Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 8, 2016


The USD/CAD intended to carry out a market rally yesterday, however, it failed to move higher and reached the 1.32 level downwards. The aforesaid region has been the uptrend line of the pair which previously has become an important area also for the USDCAD. A strong support from a candle is needed in order to take a long position. In case that an oil price rollback arises, it could further help the pair to push through.
A breakdown scenario will lead the pair to close down from the 1.32 handle which coincides the market’s possible declivity.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016
The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value.
Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points.
There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 9, 2016
The Japanese yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar because of the decline of GDP of the country. An increase in tension for greenbacks after the ECB decided not to changes its current monetary policy that rallied the pair.
Sellers tried to pushed the prices lower towards the 113.000 level during the Asian session giving mixed trend in the market yesterday as the price rebounded and stayed higher than the said level. Moreover, the market for the pair became attractive as it moved upwards during the North American session.
The Resistance level is seen at 115.00 level while the Support sited at 114.00 mark.The traders was not able to move the price above the 115.00 level but the price broke at 114.00. The market is focusing on 114.00 level but if there was a clean break, then the trend will shift towards the 115.00 level.
The 50-EMA showed a rebound in the price of the pair seen in the 4-hours chart maintaining its bullish slope. Its MACD histogram showed buyers leading the market supported by RSI as it moves upward.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The GBP/USD pair had a lackluster performance during the entirety of last week’s trading sessions since the sterling pound experienced constant pressure from the much stronger euro. The EUR plummeted last week after the ECB announced its plans to extend its quantitative easing program, and the EUR/GBP lost a significant amount of its value, causing the sterling pound to be affected as well. Prior to this sudden drop in value, the GBP has previously exhibited remarkable resiliency in spite of the confusion caused by the Brexit process. The GBP rose during the first part of last week and was even able to go through 1.2700 points before eventually reaching 1.2800 points before the announcement from the ECB dragged the GBP down.
The GBP was also subject to added pressure due to delays in the implementation of the Brexit strategies as the Parliament is in the middle of heated debates regarding the implementation of Article 50 on the region. Since the timeline for the Brexit remains uncertain in spite of numerous meetings and debates within the Parliament, the sterling pound is expected to remain under pressure and any form of reversion should be immediately seen as a sell-off opportunity for the currency pair.
For this week, the market is expecting the release of the CPI data as well as the Claimant count change data from the from the UK. The Bank of England is also expected to make a statement on whether the central bank would be maintaining its current interest rate of 0.25%, and the Fed is also scheduled to make an announcement regarding its interest rate hike, as well as a statement on whether the central bank will be adding up the frequency of its rate hikes next year. Due to the large number of economic data scheduled to be released this week, the market is expected to undergo an especially high level of volatility within the week.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The USD/CAD was subject to pressure for the majority of last week’s trading sessions due to the continued buoyancy of oil prices despite a short drop in the commodity’s price. Since the Canadian dollar is hugely reliant on crude oil prices and with the fluctuations in oil prices, the CAD has been subject to wildly erratic activity during the past week as well. Presently, market players are expecting that oil prices would experience further surges during this week and the USD/CAD is expected to be subject to more pressure for this week as well.
The economic releases from Canada last week turned out to be pretty positive, with the Canadian trade balance data clinching the string of positive economic data from the region. The Bank of Canada has also decided last week that it will be sustaining its rates at 0.5%, signalling remarkable improvements in the Canadian economy and is expected to further improve due to future increases in oil prices. The currency pair is now forming strong support bases at the 1.3180 trading region.
For this week, the Federal Reserve is set to release its statement with regards to its long-anticipated interest rate hike, and the market currently has expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike, plus hints on whether the central bank would be increasing the frequency of its hikes this coming 2017. The US is also set to release its retail sales data, while Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, and these are expected to induce volatility for the USD/CAD this week. Analysts are speculating that if the pair manages to sustain its place at the 1.3000 region, then the currency pair would be able to continue its upward direction especially since crude oil prices could become tapered in the near future.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The USD increased in relation to the JPY and was able to reach its highest levels since January. The USD/JPY pair finished off last week’s trading session at 115.291 points after surging by up to 115.291 points or +1.61%. This particular close marks the fifth consecutive positive close for the currency pair, its longest strong streak in over two years. As investors anticipated the ECB’s monetary decisions and interest rate plans last week, the USD/JPY exhibited sideways trading for the most part of last week’s trading session.
However, the ECB’s announcement left uncertainties for the financial market in general after the central bank announced the extension of its QE program up until 2017, when the initial market expectations regarding the bank announcement was the bank announcing either the tapering of its present stimulus or increasing the bank’s economic stimulus. Furthermore, the European Central Bank has also announced that it will be cutting back its purchases by up to 60 billion EUR per month.
For this particular week, the main market catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s statement on its monetary decisions, as well as its much-awaited interest rate decision this coming December 14. The USD/JPY would only be able to continue its rally if the Fed decides to increase the frequency of its future rate hikes in 2017. If the Fed decides to have a maximum of two rate hikes next year, then the currency pair would most likely be subject to added selling pressure. However, if the Fed decides to have more than two rate hikes next year, then the USD/JPY would be able to extend its rallies within the week.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The decision of the ECB to maintain its monetary policy had strengthened the dollar. However, the euro is weakening once again after it made a dipped on its fresh monthly highs and failed to hold its gains. Meanwhile, the EURUSD headed southwards on Friday. During the EU hours, the sellers successfully broke the 1.0600 region then continued to lead the prices through the 1.0550 lower, the pair surpass this level amid the NY session. The price rebounded in the 200-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. After the euro and greens had broke both 50 and 100-EMAs, it continued to progress down in the moving averages. While the 100 and 200 EMAs preserved its bearish bias, 50 EMA rendered a neutral stance. Resistance touched the area of 1.0600, support is seen at 1.0550.
The MACD histogram makes its entry point within the negative zone. Should the indicator kept unmoved in the negative area, the sellers are able to gain further strength. The RSI remains oversold.
In case the prices settled below the 1.0600 support level, this will cause for a short-term downtrend. The next target of the sellers is 1.0500 and 1.0550.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance established an optimistic data on Friday along with the strengthening of the sterling pound. The British currency procured some ground during the earlier trading session on Friday. Buyers drove the prices towards a higher position and tested the 1.2600 level amid the European session. The upward impetus short-lived consequent to the test, following the GBP’s rollback below the level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the cable pair rebounded through the 50-EMA. Moving averages uphold its bullish bias.
Resistance lies in the 1.2600 are, the support sits at the 1.2500 region. The MACD histogram pierced through the negative range. When the MACD stayed in the negative zone, sellers will obtain more strength. The RSI is within the neutral territory.
The GBPUSD is expected to weaken upon the break below the 1.2600 level. Likewise, this could lead the prices towards 1.2500.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The Aussie traded mixed following the release of Australia and China’s economic data Home loans grew less as the Chinese and Australian manufacturing PMI presented greater than the anticipated results. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD is trading higher than the previous amid EU sessions on Friday. The rally faded within the 0.7500 region, which acts a strong support and further rejected the prices downwards. The Australian dollar rebounded the 0.7500 area and shifted towards the 0.7450. The price made a reversal in the 50-EMA and moved to the 200-EMA wherein the price is rejected downwards. Both 200 and 100 EMAs are trending lower and the 50-day moving average seems neutral. Resistance reached the 0.7500 level, support is seen at 0.7450. The MACD histogram traded downside. RSI remained neutral.
The bulls will decide to withdraw upon the failure of the pair to extend its gains. In case the price plunge to 0.7500, it would continue to weaken until it reaches the 0.7450 region. Moreover, the downtrend is expected to expand the seller’s position towards 0.7350.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The Japanese yen experienced downward pressure during Monday’s session due to the OPEC production deal as well as the positive market sentiment with regards to the Fed rate hike scheduled this December. Japan had recently released its Machinery Order and turned out to be positive, but even this particular economic data’s effect paled in comparison to the aforementioned events which had a much larger impact on the safe haven currency.
The price of the USD/JPY pair reverted from 116.00 points and went back to the 115.00 trading range. As seen in the currency pair’s 4-hour chart, the price of the USD/JPY stayed just above its moving averages and continued to inch higher. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is seen to be at 116.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 115.00 points.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair increased, showing a surge in buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators were able to remain within the overvalued regions. The market is now monitoring the pair’s current position at 116.00, and if the USD/JPY manages to break through this region, then the pair could possibly hit the 117.00 trading region.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The USD/CAD pair remained under 1.3120 points and has now clinched its tenth day in the lower rung of the trading range. The CAD dropped during the previous trading session due to a 5% increase in crude oil prices after the OPEC meeting last week, which included non-OPEC oil-producing countries, with the participants altogether agreeing to implement production cuts on oil. Participants who were not OPEC members all agreed to productions cuts amounting to a total of 600,000 bpd, with Russia contributing a total cut of 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its possible plans to further cut back on its production of oil. However, in spite of the uncertainty on whether oil producers would be able to push through with their planned production cuts, an increase in oil prices would most definitely help in augmenting US shale production and could offset the production cuts announced last week.
The Canadian trade market would be able to benefit from steady increases in crude oil prices, as the USD/CAD’s 200 EMA is presently at 1.3075 points and is in line with 1.3040 on the lower region of the trading chart. Resistance levels for the USD/CAD pair is at the 1.3175-1.3185 trading region, and the pair shows signs of becoming oversold. Market players are now expecting a retrace if the 200 EMA maintains its current levels within the week.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The weakness of the U.S dollar is felt widespread. In spite of the fact that the Fed are certain to have a rate increase, the greens remained on its recent highs. The British pound remained sluggish versus its American counterpart, however, the GBP met a strong support in the 1.2600 region which helped the pound to minimize downside volatility.
There is an anticipated buying within the 1.2500 level. Buyer tried to make some recovery and surpass the 1.26 mark, but they failed to expand its gains and it kept intact above the broken level upon the onset of New York trading session. The 4-hour chart showed the price tested the 50-EMA and it remained in the middle of 50 and 100-day moving averages. The entire moving averages carried a bullish slope. The current resistance touched the 1.2700 level, support has procured the 1.2600 area. The MACD histogram sits on the same level which favored additional strength for the sellers. The RSI is trending upwards. The short-term downtrend will continue in case that the price settled in the support level of 1.2600. The next target of the sellers is 1.2400-1.2500.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The single European currency had strengthened while dollar continued to soften in the market together with a risk-off sentiment. Traders await for the Fed meeting to be held on Wednesday. The pair stayed in the downside of the market yesterday. The price made a reversal from the 1.0525 handle and exhibited upward swings through 1.0600.
Buyers successfully surpass the level and expanded its gains towards the region of 1.0650.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price has been tested by the 100-EMA. While, the moving averages preserved its bearish signal. Resistance is seen in the 1.0650 area, support landed at the 1.0600 level. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram hovered on its previous range which confirmed seller's strength. The RSI approached the neutral position.
In case that the market prevailed a bearish sentiment, the pair will be sold upon the 1.0600 contractions. Sellers still have the power to push the price until it reaches the 1.0500 region. Mainly, the euro may continue to recover supposing that it w
 
AUD/USD Technical analysis: December 13, 2016
The pair moves in an upward direction breaking above the 0.7508 Resistance level from 0.7369 mark. If the uptrend continues, the next target will be 0.7600 level. The Support level comes at 0.7428 level and if a break below this line is seen, this confirms the uptrend of the pair.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The NZD strengthened after Bill English was sworn in as New-Zealand's new Prime Minister.
The New Zealand currency heightened after the recent reports regarding the newly appointed Prime Minister of New Zealand, Bill English who's a leader also of the National Party. This event has relieved the anxiety in the political realm of the country. The kiwi was able to recover due to the oil output deal of OPEC which improved the investor’s overall mood. The NZD reversed its losses consequent to its session low around the 0.7115 area. Traders push through the 0.7150 level during the early trades, drove through the 0.72 handle. The level was tested amid the North American hours.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price reverse the 50-EMA and surpass the 200-EMA towards a higher position. Both 50 and 200 EMAs secured a neutral seat, at the same time, 100-EMA edged higher. The resistance touched the 0.7200 region, support settled at the 0.7150 level. The MACD indicator traded upside. The RSI is in the overbought readings.
Should the price break the 0.72 and settled above it, a medium term with a negative outlook will neutralize. Moreover, the NZD hope to extend its gains towards 0.7250. When failed to do so, the plans of the bulls are expected to prevail, with this, the price will turn to 0.71.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 14, 2016
The loonie is in upbeat due to the support supplied by oil prices rally, while the greenbacks had a poor performance in trading. Bearish structure that waves downwards recorded from November highs persists yesterday. The price traded down the lower limit of a descending pattern. The U.S dollar met a stable support in the 1.3100 level subsequent to the losses it suffered from five consecutive sessions. The pair is trading in a tight range and attempted to reclaim the level during the EU hours.
Moreover, the sellers break the level before the NY opening. The price develops down from the moving averages as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs headed to a lower position. Resistance touched the 1.3120 handle, support is seen in the level of 1.3050.
The MACD histogram traded in the downside. RSI remained oversold.
Should a break below the 1.3120 area will provide strength for sellers by which they are able to expand their gains from 1.3050 up to 1.3070. In case the USD CAD edged higher than 1.3120, an upward movement will initiate promptly.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 14, 2016.
The Consumer Price Index came in with an optimistic result which helped the GBP to gain more strength. Along with this, the Retail Price Index presented a positive outcome while the Producer Price Index lose the hope investors due to negative results. Furthermore, trading with the pound seems bullish this week. The British currency successfully reclaimed the 1.26 handle and expanded its 1-week highs towards 1.27 region. The buyers found the resistance level of the sellers within the aforesaid level, buyers attempted to pass through the region.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded through the 100-EMA, while the 50-EMA are being pushed at the same time. Moving averages continued to be bullish. Resistance is seen at 1.2700, support sits around the 1.2600. MACD indicator rose which indicated strength position for the buyers. The RSI stayed overvalued.
Supposing that the ongoing positive signals will last longer, the sterling still has the chance to move closer towards 1.2740 area. However, if it plummeted below the 1.2650 mark, the possibility of an upward movement to occur will fade. Granted that, there are higher odds for a decline as far as 1.2600.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 14, 2016
The Economic Sentiment for Germany remained unchanged despite investor’s growth expectation, with this, euro established a weakening position. According to technical indicators, the market is bearish yesterday. Meanwhile, the pair continues to move within the descending channel, seeing the single European currency to procure a sluggish position but successfully maintain its stance above the support level of 1.0600.
The sellers started to tower above the market considering the greens were able to retrieve its gains from the sharp losses occurred on Monday. During the trading, the dollar made a reversal from its weekly highs as it attempted to push the 1.0600 area at the same time.
Moreover, the EURUSD did not succeed to recover the level and continued to rebounded before the onset of NY sessions. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price made a bounced off in the 100-EMA to a downward direction. Resistance touched the 1.0650 region, support is at 1.0600.
The MACD histogram traded downside while the RSI is neutralized.
According to speculations, the downtrend has the tendency to persist. The pair is expected to approach the area of 1.0600 first. In case the initial target was hit, the next potential spot will be 1.0500 and 1.0550.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 14, 2016
The US and Japanese economy had an empty market calendar due to lack of economic releases during the previous trading session. However, the market is now anticipating the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, which is expected to contain affirmation of the much-awaited Fed interest rate hike. The four-week uptrend of the USD/JPY pair was sustained during Tuesday’s trading session, and the positive bearish sentiment was able to induce the pair to decrease in value The USD’s recent uptick was stopped by resistance which was found at the 116.00 region, and the USD/JPY p air reverted back to its original support levels of 115.00 where it remained for the rest of the trading session last Tuesday. The 50, 100, and 200 EMAs sustained their bullish stance, and resistance levels for the currency pair continue to be expected at 116.00 points. Meanwhile, support levels for the currency pair are expected to be at 115.00 points.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair remained at its previous range, which is indicative of increasing buyer strength. The RSI indicators for the USD/JPY pair were able to leave overvalued readings. The bullishness of the market is expected to remain, however a consolidation is expected to occur in the near future. The market is now monitoring the resistance levels of 116.00, and if the pair manages to go beyond this particular region, then the pair could possibly reach the 117.00 trading region.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 14, 2016
The USD/CAD pair is still trading within the lower regions of the chart, with the 1.3000 trading range seen as a key range for the currency pair. Once the pair goes below 1.3000 points, then this could offset the previous uptick in the movement of the pair and could be very beneficial for the bearish market players. The pair was able to remain within the tight-range territory due to lack of activity from the Canadian economy as well as from the crude oil market.
In spite of the fact that the Canadian economy is largely dependent on the activity of oil prices, the USD/CAD was able to sustain its value even when faced with fluctuations in crude oil prices paired with a steadily positive economic data from the country. However, the currency pair is expected to remain under pressure for as long as oil prices are able to sustain its recently high value. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut back on its interest rates this coming 2017, and this could have an effect on the Canadian currency. This also partly explains why the USD/CAD pair is mostly bullish for this term.
For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases expected from Canada. However, the US is set to release its retail sales data, as well as the minutes of the first part of the FOMC meeting, which could induce volatility in the movement of the USD/CAD pair. If the pair reaches 1.3000 points, then a stop loss is advised just below 1.2980 points.
 
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