Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The EUR/USD is still experiencing a tight-lipped trading range after trading within 30 pips. The market liquidity is not expected to increase until next year since there are no signs of currency flows as of late. However, the new year is expected to bring back market liquidity since this signals the end of the holiday season. The EUR/USD had high trading ranges during the North American session yesterday, where it attempted to go beyond 1.0470 points in order to reach 1.0530 points. Meanwhile, the USD exhibited a marked weakness during these past few sessions, particularly against the EUR. This trend is expected to remain for the rest of the week as the market attempts to remove some of the bearishness of other currencies against the USD. The USD’s strength is expected to bounce back next week, and it is therefore vital that the euro bulls would be able to take hold of this opportunity and accomplish all moves in order to avoid the adverse effects of the USD regaining its strength.
There are no major economic data releases expected from the international community for today’s sessions, and this means that added consolidation and ranging could possibly be felt as there are no currency flows which could be a catalyst for added market volatility. As such, traders are advised to tread lightly and remain within the sidelines for this particular period.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The U.K markets are not in operation in the observance of Christmas season which cause low market volatility, the weak volume had strengthened the dollar versus the British currency. The pound further consolidated amid early trades on Tuesday. The cable pair hovered below the area of 1.2300 prior to a fresh selling interest that influenced major currencies.

The traders are able to lead the GBP/USD towards a lower level at 1.2227. The 1-hour chart showed the priced reversed the 50-EMA downwards, the entire moving averages pointed lower which is also indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.2300, support is seen at 1.2200. The MACD histogram softened which implies strong position for the sellers. The RSI reading stayed around the oversold zone.

In case the bearish sentiment continued to prevail, a breakout in the 1.2200 level is expected. Moreover, if the pound and dollar carried a breakout, the next target of the sellers is the 1.2100 support level.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The U.S dollar bolstered yesterday as few dealers decided to make some trade before the New Year celebration take place. The EUR/USD established a neutral position on Tuesday with the same closing level on Friday. The euro had a tough day around the 1.0450 region.
The price tested the 50-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) remained to be bearish. Resistance reached the 1.0450 level, support is at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram lies in the center point. In case the indicator arrived in the negative zone, it would mean improved strength for the sellers. On contrary, the entry within the positive area would indicate buyers ability to dominate the market. RSI procured a neutral position.
An advance movement beyond the 1.0450 will assist buyers in expanding their gains towards the 1.0500 area. However, the price has the possibility to decline in the 1.0350 region if the sellers reclaim the control.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The stock market of Canada is close due to U.K’s official holiday, Boxing Day. While the release of GDP and CPI last week has changed the supposition of the Canadian regulator for the easing of its monetary policy in the near future. The pair remains in the hands of the buyers within its 6-week high. The greenbacks regain some of its losses because traders pushed the price towards the 1.3540 from the previous 1.3500 level.

The short-lived upward momentum further weakened in the predetermined level where the buyers came across the resistance of the sellers.

According to the 4-hour chart, the USDCAD hovered on top of the moving averages. The 50-EMA cross over the 200 and 100 EMA in an upward direction. While the 100 and 200-day moving averages are neutral and the 50-EMA headed up. Resistance highlighted the 1.3540 region, support sits in the 1.3470.

The MACD histogram grew less which confirmed weak position for the buyers. RSI remained overvalued.

If the 1.3540 region were unable to break, it would cause for a downward correction when the pair plunge below the 1.3470 support level. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.3400. The pair is able to expand its gains towards 1.3589 if the buyers break higher.
 
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The trading session for the pair yesterday has been calm and moves lower than the 0.69 handle. Last breakout for the pair was below the 0.70 level. This downtrend is expected to persist over the long term though a near-term bounce is needed to gain momentum to further go down towards the 0.68 handle. The commodities is giving mixed signals but it complements the New Zealand dollar since the Federal Reserve plans to implement several rate hikes before the year ends.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The pair USD/JPY sways within a tight range of 116.54 and 118.66 levels. If the market sustained the support level to be at 116.54, this means a consolidation of the price going upward from 101.18 level but it could further go towards 120.00 level. The main support is found at 114.73 level and a break lower than these psychological level completes the uptrend.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The pair continues to go downward from 0.7524 level. It rebounded to 0.7159 level but this is considered as consolidation of the decline. If the market was able to maintain the level at 1.7280 level, the decline would persist towards the next target at 0.7000 mark. However, if the pair break higher than the 0.7280 Resistance level, the downtrend is completely achieved.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016

The EUR/USD pair became somewhat active during the previous trading session after a lackluster performance during the past few days, and this is especially good news for traders who are waiting for any sign of market activity since the holiday season has caused the market liquidity to diminish. The currency pair was able to go beyond its daily price range of 30-40 pips, and the USD’s recent price surge has caused the EUR/USD pair to plummet below 1.0400 points and even reached 1.0360 points. However, the negative pending home sales data from the US has caused the currency pair to go back above 1.0400 points.

As the new year starts and the holiday season comes to an end, the market’s volatility and liquidity is expected to return, and liquidity levels could possibly go higher. However, the strength of the US dollar is not expected to be stalled anytime soon, and government leaders from both the UK and the European Union are now preparing for the onslaught of the Brexit process next year, which is expected to be very tedious for both regions. On the other hand, Germany will also be holding its elections next year, and the market will be closely monitoring Merkel’s performance before and during the elections. However, until such time that these things happen, market players should first monitor just how long will the USD be able to maintain its recent strong stance. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone as the market adjusts to the very disappointing pending home sales data from the US.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD was able to regain some of its lost strength during the earlier parts of yesterday’s trading session, which was felt all throughout the market, and has also affected the sentiment of the sterling pound. The GBP then plummeted and the GBP/USD pair went way below 1.2200 points after almost two months as a result of a very disappointing home sales data. However, as the North American session commenced, the GBP/USD pair was able to surface over 1.2200 points and has hovered over this level for the rest of the trading session. But it still remains to be seen whether the currency pair would be able to deflect the effects of the USD’s ever-growing strength.
The effects of the long and winding Brexit process is expected to be seen during the next several months since various government leaders from the UK and the EU is set to debate on how to go through with the process in general. These are expected to create a constant pressure for the sterling pound, and all reversions on the part of the GBP/USD could immediately be sold by bears, therefore making it hard for this currency pair to make any significant advancements in the coming months.
For today’s trading session, since there are no major economic data which is set to be released from the UK region, the GBP/USD pair is more likely to encounter more consolidation with a bullish undertone, especially since the market is currently experiencing low volatility and liquidity due to the holiday season.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD/CAD pair continued to trade in an upward direction due to substantial support coming from the USD, which was basically the market’s theme during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was able to maintain its buoyancy in spite of the recent surge in oil prices. Market speculators are now stating that oil prices could be well on its way towards reaching its optimum price and once oil prices stop going in an upward direction, then this could put more pressure on the Canadian dollar, thereby inducing a strong uptrend on the USD/CAD pair.
The USD experienced a short correction during yesterday’s session after the US home sales data came in at a disappointing reading of -2.5% which fell short of initial market expectations of 0.5%. Luckily, the market is now shifting its focus on the Fed’s rate hikes this 2017, particularly the pricing of these rate hikes. The strength of the USD is very evident as of late, since the lack of trading and relatively low market liquidity was unable to mask the dollar’s strong stance, as well as the CAD’s pointed weakness.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from Canada, while the US is expected to release its weekly oil inventory data. Since the market is relatively thin due to the holiday season, expect an added consolidation for the USD/CAD with a bullish undertone.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The dollar's strengthening influence many currencies on Wednesday. The project imposed by Trump about the increase in fiscal spending intended for the country’s economic growth and the recent data from Fed’s 2017 hike plan caused for a stronger stance over the USD.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD is unable to reacquire its gains yesterday. The euro was pushed towards the 1.0450 mark due to a renewed bout of selling amid the EU session. The sellers successfully break the level where it earned some energy to drive the price in a lower position.
As the pair pushed the level below 1.0400, bearish investors expanded its recent gains during the NA trading. As shown in the 1-hour chart, the price breaks the moving averages downwards.
The 200-EMA pointed northwards while the 50-EMA coupled with the 100-day moving averages headed to a lower area as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.0400 region, support settled within the range of 1.0350.
The MACD histogram rested in the centerline. The RSI moved out in the neutral zone and headed south where a present downward reading is confirmed.
According to forecast, the single European currency hovered in the downside. In case the price consolidated under the 1.0450 handle, the decline will continue reaching 1.0400 as it approach the area of 1.0350 .
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The policy tightening of the Fed in 2017 and the recent positive data from the US weighed on the Australian dollar.
The bullishness tried to extend above the 0.7200 however it failed. The AUD/USD lose steam to surge and promptly reversed after it posted a daily high that comes in at 0.7220.
The AUD met a renewed offer on top of the 0.7200 region upon the downfall of the pair beyond the aforesaid level. The pair resumed its downward movement subsequent to the break that approaches its recent low in the 0.7159 area. According to the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded through the 50-EMA downwards and step aside from the MA technical indicators.
The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs plummeted as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance dominated the 0.7200 region, support settled in the 0.7150.
MACD weakened which confirmed strength for the sellers. The RSI shifted southwards, favoring a downward momentum.
According to forecast, the bearish slope prevailed on Wednesday. Should the price focused on the support level below 0.7200, the downward trajectory will continue in the short term. The next target is 0.7100 and 0.7150.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The British currency weighed down by major economic events which include renewed hard Brexit fears together with the UK Mortgage Approvals data that presented lesser than expected result.
Meanwhile, the 1.23 handle was unable to regain after series of attempts. The price rebounded the level and pointed southwards. The greenbacks started to lure buyer’s interest generally. The cable pair moved near the 1.22 support before the New York session.
As indicated in the 1-hour chart, the price rebounded against the 100-EMA and persist to go southwards as it breaks the 50-EMA towards a lower point. Moving averages resumed its bearish trend as shown in the same price chart. Resistance highlighted the 1.2300 region, support touched the 1.2200 level.
The MACD histogram is consistent to be on the same level which implies seller’s strength. RSI hovered in the oversold territory.
The forecast showed that a move below the 1.22 level would trigger for another downside pressure. Sellers are able to lead the sterling under the 1.2150 mark.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 03, 2017

The GBP traded on a more positive note last Friday in spite of the relative lack of liquidity and volatility as a result of the holiday season. However, the gains of the sterling pound was limited by the USD’s strength as the market expects the Federal Reserve to become more stringent with regards to its monetary policies this year. The GBP managed to regain double its losses during Friday’s session as buyers were able to induce the GBP/USD to push through the 1.2300 region during the start of the European trading session and was able to reach the 1.2400 trading range. However, as the currency pair reached this particular level, the upward momentum of the GBP/USD sputtered and eventually dropped, thereby losing a fraction of its recent increases.
The 4-hour chart for the GBP/USD pair showed that the value of the currency pair was able to test its 50 EMA, while the 200 EMA was crossed by the 100 EMA as it was heading towards a downward direction. Meanwhile, the moving averages for the currency pair were able to retain their bearish tones. The resistance levels for the currency pair is speculated to come in at 1.2400, while support levels are expected to be at the 1.2300 region.
If buyers would be able to maintain their hold on the GBP/USD pair, then the value of the currency pair could possibly reach 1.2400 points. If this does not happen and the GBP/USD closes down below 1.2300 points, then this could give way to fresh bearish pressure for the currency pair and seller pressure could possibly induce the pair to drop at 1.2200 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/CAD was one of the few currency pairs which benefited from the dollar index surge, as well as the recent drop in crude oil prices during yesterday’s trading session, which was the result of the carrying out of the recent agreements between oil production firms. The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a somewhat circumspect trading in spite of the dollar strength and has also limited itself to a tight trading range yesterday. The USD/CAD pair made a short-term drop at just below 1.3400 points but eventually reverted back to due an onslaught in demand and is now currently hovering at just below the 1.3450 trading range. The currency pair is expected to increase its strength as the day progresses, especially since majority of traders are now finishing off the holiday season and are now coming back to their trading desks. Even if the increase in the dollar index is not expected to drop anytime soon, its effect on the currency pair is expected to be somewhat subdued since the effect of the dollar surge could be offset by the recent increase in oil prices.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from both Canada and US, and if the USD’s strength continues to go across the board, then the USD/CAD could possibly re-test the 1.3500 levels soon.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The trading session for the pair USD/CAD was not smooth on Tuesday with traders returning from Holiday. Currently the pair is being tested on 1.34 support level while the resistance level is found higher than the 1.35 level. The long-term uptrend may persist if the trend yesterday keeps up but this is not favorable for the Canadian dollar. The psychological levels could continue towards the 1.36 level.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
In spite of the recent surge of the US dollar, the sterling pound was unaffected by the increase in the dollar index and was able to hold on its own. The GBP was able to manage the surge in the USD, thanks to the highly positive economic data from the UK which puts into view that the Brexit process might not be so bad after all and might even help with regards to the bolstering of the UK economy as long as it maintains its free access on the entirety of EU-based markets.
The Manufacturing PMI data from the UK was released yesterday and came in at an impressive reading of 56.1, going way beyond the initial market expectations of 53.3 and therefore helped in cementing the positive value of the sterling pound. One of the reasons why the GBP was able to withstand the increasing strength of the USD is that the market generally expects the worst economic readings from the UK as part of the repercussions of the Brexit process, but the economic data from the region comes out as increasingly positive. However, it still stands that the actual Brexit process has yet to begin, and the question still remains as to whether the UK will still be able to have continuously free market access to the EU markets after the said process.
For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the construction PMI data from the UK, and since the dollar index is expected to retain its strength for today, it is important that this data comes out as positive since this will steer the general direction of the sterling pound. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly plummet to way below 1.2200 points.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD has been exhibiting corrections across the market during the start of today’s trading session, causing the EUR/USD pair to break through 1.0500 before eventually settling at 1.0525 points, with the outlook for the currency pair looking generally positive for today’s session. The market is expected to go through a lot of market volatility during the next few days since there are a number of major economic news releases set to be released in the coming days. However, it is still unclear whether the USD would be able to sustain its corrections in the next few days.
Since there were no economic data released during the first few hours of the previous trading session, the market has shifted its focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Once the minutes were released, however, the USD sustained damages since the minutes did not have any clear hawkish stances. This has caused the EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 and then went even lower as the USD quickly recovered. The currency pair has since then been regaining its footing after the USD lost some of its strength.
For today’s trading session, the major economic news releases include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, a precursor to the NFP data which is set to be released during tomorrow’s trading session. The Unemployment Claims data as well as the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be closely monitored by the majority of market players, since these are expected to continue the generally positive economic trend seen in the US lately. A positive reading from this particular set of data could also become determinants of whether the next interest rate hike from Fed would come earlier, therefore increasing the frequency of hikes. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the USD could be subject to more corrections prior to the release of the NFP economic data.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD/CAD pair exhibited a significantly large correction during yesterday’s trading session after the USD lost some of its value due to the absence of a hawkish undertone on the minutes of the FOMC meeting which was released yesterday. The USD/CAD only weakened further since it had already failed to reach the higher trading regions. The USD/CAD pair is now sitting just over the 1.3300 trading region.
Since oil prices have been generally positive during the past few days, the market expects that its effect would be felt in the current value of the CAD as well, and true enough, the currency pair dropped yesterday while the market went into a lull. The Canadian dollar then extended its losses after the release of the FOMC minutes, which triggered the weakening of the USD and therefore increased the downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
There are no major economic news releases from the Canadian economy for today’s session. However, the US is expecting to release a number of major data, including the Unemployment Claims data, and the ADP employment report. These data are determinant of whether the market would experience added volatility or otherwise, depending on the readings. The US will also be releasing the NFP report tomorrow, which is considered as a critical determinant of market volatility. Traders are encouraged to evaluate the effects of these news releases on the currency pair before trading in on the USD/CAD.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The GBP/USD significantly increased in value during the previous trading session after the USD dropped following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The market was somewhat docile during the rest of yesterday’s session but immediately picked up after the release of the minutes during the North American session yesterday, and has caused the USD to undergo corrections across the board.
However, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to this phenomenon is somewhat docile compared to other USD-related currency pairs, and this is expected to keep the bulls on their toes. Initially, the GBP/USD pair was expected to rise exponentially since the UK construction PMI data clocked in a highly positive reading and exceeded its market expectations of 54.2, and the FOMC minutes lacked the expected hawkishness from the market. But the reason why this currency pair’s growth was significantly limited is that the various risks and uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process continues to dog a lot of traders due to the general confusion within this issue. This is why a number of speculators are saying that the GBP/USD would be receiving the shorter end of the stick once the USD regains its strength.
Although the UK is not expected to release any economic data for today, the US will be releasing a number of important economic data along with the highly essential NFP report, which is expected to determine the overall market sentiment for the rest of the month. If these set of data comes out as positive, then the USD could possibly rebound and could be sustained until the end of January.
 
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