Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Daily analysis of USDX for December 20, 2016

On Monday USDX was supported by the 102.56 level - a strong demand zone across the board which should help to boost buyers in coming days ahead of Christmas. The next key resistance is still placed at the 103.98 level. If the index plunges below the 102.56 mark, it can reach the support area of 101.40, which is below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 103.98 / 104.69
H1 chart's support levels: 102.56 / 101.40

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 103.98, take profit is at 104.69 and stop loss is at 103.26.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 21, 2016

EURUSD.jpg


When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as consumer confidence index and Belgian NBB business climate index. The US will also publish some reports such as crude oil inventories and existing home sales. Therefore, amid the reports EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0439.
Strong Resistance:1.0433.
Original Resistance: 1.0423.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0413.
Target Inner Area: 1.0389.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0365.
Original Support: 1.0355.
Strong Support: 1.0345.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0339.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 22, 2016

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today but the US will reveal such reports as Natural Gas Storage, Personal Income m/m, CB Leading Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, HPI m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m .So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 118.15.
Resistance. 2: 117.92.
Resistance. 1: 117.69.
Support. 1: 117.41.
Support. 2: 117.18.
Support. 3: 116.95.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 27, 2016

GBP/JPY is under pressure.

The pair has been capped by both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index stays below 50.The pair holds below 144.50 and remains capped by a negative trend line. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as 144.50 is not broken above, a break below 143.20 is likely.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 143.20 and the second one at 142.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 144.95 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 145.30. The pivot point lies at 144.50.

Resistance levels: 144.95, 145.30, 145.50
Support levels: 143.20, 142.80, 140.15

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 28, 2016

analytics5863577143407.png


Wave summary:

The failure to break below support at 122.01 and the following break above resistance at 122.78 shifted the count in favor of the running triangle. This triangle consolidation is now complete and wave (v) higher toward 126.54 is now unfolding.

Short-term support is seen at 122.99 and then at 122.63, but we doubt that the later will be tested before the next rally higher to 124.09 and then to 126.54.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop+revers at 122.85 was hit and we are now long EUR from 122.85. Stop will be placed at 122.10 and take profit+revers will be placed at 126.25.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 29, 2016

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Summary of Opinions data and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 117.38.
Resistance. 2: 117.15.
Resistance. 1: 116.92.
Support. 1: 116.64.
Support. 2: 116.41.
Support. 3: 116.10

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 03, 2017

USDX stayed above the demand zone of 101.97 as it is awaiting further momentum in order to establish a clear path in the short term. It seems that the bears are favored in the current scenario because the index is consolidated below the 200 SMA on H1 chart and a breakout below that zone should help to extend the decline towards the 101.40 level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.53 / 103.15
H1 chart's support levels: 101.97 / 101.40

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 102.53, take profit is at 103.15 and stop loss is at 101.92.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 04, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will release some economic data such as FOMC Meeting Minutes and Total Vehicle Sales. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance 3: 118.64.
Resistance 2: 118.41.
Resistance 1: 118.18.
Support 1: 117.89.
Support 3: 117.43.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 05, 2017

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is at 144.10. The pair remains capped by its descending 20-period moving average and remains on the downside. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is below 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 144.10 is not broken above, a break below 143.15 seems likely.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 143.15. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 142.85. The pivot point stands at 144.10. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 144.40 and the second one at 144.95.

Resistance levels: 144.40, 144.95, 145.40
Support levels: 143.15, 142.85, 142.00

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 06, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will release some economic data such as Factory Orders m/m, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance 3: 116.43.
Resistance 2: 116.21.
Resistance 1: 115.98.
Support 1: 115.70.
Support 2: 115.48.
Support 3: 115.25.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 09, 2017

Friday was very volatile for USD-related pairs and in the case of the Sterling, GBP/USD weakened across the board to consolidate below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. The next target to the downside is located around 1.2226, where a demand zone is placed and it could help to bring some bulls force to push higher the pair. If GBP/USD gets back to the previous trend, it should break the resistance level of 1.2306 to reach the area of 1.2385.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2306 / 1.2385
H1 chart's support levels: 1.2226 / 1.2176

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2306, take profit is at 1.2385 and stop loss is at 1.2228.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 10, 2017

On August 18, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

Note that the USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved. This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) allows a bullish movement toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the current bearish pullback toward 1.3300 - 1.3250 (50% Fibonacci Level) should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 1.3170.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 11, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the economic data, too, such as 10-y Bond Auction and Crude Oil Inventories, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0610.
Strong Resistance:1.0603.
Original Resistance: 1.0593.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0583.
Target Inner Area: 1.0558.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0533.
Original Support: 1.0523.
Strong Support: 1.0513.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0506.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 12, 2017

USDCHFM30.png


USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and is consolidated on the downside. The declining 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one, which is negative. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

The U.S. dollar turned to the downside in a volatile session as traders found that Trump offered little clarity on economic stimulus plans during his closely watched news conference. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index surged up to 102.95 before the news conference but reversed course and dived to 101.28, its lowest intraday level since December 14, before settling at 101.78, down 0.2% on day.

As long as 1.0160 is resistance, look for a further drop toward 1.0110 and even 1.0090 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0180, 1.0200, 1.0220
Support levels: 1.0100, 1.0090, 1.0055

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 13, 2017

When the European market opens, there is no Economic Data will be, but the US will release the economic data, such as Federal Budget Balance, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Core Retail Sales m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0660.
Strong Resistance:1.0653.
Original Resistance: 1.0643.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0633.
Target Inner Area: 1.0608.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0583.
Original Support: 1.0573.
Strong Support: 1.0563.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0556.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 16, 2017

USD/JPY is Under pressure. The pair pulled back last Friday, and is now testing its nearest support at 114.00. The risk of a slide below this level remains high, as the relative strength index is badly directed, without showing any reversal signals.

The U.S. dollar showed some signs of rebounding energy upon the release of economic data. However, the upward momentum proved unsustainable. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index finally ended at 101.18 (day-high at 101.67), down 0.2% on day and extending its losing streak to a third session.

In which case, as long as 114.80 holds on the upside, further decline seems to be on the cards toward 113.75 (Jan 12 low).

Recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.75. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 113.40. The pivot point stands at 114.65. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 115.20 and the second one at 115.65.

Resistance levels: 115.20, 156.65, 116.05
Support levels: 113.75, 113.40, 113.00

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 17, 2017

Wave summary:
We continue to look for evidence that the double zig-zag correction from 1.5235 is complete. The first solid evidence, will be a break above minor resistance at 1.5007, while a break above resistance at 1.5193 confirms that the wave iii/ higher toward 1.5837 and above longer term has taken over. That said, we have to acknowledge the risk of a third zig-zag unfolding. If this is the case, then more downside toward 1.4778 could be seen before the next impulsive rally finally takes over.

R3: 1.5193
R2: 1.5050
R1: 1.5007
Pivot: 1.4895
S1: 1.4841
S2: 1.4810
S3: 1.4778

Trading recommendation:
We will only buy a break above 1.500

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 18, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data, too, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m and the Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0762.
Strong Resistance:1.0756.
Original Resistance: 1.0745.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0734.
Target Inner Area: 1.0709.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0684.
Original Support: 1.0673.
Strong Support: 1.0662.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0656.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 19, 2017

In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits and the Fed Chair Yellen Speaks. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 115.28.
Resistance. 2: 115.05.
Resistance. 1: 114.83.
Support. 1: 114.55.
Support. 2: 114.32.
Support. 3: 114.10.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 20, 2017

EURUSD.jpg


When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German PPI m/m. Today the US will not release any economic reports. So against this background, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0706.
Strong Resistance:1.0699.
Original Resistance: 1.0689.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0679.
Target Inner Area: 1.0654.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0629.
Original Support: 1.0619.
Strong Support: 1.0609. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0602.

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