Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 5, 2020

USD/JPY The dollar continued to grow against the yen yesterday (23 percentage points) despite the decline in stock indices: the S&P 500 was down -0.34%, while the Nikkei 225 is losing -0.32% in the Asian session today. It seems that investors are counting on good US employment data today and continued growth in related markets. If such expectations are met, then with the price overcoming the first target level of 109.50, growth will continue to the second target level of 110.83 (November 2017 low).

A weak divergence has formed on the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, the structure is more similar to the indicator discharging before further growth. But this pattern is also a harbinger of increased intraday volatility, which is quite consistent with today's release of important US data.

We are waiting for a clarification of the situation - whether investors will change their minds to buy risk.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 8, 2020

AUD/USD The Australian dollar is moving sideways at a target level of 0.6975 since Friday last week as well this morning. The sideways movement increased the technical divergence on the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the movement to the first support of 0.6830.

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The Marlin divergence has also developed on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator is attacking the border of the downward trend territory. If the price consolidates below 0.6830, the price will also go under the MACD indicator line, respectively, the fall will likely continue towards the lower target of 0.6680.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro closed at the opening level on Monday, supported by the target level of 1.1265. The Marlin oscillator has strengthened the decline on a daily basis. On the first attempt, the price failed to overcome the immediate support, today we are waiting for a more successful attempt. Target at 1.1200.

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Price taking above support at 1.1265 is visible on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is on the territory of the declining trend - in the lower half of negative values. We are waiting for the price to try overcoming the nearest support and decrease to 1.1200 and further to 1.1125 - to the price channel line on the daily.

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USA on verge of bankruptcy

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The Economist columnist John Williams believes that the unprecedented printing of money may lead to runaway inflation and the depreciation of the global currencies. In his opinion, the US financial system has totally gone the limit and will save not only every bank, but also every financial institution as well as the stock market.

The expert also claims that the real unemployment rate in the US is 35% now instead of 13% reported by the US Labor Department. His opinion is well-founded, as Mr. Williams is the creator of the Shadowstats website. He claims that there, statistics is collected without tricks that are regularly used by the government to make numbers look better.

John Williams considers that the US GDP will fall by about 50% in the second quarter thus hitting the bottom. A real renewal should be expected no earlier than in the fourth quarter because in April, the US industrial production slumped to a record low over the past century. Besides retail sales fell by 60-80%.

He believes that the price of gold and silver will rise significantly very soon.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its forecasts for the economy: GDP at 6.5% for 2020, and 5.0% for 2021, inflation forecast for this year was 0.8%, and 1.6% for the future. The regulator expects an unemployment rate of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in the year 2021. The dollar index lost 0.32%, while the euro grew by 33 points. The only forecast of the Fed which raises a clear doubt, is the forecast for inflation. The release of huge money supply into the open market in the framework of combating the epidemic and supporting the unemployed population cannot but cause much stronger inflation. Very soon, the Fed will be forced to raise rates even contrary to an earlier promise not to do so before the end of the year. However, for the remaining six months, you can still manipulate statistics so that this is not very obvious, and shift the focus from developing inflation to employment problems. As a result, the euro is unlikely to continue to strengthen on yesterday's data from the Fed, investors understand the unreliability of these forecasts.

The euro is staying in the range of target levels 1.1322-1.1416. According to the Marlin oscillator, a small divergence forms on the daily chart, but this can become a reversal signal.

Divergence is more pronounced on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price under 1.1322, which will also correspond to the price falling below the MACD line (it is going up), opens the underlying consecutive goals: 1.1265, 1.1200, 1.1125.

Consolidating the price over 1.1416 may extend the current branch to 1.1495.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on June 12, 2020

The bullish movement of the quotes yesterday was 300 pips, which indicates the strength of the buyers. Any fall of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter buy positions, since the probability of updating the weekly high is 75%, which makes long positions profitable.

The most favorable levels for buy positions are within the limits of the WCZ 1/2 1.3524-1.3509, a test of which will be decisive for the bullish impulse.

Today, the pair is trading within the average weekly move, which increases the likelihood of a downward correction. The fall will occur against yesterday's strong movement, so entering sell positions is quite risky. Instead, use the drop as an opportunity to find a favorable level for buy positions in the trading instrument.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 42 points last Friday. It did not reach the target level of 1.1200 by 13 points, we are waiting for its development in the near future and only after that a local correction in the range of 1.1200/65. A small divergence on the Marlin oscillator continues to remain in force. Overcoming the price level of 1.2000 will allow the price to fall even deeper, to the price channel line in the region of 1.1120.

The price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the price is kept below the level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, from the lower border of which it has turned up, which indicates that the price will likely fall only in the evening.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 16, 2020

AUD/USD
Yesterday evening, the aggressive growth of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's statement about the intention to buy corporate bonds from the secondary market pushed the Australian currency up, it ended the day above a strong technical level of 0.6900. The Marlin oscillator is growing; formally, the target 0.7080 is open before the price.

Considering the situation on a smaller four-hour chart indicates the presence of an alternative scenario that has a high probability of implementation - a price reversal from current levels, from the notched MACD line (indicator blue). The Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values. Price taking above yesterday's high will still launch the first scenario with an increase to 0.7080. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD price moved towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2674, but bulls was not strong enough to break through it and the price reversed. The market conditions are now bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might risk another wave up from the current levels towards the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2747. Nevertheless, they have to violate the level of 1.2674 first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3034
WR2 - 1.2910
WR1 - 1.2681
Weekly Pivot - 1.2581
WS1 - 1.2343
WS2 - 1.2226
WS3 - 1.2014

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 18, 2020

USD/JPY
The yen strengthened by 30 points on Wednesday due to lower stock indices, which looks like a decrease in the USD/JPY pair on the chart. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 0.36%, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 1.22% today. The price went below the MACD line on the daily chart, while Marlin is declining. The target at 105.90 as support for the embedded line of the price channel is open. In case we overcome support, we expect the price at the second target of 105.40.

The price has consolidated under the red balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator line has entered the declining trend zone this morning. We are waiting for prices at the first target of 105.90.

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USD/CHF price movement, June 19, 2020

On the 4 hour chart now, we can see that USD/CHF is now moving in a narrow range. Overall, this pair has already formed a Triangle Pattern. It means that the USD/CHF pair will soon decline especially if this pair breaks out and closes bellow the red rectangle/ It will break through 0.9480 and 0.9375. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above 0.9553.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020

EUR/USD
Last Friday, buyers of the dollar managed to restrain the onslaught of the euro bulls and keep the single currency in a downward local trend of the last ten days. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has penetrated the territory of the bears, now it is easier for the market trend to reach the target along the embedded line of the price channel of 1.1115. Overcoming this support opens the second target of 1.1010.

The four-hour chart shows that the euro's growth in the first half of the day was restrained by the balance indicator line, that is, the growth occurred in the framework of the general decreasing trend, which strengthens this trend itself. Now in the struggle of the local trend with convergence, the Marlin oscillator has a higher chance of winning the trend. We are waiting for the price at 1.1115.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 23, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has tested the lower level of the support range located at 1.1185 and bounced towards the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1265. The oversold market conditions might help the bulls to test the nearest technical resistance, but they must break through the short-term trend line resistance in order to regain the control over the market. Any violation of the level of 1.1148 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support seen at 1.0009. So, it is important for bulls to defend this level, but only a sustained violation of the short-term trend line resistance would put them back into control (around the level of 1.1300).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1456
WR2 - 1.1397
WR1 - 1.1266
Weekly Pivot - 1.1215
WS1 - 1.1074
WS2 - 1.1031
WS3 - 1.0903

Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro grew by 48 points on Tuesday, almost consolidating itself above the target level of 1.1265 after a reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line from the zero border line dividing the decline zone from the oscillator growth zone, indicating the prospect of a market trend. The next target of 1.1385 is formally open, but it may not be achieved, which can be seen when considering the situation on a smaller timeframe.

Marlin's signal line went beyond the upper boundary of its own channel on the H4, but soon returned to it. This is already a sign of the falsity of the past price spike. And here two scenarios are possible: a slower growth of the euro in the range of 1.1353/85 with a divergence forming according to Marlin, and a reversal of the euro down without reaching 1.1353 (the June 16 high), practically from current levels. The first signal for this is the price drift under the MACD line (1.1295).

Thus, it is late and unreliable to buy the euro, and early to sell. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25, 2020

EUR/JPY is in a minor correction from 121.10 preparing for a new impulsive rally higher towards the key-resistance at 122.12. A break above here will confirm that wave 2 has been completed. It is likely to test 119.41 and wave 3 is in motion for an ultimate break above the peak at 124.43.

In the short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 120.75 to confirm this minor correction is completed and the rally to 122.12 is unfolding.

R3: 122.12
R2: 121.58
R1: 121.23
Pivot: 120.75
S1: 120.19
S2: 119.88
S3: 119.60

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 119.95 and we have our stop placed at 119.35.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on June 26, 2020

The main direction of the USD / CAD pair is upward, so buy positions are currently the most profitable in the medium term. The nearest resistance is the monthly control zone in June, the lower border of which is located at the highs of last week. This increases the likelihood of a stunt in the coming days.

The next target area is the WCZ 1/2 1.3783-1.3767, so part of the positions may be left in the hopes of its test. However, a fall and continued formation of the accumulation zone will occur, if an "absorption" pattern forms today in the daily chart. The closing of weekly trades will be the new starting point for both upward and downward patterns.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 29, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:
Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have attracted a lot of interest from institutional investors. Encryption has become quite popular due to more rules on the digital asset market. However, since most economies work with digital resources, there has also been pressure to strengthen regulations so that cryptocurrencies do not become a safe haven for money laundering and other illegal activities. Recent AML regulations and FAFT guidelines aimed to strengthen cryptography regulations.

However, as digital assets are gaining popularity in the world of finance, traditional financial institutions such as banks have now come under the eye of dealing with cryptocurrency users and stock exchanges regarding virtual assets. A recent Ciphertrace report looked at how virtual asset laws can affect banks. The report notes that 57% of these Virtual Asset Providers (VASPs) had weak or porous KYC processes. This is a greater threat because a weak KYC can lead to bad entities being able to launder virtual assets through stock exchanges operating as fiat off-ramps according to the report.

It is not clear, however, whether large banks are willing or willing to cope with exposure to crypto assets and at the same time ensure that there is no illegal activity in space. Although the number of cryptocurrencies has increased significantly over the years, mainstream banks still have reservations about users and cryptographic transactions. In the recent past, Bank of America raised concerns and kept customers from using debit cards to buy cryptocurrency. However, at the beginning of the Fifth Anti-Money Laundering Directive or AMLD5 it was pointed out that banks cannot refuse to provide services to sectors and must analyze cryptocurrencies on a case-by-case basis.

According to data provided by Ciphertrace, almost 74% of Bitcoins transferred in "from exchange to exchange" transactions have been transferred cross-border and pose a significant risk of money laundering. Given this scenario, FATF noted that illegal users of virtual assets (VAs) may, for example, benefit from the global reach and transaction speed that VA provides, as well as from inadequate regulation or supervision of financial activities and VA suppliers in various jurisdictions, resulting in inconsistent legal and regulatory rules of the game in the VA ecosystem.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $8,795, which means the key short-term technical support located at the level of $8,858 had been violated. The bounce has been continued for some time now, but so far it was rather shallow and the price is starting to reverse again. If the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,465
WR2 - $10,072
WR1 - $9,509
Weekly Pivot - $9,126
WS1 - $8,593
WS2 - $8,191
WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 30, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has made another local low at the level of 1.2251 after all the bounces were too shallow to trigger a strong rally. The price is back inside the descending channel and despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative as the RSI indicator hovers below its fifty level. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2361 and 1.2406. The larger time frame trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2667
WR2 - 1.2600
WR1 - 1.2441
Weekly Pivot - 1.2377
WS1 - 1.2213
WS2 - 1.2143
WS3 - 1.1969

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:
Anxiety in the cryptocurrency community is growing every day. No change in Bitcoin prices, trade between $ 9,000 to $ 9,500, for almost two months is currently not perceived as a feature of the strongest cryptocurrency in the world, but rather its relationship with larger financial markets.

Bitcoin, for most of this year, when the pandemic began shifting markets, acted against itself. According to the "uncorrelated" status, the cryptocurrency reached enormous highs when both the stock market and the commodity market collapsed, losing millions. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value in one day in March and increased its supply by 50% in May.

However, now that price and supply have normalized, the unstable asset is stable from the outset, and some cryptocurrency community members suggest that the reason is that it has not yet separated from the stock market.

Bitcoins and the larger cryptocurrency market, despite being called 'decentralized', have often exerted an impact on macroeconomic activities, usually affecting traditional markets. Last year, Bitcoin saw movement in the gold market on various isolated occasions, mainly because of the safe harbor narrative in times of economic or political turmoil.

Now the prices on the stock market offset the negative effects of the slowdown of global economies by a pandemic and the inflow of liquidity from central banks. At this time, Bitcoin is actually moving according to the highest stock index, S & P500. Market data indicate that the 1-month correlation of Bitcoins with S & P500 is the highest in over a year, and is currently estimated at over 42.6%.

Because Bitcoin is "coupled" with S & P500, this presents a different set of short-term fate for cryptocurrency in the future. Given the likelihood of a second package of government assistance in the United States, another injection of freshly minted dollars may again positively affect Bitcoin, as it did in May. Another scenario is the second wave of COVID-19 cases that could cause another liquidation madness.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,129, but there is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of this move, so if the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high. The momentum is still weak and negative, but is getting closer to the level of fifty, which is a neutral level for the momentum indicator. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565, but in a case of an upside breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,249 (technical resistance level).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,465
WR2 - $10,072
WR1 - $9,509
Weekly Pivot - $9,126
WS1 - $8,593
WS2 - $8,191
WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 2, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has made series of Pin Bar candlesticks just above the key short-term support located at the level of 1.1185 and bounced significantly. The bulls are heading north, so any violation of the level of 1.1287 makes the rally towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1347 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the positive market conditions and strong momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1484
WR2 - 1.1410
WR1 - 1.1289
Weekly Pivot - 1.1235
WS1 - 1.1124
WS2 - 1.1056
WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
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