Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
Along with the positive report from the German Business climate is the strengthening of the single European currency. But the upbeat of euro was impeded by a fresh selling interest.
Meanwhile, the market appeared to be calm within this week as the greenbacks slowed down towards its major rivals amid the Asian session. The EUR edged over the dollar and further recovered during the trades on Monday while the dollar continued to soften. Buyers pushed the price through 1.0475 level by which the seller’s resistance is found. The renewed selling pressure caused the pair to slid down the 1.0450 region in the post-EU open. Moreover, the pair approached the 1.0400 mark throughout the North American Trading session. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA towards a lower point. The entire moving averages manage a descending trend. Current resistance touched the 1.0450 level, support settled within the 1.0400 area.
The MACD histogram declined as it indicated stronger stance for the sellers. RSI holds the oversold territory and signaled a downward movement.
Should the pair remained under the level of 1.0450 in order for the market to continue its moving to enter the 1.0350 and 1.0400 regions.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2016
The GBP/USD pair is now struggling to cope with the effects of the markedly low liquidity during this holiday season, much like other currency pairs. However, the GBP/USD managed to fare relatively better in terms of market volatility as compared to other currencies since it had a 100-pip range for the previous trading sessions. In spite of the USD’s current strength becoming the dominant feature of the financial market, the lack of market volatility has managed to offset the USD’s strength and has become advantageous to other currencies such as the sterling pound. The USD is expected to regain market control eventually, but until that happens, then the GBP could still range and consolidate at the lower region of 1.2500 points.
As the Brexit process resumes, the GBP/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias for the short term and medium term, especially since Scotland is apparently disagreeing with UK’s plans to leave the European Union and the UK will have to exert more effort in order to negotiate with all involved parties and make way for an easier Brexit process. Theresa May will also be needing additional support as the Brexit process begins, which is expected to become a long and arduous process.
For today’s session, there are no major news releases from Britain, and with the holiday season fast approaching, liquidity is expected to drop further which could lead to more ranging and consolidation on most currency pairs.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The monetary policy of the United States is expected to tighten in 2017 which reinforced the U.S dollar to lead the market. Meanwhile, the Asian recovery was unable to beat the predetermined level 1.24 on Tuesday. Its daily high is posted at 1.2408 by which the recovery stopped along with the mid-session of Asia.
Moreover, the total volume of trades amps up amid the EU hours following a renewed selling interest that negatively influenced the British currency and had their fresh lows at the 1.2300 level. According to in the 4-hour chart, the price traded below the moving averages. The 50-EMA cross the 100-EMA in a downward direction, while 200 and 100 EMAs established a neutral stance and the 50- day moving averages headed lower. The resistance touches the 1.2400 level, support lies in at 1.2300 region.
MACD fell off which confirmed strength on the seller’s position.The RSI is closed to the oversold territory. There is a higher chance that a downward trend will continue towards the 1.2200 range. In addition, sellers should push the 1.23 region first.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The remarks of Yellen about the strengthening of the U.S job market plus the 2017 plan for Fed tightening subsidize the greenbacks, however, weighed heavily on higher-yielding New Zealand dollar. The NZD continued to be bearish and slid down through 0.6900 during the mid-Europe session held yesterday.
Upon successfully breaking the level, sellers had expanded its gain through the 0.6850 region. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the price traded under the moving averages as the 50-EMA pass over the 100 and 200-EMAs in a lower point. Moreover, the entire moving averages sustained its bearish pattern. Current resistance touched the 0.6900 area, support settled around the 0.6850 level.
MACD grew less which confirmed stronger stance for the sellers. The RSI approached the oversold zone in which supports a renewed downward movement. The NZD/USD will reach the 0.6850 after it broke the 0.6900 region. Should the price advance towards the 0.6800 upon beating its initial target.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The successive economic events that arise did not affect the current market condition, these reports include the positive Producer Price Index for Germany and Yellen’s speech in a hawkish way that strengthened the U.S dollar. Meanwhile, the single European currency resumed its softening yesterday. The pair tried to accomplish a short recovery during the morning trades, however, the EUR/USD weakened upon exceeding through the 1.0400 region where it met a renewed risk-on that influence a negative mood towards the market. In a short while later, the pair bounced back below the 1.0400 level and headed to the area of 1.0350 before the onset of NY sessions, at the same time, the euro tested the 1.0350.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price continued to decline lower than the moving averages that edged lower as well. Resistance entered the 1.0400 level, support holds the 1.0350 handle.
The MACD histogram kept its previous position which indicates strength for the sellers. The RSI touched the oversold zone as it supports for a new downtrend.
In case the pair closed below 1.0350, it is anticipated that it would extend downwards the 1.0300 range for the following days. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.0250.
 
EUR/AUD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The pair EUR/AUD is moving in a downward direction linking its latest highs and lows. Price rebounded at 1.440 psychological level back to its 1.4100 support level. The 100-SMA is higher than the 200-SMA where there is lesser constraint in the upper channel. This means that it is possible for a breakout on the higher zone in the next test resistance.
The Stochastic level is in the oversold area and is moving upward implying buyers are taking the lead in the market. If the current resistance level is breached, it could go further up towards the next ceiling between 1.4500 to 1.4550 zone.
Trader’s confidence has dropped since the latest terror attack in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland. The Italy’s banking sector being the concern globally with the need for bailout especially its largest banks. Moreover, the decision of the European Central Bank for an extension to its Quantitative Easing program up to December next year could drag the currency even lower.
The agitation between U.S. and China has an impact to the Australian dollar. It is expected for the commodity price to decline including its business activity due to Fed’s tightening monetary policies pushing the high-yielding currency lower.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2016

There is not much activity for the pair USD/CAD with few days left before the Christmas holiday. Since there are significant news event in the financial market, there would be no driver to boost trading in different directions which also limits the spread up to 80 pips for the whole daily range, lower by 33% than the average daily range. It is anticipated for the trading range of the pair to further decline especially since the weekend is near and the last days of the year.

In the next few months, liquidity and volatility is expected to increase pushed by appreciation of the greenback with the expected 2 or more rate hikes as announced by Fed for next year. The pair would continue its uptrend with the medium target at 1.4000 level. This has been the target for quite some time and it may take a long time for the traders to reach this price. There have been few corrections for the past months but they aren’t that big which are countered by strong buying bringing the price back every time. Hence, the uptrend is maintained as is expected to persist.

There is any major news to be released today from Canada and U.S. area except for the Oil inventory data. This may bring in some volatility although this may not be sufficient to cause a break in the price trend and move out from consolidation for this day.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The pair AUD/USD dropped yesterday but rebounded higher than the 0.72 support level and formed a hammer pattern. This signals a bullish trend but the price could further go up towards the 0.73 level or even higher. If a resistive candle is formed, there would be opportunities for selling with a break below the base of the hammer. Moreover, the decline in gold puts a bearish tension to the Aussie.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The NZD’s recent drop in value was stalled due to the release of highly positive economic data from the region, namely the GDP and Current Accounts data, both of which exhibited highly positive sentiments. The NZD/USD pair stayed within the 0.6900 level and hovered within this range for the rest of the day. As seen in the pair’s hourly chart, the pair’s value was able to test the 50 EMA. Resistance levels for the NZD/USD pair will be at 0.6950, while support levels are expected to be at 0.6900 points.
The MACD indicators for the pair increased, which is indicative of a weakening in seller positions. The RSI indicators for the currency pair stayed within the oversold region and is currently in a northbound direction which shows the upward momentum of the currency pair. The pair is expected to go upwards as soon as it reaches resistance levels of 0.6950 points, and if the pair manages to go beyond its resistance levels, then the pair could possibly reach the 0.7000 level.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The sterling pound remained under pressure during Friday’s trading session as the release of the GDP data for the third quarter as well as the Current Account data failed to make an impact on the value of the GBP in spite of their upbeat sentiments. The GBP/USD pair maintained its bearish undertone during Friday’s trading session, and the pair’s sentiment was cemented after the the currency pair dipped below 1.2300 points. The currency pair then reached a daily price low of 1.2250 just before the opening of the London trading session. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair showed that the pair’s value continued to develop even way beyond its moving averages while the moving averages themselves continue to head in a downward direction. The resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.2300, while support levels could possibly come in at 1.2200 points. The MACD indicators for the pair remained in its previous level, indicating seller strength. The RSI indicators for the GBP/USD pair also remained in the oversold area.
If the value of the GBP manages to drop below 1.2250 points, then this could make way for a renewed selling pressure and could cause the sterling pound to plummet below 1.2200 points. The GBP/USD could possibly hover at the support area of 1.2160 before eventually going down further to 1.2100 points.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The EUR received significant support from economic data in the eurozone, which turned out to be highly positive. The German Consumer Confidence Survey were able to meet initial market expectations, while Consumer Spending data from France increased as opposed to its previous reading. Meanwhile, the GDP data from the region maintained its previous reading. The EUR was able to extend its gains during last Friday’s London trading session, which was relatively muted due to the holiday season.
However, the market is exhibiting low liquidity levels since majority of investors are still currently in the midst of celebrating the holidays. This then caused the effects of the positive economic data to be somewhat subdued as compared to a normal trading session. As seen in the hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair, the pricing for the currency pair is currently situated in the middle of the 50 and 200 EMA. The 200 and 100 EMAs were able to sustain their bearish stances while the 50 EMA is currently facing in an upward direction. The resistance levels for the currency pair are expected to come in at 1.0450, while support levels are expected to be at 1.0400 points.
If the pricing of the EUR/USD consolidates way below the pair’s first target, then this could cause the EUR/USD pair to drop at 1.0350 points. Conversely, the EUR might be able to sustain its bid stance if it reclaims the 1.0450 level, and this could induce the pair to increase up to 1.0500 points.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
The pair USD/CAD positions within a tight range on both side of 1.3500 level since the market returned from holiday with sluggish trading activity. This may persist for some time this week bringing low volatility and liquidity in the market.
Last Friday, the pair closed on low note but still not enough to push the pair higher balanced out by the gaining strength of U.S. dollars today. Despite the changes in oil prices making a comeback this year and the agreement to reduction of oil production later this year causing the prices up did not swayed the strength of Canadian dollar. The bulls also failed to bring correction in the pair. The expected rate hike next year added more pressure for the bulls making it more difficult with seldom corrections in the price trend but this correction can be seen as an opportunity to trade long positions instead. The lowest target for this pair is at 1.40 handle and giving a positive outlook for the medium uptrend.
There is no major news to be released today from Canada. Nonetheless, traders should expect a bullish tone in today’s trading session.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
After the holidays, the market returned in a slow trading condition moving towards consolidation within a range instead of an active trading session. Moreover, traders from Australia, New Zealand and UK are not present making the volatility and liquidity more sluggish for today.
Last Friday’s trading session ended low while no other pairs took advantage of this as they remained in a consolidation state last week. The pair GBP/USD retained its low position as it consolidates at a tight range below the 1.2300 level. However, we expected a change in volatility condition near the middle of the week nearing the last days of the month. Another factor is due payment of U.K.’s membership fees of to European Union amounting to a number of billion pounds which would affect the price progression and its volatility in the market. The exact date if payments remains unknown but these would directly affect trading of the pair and in turn indirectly affect the pound. Thus, traders have to consider these conditions while trading the pair toward the end of the month.
As for the economic news, there is no major events from U.K as the market is on leave. Hence, it is expected for the pair to remain in a consolidation state today. While the U.S. dollar is presumed to trade in a neutral or a little bit bearish for the whole week that will support the activity for today and for the rest of the week.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
The market returned to its normal condition after the Christmas day, however, there are some traders that haven’t returned prior to the New Year’s celebration. Usually, the week after the festive season presents a more volatile period and more liquidity in comparison to the week before Christmas. This happens because 2017 is fast approaching, pressing the banks and funds to balance their books, check their bad stocks, assess their present positions in order to have better opportunities in New Year.
New Year follows the month end which affects the flow of currencies in the market and demands for a larger amount of fund conversions.
The major pair EUR/USD are involved in the UK’s responsibility to amend payments in the Euro area every month which traditionally costs billion pounds where it also disturbs the stance of the EUR/GBP.
As of this writing, there are no major economic reports from the European region except with the data regarding Consumer Confidence Index. The United States also does not have any news. Generally, the pair is expected to consolidate with a mild bullish tone, however, need to have a 1.0500 clean break for the pair in order to accomplish some progress.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The stock market of Japan will not be operating on Friday to give way the birthday celebration of The Emperor. On the other hand, investors secured their positions prior to the holiday season.
The USD/JPY pair is currently in the period of downside consolidation and traded with a slightly bearish sentiment.
Moreover, the market is in the moderate phase of trading a week before the Christmas day in spite of the shortage of liquidity. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 50-EMA but unable to shift to a lower position. The price hovered on top of the moving averages.
Resistance reached the 118.00 level, support is seen at 117.00 region.
The MACD histogram settled in the center point. In case the indicator entered the negative, zone, seller’s strength will grow but if it pierced the positive territory, buyers will have the ability to dominate the market. RSI lies in the neutral area.
The bearish tone generally exist in the market on Friday. The yen and dollar pointed in the 117.00 support level. The next target is 119.00. Supposing that it failed to break a lower point will drive the market in the 118.00 and 118.50 marks.
 
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
As the week ends the AUD/USD pair established a weak position wherein the traders seems affected in the decline of iron ore prices along with the divergence of the monetary policies between the RBA and the Fed. The selling pressure was triggered also by the current thin trading.
Today marks another week for a holiday and it will be a tough day for the market to drive up the volume. Moreover, traders are told to steer clear of volatility spikes based on the latest news headlines.
Major economic reports are not present in the market today, however, dealers have the opportunity to engage with the news from U.S which involves the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI at 1400 GMT with an expected 5.0% which is close to the previous result of 5.1%.
Furthermore, the daily swing chart showed that the main trend is moving downwards and it's a long way to maneuver an upward trend. This extended price movements pushed the market towards a closing price reversal with a bullish condition. The next potential downside target is .7145 which is also expected to be the bottom on May 24, followed by the .7107, the predicted bottom for February 29. While the upside ratio is .7279 that will shift a minor trend to an advancing volume.
During the early trades, the market will test the .7145. When the selling pressure persists, the move will switch to .7107. The .7097 downtrend angle will drive the Aussie and American dollar in a bear position.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
After the holidays, the market returned in a slow trading condition moving towards consolidation within a range instead of an active trading session. Moreover, traders from Australia, New Zealand and UK are not present making the volatility and liquidity more sluggish for today.
Last Friday’s trading session ended low while no other pairs took advantage of this as they remained in a consolidation state last week. The pair GBP/USD retained its low position as it consolidates at a tight range below the 1.2300 level. However, we expected a change in volatility condition near the middle of the week nearing the last days of the month. Another factor is due payment of U.K.’s membership fees of to European Union amounting to a number of billion pounds which would affect the price progression and its volatility in the market. The exact date if payments remains unknown but these would directly affect trading of the pair and in turn indirectly affect the pound. Thus, traders have to consider these conditions while trading the pair toward the end of the month.
As for the economic news, there is no major events from U.K as the market is on leave. Hence, it is expected for the pair to remain in a consolidation state today. While the U.S. dollar is presumed to trade in a neutral or a little bit bearish for the whole week that will support the activity for today and for the rest of the week.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The USD/CAD pair is still trading with a bullish stance after spending almost the whole of the previous session trading above 1.3500 points, and this trend is expected to continue for today’s session. The USD traded on a somewhat much weaker tone in relation to other currencies, but in the loonie’s case the weakness of the US dollar seemed to have little if not completely no effect on this particular currency, with the CAD easily trading over 1.3500 points and could possibly become more positive when the USD regains some of its recent losses next week. Market speculators have long since been saying that the CAD might soon be subject to a very strong uptrend, and traders should be loading up on longs in order to make way for bigger future gains.
The USD/CAD pair seems to be already unaffected by the movement of oil prices unlike a few weeks back, wherein the CAD had significant reactions to the wild careening of oil prices. Now, in spite of the recent increase in oil prices, the CAD continues to trade strongly. However, the next few weeks are expected to hit an adverse effect on the Canadian economy since the recent economic data from the region has done little to appease investor sentiment, and oil prices are expected to continue increasing, and Trump will be assuming office in January. The somewhat weakening of the CAD is evidence of this foreboding string of events next year.
Today’s trading session will most likely be characterized by more consolidation and ranging with a bullish undertone since there are no major news releases from the Canadian economy.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The GBP/USD pair traded within a tight range of 50 pips during yesterday’s trading session, and is expected to continue this particular trend along with ranging and consolidation for today’s session unless interrupted by a currency flow just before the month ends. The UK market was characterized by a remarkably low level of liquidity yesterday due to a UK holiday. However, some market players are banking on an increase in volatility just before this month draws to a close, as well as currency flows which could possibly occur towards the end of the week. However, the recent market trends are not expected to become completely altered even if the month-end currency flows appear and induce market volatility. This is because the recent dollar weakness is expected to continue up until the end of this week, and since the USD is expected to bounce back immediately after the holiday season, the recent trends might still be sustained even after the holidays.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases expected from UK, and this means that the GBP/USD would most likely engage in more ranging and consolidation up until the end of today’s series of sessions.
 
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