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UK GfK Consumer Confidence Remains Stable In November

UK consumer sentiment remained unchanged in November, survey results from the market research group GfK showed Friday.

The consumer sentiment index held steady at -14. The score matched economists' expectations.

"In the face of Brexit and election uncertainty, consumers are clearly in a 'wait-and-see' mode," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said.

"The general election is potentially an opportunity to move us out of the doldrums - but for this to happen there must be a clear result," Staton added. "A hung parliament could be very damaging for consumer confidence and would surely deepen the obvious malaise that we see month after month."

Among sub-indices, the index measuring changes in personal finances over the last twelve months decreased one point to zero. The forecast for personal finances was unchanged at +1 in November.

The measure for the past general economic situation of the country fell one point to -34. Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months gained three points to -34.

The major purchase index dropped one point to zero in November. Likewise, the savings index decreased three points to +18.

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Ireland Manufacturing Sector Deteriorates In November

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Ireland's manufacturing sector contracted in November, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The seasonally adjusted AIB factory Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 49.7 in November from 50.7 in October. However, any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Inflows of total new business increased in November but the rate of expansion eased slightly from the previous month, while export sales declined further.

Employment fell for the first time since September 2016 and stocks of finished goods increased for the sixth month in a row.

Purchasing activity fell in November for the sixth time in the past seven months amid a decline in per-production inventories.

Backlogs decreased further in November, with the rate of backlog depletion quickened from October.

Input price inflation was the sharpest in seven months, while the rate of output charge inflation eased in November.

Sentiment among manufacturers improved to the highest level in five months in November, the survey showed.
 
Australia Rate Decision On Tap For Tuesday

The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low 0.75 percent.

Australia also will see Q3 numbers for current account; in the three months prior, the current account surplus was A$5.9 billion.

Japan will provide November numbers for monetary base; in October, the base was up 3.1 percent on year.

Thailand will release November numbers for consumer and producer prices. In October, overall consumer prices were down 0.16 percent on month and up 0.7 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.04 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices fell 0.4 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

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Hong Kong PMI Continues To Tumble - IHH

Hong Kong's private sector continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from IHH revealed on Wednesday with a 16-year low PMI score of 38.5.

That's down from 39.3 in October and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line that separates expansion from contraction.

The November reading saw the sharpest decline in business activity in survey history, while the fall in new business was the sharpest since 2008. Business confidence remained close to a record low.

Political unrest continued to disrupt the functioning of businesses, according to survey respondents.

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Australia Trade Balance Data Due On Thursday

Australia will on Thursday release October numbers for trade balance and retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The trade balance is expected to show a surplus of A$6.50 billion, down from A$7.180 billion in September. Retail sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in the previous month.

New Zealand will provide Q3 numbers for the volume of all building, with forecasts suggested to show an increase of 1.0 percent on quarter following the 1.5 percent contraction in the three months prior. South Korea will see October results for current account; in September, the surplus was $66.89 billion.

The Philippines will release November numbers for consumer prices and Q3 data for unemployment. In October, inflation was up 0.2 percent on month and 0.8 percent on year, while core CPI was up 2.6 percent on year. The jobless rate in Q2 was 5.4 percent, with a participation rate of 62.1 percent.

Finally, the markets in Thailand are closed on Thursday in observance of late king Bhumibol's birthday and will re-open on Friday.

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Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Most Rivals


The U.S. dollar was mostly subdued against major currencies on Thursday, amid a slew of economic data from across the globe and as traders awaited the outcome of the OPEC meet in Vienna.

Conflicting reports on U.S.-China trade front weighed as well on the U.S. currency.

Data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in October from a revised $51.1 billion in September. Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $48.7 billion from the $52.5 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The lower deficit was due to a 1.7% drop in imports at $254.3 billion. Exports were down 0.2% to $207.1 billion in October.

Another report from the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased in line with economist estimates in the month of October, rising by 0.3% after falling by a revised 0.8% in September.

Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.6% drop originally reported for the previous month.

Orders for durable goods climbed by 0.5% compared to the previously reported 0.6% increase, while orders for non-durable goods came in unchanged.

Data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims slipped to 203,000 in the week ended November 30th, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 215,000.

The dollar index opened at 97.59 and eased to a low of 97.36 a little past noon. It edged up to 97.44 subsequently but dropped to 97.39 later on, losing about 0.28%.

Against the Euro, the dollar was down at $1.1106, retreating from $1.1078.

The Eurozone economy grew as initially estimated in the third quarter, revised data from Eurostat showed. Gross domestic product grew 0.2% from the second quarter, when the economy expanded at the same rate.

On a yearly basis, GDP growth came in at 1.2%, in line with the previous estimate and the second quarter growth.

The pound sterling was stronger by more than 0.4% with a unit of sterling fetching $1.3163, as against $1.3098 earlier in the session.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was stronger at 108.79, compared to previous close of 108.65 yen a dollar.

The loonie was up notably with the dollar-loonie pair at 1.3175. Canada's trade deficit narrowed to C$1.08 billion in October 2019 from an upwardly revised C$ 1.23 billion in September. Economists had expected a trade deficit of C$1.37 billion.

Against the Aussie, the dollar was gaining in strength with the pair trading at 0.6835.

The Swiss franc was up 0.1% against the dollar, with the dollar-franc pair at 0.9875.

Traders were also reacting to news that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has asked the chairmen of the House committees investigating President Donald Trump to proceed with articles of impeachment.

Pelosi accused Trump of abusing his power for his own benefit by withholding military aid from Ukraine in exchange for an announcement of an investigation into his political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

On the trade front, a Wall Street Journal report indicates the U.S. and China are at odds over the size of Chinese agricultural purchases.


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Japan GDP Revised To 1.8% In Q3


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Japan's gross domestic product was bumped all the way up to a seasonally adjusted annualized 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's revision.

That was a sharp upward move from the 0.2 percent gain originally reported last month for Q3.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP was moved up to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent in the preliminary reading.

Nominal GDP was knocked up to 0.6 percent on quarter from 0.3 percent, while the GDP deflator was unrevised at 0.6 percent.
 
Australia House Prices Climb 2.4% In Q3

Residential property prices in Australia were up 2.4 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 1.5 percent following the 0.7 percent decline in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, house prices fell 3.7 percent - again topping forecasts for a decline of 4.6 percent following the 7.4 percent tumble in the three months prior.

House prices were up in Sydney (+3.6 percent), Melbourne (+3.6 percent), Brisbane (+0.7 percent) and Hobart (+1.3 percent), and fell in Perth (-1.2 percent), Adelaide (-0.3 percent), Canberra (-0.5 percent) and Darwin (-1.2 percent) this quarter.

Prices fell in Darwin (-5.4 percent), Sydney (-4.6 percent), Perth (-4.6 percent), Melbourne (-3.5 percent), Brisbane (-2.6 percent), Canberra (-1.4 percent) and Adelaide (-1.0 percent), and rose in Hobart (+2.1 percent) over the last twelve months.

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Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.2% On Month In November

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in November, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 0.1 percent following the 1.1 percent drop in October.

On a yearly basis, producer prices added 0.1 percent - again exceeding expectations for a flat reading following the 0.4 percent decline in the previous month.

Export prices were up 0.2 percent on month and down 5.9 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices rose 0.2 percent on month and tumbled 11.2 percent on year.

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Japan Core Machine Orders Tumble 6.0% In October

The total value of core machine orders in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent on month in October, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 798.8 billion yen.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent following the 2.9 percent decline in September.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders sank 6.1 percent - again missing expectations for a drop of 1.9 percent following the 5.1 percent jump in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 5.2 percent on month in October.

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BoJ Tankan Survey On Tap For Friday

The Bank of Japan will on Friday see Q4 results for its quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The large manufacturers index is expected to see a score of +3, down from +5 in Q3. The outlook is expected to rise to +4 from +2. All industry capex is expected to add 6.0 percent in Q4, slowing from 6.6 percent in the previous three months.

Japan also will see final October figures for industrial production, with the previous reading suggesting a decline of 4.2 percent on month and 7.4 percent on year.

Hong Kong will release Q3 figures for industrial production; in Q2, production was down 0.7 percent on quarter and up 0.4 percent on year.

Malaysia will provide September numbers for unemployment; in August, the jobless rate was 3.3 percent and the participation rate was 68.7 percent.

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China Data On Tap For Monday

China will release a raft of data on Monday, setting the pace for a busy day in Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are November numbers for industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, unemployment and new home prices.

Industrial production is expected to add 5.0 percent on year, up from 4.7 percent in October. Retail sales are tipped to gain an annual 7.6 percent, up from 7.2 percent in the previous month. FAI is called steady at 5.2 percent. The jobless rate in October was 5.1 percent, while home prices rose an annual 0.5 percent.

Japan will see October figures for its tertiary industry index and preliminary December readings for the manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from Nikkei and Jibun Bank.

The tertiary industry index is tipped to slid 3.6 percent on month after rising 1.8 percent in September. The manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.9 in November, while the services index was at 50.3 and the composite was at 49.8.

New Zealand will provide November numbers for its Performance of Services Index; in October, the index score was 55.4.

Indonesia will release November data for imports, exports and trade balance. In October, imports were worth $14.77 billion and exports were at $14.93 billion for a trade surplus of $161.3 million

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Australia Home Loans Rise 2.0% In October

The total number of home loans issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.0 percent on month in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - worth A$18.21 billion.

Loans for owner occupied housing rose 2.2 percent to A$13.11 billion, while investment loans gained 1.4 percent to A$5.10 billion.

On a yearly basis, overall loans gained 0.9 percent, while owner occupied loans jumped 5.7 percent and investment loans dropped 9.7 percent. Personal fixed term loans were up 3.1 percent on month and down 9.4 percent on year to A$1.73 billion.

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Euro Mixed Following German PPI


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After the release of German producer price index at 2.00 am ET Wednesday, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro fell against the pound, it changed little against the rest of major counterparts.

The euro was trading at 1.1138 against the greenback, 121.90 against the yen, 1.0926 against the franc and 0.8490 against the pound around 2:02 am ET.
 
Australia Jobless Rate Falls To 5.2% In November

The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was beneath expectations for 5.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the October reading.

The Australian economy added 39,900 jobs last month to 12,954,400, blowing away expectations for an increase of 15,000 jobs following the loss of 19,000 jobs a month earlier.

Full-time employment increased by 4,200 to 8,837,300 people and part-time employment increased by 35,700 to 4,117,200 people.

The participation rate remained steady at 66.0 percent.

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Dollar Stays Subdued Amid Impeachment News, Mixed Economic Data

The U.S. dollar recovered well after a weak start on Thursday, but swung between gains and losses till the end of the day as traders looked ahead to the crucial GDP data, due on Friday. The economic data released today turned out to be a mixed bag.

The impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump made an impact as well on the currency.

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump on grounds of misusing his powers and obstructing the congressional probe into his dealings with Ukraine.

Donald Trump becomes the third US president to be impeached by the House of Representatives, after the impeachments of Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson.

Trump will now face a Senate trial next month.

Republicans currently hold a 53 to 45 majority in the Senate, with two Democratic-leaning independents, and removing Trump from office would require a two-thirds vote in favor.

Several Senate Republicans have already indicated they will not vote to remove Trump from office even before the Senate holds its trial on the House charges.

In economic news, the Labor Department's data showed initial jobless claims pulled back in the week ended December 14th. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 234,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 252,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 225,000.

A report from the Federal Reserve said Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity was nearly flat in the month of December, with the bank's diffusion index for current general activity tumbling to 0.3 in December from 10.4 in November. Economists had expected the index to dip to 8.0.

With the much bigger than expected decrease, the Philly Fed Index slumped to its lowest reading in six months.

A report released by the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales tumbled by 1.7% to an annual rate of 5.35 million in November after jumping by 1.5% to a revised 5.44 million in October.

Economists had expected existing home sales to dip by 0.4% to a rate of 5.44 million from the 5.46 million originally reported for the previous month.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index was unchanged in November after dipping by 0.2% in both September and October. Economists had expected the index to inch up by 0.1%.

The dollar index, which declined to 97.22 early on in the day, rose to 97.49 by late morning, but retreated to 97.40 later on in the day, turning flat.

Against the Euro, the dollar was at $1.1122 at close, and edged down a bit to $1.1126 subsequently.

The Pound Sterling settled at $1.3010, after trading about $1.3100 earlier in the day.

The Japanese Yen strengthened to around 109.20 a dollar, from a low of 109.60 a dollar, and later eased a bit to 109.30 yen, but still held in positive territory.

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Australia Private Sector Credit Gains 0.1% In November

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Private sector credit in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in November, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Monday.

That was unchanged from the October reading but misses forecasts for an increase of 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, credit rose 2.3 percent - also shy of estimates for 2.4 percent and down from 2.5 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit was up 0.2 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year, while personal credit fell 0.5 percent on month and 4.9 percent on year and business credit rose 0.2 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

Broad money gained 0.3 percent on month and 4.4 percent on year.
 
Turkish Manufacturing Confidence Improves For Third Month

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Turkey's manufacturing confidence improved for a third straight month in December to its strongest level in eight months, while capacity utilization eased slightly, survey data from the central bank showed on Thursday.

The manufacturing confidence index rose to 103.6 from 102 in November. The reading was the highest since April, when the score was 105.5.

A confidence reading above 100 suggests that business leaders remain optimistic regarding the outlook for the economy. Factories were optimistic regarding production, order book levels, and employment over the next three months.

Separate data from the central bank showed that the manufacturing capacity utilization rate eased to 77 percent in December from 77.2 percent in November. In October, the rate was 76.4 percent.


*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 
Japan Retail Sales Rise 4.5% In November

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Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 4.5 percent on month in November, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 5.0 percent following the 14.2 percent plunge in October.

On a yearly basis, retail sales sank 2.1 percent - again missing forecasts for a drop of 1.7 percent following the 7.0 percent slide in the previous month.

Sales from large retailers fell an annual 1.8 percent, beating expectations for a drop of 1.9 percent following the 8.2 percent drop a month earlier.
 
Singapore PMI Improves To 51.0 In December

The private sector in Singapore continued to expand in December, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from HIS Healthcare showed on Monday with a PMI score of 51.0.

That's up from 50.4 in November, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, firmer demand drove output higher for the first time since July - although weakness persisted across international markets as experts fell.

Business confidence slid to a three-year low.

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