Forex News from InstaForex

Australia Building Approvals Sink 0.2% In December

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The total number of building approvals in Australia issued in December was down a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at 14,752.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 5.0 percent following the 10.9 percent jump in November.

On a yearly basis, building approvals advanced 2.7 percent - exceeding expectations for a drop of 1.4 percent following the .8 percent slide in the previous month.

Consents for private sector houses fell 0.1 percent on month and 7.1 percent on year to 8,486 - while consents for private sector dwellings excluding houses eased 0.1 percent on month and surged 19.4 percent on year to 6,087.

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New Zealand Building Permits Surge 9.9% In December

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The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 9.9 percent on month in December, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - coming in at 2,910.

That follows the upwardly revised 8.4 percent drop in November (originally -8.5 percent).

On a yearly basis, building permits spiked 14.0 percent to 37,538.

The annual value of non-residential building work consented was NZ$7.5 billion, up 5.2 percent from the December 2018 year.

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Japan Services PMI Ebbs In January - Jibun Bank

The services sector in Japan continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 51.0.

That's down from 52.1 in December, although it remain further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, business activity growth was at a four-month high, although business confidence fell to a 29-month low.

Demand conditions improved somewhat, and employment rose further.

Also, the bank's composite index came in at 50.1 - down from 51.1 in the previous month.

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Factory Orders

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's factory orders for December. Orders are forecast to climb 0.6 percent on month, reversing a 1.3 percent drop in November.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro rose against the franc, it held steady against the rest of major rivals. The euro was worth 1.1000 against the greenback, 120.90 against the yen, 1.0713 against the franc and 0.8471 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.
 
Japan Leading Index Data Due On Friday

Japan is on Friday scheduled to release preliminary December figures for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The leading index is tipped to show a score of 91.3, up from 90.8 in November. The coincident is called steady at 94.7.

Japan also will see December figures for household spending and labor cash earnings. Household spending is tipped to fall 1.6 percent on year after sliding 2.0 percent in November. Labor cash earnings are called lower by an annual 0.1 percent after easing 0.2 percent a month earlier.

Australia will see January results for the Performance of Service Index from the Australian Industry Group; in December, the index score was 48.7.

Malaysia will release December numbers for industrial and manufacturing production; in November, they were up an annual 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

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Japan Eco Watchers Current Condition Increases; Outlook Falls

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A measure of the public assessment of the Japanese economy improved for the third month in a row in January, survey data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

The current conditions index of the Economy Watchers' Survey, which measures the current situation of the economy, increased to 41.9 in January from 39.7 in December. Economists had forecast a reading of 39.1.

However, the outlook index that signals future activity fell to a four-month low of 41.8 in January from 45.5 in the previous month. Economists had expected a score of 43.8.
 
Australia Home Loan Data Due On Tuesday

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Australia will on Tuesday release December numbers for new home loans, setting the pace for a modest day in Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Loans are expected to rise 1.6 percent on month, slowing from 1.8 percent in November. Investment lending is also seen higher by 1.6 percent on month, down from 2.2 percent in the previous month.

Australia also will see January results for the indexes of business confidence and conditions from NAB; in December, their scores were -2 and +3, respectively.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Tuesday in observance of National Day and will reopen on Wednesday.

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New Zealand January Overall Credit Card Spending Rises 0.3%

The total value of credit card spending in New Zealand added a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

That was in line with expectations following the 0.6 percent decline in December.

Retail credit card spending fell 0.1 percent on month, missing expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 0.8 percent drop in the previous month.

"Retail card spending has slowed over the last couple of months on the back of a very strong November month," retail statistics manager Sue Chapman said. "The industries that fell this month compared with December had falls that were quite small, with values only falling by NZ$11 million or less."

Spending in the core retail industries (which excludes automotive industries) was down 0.2 percent.

The non-retail (excluding services) category was up NZ$37 million (2.1 percent), and the services category fell NZ$0.8 million (0.3 percent) in January 2020.

By industry, the movements were: fuel, up NZ$8.7 million (1.5 percent); durables, up NZ$4.1 million (0.3 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$1.1 million (0.6 percent); apparel, down NZ$1.0 million (0.3 percent); consumables, down NZ$6.9 million (0.3 percent); and hospitality, down NZ$11 million (1.0 percent).

In actual terms, cardholders made 158 million transactions across all industries in January 2020, with an average value of NZ$50 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was NZ$8.0 billion.

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Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.2% In January

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in January, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for a flat reading following the 0.1 percent increase in December.

On a yearly basis, producer prices jumped 1.7 percent - again beating forecasts for 1.5 percent and up sharply from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Export prices were up 0.3 percent on month and down 1.4 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices gained 0.7 percent on month and fell 0.7 percent on year.

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New Zealand Food Prices Rise 0.6% On Month In January

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Food prices in New Zealand were up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on month in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

Unadjusted, food prices gained 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, fruit and vegetable prices rose 3.7 percent (down 0.3 percent after seasonal adjustment); while meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 2.3 percent; grocery food prices rose 2.4 percent (up 1.3 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.9 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices were up 3.56 percent in January.

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Japan GDP Falls 6.3% On Year In Q4

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Japan's gross domestic product was down an annualized 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's preliminary report.

That was well shy of expectations for a decline 3.8 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the three months prior.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP sank 1.6 percent - again missing forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 0.1 percent gain in the third quarter.

Nominal GDP was down 1.2 percent on quarter, missing expectations for a drop of 0.6 percent after gaining 0.6 percent in the previous three months.

The GDP deflator was up 1.3 percent on year in Q4, the Cabinet Office said - exceeding expectations for an increase of 1.1 percent and up from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

Business spending skidded 3.7 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for a decline of 1.6 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the third quarter.

Private consumption sank 2.9 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for a drop of 2.0 percent following the 0.5 percent gain in the previous three months.

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EUR/USD: dollar continues to show strength, but its position does not look so unwaverable

Unlike its main competitor - the US dollar, which showed the best start since 2015, the euro seriously upset its fans. The greenback is favored by factors such as increased demand for defensive assets due to the coronavirus epidemic, strong statistics on the United States and more preferred (compared to peers) rates on the US debt market. The euro is being pulled to the bottom by unresolved issues on Brexit, the deterioration of the political landscape in the EU, disappointing macro statistics on the eurozone and the threat of a trade conflict between Washington and Brussels.

European GDP expanded by a modest 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while the German figure did not show growth at all. Experts recently interviewed by Reuters believe that by 2022, eurozone GDP will increase on average quarterly by 0.2-0.3, and by the end of 2019 it will accelerate by 0.9%. Given that the largest countries in the eurozone - France and Germany - receive about 40% of their income from foreign trade, there is reason to believe that in the near future the economy of the currency bloc may face even greater difficulties amid a slowdown in the growth of Chinese GDP associated with the epidemic coronavirus.

The successors to Angela Merkel as German Chancellor intend to fight for power in the country. The United Kingdom and the EU can not yet find common ground on a trade deal, which increases uncertainty and contributes to the outflow of capital from the EU. The ECB's ultra-soft monetary policy has made it unprofitable for both Europeans and banks to keep funds "at home" because of negative rates in the region.

Last weekend, the US trade mission reported that in March, Washington will increase the duty on aircraft imported from the EU from 10% to 15%. Apparently, these are just flowers. Over the past ten to twelve years, America has had a huge deficit in foreign trade with the EU. According to the head of the White House, Donald Trump, European duties on American goods are too high. Therefore, it is not surprising that the data on European trade balance published last Friday aroused the anger of the owner of the Oval Office. The trade surplus of the eurozone with the United States increased by 11% in 2019, to €152.6 billion. Obviously, after reaching a trade deal with Beijing, the White House intends to use all leverage to conclude an agreement with the EU.

The weakness of the eurozone economy, increased political risks in the region and concerns about a trade war between Washington and Brussels are forcing investors to get rid of the single European currency. The EUR/USD pair sank to its lowest level since April 2017.

Investment banks have already begun to actively reduce forecasts for the main currency pair. In particular, Credit Agricole analysts believe that at the end of 2020 EUR/USD will be trading near 1.13, and not at 1.16, as previously assumed. Danske Bank specialists went even further: they expect to see the euro fall in December not to $1.15, but to $1.08.

However, it should be recognized that the positions of the greenback do not look so unshakable. Data on US retail sales for November – December were revised downward, while industrial production in the country decreased for the fourth time in the last five months. This allowed Goldman Sachs and Barclays to lower forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter from 1.7% to 1.4% and from 1.5% to 1.1%, respectively. Therefore, one should not be surprised that the minutes of the January meetings of the Fed and the ECB will be used by speculators in order to take profit on shorts in EUR/USD. In this regard, the breakthrough of the bulls of resistance at 1.0870 will increase the likelihood of a pullback.

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Japan Data On Tap For Wednesday

Japan is scheduled to release December numbers for core machine orders and January trade data, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Machine orders are expected to fall 8.9 percent on month and 1.3 percent on year after jumping 18.0 percent on month and 5.3 percent on year in November.

Imports are tipped to fall 2.0 percent on year after sinking 4.9 percent in December. Exports are called lower by an annual 7.0 percent after sliding 6.3 percent in the previous month. The trade deficit is pegged at 1,684.8 billion yen following the 152.5 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

Australia will see January results for the Westpac leading index and for skilled vacancies, as well as Q4 numbers for wage prices.

In December, the leading index added 0.1 percent on month and vacancies rose 0.6 percent on month. Wage prices are called steady at 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year.

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Australia January Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.3%

The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.3 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for 5.2 percent and was up from 5.1 percent in December.

The Australian economy added 13.500 jobs last month to 12,995,400 people, again surpassing forecasts for a gain of 10,000 jobs following the gain of 28,900 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment increased by 46,200 to 8,882,200 people and part-time employment decreased by 32,700 to 4,113,300 people.

Unemployment increased by 31,000 to 725,900 people.

The participation rate was 66.1 percent, exceeding expectations for 66.0 percent - which would have been unchanged from the month prior.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 8.1 million hours to 1,781.8 million hours.

The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased by 0.3 pts to 8.6 percent. The monthly underutilization rate increased by 0.5 pts to 13.9 percent.

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Japan Inflation Data On Tap For Friday

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Japan is on Friday scheduled to release January figures for consumer prices, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Overall inflation is expected to gain 0.7 percent on year, slowing from 0.8 percent in December. Core CPI is tipped to gain an annual 0.8 percent, up from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

Japan also will see February readings for the manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank and the services and composite PMIs from Nikkei. In January, the manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.8, while the services PMI was at 51.0 and the composite came in at 50.1.

Japan also will see December data for the all industry activity index, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.3 percent on month - slowing from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Malaysia will see January figures for consumer prices; in December, inflation was up 0.2 percent on month and 1.0 percent on year.

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German Business Confidence Improves In February

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Germany's business confidence improved in February, reports said citing survey data from the ifo institute on Monday.

The business climate index rose to 96.1 in February from 96.0 in the previous month. The score was above the forecast of 95.3.

The assessment of current situation weakened from last month, while expectations improved in February.

The current conditions index came in at 98.9 in February versus consensus of 98.6. At the same time, the expectations index rose to 93.4 compared to economists' forecast of 92.1.
 
Australia Construction Work Data Due On Wednesday

Australia will on Wednesday release Q4 numbers for construction work done, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Construction work is expected to fall 1.0 percent on quarter after losing 0.4 percent in the three months prior.

Japan will provide January figures for supermarket sales; in December, sales were down 3.3 percent on year.

Singapore will see January data for industrial production; in December, industrial production was up 4.1 percent on month and down 0.7 percent on year.

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New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$340 Million In January

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New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$340 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.

That beat expectations for a shortfall of NZ$549 million following the NZ$547 million surplus in December.

Exports climbed an annual 8.8 percent or NZ$382 million in January to NZ$4.73 billion, exceeding forecasts for NZ$4.44 billion after coming in at NZ$5.54 billion a month earlier.

The leading contributor to the rise was exports of meat and edible offal, up NZ$187 million (31 percent) to NZ$800 million. Milk powder, butter, and cheese rose NZ$115 million (7.7 percent) to NZ$1.6 billion.

Exports to China were up NZ$302 million (31 percent) to NZ$1.3 billion, led by a rise in milk powder, butter, and cheese (up NZ$143 million); beef (up NZ$77 million); and logs, wood, and wood articles (up NZ$32 million).

Exports to the United States were up NZ$69 million (16 percent) to NZ$489 million. The rise was led by casein and caseinates (up NZ$23 million) and beef (up NZ$24 million).

Imports were down 4.0 percent on year or NZ$212 million to NZ$5.07 billion versus expectations for NZ$5.00 billion, which would have been roughly unchanged from the previous month.

This fall was led by vehicles, parts, and accessories, down NZ$116 million (17 percent) to NZ$591 million. Fertilizers also fell NZ$51 million (48 percent) to NZ$57 million.

On an annual basis, goods exports rose NZ$3.0 billion (5.2 percent) to NZ$60.3 billion, marking the first time it has reached NZ$60 billion. Goods imports rose NZ$400 million (0.6 percent) to NZ$64.2 billion. The annual trade balance was a deficit of NZ$3.9 billion.

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Australia Private Sector Credit Gains 0.3% In January

Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.3 percent on month in January, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - exceeding forecasts for 0.2 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

On a yearly basis, private sector credit was up 2.5 percent - again topping expectations for 2.4 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

Housing credit was up 0.3 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year, while personal credit lost 0.6 percent on month and 5.0 percent on year and business credit gained 0.5 percent on month and 2.8 percent on year.

Broad money was up 0.4 percent on month and 4.2 percent on year.

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BoJ Chief Vows To Ensure Stability In Financial Markets

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Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday said the bank will ensure stability in the financial markets via asset purchases.

"The Bank of Japan will closely monitor future developments, and will strive to provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through appropriate market operations and asset purchases," he said in a statement.

He noted that global financial and capital markets have been unstable with rising uncertainties about the outlook for economic activity due to the spread of the novel coronavirus.
 
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