Wave Analysis from InstaForex

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 10, 2020

EUR/USD
In the last three weeks of growth, the euro corrected 38.2% of the fall from February 2018 to February 2020. Today, in the Asian session, the euro's fall is more than 70 points, which shows the clear intention of the price to close the gap on Monday. Next, we are waiting for the testing of the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1200, which coincides with the top on December 13 (marked with a tick).

Fixing the price below this level will direct the price to the support of the MACD line (1.1085). Fixing the price below it will confirm the market's intention to continue selling euros.

As seen on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down sharply. This is a sign of the market's intention to move down. The support for the MACD line at 1.1200 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the higher-scale chart. Accordingly, the level is strong and requires increased care. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

How is coronavirus spreading around the planet? The US, Italy, Spain, China and Iran are at high risk

The Chinese pneumonia virus COVID-2019 has "captured" more than 100 countries around the world. More than 105,000 people are infected, mostly in China. The largest number of infected and deaths is in the "hotbed" of infection - China. Apart from China, Italy has been the most affected at the moment, with more than 6,000 cases of infection. More than 200 people were killed. The entire country is under quarantine. Schools and cinemas have been closed, all sporting events have been canceled, and any events where a large number of people may gather are prohibited. Some regions with the highest number of cases are quarantined. Citizens are not allowed to leave their homes without good reason. According to the current plan, such measures have been taken until April 3. No one knows what will happen after April 3. Everything will depend on whether it is possible to stop the spread of infection in the country. The Italian authorities decided to involve an additional 20,000 doctors and nurses in the fight against the virus. The main thing now is to stop the infection. It is noted that about 600 people are in intensive care, but about 600 have fully recovered. The average age of those who died from the virus is 81 years. It follows that first of all deaths are recorded in the elderly. People with weak, due to age-related reasons, immunity and health. 80% of people who died from the virus had other diseases. Thus, on the example of Italy, we can conclude that the virus is not fatal, but can lead to a fatal outcome if the patient has poor health. Thus, the elderly and people with weak immune systems are primarily at risk.

About 3000 cases of infection have been recorded in the UK, five have died. All of them were elderly people with poor health. All who contacted the dead are isolated, including medical staff. The United States also recorded several hundred cases of the disease (about 700). Most are in the New York State, where a state of emergency has already been declared. Several people died. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo believes mass quarantine is the best way to slow the spread of infection. Washington state has also been one of the most infected. The state recorded about 70 cases of the disease. As in many other countries, those who die from the virus are elderly people. In addition, a large number of patients were recorded in Iran - about 6,000. 145 people died. At the same time, firstly, representatives of the medical sphere believe that the real numbers can be much higher, and secondly, two representatives of the Parliament have already died from the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, panic is brewing in countries with the highest incidence of the disease. Thank God that so far this word only refers to the desire of people to stock up on all necessary products and not to leave the house without unnecessary need. Therefore, a shortage of certain foods may occur. For example, in the UK, Secretary of Health Matt Hancock urged people not to buy more than they needed, assuring that there was enough food for everyone. The minister also assured that he works with supermarkets in the direction of delivering food and necessary goods to the home in case people have to isolate themselves. However, representatives of UK supermarkets argue that the demand for the most necessary food products is "going wild" and cast doubt on the fact that the authorities will be able to keep the situation under control and provide all citizens with food and basic necessities. One of the directors of large supermarket chains even stated that there were no contacts with the government.

Quite unexpectedly, Spain took the lead in the number of cases, where according to the latest data, the number of infected exceeded 1200. According to the Minister of Health of Spain, Salvador Illa, the situation with coronavirus in the country has significantly worsened in recent days. Most infections have been reported in Madrid. Most of the cases are elderly people in nursing homes and employees of these homes. Two weeks quarantine has also been announced in Madrid with the closure of all schools, universities and kindergartens.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for GBP/USD on March 12, 2020

GBP/USD
The Bank of England lowered its key rate from 0.75% to 0.25% on Wednesday. The pound's initial reaction was to fall by 100 points, but then there was an increase of 150 points, and the day was closed with a loss of 65 points. Volatility in the markets has returned, but the overall trend for strengthening the dollar remains, because the situation in the British economy is significantly deteriorating; according to the latest data, GDP for January showed 0.0%, the trade balance deteriorated from -1.4 billion pounds to -3.7 billion, industrial production decreased by 0.1%, production in the construction sector showed -0.8% in January.

On the daily scale chart, the surge in growth was stopped by the balance line (red indicator line), meaning that volatility remained within the downward trend. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fixed in the decreasing trend zone. Now the target of the pound is the 110.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2647. Overcoming the level opens the second target for the reaction level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2538.

On the H4 chart, the price is fixed under the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin is declining and does not show signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the British pound to fall to the designated goals.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

EURUSD reaches key Fibonacci level and bounces

EURUSD was expected to pull back towards the key Fibonacci levels we have mentioned in our previous analysis. EURUSD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has bounced off of it.

EURUSD has pulled back as a back test of the broken wedge pattern. Price has so far reached the 61.8% level and is bouncing. As we explained in our last Ichimoku cloud analysis, we had a weak sell signal and the first target was the cloud support at 1.1130. Price surpassed our target and reached 1.1060.

So far the back test is successful and supportive of the bullish continuation of the break out. If price pushes back inside the wedge pattern and stays below, then this would be a very bearish sign.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Trader's diary for March 18, 2020, Oil fell amid coronavirus outbreak

Oil, as can be seen on the chart, fell to $ 26 for two main reasons, first, OPEC Price War in Russia. Second, the global crisis due to coronavirus which leads to a drop in oil demand.

EURUSD:
The euro is trying to start a new wave of decline against the dollar.

Euro is in a fundamentally bad condition as Europe has become the center of the coronavirus pandemic, and the strongest economies namely Italy, Germany and France are at their most vulnerable state. Due to this, the economy will suffer serious losses.

From an economic point of view, the euro can fall right down to parity with the dollar.

You can keep sales from 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 19, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, trading in the euro took place in a wide range of about 250 points, this morning the price tested the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart and returned to the red indicator line balance, and opening day occurred under this line, which speaks of the intention of the price to decline further, the market came under the control of the bears. The goal of the decline is the low line of the price channel around 1.0640.

On the four-hour chart, yesterday's convergence on the Marlin oscillator turned out to be broken, although its effect was reflected in more than 80-point growth in the euro. Currently, Marlin is developing in its own downward channel, the lower boundary of which is very, very low.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 20, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro collapsed by 250 points on Thursday, pausing on the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly turned upwards, which may develop into a short-term price correction, as an option, to the February 20 low at the price of 1.0778. The departure of the quote under the price channel line (1.0644) opens the target at 1.0493 - the February 2017 low. Price taking above 1.0778 will extend the correction to 1.0879 - to the October 1, 2019 low.

The Marlin oscillator also reverses upwards on the four-hour chart, remaining within its own descending channel. We are waiting for the correction to be completed as well as for the euro to fall.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2020

EUR/USD
The price was marked on the support line of the embedded price channel in the region of 1.0636 on Thursday, Friday, and today. Finally, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards on the daily chart, which creates the prerequisite for corrective growth to the level of 1.0879 - to a low of October 1, 2019. Overcoming the Friday low of 1.0636 opens the target 1.0493 - the low of February 2017.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator did not form a strong convergence, the signal line has not yet left the zone of negative indicators. The indicator potential may be enough to work out the price of correctional target of 1.0879.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 24, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro showed a timid correction growth on Monday, but this growth has become confident today in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to gain strength. The first goal of the correction is still the 1.0879 level – the October 1, 2019 low, its overcoming opens the second goal of 1.0967 – the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci level intersects with the embedded line of the price channel and, possibly, also the MACD line, which is approaching this point. The level is created strong, so now we expect the euro to fall from it with a high probability.

The Marlin oscillator strengthened the growth on the four-hour chart, the signal line was fixed in the zone of positive values – the first goal of 1.0879 is likely to be taken, and the pair's quote will continue to grow towards the second goal.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 25, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar grew by 145 points on Tuesday, since it worked the correction level of 38.2% of the movement on March 9-19. There are no strong reversal signs, growth to the second correction target by Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095 is possible.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line (blue indicator), which shows the price's intention to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in the lateral direction, which indicates the imminent completion of growth, that is, above 50%, the correction will no longer work.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro added more than 90 points yesterday and reached the first target level of 1.0879. Today, the euro added another 50 points in the Asian session, clearly slowing down on the resistance of the balance line (red indicator ) of the daily price scale. The next growth target is the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 38.2% with the enclosed line of the price channel in the region of 1.0967. At about the same moment, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator can touch the zero line - the boundary with the growth territory, and turn down.

The price touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart, according to Marlin there is no reversal formation, as a result, the price can make a false exit above the MACD line with working out the target on the daily timeframe, after which we wait for the price to turn down with the target at 1.0636.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 27, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro climbed 150 points on Thursday due to rising risk appetite amid massive infusion of dollar liquidity by the Federal Reserve worth 75 billion dollars a day, the stock market will grow more than 6% (S&P 500 6.24%) and at the same time on the tragic data on applications for unemployment benefits – this past week showed the US economy's opinion in antivirus quarantine, the number of applications reached 3.283 million (!) against the forecast of 1.648 million Before the highest record figure was 669,000 in April 2009. The employment forecast for the next week shows economists' expectations for an increase in unemployment in March from 3.5% to 4.0% and a decrease in non-agricultural employment by 420,000 (in September 2008-422,000). In the euro area, the employment situation is even worse than in the US, but the markets in this situation have traditionally reacted sensitively to the very fact of bad data. Unemployment in Germany for March is expected to rise to 5.1%. We are cautious about the growth of the euro. Also, in the market, investors are taking risks with caution – the trading volume was even less than in the previous days of the week.

The correction was already 50% of the fall on March 9-20. The euro's desire to continue its corrective growth to 61.8% will be fraught with even greater difficulties. The Fibonacci level range of 50.0-61.8% contains multiple technical levels that have accumulated since July 2019. The price is currently above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator has broken into the growth zone, but the market just needs to swing down a little and the indicators will again be in negative values. Consolidating the price above the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.1070) will make it possible to continue growth from the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1170. Moving the price under the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which will also mean breaking through the support of the price channel (1.0970), opening a promising goal of 1.0630 along the lower line of the price channel. The intermediate target level of 1.0879 is the low of October 1, 2019.

The price is still in a growing position on the four-hour chart, but the leading indicator Marlin is already turning down. We are waiting for the development of events.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian pound grew by 122 points on Friday, with the upper shadow marking the enclosed line of the price channel. Today in the Asian session there is an intention of the price to move down from the achieved resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also touched the boundary with the growth territory and turns around from it. The purpose of the decline, in the case of a confirmed reversal, becomes the underlying price channel line in the region of 0.5838.

The price exit above Friday's high could extend the aussie's growth to the upper embedded line of the price channel at the intersection with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 0.6410. The MACD line also tends to this point.

On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, a double divergence has formed, the sign of a reversal has strengthened.

Trading recommendations. It is advisable to open sales directly from current levels with consolidating profit in front of the level of 0.5838, S/L 0.6206. If the price goes above 0.6206, we buy with a target in front of the level of 0.6410, S/L 0.6113.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 31, 2020

USD/JPY
Today, the dollar is correcting up against the yen after the previous four-day fall. The closest and most powerful correction resistance is the MACD line on the daily chart on the price of 109.05. Departure of the price to support the price channel line at 107.02 opens the way to the lower channel line to the 102.60 area. Consolidating the price over the MACD line puts the dollar in a very difficult position of uncertainty of freely roaming in the 109.05-111.88 range, which in practice can mean that a certain range could form - a triangle or a flag.

The situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart: the price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. From which, however, shows the intention to leave. Growth may continue to the MACD line at 109.70, which is higher than the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale. Even in this discrepancy, uncertainty and possibility that the price could roam around begins. But all this uncertainty is related only to growth. Leaving the price below the linear support of 107.02 opens the way to a decrease to 102.60.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro launched an attack on the strong technical support of 1.0967, formed by the point of intersection with the line of the descending price channel and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, as can be seen on the daily scale chart. At the same time, the price tried to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line, but it returned to this line by the time the session ended.

Today, it opened under the MACD line and under the balance line (red indicator), which indicates the market's intention to repeat the attack at 1.0967. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves parallel to the boundary with the territory of the bears, waiting for a signal from the price itself.

Marlin is already in the negative trend zone on the four-hour chart, while the price is kept above the balance and MACD lines. An attack pattern is created for the MACD line, that is, to the target level of 1.0875, determined at the low of October 1, 2019.

So, if yesterday's high of 1.1053 is not violated, short positions in the market can be opened with the target of 1.0875. Stop loss above 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 2, 2020

USD/JPY
The second day, the yen is kept in the range of two lines of the price channel (107.02-107.55). Foreign markets, primarily stock indices, are falling, which continues to put pressure on the pair and increases the likelihood of a price drop to the 102.60 target, determined by the price channel on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the declining trend zone. The S&P 500 lost 4.41% yesterday, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 0.86% today in the Asian session.

A convergence has formed on the four-hour chart according to Marlin, but if a price reduction occurs in the next few hours, then a convergence will not form, the growth of the oscillator will take on the character of an indicator discharge before a further decrease.

If the price drops below yesterday's low of 106.93, sales may be opened with a target above 102.60, s/l above 107.85.

Overcoming the price of the upper limit of the range does not lead to opening purchases, since the growth rate is uncertain, it ranges from a little above 107.85 (false puncture) to 109.70 - the MACD line on daily, or even higher - up to 109.80, to the MACD line on H4.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 3, 2020

GBP/USD
The British pound has been moving sideways for five sessions along the 138.2% Fibonacci line. The short-term price drop on March 31 does not break the overall picture. If the price goes out of the range, it will trigger a further increase in the price to the Fibonacci levels of 123.6% and 110.0% - to the prices of 1.2540 and 1.2645, respectively. The resistance of the second target is boosted by the approaching MACD line. The targets of the downward movement are the Fibonacci levels of 161.8% and 200.0% at the price levels of 1.2235 and 1.1935.

We will highlight the signal levels on a smaller scale chart. These are: 1.2484 - March 27 peak and 1.2329 - April 1 low. Accordingly, at the moment of overcoming the price of 1.2484, purchases with goals up to 1.2645 are possible, with overcoming the price of 1.2329, it is advised to open sales with the goal of 1.1935. The intermediate target is 1.2030, which the MACD line is aiming for. If the price reverses from this level, it is advisable to close a short position.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Control zones for USDCAD on 04/06/20

The pair has formed an accumulation zone over the past five days. The boundaries that will hinder further movement are the extremes of the previous week. The upper reference point is the weekly CZ 1.4350-1.4319. Support is the weekly control zones of 1.4037-1.4007. Tests of the specified zones should be perceived as an opportunity to search for deals inside the range.

Work within the framework of the flat involves inputs and outputs at its boundaries so that transactions will be limited to the range.

To exit the flat, you will need to consolidate the pair above one of the weekly control zone positions during the US session. This will allow you to change the trading style to an impulsive one. Closing trades above 1.4350 will allow you to consider medium-term purchases, while a consolidation below 1.4007 will indicate the beginning of a change in the medium-term momentum to a bearish one.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 07/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has hit the technical support at the level of 1.0767 and is trying to bounce higher. The current price action acts as there is a Double Bottom pattern made around the support, so the odds for a rally are quite high. The first obstacle is the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0888, but the oversold market conditions on H4 time frame chart might be helpful to the bulls. If they manage to break through this level, then in the same time, they will break out of the descending channel, and this should accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.0951. On the other hand, a failure to break out will likely result in deepening the move down and new local lows will be made. The next technical support is seen at the bottom of the swing at 1.0654 and 1.0635.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1359
WR2 - 1.1244
WR1 - 1.0981
Weekly Pivot - 1.0872
WS1 - 1.0612
WS2 - 1.0487
WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

 

[InstaForex Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A new PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report showed that fundraising and cryptography mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fell last year, but that doesn't mean the cryptographic market is dying out.

It seems that the cryptographic industry cannot attract investment from institutional investors. The giant of professional PwC services said that the number and value of fundraising as well as mergers and acquisitions showed a sharp decline last year. Cryptography-related mergers and acquisitions dropped by 76% to $ 451 million in 2019, from over $ 1.9 billion in the previous year. The amount of funds raised decreased by 40% to USD 2.24 billion.

Cryptocurrency space could not attract mainstream investment, despite the fact that Bitcoin grew strongly in the second and third quarters of 2019. In July, the price reached a peak of over $ 13,500.

Given the current COVID pandemic, the report's authors argue that the cryptocurrency market will not attract mainstream investment in the near future. High volatility due to coronavirus panic and the economic downturn does not bode well for the space being created. It seems that the cryptographic industry is not resistant to global winds, and the number and value of fundraising and merger transactions can be affected in 2020.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD high located at the level of $175.00 is still an important target for bulls that are still trying to make use of the momentum behind the recent move up and move higher towards the level of $176.78, which is a technical resistance for the price. On the other hand, if the bulls fail here, (there is a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern present on H4 time frame chart), then the next taechnical support is seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. Please notice the increasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $180.45
WR2 - $163.97
WR1 - $154.32
Weekly Pivot - $137.76
WS1 - $127.39
WS2 - $112.43
WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.