Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 22, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the effect of good expectations worked on the markets - according to Michel Barnier, investors sensed the possibility of an EU-UK deal and began to buy both the euro and the pound. As a result, the euro grew by 39 points, the pound by 198 points. The euro did not reach the target level of 1.1915 by around 35 points, which raises a difficult question, will it work out at all or not? The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already begun to reverse.

The Marlin is also turning around on the 4-hour timeline, but there are no actual reversal signals yet. It is very likely that the price will still reach the designated target, slightly going beyond it in order to reach the MACD line on the daily scale, and this will form a divergence reversal with Marlin.

So, we are waiting for the price to grow to the previously indicated level in the area of the MACD line on the daily chart at 1.191520.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 23, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair keeps going lower as the corrective cycle from the local high at 1.3180 continues. The price has broken below the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at 1.3074 and is heading towards the level of 50% located at 1.3041. The market is coming off the overbought levels, so the price might get below 1.3000 zome again. The key technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2982 - 1.3017. Moreover, it is worth to keep an eye on the upper channel line again for any indication of broken support.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3222
WR2 - 1.3147
WR1 - 1.3005
Weekly Pivot - 1.2924
WS1 - 1.2790
WS2 - 1.2718
WS3 - 1.2567

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 26, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fully recovered on Friday after falling on Thursday, now the price intends to reach the target level of 1.1917 - the highs of September 10 and August 6. Perhaps growth will be slightly higher in order to reach the MACD line. The highest peak is seen at the upper border of the price channel at 1.1960. The Marlin oscillator is growing, the bullish trend of the corrective plan continues.

The price rises after a false departure under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is its own sign of continuing the movement after a false price maneuver. The same maneuver was made by the Marlin oscillator, now the price is in a growing position for all indicators on this timeframe. We are waiting for the price to rise to the designated target of 1.1917.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 27, 2020

AUD/USD
The aussie lost 14 points yesterday, staying within Friday's boundaries and target support at 0.7120. As we suspected yesterday, the aussie was thwarted by commodity markets; oil -1.50%, iron ore -0.6%, copper -1.42%. But the price goes up.

The Marlin oscillator is trying to enter the growth zone for the second day, the balance indicator line sets the price to maneuver to 0.7190.

Growth is constrained by the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Getting the price to settle above it will bring the aussie to the target level of 0.7190. Also, the price can continue rising when it leaves the area above yesterday's high.

This plan can be crossed out when the price falls below Friday's low of 0.7102, then the target will be 0.7058.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 28, 2020

EUR/USD
The dollar has been strengthening since the beginning of the week. Investors are starting to invest in Biden's victory in the US presidential election, as well as in obtaining a democratic majority in both houses of Congress. To strengthen the euro's downward movement, the price needs to settle below the target level of 1.1754. When this task is completed, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will move into the negative zone, which will strengthen the trend. The first target after that will be the 1.1650 level. To consolidate the trend, the price also needs to gain a foothold below the red balance indicator line.

The four-hour chart shows that the situation is completely decreasing, the price has settled below the balance and MACD lines, while Marlin is declining in the negative zone. We look forward to a decline in prices and reinforcement of the fall on the daily chart.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 29, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro has fueled the expected fall. The single currency lost 40 points yesterday, the reason for this was the introduction of a strict quarantine in France and a fall in oil by 4%. The price has overcome the target level of 1.1754 and is currently gathering forces under it to fall further to the next target of 1.1650. This movement is delayed by the red balance indicator line on the daily chart. The oscillatory line touched the border of the decline area yesterday, now the price has to build up strength to break through the technical supports.

There are no signs of a possible deep correction on the four-hour chart, the accumulation of forces is likely to have a consolidation character. We are waiting for the price to move to 1.1650 once it is completed.

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EUR/USD Forecast for October 30, 2020

EUR/USD
On Thursday, the Euro fell by 72 points, having worked out the first target of 1.1650 as the minimum of the day. This goal was worked out qualitatively. This was worked out on good market volumes, with technical confirmation of the Marlin oscillator by moving to the zone of negative values. This is a zone of a downward trend to fix the price under the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart. The reason for this movement was the ECB meeting, at which it was decided to change the current monetary policy towards easing in December. The next step of the price is waiting for its transition to the level of 1.1650 and working out the subsequent goal of 1.1550, this is the minimum of November 2017.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator turns up, the Marlin is slightly discharged, not wanting to go deeper into the oversold zone. We are then waiting for a new wave of decline to the designated goal. It is possible that the price will go below 1.1650 only on Monday.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 2, 2020

EUR/USD
Last Friday the euro settled below the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe. The MACD indicator line turned down, while the Marlin oscillator settled in the downward trend zone. The situation is completely downward in the medium term. The closest target is the 1.1590 level, then 1.1495.

A weak convergence formed according to Marlin on the four-hour chart, this gives a precondition for the price to settle before the presidential elections in the United States. The price will likely settle in a narrow range below the 1.1650 level.

As for the price's behavior after Biden's victory, the dollar will most likely strengthen, since we see no reason for the opposite due to the victory of the Democrats. In the current economic cycle and with geopolitical events, a strong dollar is beneficial to the United States, regardless of the party that came to power. Moreover, the euro's growth back in July-August was speculative, since no financial institution in the United States, be it a bank or an investment company, gave an intelligible answer to this growth. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows the largest volume of accumulated long positions in the euro over the past nine months, it's time to send the bulls to the slaughterhouses. We expect the euro to start falling from 1.1165-1.1200 within 2-3 weeks.

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AUD / USD Forecast for November 3, 2020

AUD / USD
In the last two days, the Australian Dollar the range of fluctuations increased against the background of mixed dynamics in the commodity markets and the upcoming elections in the US but in general the price does not move above the level of 0.7058. It is probably choosing it as a platform for working out the nested line of the price channel in the area of 0.6937. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line has returned to the border with the growth territory. From here, a downward turn is possible and the price may fall further. The first goal is 0.6970 and overcoming it will create a condition for a breakthrough to 0.6937. Fixing the price below this level opens up the prospect of further decline.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro gained 75 points on Tuesday due to below average trading volumes. Undoubtedly, this was a speculative growth in anticipation of the start of the national vote in the United States. The price has reached the target level of 1.1754 today. Getting the price to settle above 1.1754 may lead to rising towards 1.1880, but we consider this scenario as an alternative, since Biden is ahead of Trump at the moment with a score of 89 voters against 72. To win, you need to get 270 conditional voters, that is, a certain number of them depending on the victory in a specific state. We believe that Joe Biden's victory will lead to a stronger dollar. Also, the Senate is leaving the Republicans' control - 35% versus 49% of the Democrats.

The daily chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reverses from the border of the growth area. We are waiting for the price to go under 1.1590, then it will continue to fall to 1.1495.

The four-hour chart shows that the price did not break any of the indicator lines above, it only punctured the MACD line. For high volatility, this is a typical case for large players to control the situation. Getting the price to settle below 1.1590 will be an important sign of the euro's succeeding decline.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 5, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday the market spent a day in disputes and expectations on the US election results. Joe Biden, having seized the leadership from the very beginning, holding it until this morning, he now has 253 votes against Trump's 214, 71.471 million votes were cast for Biden against Trump's 67.968 million. To win for the presidency, a candidate needs to recruit 270 voters. The alignment in the Senate has slightly changed - the Democrats lost the leadership, they now have 47 seats against 48 for the Republicans (50 are needed to control the upper house), the House of Representatives remains with the Democrats: 197 seats against 186. Votes can be counted for a few more days, since many voters voted by mail.

Investors were worried - the trading volume for the euro was the highest in the last five months, the trading range was 168 points. The media wrote that Biden's victory will be followed by a weakening of the dollar, but we repeat: the Democratic establishment traditionally followed the policy of a strong dollar after some periods of exclusion, especially when it was necessary to pull the economy out of the crisis. In the current situation, the demand for dollars will be supported by the demand for US public debt (in connection with the new aid package) and the change of Trump's state paradigm "divide and conquer" to the "unite and conquer" paradigm, which will be expressed in the unfreezing of projects of transoceanic partnerships and an early agreement with Britain on its exit from the EU. In the long term, we expect the euro to be below parity.

The daily chart shows that the euro returned to the area of the balance indicator line, while the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally right along the border of the downward area. Perhaps the euro will reach the lower target level of 1.1620 by today or tomorrow.

The price needs to overcome yesterday's high (1.1770) in order to move up, and it also needs to take the nearest target at 1.1830, which is the peak on October 9.

The price cannot go above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator turns to the downside without waiting for it. There are no clear signals for a reversal yet, but there are no signals for succeeding growth either. So we should wait until the market reacts to the results of the presidential elections.

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AUD/USD Forecast for November 6, 2020

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed a rare side of high dynamics as its growth was just over a hundred points ahead of the Euro. The growth stopped at the daily Kruzenshtern line and this morning the price started to reverse. Leaving the price with a consolidation under 0.7222 will mean a reversal of this dynamics in the opposite direction, the first goal will be 0.7120, then 0.7058. Growth is possible with a 35% probability. To do this, the price needs to overcome yesterday's high and the target will be the upper limit of the price channel at 0.7335.

Based on the four-hour scale chart, the reversal is not yet pronounced, the indicators only show its possible beginning, albeit with a high probability. To confirm it, you need to wait for the price to fall below the nearest level of 0.7222.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 9, 2020

EUR/USD
US data on employment came out good: 638,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector against the forecast of 600,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 61.4% to 61.7%, the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 % to 6.9%, dropping to the level of September 2014. Unemployment fell by 53% in six months, which, of course, is a good pace. But the dollar dropped 0.27% on Friday, while the euro rose by 50 points. The business media have portrayed this growth, as well as all of the euro's growth since election day, with an increase in risk appetite and anticipation of a massive stimulus package. But we don't think so. This is far from the same interest in risk that was seen in 2013 or 2017, for example, with big businesses setting the euro exchange rate at 1.32 and 1.15 in each period. We do not know what track the business is interested in, but it is unlikely to be 1.18. We even doubt that corporations need a second aid package. To understand the current situation, you need to dig deeper.

Each so-called aid package is spent by corporations in two main areas: for speculation in stock markets and for takeover of large companies in other countries. US President Donald Trump, according to the Democrats, made the main mistake in his policy - by freezing projects of transoceanic partnerships, he went deep, in particular, in sanctions against individual countries. With the arrival of Biden, one can expect a resumption of American-style globalization (Pacific partnerships), a US-UK trade deal regardless of the outcome of Brexit, and continued expansion of British-American companies to third countries. All these tasks require a strong dollar, not an ephemeral interest in risk, which is used as a cover for banal speculation for the time being.

The euro has currently overcome the target level of 1.1880, it is possible to reach the MACD line at 1.1915 (daily). Overcoming the MACD line will allow the price to reach the resistance of the upper line of the price channel at around 1.1950. Getting the price to settle below 1.1880 could bring prices back below 1.1830. The bears could aim for 1.1770. No clear direction for today, volatility could also be low.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 10, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro did not beat around the bush and decided to strengthen the correction, as it looked into the collapse of gold (-4.51%) and silver (-6.90%)n. The euro has lost 62 points since Friday's close.

The price touched the upper shadow of the MACD line and decisively reversed from it on the daily chart. Now the price needs to fall below the balance indicator line, since it will be easier for the price to drop in this case. The Marlin oscillator is moving down, but is also staying in the growth trend zone, the market has not cooled down after last week's growth, a second attempt to attack the MACD line in the 1.1915 area and further, towards the price channel line in the 1.1948 area.

The price has settled below the nearest level of 1.1830 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is attacking the border of the bears' territory. Falling below yesterday's low may extend the movement to the MACD line towards the target level of 1.1750. And being able to settle below it will become a sign of the price's intention to go down further, where the first target will be the level of 1.1620. The likelihood of rising and falling further at the moment is roughly 55% versus 45%. We are waiting for the situation to unfold.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro traded with a range of 30 points on Tuesday, closing the day near its opening. Markets took a short break after Monday's increased activity. The euro was unable to grow following oil (4.95%) and gold (0.75%), since the index of economic sentiment in the euro area fell from 52.3 to 32.8 in November and also on the understanding that the recent report of Pfizer about 90% effectiveness of their vaccine meant that 94 out of 43,538 people with covid were vaccinated, it is assumed that all vaccinated test participants were then infected with the virus to obtain statistical material. Of course, the participants in the experiment were not intentionally infected, and the message was a common PR move.

But does this mean that the euro will fall? This cannot be answered in the current situation, since the price is in a neutral position from a technical point of view - the price is settling below the target level of 1.1830 with the horizontally moving Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. There is interest in buying when the price is above the balance line, but the medium and long-term trend is adjusted downward when it is below the MACD line. Since no mood is clearly expressed, and if we assume that the fervor of the bulls has not yet dried up, then the price may try to attack the MACD line for the second time. Getting the price to settle below the 1.1750 level, will most likely cause a desire to reach the September low (1.1620).

The price is settling above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the declining zone. Taken together, this may be a sign of consolidation with the intention to break down below the MACD line, near the target level 1.1750.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 12, 2020

USD/JPY
On the daily chart for the third day, the Japanese yen is held above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a small horizontal range, increasing the probability of price growth to the nearest target of 106.03 along the price channel line.

But this plan has an alternative, which manifests itself when considering the situation on a four-hour scale. Yesterday, the price went up from the triangle, then returned to its top, converting the triangle into a flag.

Meanwhile, a divergence was formed based on Marlin. Since the price is close to going under the forming lines of the flag and triangle, working out the target level of 104.75 is possible. By this time, the Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe may be in the zone of negative values. Fixing the price at 104.75 will open the target of 104.05 at the minimum on September 21. If the price is fixed at 104.75, the MACD line on H4 can be easily overcome by increasing dynamics. The probability of both upward and downward development is the same, and the uncertainty can be resolved today.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 13, 2020

USD / JPY
The Japanese yen, under yesterday's pressure from the stock market, strengthened (decreased on the chart) by 29 pips, breaking the support of the MACD line on the daily chart. Then, today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair lost the same amount, and in order for the quotes to continue the decline, the bears have to overcome the support of the price channel at 104.75. Around the same time, the Marlin Oscillator will move into negative territory, which will strengthen the declining market sentiment. The target of the movement will be the level of 104.05, which is near the lows reached on October 29 and September 21.

The four-hour chart shows that the MACD line (104.52) is located slightly below the level of 104.75. Therefore, to ensure that the pair does not fall under the price channel, the quotes have to fall below the MACD line. Converging the price with the Marlin Oscillator will be effective for this, especially since at the moment, the signal line has already entered the zone of negative values. The prevailing scenario is bearish, and a consolidation below 104.05 will certainly trigger a downward move towards 103.18.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 16, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said he needed to do more to block "smart" US traders from illegally accessing its global stock exchange. In an interview with the financial media, CZ said its stock exchange needs to be "smarter about the way we block" US traders from accessing the platform:

"Basically, we are constantly trying to improve our security. Sometimes there are a few guys who want to bypass our locks and still use the platform. We have to come up with a smarter way to strengthen protection, and when we do, we lock them."

Binance, which is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, stopped serving US traders in September 2019 due to regulatory risk. The stock market later launched Binance.US in partnership with BAM Trading Services, which was approved by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to serve US clients. Binance.US is a separate entity that licenses technology from Binance and receives brand support from the Malta Stock Exchange.

Binance.US transaction volumes are said to be only a small fraction of the daily turnover on the main Binance exchange. However, reported volumes are often inflated and do not reflect actual trading activity. It is said that the big stock exchanges continue to publish false figures.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving lower towards the level of $440 after the corrective cycle had started. The local low was made at the level of $438.18, but the market keeps moving inside of the descending channel. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the swing high located at the level of $476.29. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $459.47. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $507.71
WR2 - $490.25
WR1 - $463.71
Weekly Pivot - $448.80
WS1 - $421.33
WS2 - $405.66
WS3 - $377.90

Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2020

EUR/USD
Markets continue to actively play out the popular topic of coronavirus vaccines. Yesterday, American company Moderna announced successful tests of the second phase. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.16%, the euro by 17 points. Obviously, until new investment topics are available, investors continue to be optimistic about the development of new vaccines and the vaccination process itself. But this topic will soon become boring, because yesterday's growth was not as pronounced as it was after the news from Pfizer.

The daily chart shows that nothing is holding back the price from moving to the nearest targets of 1.1910 along the MACD line and 1.1940 along the line of the descending price channel. The Marlin oscillator is growing.

The four-hour chart shows that the price settled above the balance indicator line, which strengthened the mood for buy positions on the euro, the Marlin oscillator also settled in the positive trend zone. Yesterday's trading volume exceeded Friday's. We are waiting for the EUR/USD to rise towards the designated targets.

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AUD/USD Forecast for November 18, 2020

AUD / USD The Australian Dollar lost 20 points yesterday. Yesterday's peak allowed us to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator. To fix it and actually turn the market down, the price needs to be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line-- below 0.7264-- and then fall below the nearest target level of 0.7222 at least on November 12-13. The nearest target is 0.7120.

On the four-hour chart, the price is already attacking the Kruzenshtern line at 0.7275. Note that the Krusenstern lines on both time charts almost coincide in price, which makes the 0.7264/75 range particularly important.

Fixing under the specified range can trigger a strong drop in the price. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on H4 has already entered the zone of negative values. The probability of a downward scenario is 80%.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
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