Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Gold breaks into battle

Gold quickly returned above the psychologically important level of $1,500 per ounce due to weak statistics on US business activity. The United States feel the pain of trade wars and may well pull the rest of the world into the abyss, as has happened in the past more than once. At the same time, neither the US labor market report nor Jerome Powell's statement about the launch of the asset-purchase program made an impression on the precious metal. Obviously, investors are waiting for something. It is easy to guess that this is news from the negotiating table of Washington and Beijing.

Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve chairman made it clear that the upcoming program for the purchase of short-term securities is not QE, its start can be considered a positive factor for the bulls on XAU/USD. Increasing the activity of a large buyer is a good argument in favor of rising prices and falling profitability. Non-interest-bearing gold is not able to compete with bonds if rates on them rise. If they, on the contrary, decline, the precious metal begins to enjoy increased popularity. This is confirmed by the high demand for products of ETF funds. Their stocks have been increasing for 17 consecutive days, which is the longest winning streak since 2009. The total size of the indicator is only 35 tons below the record high that took place in 2012.

Gold ETF Stock Dynamics

The strong growth in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds and the stability of gold against a strong dollar allow Citigroup to adhere to its bullish forecast for XAU/USD. The company believes that the precious metal will grow to $1,700 per ounce within 6-12 months. But on the side of its fans plays and increased activity of central banks! Thus, the People's Bank of China has been building up gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. During this period, it acquired 99.8 tons. As a result, stocks rose to 62.64 million ounces. According to the World Gold Council, 14 regulators from various countries continue to diversify their reserves in favor of precious metals in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. In 2018, central banks from around the world bought $27 billion worth of gold, a record high.

The dynamics of gold reserves in China

While central banks and ETF fans are buying gold, speculators prefer to exit. In the week of October 1, their net longs fell to their lowest level since late July. It's not necessary to be frightened by it. Financial managers quite logically take profits on the eve of an important event - trade negotiations between the US and China. Most likely, their impact on financial markets will be much greater than the publication of the minutes of the September meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Technically, the "Splash and Shelf" pattern takes place on the daily gold chart. Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the consolidation range of $1490-1520 will launch another correctional wave in the direction of $1440-1445 per ounce. In contrast, a successful assault on the resistance at $1520 will strengthen the risks of restoring the "bullish" trend and continuing the rally in the direction of the target at 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
GBP/USD continues to grow, despite weak data from the UK

The continued sale of the dollar helped maintain the positive dynamics of the pound, but otherwise the prospects for the British currency are not very good. The UK economy fell by 0.1% in August against the expected stable value. Indicators of manufacturing and industrial production also fell short of forecasts. While the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend, although it has slightly deviated from recent highs in response to weak economic data. Demonstrating the miracles of resilience in the 1.2200 mark for the third consecutive session, the pair was able to restore positive movement, however, only amid continued active sales of the dollar.

In principle, weaker than expected macroeconomic data in the UK could not have a significant impact. Nevertheless, the positive impulse did not receive a new charge, while the pair confidently holds the blow and tries to gain a foothold at a new height, despite the fact that the UK monthly GDP report showed that the economy unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August. In addition to this, UK manufacturing and manufacturing declined more than expected in August, although this drop was partially offset by a lower-than-expected trade deficit. Now it will be interesting to see if the pair can benefit from the positive movement or fail again at higher levels amid continuing uncertainty surrounding Britain's exit from the European Union.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The EU summit, Brexit, inflation in the European Union

It is safe to say that we can call the new week, the"Week of Great Britain." Most of the macroeconomic reports planned for the week will concern the GBP/USD pair. Most of the reports regarding the GBP/USD pair will come from the UK. In addition to economic data, it will be decided whether a new Brexit date will be postponed, whether Boris Johnson and the European government will be able to agree on a "deal" and whether the British Parliament will block a new deal if, by some miracle, Brussels and London succeed to reach consensus on all contentious issues in five days? Thus, the EUR/USD pair may feel relatively calm, just as it did the previous week, but the British pound is likely to break volatility records and very often change its direction if the news comes mixed. But consider all the data in more detail.

As we said, most statistics come from the UK. On Tuesday, this will be data on unemployment and changes in average wages for August, on Wednesday - the consumer price index for September, on Thursday - retail sales and the European Union summit on Brexit starts. In addition, the United States will receive information on retail sales for September (Wednesday). However, despite the importance of future reports, we believe that the main attention of traders will be focused on Brexit, on the EU summit and on any information from Boris Johnson, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron. It is these leaders who most often speak out about the promotion of the Brexit negotiation process and have the greatest influence on it. Regarding the chances of fulfilling one or another Brexit option, we recommend that traders not try to guess the future. Brexit has repeatedly shown to all market participants that trying to predict how everything will end is an ungrateful affair. The growth of the pound was often associated with rumors and unfounded market expectations, which each time gave way to a stronger fall in the British currency. That is why the movement of the pound/dollar pair this week may well be illogical and consistent with the nature of the incoming news, and all macroeconomic reports can be completely ignored. Thus, the main principle will be the "principle of caution" when trading GBP/USD in the new week.

As for the EUR/USD pair, here from macroeconomic events we can note the report on the change in industrial production in August on Monday, the inflation report for September on Wednesday. The greatest interest, of course, will be caused by the consumer price index, which in recent months has fallen to absolute lows. A value below 1.0% will no longer be considered just low, but critical. And then it can be expected from the ECB and a new reduction in key rates, the quantitative stimulus program in the first months of its operation is unlikely to be changed, but in the future it can be expanded. And for the euro, these are all potential bearish factors. We still believe that in the confrontation with the dollar, a single European trump card is very small. And at the moment, we consider the main factor behind the growth of the euro a banal technical need to be adjusted from time to time. There is no positive news from the EU. Recently, everything is not good in the United States too, but America's economy is still stronger, macroeconomic indicators are higher, monetary policy is tougher. It is these factors that continue to play for the dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
USD/CAD - Heading downwards

Greetings, dear traders. This time, I will show you a long-term recommendation on an instrument such as USD / CAD.

What is interesting in this instrument now? First of all, the data on unemployment from Canada came out last Friday. Typically, these reports come out simultaneously with American Non-farm (NFP), but this time, the publication was separate. With this impulse, the Canadian dollar strengthened strongly against the US dollar, completely absorbing the abnormal growth a week earlier. At the moment, this indicates a very strong seller in the market.

Since the plan is long-term, its implementation can take from several days to several weeks. Thus, it makes sense to wait for a rollback and consider selling on smaller TFs.

It's important to understand that a lot of data will be released on Wednesday, such as the base index of retail sales for the American dollar and inflation for the Canadian one. Moreover, regular oil reserves will also affect the Canadian dollar. What is more reasonable here would be to expect the continuation of decline precisely after the release of all these news on Wednesday.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
EUR/USD - through thorns to the stars!

Greetings, dear traders. It is time to remember about EUR/USD, which has successfully fulfilled our previous plans. Following GBP/USD, the European currency is now demonstrating a strong bullish direction. It's easy to guess that all these movements are connected with the next portion of news regarding Brexit. If you omit all the fundamental details and focus on how to make money from it, the answer is simple. To take a neat positions in the purchases with a pullback. At the same time, wherever you try to buy, the extreme point of the scenario cancellation is today's minimum at the quote of 1.0991. Therefore, you can limit losses to this level. It is recommended to holding purchases (at least partially) at the level of 1.1064, since this is an important level for sellers over the past few days.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
GBPUSD: The evening promised to be hot. Michel Barnier was optimistic about the agreement on Brexit, but the main move for the Unionist party. The risk of extending the UK's exit

The British pound continues to storm, and after the morning "stuffing" that the deal could be disrupted due to a number of disagreements, the pound resumed its growth on statements from representatives of the EU and the UK. As it became known, according to representatives of the parties, negotiations between the UK and the EU are coming to an end, but the key problems have not yet been resolved. On Wednesday afternoon, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is due to meet with diplomatic representatives of the bloc countries. However, the meeting has been postponed to a later time.

This was done so that the British prime minister could manage to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Union Party, since it is precisely its leaders who are still threatening to disrupt Downing Street's plans. Let me remind you that the deal will include the establishment of a regulatory and customs border for the Irish Sea.

Barnier's meeting with European leaders will give an assessment and recommendations on whether to sign an agreement at the EU summit scheduled for late this week or not. European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos has already stated that significant unresolved issues remain in the negotiations on Brexit, noting that Barnier has already submitted his report to the European Commission. In it, the chief negotiator described the negotiations as constructive. Barnier was also optimistic that a deal with Brexit could be reached before the end of this week, but, according to some sources, the report also contains information on the need to extend the UK term for EU membership, which is scheduled for October 31. An extension is necessary even if a deal is reached.

The market completely ignored the data that the inflation rate in the UK remained stable in September this year. Most of the growth was maintained due to higher prices for hotel services and furniture. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased by 1.7% in September compared with the same period last year. In August of this year, the UK CPI was also 1.7%. Let me remind you that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.

Slowing inflation will help the regulator resort to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which is seriously affected by the situation with Brexit and trade conflicts.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, only a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2840 can lead to the continuation of the upward rally to the area of highs at 1.2920 and 1.2980. In case the pound declines on the evening news, which I mentioned above. Support will be provided by levels 1.2680 and 1.2560.

EURUSD

Eurozone data today did not cause major changes in the EURUSD pair. According to a Eurostat statistics agency report, annual inflation in the eurozone slowed again, which is bad news for the European Central Bank, which in September announced the start of a new phase of stimulating the economy. Thus, the CPI Eurozone CPI in September rose by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased and amounted to 14.7 billion euros in August 2019 against 11.9 billion euros in August 2018. However, trade conflicts, for which there are no solutions, continue to negatively affect the indicator.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Bulls will continue to fight for the resistance of 1.1060, consolidation above which can provide risky assets to new buyers. If pressure on the euro returns, and this can happen after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance at 1.1060, then you can still return to long positions from support in the area of 1.1020, but larger long positions are best postponed until the low of 1.0990 is updated.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
GBP/USD. Turns of the British currency: Johnson repeats the path of Theresa May

Passion for Brexit reaches its zenith. In the afternoon, the pound paired with the dollar soared to the borders of the 30th figure (that is, to 5-month highs), responding to a statement by European Commission President Juncker that the deal between London and Brussels is "ready." But literally an hour later, the pair collapsed 200 points down after the first comments by representatives of the British Parliament. The opposition did not skimp on epithets: in particular, Jeremy Corbyn called the draft deal "corrupt", adding that Johnson's dealings were "even worse than Theresa May". However, despite such harsh comments, the market still expects the British prime minister to submit the draft deal to the House of Commons on Saturday.

For the sixth consecutive day, the pound is subject to strong volatility, showing unprecedented price fluctuations, both in the direction of growth and a downward course. The last time such powerful price spurts were observed in October 2018, when the parties were one step away from signing the deal. The pair jumped from the 34th to the 42nd figure in a few weeks. But then the events did not unfold so rapidly, although in general, the situations are of a similar nature.

At that time, Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator from the European Union, was the main newsmaker. Exactly a year ago, he said that the deal could already be concluded during the EU summit, which, like this year, was held on October 17-18. Brussels and London then were able to find a common denominator in many key issues, moreover, within the framework of Theresa May's Chequers plan, which the future Prime Minister Boris Johnson so eagerly criticized. May proposed to solve the Irish question in a different way: she agreed to establish checkpoints on the border and introduce "certain administrative procedures". EU representatives refused to consider other options, and interpreted the proposed conditions as a compromise. As you know, the deputies of the House of Commons categorically rejected the proposed conditions, failing the vote three times.

The Irish question is still a central issue today. On the one hand, Johnson made more significant concessions from the European Union: the customs border will pass through the Irish Sea, and the same customs rules will apply in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the UK. But on the other hand, such concessions did not satisfy the Northern Irish Unionists. After a two-day political bidding, the DUP issued an official statement declining the deal. In their opinion, the proposed agreement "does not meet the long-term interests of Northern Ireland", and in the short term, residents of this region may face a significant increase in prices.

As mentioned above, Labour also criticized Johnson's deal. And not just because of the Irish border. According to Jeremy Corbyn, the economic part of the agreement threatens the food security of Great Britain, and can also lead to "violation of the rights of workers and environmental standards." Also, according to the Labour leader, the deal will be a blow to the British health care system. Representatives of the Scottish National Party (which has 35 members of the British Parliament) have joined Johnson's critics, adding that they will not vote for the deal.

Thus, at the moment it is not clear how the prime minister plans to "push through" the deal through the millstones of Parliament. Without the support of the Youth Democratic Party, the Labour Party and the Scottish nationalists, he will have to rely on the consolidation of Conservative deputies (20 of whom he expelled from the party for indiscipline) and representatives of other political forces.

At the same time, according to information from the British press, Johnson in Parliament may express his readiness to violate the law, obliging him to ask Brussels to postpone Brexit. This information may be the usual "bluff" on the part of the current prime minister, but, given the odiousness of his personality, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

In general, according to most experts, if Johnson fails to agree on a deal in Parliament, he will initiate early parliamentary elections to bring the draft deal back to the new House of Commons.

Thus, Johnson will have a difficult battle in the walls of Parliament. Judging by the dynamics of the pound, traders do not lose hope of agreeing on a deal this Saturday: otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will return first to the middle of the 24th figure, and then (less impulsive) to the levels of annual lows, that is, to the bottom of the 20th figure. If a "miracle" happens and the prime minister finds votes in Parliament, the pound paired with the dollar will fly up to 1.35-1.37, up to the 40th figure, after the deal between London and Brussels is officially agreed. And although these price values look abnormally high, it is worth recalling that on the eve of the 2016 referendum, the GBP/USD pair was trading in the area of 1.43-1.46, and after the announcement of the results, the plebiscite plunged to 1.25-1.27 in a few weeks, followed by a decline to the bottom of 20- x figures. "The return trip to an upward direction" may not be so impulsive, but at the same time, the resolution of many years of intrigue will allow the pair to grow by at least 500-600 points. As the saying goes, The Show Must Go On ...

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Forecast for EUR/USD on October 21, 2019

The euro exceeded the closest target level of 1.1155 at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Friday, probably on the optimism of investors on a new EU deal with the British prime minister about more favorable conditions for themselves than they were before (Theresa May's options). Today, the British Parliament begins to finalize the deal.

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On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the line of the descending price channel, the Marlin oscillator shows a reversal only to insignificant depth, therefore the next target of 1.1215 as the Fibonacci level of 100.0% becomes relevant.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin is expanding deeper, but it has not yet formed a divergence as a reversal formation, which also speaks in favor of the rising scenario. A trend reversal, of course, does not have to be accompanied by divergences, but then the fall of the signal line should be sharp, with the formation of a spike. So, we are waiting for the euro to grow by around 70 points, after which reversal elements may be added to the technical picture.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 
Pound rushes to the clouds

Despite the almost bare economic calendar, all the attention of investors on forex is focused on the British pound. According to Mark Carney, Great Britain marked the beginning of global uncertainty in 2016, which slowed business activity and GDP in most countries of the world. It can put an end to this by voting for a draft dissolution agreement with the EU. Boris Johnson also called for support of the document, arguing that any delay would harm the interests of the United Kingdom, its EU partners and relations between them. However, the British Parliament may have a different opinion.

The sterling has not responded to macro statistics for a long time and is calling for political news. In this regard, an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9% and disappointing inflation statistics (fact +1.7%, forecast + 1.8% YOY) remained almost unnoticed by investors. All their attention has shifted to Brexit. The prime minister of Great Britain managed to find a common language with the EU. Now he needs 320 votes in Parliament to enter, and not get into the story. In fact, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers needs to lure 61 opponents to his side, which does not seem unrealistic.

According to Goldman Sachs, the chance of a disorderly Brexit dropped to 5%. This circumstance makes the correction potential of GBP/USD limited. MUFG expects the pound to find haven in the range of $1.3-1.35 if lawmakers approve the deal. UBS Global Wealth Management also talks about the $1.35 level. TD-Bank believes that the pair is able to rewrite the May high near 1.3185, however, the contract rejected by the Parliament will trigger a wave of correction to 1.264-1.266. Robobank sees an even deeper low at around 1.22.

Pound Forecasts

The fact that the bulls continue to dominate the market was shown by the sterling reaction to the decision of MPs to vote for the proposal to postpone the approval of the deal. As a result, Boris Johnson, in order to obey the law, was forced to write a letter to the EU asking that they prolong the transition period. The prime minister did not sign this document and sent another to Donald Tusk, in which he expressed confidence that Britain would leave the EU on October 31. The opposition party believes that the head of the Cabinet of Ministers behaves childishly and threatens him with court in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

In my opinion, everything goes to the point that the deal will be approved by the British Parliament on the falling flag. The bulls on GBP/USD believe this, pushing the pair to the psychologically important mark of 1.3. The fact that they managed to gain a foothold above 1.29 indicates the seriousness of the intentions of sterling buyers.

Technically, after a clear combination of patterns "Shark" and 5-0, the upward trend of the analyzed pair is directed to the target of 261.8% on the AB = CD model. It is located near 1.309. A necessary condition for maintaining control over the pound by the bulls and continuing the rally is to consolidate GBP/USD quotes above the Pivot level of 1.29.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
GBPUSD and Brexit: Brexit deal may be approved, but its opponents have one more trump card

The pound slightly fell in the morning after reports that the UK government may withdraw its Brexit bill. If the British Parliament votes against the deal today, official London may withdraw the bill he proposed. This will jeopardize the work of Parliament, which will lead to the next election, which may take place before Christmas. Such a situation

In the meantime, discussion of the bill itself has begun, and the debate may last until late at night, which will periodically exert pressure or support to the British pound. However, many lawmakers would prefer to have more time to study the conditions proposed by Johnson, which has been repeatedly stated. But here we are already talking about moving the Brexit date from October 31 to 2020, which clearly does not suit Boris Johnson.

Even if the prime minister succeeds this week in approving the deal in Parliament, and this happens only if the date of the deal on UK withdrawal from the EU is extended, in the future this scenario will allow amendments to the bill that could completely bury the deal.

Johnson now has a much better chance of making a deal than ever, since on the weekend he secured some support from the Laborites and opponents of Brexit in his Tory party. Just a few votes can allow Johnson to win. However, as I noted above, under the scenario, if Johnson's deal is not ratified, Britain will have general elections and even a referendum on the exit and the EU.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the pound only slightly fell against the US dollar, and this did not lead to significant changes. If the deal is approved, it is unlikely that the pound will break above resistance at 1.3040, which will lead to further growth of the trading instrument in the area of highs 1.3170 and 1.3260. If lawmakers are able to resist the government, then the pressure on the pound will increase, and the decline in GBPUSD under the support of 1.2840 will increase the pressure on the pair even more, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a fall to larger lows of 1.2840 and 1.2670.

EURUSD

In the meantime, traders are closely following the news from the British Parliament, the euro is gradually falling against the US dollar.

This is due to expectations that the European Central Bank may resort to an even greater easing of monetary policy. The European Central Bank will hold its last meeting with Mario Draghi as the head this Thursday. It is expected that Draghi will "slam the door" and go for another reduction in deposit rates, or at least make direct allusions to such measures that can be implemented in December. In the case of this approach, it is not entirely correct to expect purchases of risky assets after a decision on Brexit.

From a technical point of view, further upward movement will occur only after the successful Brexit, otherwise the bears have already coped with the priority task and returned the pair to the support level of 1.1130, which gradually increases the pressure on buyers. Negative news will force them to close their long positions, pulling down the euro to the lows of 1.1090 and 1.1050.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Japan Leading, Coincident Index Data Due On Thursday

Japan will on Thursday see final August numbers for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a score of 91.7 for the leading index and 99.3 for the coincident.

Japan also will see preliminary October figures for the manufacturing PMI from Nikkei and the services and composite indexes from Jibun.

In September, the manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.9, while the services index was at 51.5 and the composite came in at 52.8.

Hong Kong will release September data for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth HKD380.78 billion and exports were at HKD352.73 billion for a trade deficit of HKD28.05 billion.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.


News are provided by InstaForex
 
USD / CAD: Sellers in business

Good evening, dear traders. Today, there is a small recommendation on USD / CAD, and the decline of which is now very likely.

The thing is that yesterday's news from Canada caused a great reaction from the market, and in the end, we see that all the news impulses from the buyer were completely absorbed, and this is a harbinger of even a local, but decline.

Therefore, today, I recommend trying to work on the decline of USD / CAD currency pair with a take profit at around 1.3070. Moreover, the maximum point of yesterday's loss will be considered to be the maximum of yesterday's news - the level of 1.3121. If the price updates the maximum, the scenario can be considered completely canceled.

I wish you success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 28

Forecast for October 28: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, the continuation of the development of the downward cycle of October 21 is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1068. In this case, the goal is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1104 Take profit: 1.1117
Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137
Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050
Sell: 1.1037 Take profit: 1.1014

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031
Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140
Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717
Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 18.

Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974
Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999
Sell: 0.9940 Take profit: 0.9931
Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.66, 109.33, 108.90, 108.72, 108.24, 108.02 and 107.67. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.72 - 108.90. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 109.33. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.24 - 108.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.67. This level is a key support for the top. Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.90 Take profit: 109.30
Buy : 109.34 Take profit: 109.65
Sell: 108.24 Take profit: 108.03
Sell: 108.00 Take profit: 107.70

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126
Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6886, 0.6856, 0.6836, 0.6794, 0.6781, 0.6752 and 0.6722. Here, we are following the descending structure of October 22. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 0.6794. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6794 - 0.6781. The breakdown of the level of 0.6780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6752. Price consolidation is near this level, and there is also a high probability of a rollback to the top. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6722. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6836 - 0.6856. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an ascending structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6886.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 22.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6836 Take profit: 0.6854
Buy: 0.6858 Take profit: 0.6886
Sell : 0.6780 Take profit : 0.6752
Sell: 0.6750 Take profit: 0.6724

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and forms the potential for the downward movement of October 21. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34
Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76
Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94
Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and currently forms a potential for the bottom of October 21. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: Take profit:
Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80
Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75
Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
GBP/USD. Early elections in Britain: intrigue persists - Liberal Democrats put forward a counter demand

The European Union granted Great Britain an extension of Brexit. Despite the "traditional" resistance of the French, Brussels agreed to prolong the negotiation process until January 31, 2020. However, the British do not have to wait for the final date: the postponement is flexible, so London can prematurely initiate the completion of the Brexit procedure. But for this, the deputies of the House of Commons need to support the proposed draft deal with the EU. Fulfillment of this condition is the most difficult stage of the negotiation process. That is why the pound almost ignored today's decision of the Europeans. If Paris continued to block the deferral agreement, the GBP/USD pair would accordingly continue the downward movement. But by and large, traders were sure that in the end Brussels would agree on this step, therefore, a positive verdict on this issue provided little support to the pair.

But the issue of holding early elections to the House of Commons excites the minds of traders. After all, the fate of the orderly Brexit is now completely in the hands of the British Parliament, the current composition of which, to put it mildly, is very unfavorable to the current prime minister. So, in the House of Commons there are 650 deputies, 294 of which are Conservatives. A few months ago, there were 315 Tory representatives, but Johnson expelled 21 deputies from the party for "political indiscipline" - they supported the law obliging him to ask Brussels for deferment of Brexit.

In order to overcome the threshold of a simple majority, the prime minister needs another 31 votes (provided that the Conservatives vote "yes"). The Tory's temporary ally is the Democratic Union Party — at the expense of their representatives, the Conservatives had a majority in Parliament. But this is in a "peaceful" time, while now the Unionists are also categorically against the approval of the deal. Other parties represented in the British Parliament - the Scottish National Party, the Greens and the Party of Wales - are long-standing opponents of the Conservatives in general and Boris Johnson in particular, so it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to entice them to his side.

Meanwhile, a snap election in Britain could be called with the support of two-thirds of Parliament (434 MPs). Labour has twice blocked the government's initiative to hold elections, and this time also promised to vote in a similar way. According to the British press, Downing street is also discussing a "plan B": Johnson's supporters initiate a vote of no confidence in the government – after the completion of the two-week period, which is allotted for the formation of a new Cabinet, the Parliament "automatically" dissolves. In this case, Johnson will need a simple majority, but there are risks: for example, during the allotted 14 days, opposition parties can hypothetically unite around another leader, depriving the Conservatives of power.

Another way to early elections is to change the electoral law itself. However, any such bill can get bogged down in parliamentary discussions for a long time. Labour could amend the proposal to Johnson's disadvantage by adjusting the timing or procedure of the election. In addition, the opposition may delay consideration of the bill for a long time by introducing various amendments, for example, on the right to vote for 16-year-olds.

The first battles in the British Parliament on the issue of early elections ended in nothing today. On Monday, Labour again reaffirmed their position - they will not support Johnson's initiative. When the speaker put this issue to a vote, 299 deputies spoke in favor, which is 135 less than the required number.

But the Liberal Democrats announced that they would support early elections, but they did not propose holding them on December 12, but on December 9. At first glance, the difference of three days is not significant, but not in this case. The fact is that on December 9, students of most universities will still be in their educational institutions (and are more likely to take part in the elections). But on December 10-11, the Christmas holidays begin: many students may not wait for the end of the week and will leave for a vacation. Libdems are popular among young people, so this nuance has strategic importance for them. Boris Johnson announced that he would discuss the proposal of Liberal Democrats, after which the parliament would return to this issue again - most likely, on Tuesday.

It is worth noting that a survey conducted from Wednesday to Friday last week showed that Conservative support reached 40%, while Labour remained at the same level - 24%. Compared with the survey the week before last, Tory support grew by 3%, but the result of the Labour Party did not change. Liberal Democrats, in turn, received 15% support in the latest poll, and Nigel Farage's Brexit party received 10%. All this suggests that following the results of early elections, Johnson will be able to form a majority in the House of Commons and, accordingly, agree on a deal with Brussels.

Thus, the first round of the struggle for elections ended to no avail. At the same time, the intrigue in this matter still persists, especially amid the prolongation of the negotiation process until January 31 and the position of Liberal Democrats.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of October 30
Forecast for October 30:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1083 - 1.1068. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the potential target is 1.1173.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137
Buy: 1.1142 Take profit: 1.1170
Sell: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1070
Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050
For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031
Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140
Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717
Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627


For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 18, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974
Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.39, 109.29, 109.13, 108.85, 108.72 and 108.53. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 23. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.13. In this case, the target is 109.29. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.85 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.53. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.29
Buy : 109.40 Take profit: 109.56
Sell: 108.85 Take profit: 108.74
Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.55

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. At the moment, the price forms a small potential of October 29 for the movement in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126
Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6928, 0.6910, 0.6897, 0.6874, 0.6847, 0.6831 and 0.6810. Here, the price registered the local upward structure of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6874. In this case, the target is 0.6897. Price consolidation is in in the range of 0.6897 - 0.6910. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6928. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6847 - 0.6831. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6810.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 28.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6896
Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6928
Sell : 0.6846 Take profit : 0.6831
Sell: 0.6828 Take profit: 0.6810

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the rising structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34
Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76
Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94
Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top. The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80
Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75
Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Is the Canadian dollar a child of fortune? The loonie has a second wind

The Canadian dollar has been on the rise since the beginning of the week. However, experts suggest that the flight of the loonie can be interrupted by changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as a deterioration in economic data. In this situation, the market favors the loonie, analysts emphasize.

The loonie was in the spotlight on Wednesday, October 30. The market is monitoring the further actions of the Bank of Canada, which is ready to hold a meeting on monetary policy. If the regulator keeps the rate at 1.75%, while the Fed reduces it to 1.50% –1.75%, then the Canadian dollar will push its American counterpart. The loonie claims to be the leader, striving to become the most profitable currency in the "Big Ten."

According to analysts, the rise of the Canadian dollar is possible not only in case of maintaining the same rates, but also amid optimistic comments of the regulator regarding the growth of the national economy. At the last meeting, the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged. The regulator focused on strengthening the labor market, increasing wages and the positive state of the economy.

Analysts believe that current data on the Canadian economy will not be so rosy. The regulator should take into account a number of negative factors, such as a slowdown in retail sales, a drop in the consumer price index, a decrease in GDP growth and inflation risks. At the moment, the labor market in Canada remains strong, wage growth is quite stable, however, the weakness of the national economy along with the worsening situation in the United States may lead to a change in Bank of Canada's strategy. In such a situation, the regulator will review the current decision on rates. If this happens, a stable short-term low will form in the USD/CAD pair, analysts said.

The positive against the Canadian dollar is radiating from the options market. According to experts, the three-month risk reversal with a delta of 25% demonstrates the most favorable period for the growth of the loonie to the US dollar. This has not happened since 2009, experts emphasize. Reducing the risk-reversal in the USD/CAD pair for three-month option contracts is a barometer of long-term investor sentiment. Analysts record a bullish trend for the Canadian dollar, noting that over the past 10 years, investors have never been so optimistic about the loonie.

A similar change of mood occurred shortly before the decisions of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy and the Federal Reserve at the key rate. Currently, the loonie has been supported by both a profitable interest rate differential and increased expectations for a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada in November.

On Tuesday, October 29, the USD/CAD pair peaked in the past four weeks. On Wednesday morning, the pair fell by 0.08% to 1.3078-1.3880.


Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair showed an increase of 0.3% to a high since the beginning of October. The pair hit the 1.3098 bar, but is now pulling back to its lows. Yesterday's growth of the pair from an intraday low was caused by an increase in sales, Scotiabank analysts believe. Experts are certain that the pair is normal. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading in the range of 1.3077–1.3078, showing an upward trend.

Analysts agree that the current situation is quite favorable for the loonie. Most of them note excellent prospects for it. The Canadian dollar, which seemed to have opened its second wind, is capable of another leap forward, experts said. They expect a moderate, long rise of the loonie in the short and medium term.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Control zones EURUSD 11/04/19

At the end of last week, the defining resistance was the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1161-1.1153. At the same time, the closing of trading on Friday occurred above this zone. This opens up opportunities for further growth of the pair to weekly control zone 1.1249-1.1233. The euro purchases come to the fore, however, favorable prices are located just below the level of 1.1134.

At the moment, the pair is trading near the maximum of the last month, which increases the possibility of the proposal and the continuation of the formation of the accumulation zone. Work within the accumulation zone will be relevant until the closure of one of the active sessions occurs above the weekly maximum. If this happens, then the growth rate will increase and a weekly test will take one to two days. In the event of a major offer after updating the monthly maximum, the target will be the level of 1.1134, where a new priority will be determined.


Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Pound moved to a tactical retreat

If someone thought that the British pound would return to normal after reducing the chances of a disorderly Brexit to a low, then the beginning of November showed that they are wrong. The leader of the Brexit party, Nigel Faraj, fundamentally disagreeing with the main provisions of the project of Boris Johnson, said he would fight for every seat in the renewed Parliament. This can seriously complicate the position of the Conservatives and increase the risks of the victory of the party of Jeremy Corbyn. Labour promises to nationalize enterprises, raise taxes and hold a second referendum on divorce from the EU. The political landscape in Great Britain remains shaky, which allows Goldman Sachs to recommend that its client close long sterling positions as part of a "tactical retreat".

The dynamics of popularity of the main parties in Britain

Thanks to the almost zero chance of a disorderly Brexit, the pound climbed to second in the list of the best performers of G10 since the beginning of the year. Sterling's two-month volatility has fallen to September lows, however, the intensification of political struggle can lead to an increase in the indicator, which will adversely affect capital flows and the short-term prospects of the British currency.

Pound Volatility Dynamics

The pound practically did not pay attention to the rapid growth of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 48.3 to 49.6 in October. Surveys of purchasing managers were conducted during a period of general euphoria about the fact that a disorderly Brexit was avoided. In addition, the PMI continues to be below the critical mark of 50, indicating a decline in the sector. I do not think that sterling will be very sensitive to the release of data on business activity in the construction and services sectors, but a meeting of the Bank of England can make it worry.

Only one out of the 19 Bloomberg experts predicts that the BoE will lower the repo rate, the rest are confident that it will remain at the same level of 0.75%. At the same time, most experts believe that the central bank will lower forecasts for inflation and GDP and increase estimates of unemployment. This is a hint of monetary expansion, which will increase the risks of a GBP/USD correction. On the whole, it's a rather unexpected turn, given the fact that BoE's previous forecasts were based on the assumption that a disorderly Brexit could be avoided.

Assessment of changes in Bank of England forecasts

If you add seasonal weakness to the growing political risks and potential dovish rhetoric of Mark Carney, then the immediate prospects for sterling can begin to be drawn in gray tones. According to the results of November in 1975-2018, it closed in the red zone in 28 out of 44 cases. Nevertheless, the bullish trend looks stable, so the correction at the end of autumn made it possible to buy a cheaper pound.

Technically, if the bulls on GBP/USD manage to keep the pair quotes above 1.29 and update the October high, then the chances of continuing the rally in the direction of the target by 88.6% according to the Bat pattern will increase. In the opposite case, we are waiting for a correction to 1.276 and 1.272.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Forecast for EUR/USD on November 6, 2019

EUR/USD
The euro closed the day down by 51 points yesterday. Business media point out the reason for the optimistic sentiment among investors regarding the upcoming US and China trade deal and good October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 52.6 to 54.7. But with a broad view of the market, it is clear that investors are far from experiencing the interest in risk that was on Friday after the release of US employment data. The Dow Jones stock index grew just 0.11%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.12%. The general mood for dollar purchases remains, and it is characteristic that the price has not reached the levels at which the massive closing of euro purchases began on October 22 and 24, which we spoke about at the time.

The decline in the euro stopped at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the lows of October 25-29. There may be a respite before the subsequent downward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the negative trend zone. After a respite, we are waiting for prices to fall to the MACD line at around 1.1027. We admit corrective growth to the price channel line near 1.1104.

The situation is completely declining on the four-hour chart: the price is under the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is developing in the territory of the declining trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
Trading idea for the AUD/CAD

Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for the AUD/CAD pair. The decision on the Bank of Australia interest rate - to leave it unchanged until 11/05/2019 - was positively received by the market. And almost all instruments with the Australian dollar worked on a major note. Our recommendations on holding longs on the AUD/USD pair also worked perfectly for this news, and those who followed this trading recommendation closed their positions in positive territory.

However, there was only one instrument with AUD, and the potential of longs on which has not yet been fully exhausted. This is AUD/CAD. We have already given recommendations on this instrument and they all closed in positive territory:

Despite that, the instrument has not yet fulfilled all the goals to the end. I mean the level of 0.91500. And if you want to gain a long position on it, profit can be fixed there. From current prices, the potential will be about 850p for 5zn. But if the instrument rolls back - the potential will be higher. It can be noted that the asset is quite "noisy" and gaining a position, as a rule, is not a problem. The nearest news on it (CAD)- change in employment will be released on Friday at 13:30 UTC+00. It is most likely that the breakdown will take place at this time.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
 
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