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Japan Monetary Base Jumps 3.6% In February

The monetary base in Japan was up 3.6 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 510.631 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.9 percent increase in January.

Banknotes in circulation were up 2.0 percent on year, while coins in circulation gained 2.1 percent.

Current account balances gained 4.0 percent, including a 3.1 percent jump in reserve balances.

The adjusted monetary base surged an annual 12.4 percent to 521.104 trillion yen.


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Australia GDP On Tap For Wednesday

Australia is on Wednesday scheduled to release Q4 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a busy day in Asia-Pacific economic activity. GDP is expected to gain 0.4 percent on quarter and 2.0 percent on year after rising 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.7 percent on year in the previous three months.

Australia also will see February data for the Performance of Construction Index from AiG; in January, the index score was 41.3.

China will see February results for the services and composite indexes from Caixin; in January, their scores were 51.8 and 51.9, respectively.

Japan will see final February numbers for the services and composite indexes from Jibun Bank; their previous scores were 46.7 and 47.0, respectively.

New Zealand will provide January figures for building permits; in December, permits were up 9.9 percent.

Malaysia will provide January data for imports, exports and trade balance. In December, imports were worth 73.82 billion ringgit and exports were at 86.40 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 12.58 billion ringgit.

The Philippines will release February figures for consumer prices; in January, overall inflation was up 0.6 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year, while core CPI gained an annual 3.3 percent.

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Australia Trade Surplus A$5.210 Billion In January

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$5.210 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - down 3.0 percent on month.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of A$4.80 billion following the A$5.223 billion surplus in the previous month.

Exports were down 3.0 percent on month to A$40.122 billion,

Non-monetary gold fell A$735 million (34 percent), non-rural goods fell A$714 million (3 percent) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell A$8 million. Rural goods rose A$236 million (6 percent). Services credits rose A$54 million (1 percent).

Imports sank 3.0 percent on month to A$34.911 billion.

Capital goods fell A$640 million (10 percent), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell A$466 million (4 percent) and consumption goods fell A$19 million. Non-monetary gold rose A$225 million (60 percent). Services debits fell A$101 million (1 percent).

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Japan Household Spending Sinks 3.9% On Year In January

The average of household spending in Japan was down 3.9 percent on year in January, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 287,173 yen.

That was in line with expectations following the 4.8 percent decline in December.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 484,697 yen, up an annual 2.1 percent.

Individually, spending was down for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, communication, education and recreation.

Disposable income was up 2.3 percent and consumption expenditures fell 4.9 percent.

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Japan Has Y612.3 Billion Current Account Surplus

Japan had a current account surplus of 612.3 billion yen in January, the ministry of Finance said on Monday - up 6.6 percent on year.

That was shy of expectations for 623.5 billion yen and up from 524.0 billion yen in December.

The trade balance reflected a deficit of 985.1 billion yen - also missing forecasts for a shortfall of 962.0 billion yen following the 120.7 billion yen surplus in the previous month.

The adjusted current account saw a surplus of 1,626.8 billion yen, shy of forecasts for 1,664.1 billion yen and down from 1,852.0 billion yen a month earlier.

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Japan M2 Money Stock Climbs 3.0% On Year In February

The M2 money stock in Japan was up 3.0 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 1,039.8 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.8 percent increase in January.

The M3 money stock gained an annual 2.5 percent to 1,375.4 trillion yen following the 2.3 percent gain in the previous month. Included in M3, the M1 stock jumped an annual 6.0 percent.

The L money stock climbed 2.7 percent on year to 1,839.2 trillion yen - roughly steady from a month earlier.

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New Zealand February Overall Credit Card Spending Unchanged In February

New Zealand's overall credit card spending was flat on month, seasonally adjusted, in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - just shy of forecasts for 0.1 percent following the 0.3 percent gain in January.

Retail credit card spending gained 0.6 percent on month - beating forecasts for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 0.1 percent drop in the previous month.

Spending in the core retail industries (which excludes the vehicle-related industries) gained 0.8 percent on month.

By industry, the movements were: consumables, up NZ$51 million (2.4 percent); durables, up NZ$12 million (0.8 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$0.6 million (0.3 percent); fuel, down NZ$1.4 million (0.2 percent); apparel, down NZ$1.8 million (0.6 percent); and hospitality, down NZ$8.5 million (0.8 percent).

The total value of electronic card spending, including the two non-retail categories (services and other non-retail), was up by NZ$1.9 million (relatively flat) in February 2020. This follows a 0.2 percent increase in the previous month.

The non-retail (excluding services) category was down NZ$15 million (0.8 percent), and the services category fell NZ$3.4 million (1.1 percent) in February 2020.

Retail spending using electronic cards was NZ$5.7 billion, up 8.6 percent (NZ$452 million) from February 2019.

In actual terms, cardholders made 159 million transactions across all industries in February, with an average value of NZ$49 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was NZ$7.8 billion.

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Japan Producer Prices Sink 0.4% In February

Producer prices in Japan were down 0.4 percent on month in February, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.

That was shy of expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 0.2 percent increase in January.

On a yearly basis, producer prices advanced 0.8 percent - again missing forecasts for a gain of 1.1 percent after climbing 1.7 percent in the previous month.

Export prices gained 0.3 percent on month and fell 2.1 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices added 0.1 percent on month and dropped 1.5 percent on year.

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New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Climbs To 53.2 - BusinessNZ

The manufacturing sector in New Zealand turned to expansion for the first time in three months, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 53.2.

That's up from 49.8 in January, and it moves above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, production, deliveries, finished stocks, employment and new orders all were in expansion territory - although the main focus will be on the coming months and the effect of Covid-19.

"Looking at comments from respondents, there was a noticeable increase in Covid-19 being mentioned, either directly or through the impact on shipping from China," said Catherine Beard, BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing. "Even those who made positive comments tempered it with concerns about the months ahead."

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Italy Industrial Orders Rise For Second Month

Italy's industrial orders rose for the second straight month in January, figures from Istat showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted industrial orders rose 1.2 percent in January, slower than 1.3 percent in December.

Orders from the domestic market rose 3.7 percent and those from the foreign market increase 9.1 percent.

On an annual basis, industrial orders fell 1.8 percent in January, after a 5.7 percent rise in the preceding month.

Data also showed that the industrial sales grew 5.3 percent month-on-month in January, after a 2.8 percent fall in the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent decline.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial sales rose 3.8 percent in January, after a 1.5 percent decrease in the prior month. Economists had expected a 0.9 percent fall.

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RBA Cuts Rates; To Buy Government Bonds

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Reserve Bank of Australia decided to lower its key interest rates further to a record low and also to purchase government bonds, as the spread of covid-19 disrupts economic activity.

At the meeting on Thursday, the Reserve Bank Board headed by Philip Lowe, decided to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.25 percent.

The bank will purchase government bonds in the secondary market and keep the yield on 3-year bonds at around 0.25 percent.

In order to support credit supply to small and medium-sized businesses, the RBA will provide a three-year funding facility to authorized deposit-taking institutions at a fixed rate of 0.25 percent.

Further, exchange settlement balances at the Reserve Bank will be remunerated at 10 basis points, rather than zero.

The bank will also continue its one-month and three-month repo operations in its daily market operations until further notice. In addition, the RBA will conduct longer-term repo operations of six-month maturity or longer at least weekly, as long as market conditions warrant.

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New Zealand Credit Card Spending Falls In February

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New Zealand's credit card spending declined in February after rising in the previous month, figures from Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Friday.

Credit card spending fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in February, after a 1.2 percent increase in January. In December, credit card spending had fallen 0.9 percent.

Domestic billing decrease 0.3 percent monthly to NZ$3.296 billion and overseas billings rose 4.0 percent to NZ$398 million.

On a year-on-year basis, overall credit card spending increased 2.5 percent in November, following a 3.7 percent rise in the previous month.

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New Zealand Ramps Up Stimulus To Combat Covid-19 Impact

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The New Zealand government on Monday announced further support for the economy as the country prepares for the Alert Level 4 in the fight against covid-19.

The central bank has decided to implement NZ$30 billion asset purchase programme as the negative economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak continued to intensify.

The cabinet agreed to remove the cap on the wage subsidy scheme, which will inject a further NZ$4 billion into the economy over the next eleven weeks.

The changes mean the forecast cost of the wage subsidy scheme is being lifted to NZ$9.3 billion Finance Minister Grant Robertson, said. This assumes 50 percent of businesses access the scheme.

The government, central bank and retail banks have agreed in principle to significant temporary support for mortgage holders and a business finance guarantee scheme for those impacted by COVID-19.

The cabinet agreed to freeze all rent increases and to look to extend no-cause terminations to protect people during this difficult time.

"Like the rest of the world, we are facing the potential for devastating impacts from this virus," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, said. "But, through decisive action, and through working together, we have a small window to get ahead of it."

The monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to implement a Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP) of government bonds.

The central bank will buy up to NZ$30 billion of government bonds in the secondary market over the next twelve months.

The bank said it will monitor the effectiveness of the programme and make adjustments and additions if needed.

Last week, the central bank had cut its interest rate by 75 basis points to 0.25 percent.

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Japan Manufacturing Sinks To 44.8 In March - Nikkei

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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Tuesday with a preliminary manufacturing PMI score of 44.8.

That's down from 47.8 in February, and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The services PMI from Jibun Bank was even more troubling as it plummeted all the way down to 32.7 in March from 46.8 in February - largely reflecting the chaos wrought by the global COVID-19 pandemic.

That dragged the composite PMI down to 35.8 from 47.0 a month earlier.

Among the individual components, output, new orders, new export orders, backlogs, stocks of purchases and quantities of purchases all saw stronger rates of decline. Employment fell into contraction after expanding in the previous month.

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Malaysia Inflation Slows In February

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Malaysia's consumer price inflation slowed in February, figures from the Department of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in February, after a 1.6 percent increase in January. Economists had expected a 1.4 percent rise.

Among the main groups, prices for miscellaneous goods and services grew 2.5 percent annually in February. Prices for transport rose 2.4 percent and those of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and communication increased 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices remained unchanged in February.

The core CPI rose 1.3 percent annually in February.

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European Economics Preview: Bank Of England Rate Decision Due

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The interest rate announcement from the Bank of England is due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK retail sales data for February. Economists forecast sales to grow 0.2 percent on month, following a 0.9 percent increase in January.

Also, Germany Gfk consumer confidence survey data is due. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is seen at 7.1 in April versus 9.8 in March.

At 4.00 am ET, the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research is set to issue economic tendency survey data.

Half an hour later, Sweden foreign trade data is due from Statistics Sweden.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to issue economic bulletin and money supply data. Economists forecast euro area M3 growth to remain unchanged at 5.2 percent in February.

At 8.00 am ET, the Bank of England publishes the outcome of the monetary policy meeting. Economists expect the bank to retain its record low interest rate and to expand asset purchase programme to GBP 635 billion from GBP 435 billion.

In the meantime, the Czech National bank announces its monetary policy decision. The two-week repo rate is likely to be lowered to 1.25 percent from 1.75 percent.

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Tokyo Overall Inflation Gains 0.4% On Year In March

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Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in March, the Ministry of Communications and Internal Affairs said on Friday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent and was unchanged from the February reading.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, also advanced an annual 0.4 percent. That was in line with expectations and down from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent and core CPI was unchanged.

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Dollar: no longer a winner, but not yet defeated

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According to analysts, the past week has become a period of test for the greenback. It survived the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis and experts believe that in the future, the greenback will have to fight to regain its rightful place under the financial sun.

Earlier, a positive outlook for the dollar was the fact that many investors ran to it as a defensive asset. However, in this current situation, this outlook is slowly being debunked. The greenback has experienced the worst week in the last 10 years, and experts are sure that the worst is yet to come.

This month, the greenback grew amid active purchases by investors seeking to maintain their capital in the most liquid currency in the world. The fall of the US dollar was promoted by the impressive measures taken by the American monetary authorities. Recall that the White House initiated a $2.2 trillion government spending package to curb the collapse in global markets provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar decisions were made by many European central banks. Thanks to their coordinated efforts to increase the supply of dollars, other currencies were able to stay afloat.

The most important indicator for the American economy as well as for the economy of other countries is the effect of the COVID-19. This was demonstrated by the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States last Friday. The explosive growth of this indicator significantly weakened the greenback, almost instantly turning it from a triumphant currency into a defeated one.

However, experts expect that the macroeconomic report, which is expected this Friday, April 3, will correct the situation a little. It will feature Non-farm payrolls that reflect the state of the US economy during the rampant COVID-19 pandemic. Note that this indicator has always provoked high volatility in the EUR/USD pair, and now it can turn out to be off-scale.

According to preliminary forecasts, almost all components of the non-farm can go into a deep minus. It is expected that the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector will decrease by 80,000, while 120,000 in the private sector, and by 10 thousand in the production sector. Experts expect a sharp decrease in the share of the economically active population and hourly wages. The current situation may be in the hands of the USD bulls, which cannot be said about the bears. Experts said that the latter non-farms can be very disappointing.

Morning of March 30, volatility in the EUR / USD pair remains relatively high, but not unlimited. The classic tandem cruised near the marks of 1.1073–1.1075, trying to get out of the current cycle. In the future, the EUR / USD pair managed to overcome this barrier and reach the levels of 1.1079–1.1080.
 
China Manufacturing PMI 52.0 In March

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The manufacturing sector in China moved back into expansion in March, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.0 - beating forecasts for 45.0.

That's up sharply from 35.7 in February, and it moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, also exceeding expectations for 42.0 and up from 29.6 in the previous month.

The composite PMI posted a score of 53.0, up from 28.9 a month prior.

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Contraction Accelerates For Vietnam Manufacturing Sector

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The manufacturing sector in Vietnam continued to contract in March, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 41.9.

That's down from 49.0 in February and it slips further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, last month saw the sharpest declines in output, new orders and employment in survey history. Business confidence tumbled, while firms scaled back purchasing and inventory holdings.

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