.0700, support jump in the 1.0650 region.

The MACD increased which favored strength for the buyers. RSI oscillator escaped from the neutral territory and turn back to the positive area.

The technicals displayed a bullish pattern. The EURUSD headed near its immediate resistance at 1.0700. The barrier broke the next level and fixates on 1.0750. We do not rule out the possible decline in profit taking subsequent to the rally took place on Tuesday. Sellers are also able to remove few of its losses if it pushed the price below 1.0650 region and advanced towards 1.0600.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 18, 2017

The greenback slumped on Tuesday’s trading session testing at 1.30 level. The trend moves downward from 1.3598 level. If the downtrend holds the current resistance, then the downtrend could persist towards the next target at 1.2900 level. The strong resistance stands at 1.3189 level and and a break higher than this level completes the downtrend.

If the market could break lower, it is possible for the price to trade below the 1.30 handle. Oppositely, if the price breaks above the candle formed on Tuesday trading session, this could be a buying opportunity while hoping for the oil prices to decline. Yet, it seems that the sellers will sustain the current trend.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

The US dollar finally regained the majority of its losses yesterday after the country released a series of positive economic data, as well as from a handful of fundamental adjustments which occurred in the country during the previous trading session. However, although the dollar strength has already returned, it remains to be seen whether this will eventually continue to become a long-term trend or merely dissipate as a short-term correction for the USD, and with Trump’s inauguration tomorrow, the US dollar is in for some interesting movements in the future.

The USD remained docile during the entirety of yesterday’s Tokyo and European trading session. However, the EUR/USD failed to make significant developments after going through 1.0700 points since it was relying on economic data in order to make actual progress. The CPI data from the US was eventually released and met market expectations, inducing more upward pressure on the USD but was immediately lost in the face of increased volatility in the market. But the real game-changer was Yellen’s speech later in the day, wherein the Fed chair reiterated that if the slew of positive economic data from US continues, then the market could be in for another Fed rate hike anytime soon. This dollar-positive movement has then caused the EUR/USD pair to climb up to 1.0620 points and has now settled just above this particular region. The pair is expected to undergo more pressure as the dollar continues its winning streak across the board.

The ECB will be releasing its rate statement during today’s trading session and will be subsequently followed by a press conference from the central bank. There are no changes expected from the ECB, however it is expected that the central bank would probably highlight its most recent achievements to the market audience. US will also be releasing the Philly Fed Index as well as the Unemployment Claims data, both of which are expected to increase volatility and lend additional support for the USD.
 
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