Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 14, 2016
The GBP/USD is still one of the most stable currency pairs as of the moment, with the GBP/USD pair trading way above 1.2700 points. The market is currently waiting for the results of the FOMC meeting, and it is anticipated that the market will be mainly focusing on the Federal Reserve’s activities in the coming weeks after the statement release from the central bank.
There has been no major economic releases from the UK, but the region is expected to enter a period of marked volatility due to the commencement of the actual Brexit process this coming 2017. For the European session, the claimant count change data is expected to be released into the market, and the Bank of England is also expected to make a statement, and these are expected to increase the GBP/USD pair’s volatility levels.
The market is also expecting the release of the FOMC minutes, as well as the details of the press conference which is scheduled immediately after the Fed meeting. However, the central bank’s expected decision to implement a rate hike might not cause much volatility since the majority of traders are now shifting their focus to the details of the subsequent conference, since this could give hints on the future course of the central bank this 2017. The GBP/USD is speculated to become more volatile as compared with other currency pairs, and low volume is expected before the year ends, with prices becoming highly moveable as the end of the year approaches.
 
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: : December 14, 2016
The USD/CHF pair is trading with a bearish tone moving in a downward direction. It is supported by the 50-EMA while the RSI remains neutral at 50 handle. The strong low highs and lows steadied implying a pessimistic outlook. The U.S. ICE index is maintained at 101.00 level.
Currently, the market is anticipating the next rate hike of Fed as high as 25 basis points and if the central bank would change the rates. If the price remained lower than 1.0145, it will continue to do down within the 1.0080 and 1.0035 range
The Resistance level is seen at 1.0170 then 1.0195 to 1.0215 level while the support level comes in at 1.0080 then 1.0060 to 1.0035 level.
 
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 14, 2016
The NZD/USD dropped by 14 points but still rebounded by 25 basis points. Greenback gained from the PMI report of New Zealand which drives the pair's momentum. The central bank of New Zealand that there is no need for further inflation to meet the target. The spike of the currency following the bets in Governor Graeme Wheeler that easing cycle has ended.
The changes in policies have to adjust to guarantee that the target range is met since the cash rate much lower from 0.25 percentage point down to 2.5 percentage point. The current policy rate is adequate although the bank agrees to cut rates when needed.
Kiwi is bound to recovery from last year's tightening of monetary policy. This year inflation rates stand lower than the 2 percent of the midrange as forecasted by the central bank for 6 consecutive years. Although there is reluctancy because of the surge in properties located in Auckland bringing risks in financial stability while the economy shows positive growth.
The Kiwi climbed after the reports and was seen to reach 7.2% as the highest compared to other 16 currencies since September .
 
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis: December 14, 2016
The pair EUR/GBP increased by 7 points with positive reports in German inflation data but the general market is concern with U.S. Federal Reserve. The pair is posited at 0.7223 psychological level. Higher bets in U.S. Federal Reserve that this will move in a different direction and would pursue rate hike during their policy meeting next week. The Monetary Policy Committee seeks to change the market outlook for the next U.S. Fed policy meeting.
Monetary policies of U.K. will mainly be determined from the inflation rates even though central banks from different nations stand alone. There might be no tension from Brexit but it is expected to come in the coming months with the International Monetary Fund focusing on Article IV and its possible effect.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 15, 2016
The Australian Consumer Confidence Index was released during the previous trading session and has exhibited negative data since April 2016. While this might spell disaster for other currency pairs, this means relatively good news for the Australian dollar. The positive sentiment of the market was sustained during Wednesday’s trading session, with the AUD extending its recent profits during the Tokyo and London trading sessions. The AUD/USD was able to go beyond the 0.75 trading level and reached 0.7520 points in the middle of the London trading session. As seen in the 4-hour chart of the AUD/USD pair, the pricing of this particular currency pair was able to test the 200 EMA after the close of the London trading session. The Australian dollar continued to inch higher in the 50 and 100 EMAs, and the 200 EMA exhibited a downward direction. Resistance levels for the AUD/USD is expected to come in at 0.7550 points, while support levels are expected to come in at 0.7500 points.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair dropped, indicating a loss of strength in buyer positions. Meanwhile, the pair’s RSI stayed within the overbought territory. If the AUD/USD is able to break through the 0.7500 range, then this could affirm the bullish stance of the currency pair.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 15, 2016

The EUR traded ambiguously in relation to the USD since traders are still expressing uncertainties prior to the start of the Federal Reserve meeting yesterday. The German Manufacturing PMI data is also expected to come out later today. The EUR/USD pair had a bullish tone for the majority of the previous trading session, and traders were able to induce the pricing of the pair to drop to the 1.0650 trading range but was unable to regain its previous losses. However, a new wave of selling pressure caused the currency pair to hit 1.0600 points. The EUR/USD traded within a tight range during the London trading session and tried to exceed its previous levels during the start of the New York session. According to the pair’s 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair was able to test the 100 and 50 EMAs, and the currency pair remained below its moving averages during the previous session.

The resistance levels for the EUR/USD pair is set to come in at 1.0650, while support levels are expected to come in at 1.0600 points. The MACD indicators for the pair is currently at the center of the chart, and if the histogram is able to go within the positive side of the chart, then this will mean that buyer strength will be increasing as well. However, if the MACD reverts back to the negative side of the chart, then this will enable sellers to regain their stance on the market. The RSI indicators for the EUR/USD remains in the neutral territory.

For today’s trading session, the EUR/USD is expected to go through 1.0500 points and could possibly go even lower and reach the 1.0450 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over 1.0650 points, then this could extend the pair’s buying interest at 1.0700 points.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 15, 2016

The Bank of Japan released a highly positive Tankan Large Manufacturing Index during Wednesday’s trading session, and the foreign bond investment data also exhibited a positive outlook during its release on the early hours of Thursday’s trading session. The USD/JPY pair traded in a somewhat limited consolidation below 116.11 trading points during Wednesday’s session. Meanwhile, the USD remained in a tight trading range all throughout the previous session, with its 4-hour chart showing the pair’s value going over the moving averages. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is targeted to be at 116.00 trading points, while support levels are expected to be seen at 115.00 points.

The MACD indicators for the currency pair dropped, which is indicative of a weakness in buyer positions. The RSI indicators for the currency pair is currently beyond the overbought territory and is pointing in a southbound direction. The USD/JPY could reach 116.11 points if there is renewed buying interest in the currency pair. This could then induce the pair to reach 116.50 points. However, there is also a possibility that the pair could revert back to 114.00 points.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 15, 2016
The pair USD/CAD moved on a lower price channel in the chart that ended the downtrend at 1.3080 level from 1.3536 level. A minor consolidation is seen which could be followed by a rise in price towards the next target at 1.3500 mark. The support level is sited at 1.3200 and if this remains strong, the upward direction would continue.
 
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 15, 2016

The New Zealand dollar depreciated as more investors go for safe haven assets since commodity prices dropped in spite of the tension brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. The pair NZD/USD weakened by 17 points to 0.6698 after the greenback rebounded since the decline on Friday influencing the cross trades while the commodity prices remain low.

Currencies that are heavily influenced by commodities dropped to its lowest recorded rate for more than six years because of a drop in oil prices. Concerns in U.S. Junk bonds reemerged while majority are feeling pressured by the Fed's policy meeting this week. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve Open Committee (FROMC) will proceed with the rate hike since the close to zero policy in December 2008 as the traders rely on hints for future changes.

The New Zealand's BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of services index for November will be announce today. While, Industrial production will also be released today from both Europe and Japan, as well as Tankan manufacturing index will be publicized by Japan.
 
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: December 15, 2016
There is not much activity in the market specifically for the EUR/GBP pair. This could be because of the British Rate announcement scheduled to be publicize this day. It is possible for the price to break lower than the 0.83 handle. When the price surges, sellers could take the lead with opportunities in selling as it implies exhaustion close to the 0.86 handle.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 15, 2016

The FOMC statement is more hawkish than the expected which caused for the EURUSD fell. Moreover, the Fed already imposed an increase on its rates and more rate hikes are expected next year. As the market established a clear indication for the possible two-time price increase

According to previous readings, the highly anticipated December hike by the Fed is deemed to be the least that the central bank can do for the market by which the Federal Reserve are forced to adhere. The dollar’s direction are inclined on the tone of FOMC’s rate hike announcement plus other suggestions made by Chair Yellen during her press con. Furthermore, Janet Yellen admitted that Trump’s success in election caused confusion to the Fed to finalize its decision, however, the resolution is to coordinate with the plans of the U.S President to lower tax rates and heightened expenditures. The hawkish statement of the Fed are implied in order to bolster the dollar. The aforesaid scenarios aided the greenbacks to edged higher but it negatively affect the EURUSD pair and it fell through 1.0650 from the area on top of 1.0650. It also broke a solid support within the 1.0650 and it hovered above the region of 1.0500.

There is no recent news in the Eurozone as of the moment except for the unemployment claims together with the US Manufacturing Index data to be released sooner or later. The pair is expected to endure an extreme pressure as it continued to progress.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016
The US homebuilding declined together with the greenbacks that weakened on Friday. On the other hand, the data for oil prices is positive which brought a favorable result for the loonies. The USD made an attempt to expand its gains also on Friday. Buyers were able to push the price towards 1.3400 region prior to the area of 1.3330 by which the pair found a stable barrier in 1.3400, then continued to depreciate.
Furthermore, the prices slowed down after it touched the aforesaid level and failed to hold its recent gains. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price cross over the 100 and 50-EMAs upwards and tested the 200-EMA. Both 200 and 100-day moving averages slid down while the 50-EMA climb. Resistance is seen at 1.3400, support settled within the 1.3330 region.
The MACD increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. The RSI lies around the overbought zone.
The USD/CAD is expected to drove towards 1.3330 as its support. Supposing the level is successfully broken below, the next level will be 1.3260. Mainly, the pair seems overbought so it prevents corrective actions towards the 1.32 handle.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its previous monetary policies and give more positive economic expectations, thereby cementing speculations that the central bank could possibly induce an interest rate increase instead of a rate cutback. Because of the lack of policy adjustments, USD/JPY traders will now be shifting their focus on BoJ’s Kuroda’s statement regarding the increase in Japanese yields. There are speculations that Kuroda could either talk about economic expectations for 2017 or the risks involved with a sudden surge in bond yields. However, it is more definite that Kuroda will be treading carefully with regards to increasing market expectations of an interest rate hike.
The Bank of Japan could possibly sustain its present pledge-to-guide short term rates at -0.1% and 10-year Japanese Government bond yields at around 0% in spite of a somewhat positive sentiment for the Japanese economy. However, traders are advised to be careful with regards to holding Japanese bond yields at 0%, since long-term interest rates have now increased due to speculations of a steadier US rate hikes and an inflation surge under the Trump administration. The Bank of Japan is now under pressure due to calls for the central bank to add up its 10-year yields target.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
The GBP/USD pair exhibited consolidation and range trading during the past trading session, with the currency pair now trading over 1.2400 points with more consolidation plus a bearish bias for today’s sessions. The currency pair initially exhibited positive movement during the earlier sessions but dropped in value as yesterday’s trading sessions progressed. There were economic releases from the UK during yesterday’s session, but the Scottish Prime Minister has released a statement which inadvertently threatens the UK’s Brexit process after Scotland decided to remain in the European Union, whereas the whole of UK has already decided to relieve themselves from the eurozone. This has already increased the risk of the already very muddled Brexit process since Parliament members are now in the middle of debating the validity of Article 50 which is a vital part of the said process.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic releases expected from the UK but the recent strength of the USD could dominate the whole market, and the continuing confusion with regards to the Brexit process could increase the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair for the coming weeks. Any bounce found in the currency pair should be immediately seen as a short opportunity for this particular currency pair.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
The EUR/USD pair has been subject to immense pressure during the previous trading session due to the USD’s increase in value, along with a number of geopolitical occurrences that made an impact in the international financial market. The EUR/USD pair started out strong during yesterday’s trading session and attempted to break through its resistance levels of 1.0465 points. However, the pair was unable to go beyond this particular area even if the German Ifo Business Climate data turned out to be much better than expected.
The drop in the value of the EUR/USD pair continued up until the New York session, where Yellen released a statement which turned out to be very hawkish for the USD and increase dollar buys, thereby incurring more losses for the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is now just over 1.0400 points and the pair could further drop in the subsequent trading sessions.
Today’s trading session is markedly lacking of important news releases from the Eurozone and the US, and this could cause the EUR/USD pair to be swayed by currency flows. The pair could also experience consolidation with a bearish bias since liquidity during the holidays is expected to diminish. The pair could possibly drop further and any reversions at the 1.0465 region is an opportunity to immediately sell the currency pair.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
The Aussie is on its 6-month low and further weakened as it looks forward for the issuance of the AAA-rated budget for the Australian government. The minutes of the meeting will be release this morning by the Australian regulator.
Despite of the strengthening of USD on Monday, the AUD established a weak position. The recovery occurred on Friday from its recent low 0.7270 had slowed down within the 0.73 since a new bout arise in the pressured area that pushed the market towards a lower place.
The price reversed the level and lost its legs towards the 0.7250 region. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA in a downward position. All moving averages pointed lower. Resistance touched the 0.7300, support entered the 0.7250 area.
The MACD grew less which means a stronger stance for the sellers. RSI lies in the oversold territory.
Sellers are able to expand its gains through the marks 0.7200 and 0.7250.
 
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
It is anticipated for the pair USD/CHF to trade in a bearish tone. The market is trying to breach the 1.0300 Resistance level not to move further up. The Relative Strength Index is signifying mix signals but traders should still be careful. It is too early to tell how long the consolidation would persist.
According to Markit U.S. Services PMI declined to 53.4 as preliminary estimated from 54.6 in the prior month. The Markit U.S. Composite PMI dropped to 53.7 as preliminary estimated in December lower than the 54.9 results last month.
The Resistance level is seen at 1.0320 then 1.0345 to 1.0375 levels while the Support level posited at 1.0235 then 1.0210 to 1.0180 levels. If the psychological level at 1.0300 remained string, this could further go down to 1.0235 then 1.0210 level
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is in consolidation within the predicted range. It is moving in an upward direction which was supported by the strong U.S. dollar which may persist for quite some time including in the medium term considering the market trend in preparation for the rate hike.

The market positioned a 55 basis points with the next 2 to 3 rate hike in mind for next year as mentioned in the last Fed meeting. There is a tendency for the price to overshoot as this will be the focus in the market. In turn, this will be beneficial for the greenback. Regards to oil prices, it is in consolidation with the strong market sentiment about to fade and shifting its focus to its execution instead. The Bank of Canada is projecting the economy is doing well but the not in the real data.

It is foreseen that once Trump would officially take charge in January, this would balance out the trade between U.S. and its neighboring countries. This could greatly affect the loonie which would then force its central bank to reduce rates. These two contradicting events would contribute in the surge of the pair.

There will be no major news to be released today. It may stay to consolidate within range giving a bullish tone in the financial market.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
The Japanese yen rose despite all the export and import trades data gave positive results. However it is an average gains while the traders still await of the results in the Bank of Japan meeting. It is anticipated for the policies to remain unchanged.
Minor retracement is seen on a bullish trend on Monday. The pair rallied for 200 pips last week that gave way for yen. Sellers tried to move the price higher towards 117.00 level from 118.00 level but the pair decided to move lower. The price swayed higher than the moving averages which is in an upward direction.
The Resistance was seen at 118.00 level while the support is posited at 117.00. Buyers stance is weakening as indicated in the MACD with RSI moving downward.
The investors are gaining profit from the recent surge with the U.S. Dollar maintaining its retracement. Although this is not confirmed, the trend is signaling a bullish tone. It is possible for a break at 118.00 Resistance level with the next target at 119.00 mark.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
The successive events regarding the dollar stabilization due to the plans of Fed for 2017 plus the empty calendar of the United Kingdom had weighed on the sterling. The cable pair is trending in the short-term descending channel. Moreover, the GBPUSD struggled to reach the 1.2500 region during the early trades that took place yesterday. The buyers failed the battle which caused them to drop its gains. The aforesaid region turned down the British currency which made a steep decline pointing to the 1.24 handle during the mid-session of Europe.
The pair surpassed the 1.24 mark in the onset of New York trading and resumed to move through the 1.23 region. Resistance is seen at 1.2400, support sits at 1.2300 region.
The indicators continued to sink around the negative zone. The price rebounded the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA coupled with the 200-day moving averages headed upwards, at the same time the 50-EMA shifted to a lower point. The MACD histogram traded in the downside. RSI hovered in the oversold levels which indicate a new downtrend.
It seems that a bearish sentiment prevails. Furthermore, it is much anticipated that the GBP/USD will enter the 1.2400 range.
 
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