Wave Analysis from InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude · Mar 30, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2022

The Australian dollar's decline, which had begun yesterday, stopped and turned into the US dollar's growth, which weakened by 0.72%. The Australian dollar managed to return above the target level of 0.7500 in one day and is now ready to rise to the next bullish target of 0.7600. The aussie's readiness is still not complete, as the Marlin Oscillator has not turned up yet. Perhaps the upward price movement will be in the form of a saw.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled above the target level of 0.7500 and is developing above the balance indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is close to the transition to the positive area. We are waiting for the price at the level of 0.7600.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Mar 31, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: ETHUSD, Bullish Pressure | 31st March 2022

On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 3589 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our 1st support at 3240 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 3034 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Trading Recommendation
Entry: 3240
Reason for Entry:
Horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 3589
Reason for Take Profit:Horizontal pullback resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension
Stop Loss: 3034
Reason for Stop Loss:Horizontal pullback support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 1, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on April 1, 2022

So, yesterday's daily candle of the USD/JPY pair formed a small body with medium-length shadows, and this morning there is an increased growth of the pair. Taking into account the large black candle of the environment, we see the formation of a reversal combination. Our scenario involves the formation of a triangle here. If the triangle is horizontal, then this will be a sign of further price growth, if the triangle is formed upwards, and for this it has a target level of 125.85, then this will be a reversal pattern in the medium and long-term decline. At the moment, we are waiting for growth to the area of the upper hypothetical line of the triangle at 124.60.

On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to go above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the price has formed a convergence with the oscillator. The exit of the price above the MACD line (122.80), most likely, will coincide with the transition of Marlin to the positive area and this will be a signal for the continuation of the price growth.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 4, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBPUSD Bullish Bounce | 4th Apr 2022

On the H4, prices are abiding by an ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance 1.31152 at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our ascending trendline support. Breaking our ascending trendline support will find prices dipping towards our 1st support at 1.30558 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below our Ichimoku cloud resistance. Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 2nd resistance at 1.31622 in line with our graphical swing high.

Trading Recommendation
Entry: 1.31152
Reason for Entry:
23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 1.30558
Reason for Take Profit:61.8% FIbonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 1.31622
Reason for Stop Loss:
Graphical swing high

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 5, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 5, 2022

The British pound begins to form a pennant-shaped formation on the daily scale. From the ideological point of view, this is quite consistent with investors' expectations for the Bank of England meeting, which will take place exactly one month later, and the European Central Bank, which will take place in nine days. On the technical side, after the formation of the lower line of the pennant, the price now tends to rise, to the upper line of the supposed pennant, to the target level of 1.3210. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator fixed in the positive area.

On the H4 chart, the price has not yet consolidated above the target level of 1.3119, and the signal line of the oscillator, although it is above the zero line, is still moving sideways. Today's trading day may be similar to yesterday's.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 6, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2022

The euro is falling evenly - yesterday's fall was about the same as on Monday. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator settled below the zero line. The trend is completely down, the target 1.0820 is open. Going under the level will be an early sign that we will see the euro at parity with the dollar. Consolidating below 1.0636 (March 2020 low) will confirm this signal.

The decline continues for all indicators on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator slowed down a bit, but it is not in the oversold zone yet. We are waiting for further development of the downward movement.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 7, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2022

The British pound has settled under the target level of 1.3119 on a daily scale, now it acts as a resistance for it. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along its own zero line. The prevailing trend is downward. We are waiting for its qualitative breakdown with the development of the target level of 1.2900.

The trend remains bearish on the lower working chart of H4. The price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator has moved below the zero line and is already moving sideways in the negative area. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 1.2900. This is the December 2019 low.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 8, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2022

The euro continues to decline, although it has slowed down. It has a technically and ideologically important support at 1.0820 ahead of it, overcoming which opens the target of 1.0636 – the low of March 2020, therefore, in order to overcome such an important support, you need to gather your strength. Today is Friday, no important news is planned, and investors, if they have planned a breakthrough, will organize it not today. The Marlin Oscillator of a daily scale is moving exactly horizontally, which hints at the preliminary closing of short positions of players before an assault with fresh forces.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is growing in the downtrend zone, this can be interpreted in two ways: the oscillator rarefaction before further decline into the oversold area and a slight convergence with the price, indicating the expected closing of positions.

Thus, two scenarios of one action appear: price correction from current levels (correction limit at 1.0945) and a subsequent powerful attack on the target level of 1.0820, and support at 1.0820 working off with a subsequent bounce from the level and only then going under it with a further decline.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 11, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on April 11, 2022

On Friday, the Australian dollar marked the lower shadow of the daily candle in the target range of 0.7415/30, then went back out of it. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has gone into the negative area, so we do not expect a strong correction from the range reached. Until the US dollar index strengthens again, the aussie is likely to move sideways. The price going under the lower border of the range opens a new target 0.7315 (high on January 13).

On the four-hour chart, the price is in no hurry to go into a correction. The Marlin Oscillator is also in no hurry to move either down or turn up. This circumstance confirms the aussie's reluctance to develop corrective growth.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 12, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Silver for April 12, 2022

Silver turned higher as the cycle bottomed. We are looking for a break above minor resistance at 25.85 for a continuation higher towards 30.00 and ultimately a rally towards the all-time high at 50.00.

Support is now seen at 24.59 that ideally will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above minor resistance at 25.85. Only a break below support at 24.13 will shift the tide towards the downside and a decline towards 23.38, but the odds for this outcome are very low.

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JacksonZWDed · Apr 12, 2022

InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 13, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for April 13, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD prints yet another higher low around 1.0811 mark during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The single currency pair remained shy by just five pips from testing the previous swing low at 1.0806. It is seen to be trading around 1.0833 level at this point in writing and a push through 1.0910 could confirm a bottom in place.

EURUSD has shown quite resilience as bulls defended 1.0806 swing low. If a potential bottom is in place at 1.0811, price would continue higher and break above 1.0910-20 initial resistance. On the flip side, it 1.0806 breaks down, bears might print a shallow low before bulls are back in control. Both scenarios present a bullish picture over medium term.

EURUSD is already producing a bullish divergence on the daily RSI as prices remained just five pips away from printing fresh lows below 1.0806 mark. The divergence is not shown here but it is a potential trend reversal indicator going forward. It would be interesting to see a break above 1.0910-20 mark as the day progresses.

Trading plan:
Potential rally towards 1.1500 against 1.0700
Good luck!

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 14, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2022

Yesterday we overestimated the possibilities of the dollar, the breakdown of support at 1.0820 did not happen. It may seem that investors took no action ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting and decided to keep the euro in the range of 1.0820-1.0945, but in fact there was a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar, which received a boost from sharply falling US government bond yields on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yields on 2-year securities have been declining since Monday, during this time it fell from 2.54% to 2.27%, and yesterday the dollar slightly correlated. By this action, the market makes it clear that the euro exchange rate in the current situation is more dependent on the policy of the Federal Reserve than on the policy of the ECB. And if the market's expectations regarding the June ECB rate hike justifies, the euro definitely has no reason to rise. In the best case, the price will linger a little more in the range of 1.0820-1.0945. This is our main scenario.

If there are problems with the main scenario, the price settles above 1.0945, then the euro is likely to rise to 1.1085 - to the Fibonacci channel line (daily), in the area of the MACD indicator line (blue). At the same time, price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator will finally form. We see no reason for such activity of speculators 2.5 weeks before the Fed rate hike by 0.50 points.

Convergence is also forming on the four-hour chart; it can be taken as already formed, since the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. The convergence potential is enough to bring the price to the resistance area of the price level 1.0945 and the MACD line.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 15, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2022

Yesterday's European Central Bank meeting turned out to be softer than expected. Despite rising inflation, the central bank gave a hint of a rate hike only in the fourth quarter, as the overall economic situation in Europe is not in the best way. Likewise, the anti-COVID agenda remains alarming. The euro closed the day down 54 points. This morning the price is trying again to go under the support level of 1.0820, obviously consolidating below it. The Marlin Oscillator slightly turned down. If the price settles below 1.0820, we are waiting for the price in the target range of 1.0636/70.

On the four-hour chart, the price reversed down exactly from the resistance of the MACD indicator line. This suggests that the short-term exit of the price above the red balance line was false, one might say, erroneous for a group of bullish players, since the price was developing all the time in a medium-term downward trend - below the MACD line. At the moment, the price has already settled below the balance line and may soon settle below the level of 1.0820. The Marlin Oscillator returned to the territory of the downward trend.

Today the markets of Europe and the US are closed for the Catholic Easter, on Monday Europe continues to rest, while the US has already gone back to work. We are waiting for the main events on Monday-Tuesday.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 18, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: ETHUSD, Bullish Bounce | 18th April 2022

On the H4, we see the price is near pivot level. Price can potentially bounce from 1st support level of 2955.24 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards the 1st resistance level of 3083.99 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break through key support structure and head for our 2nd support level of 2835.69 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.

Trading Recommendation
Entry: 2955.24
Reason for Entry:
61.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take Profit: 3083.99
Reason for Take Profit:78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop Loss: 2835.69
Reason for Stop Loss:
78.6% Fibonacci projection.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 19, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 19, 2022

As GBP/JPY has continue to make new highs for the rally since the 123.99 low we have reviewed our count. It's clearly possible to count a complete five wave rally from 123.99 to the present high at 166.60. What It also clear is that wave 4 is a triangle, which is normally a warning that the next impulsive rally will be the last of the total five wave sequence since the 123.99 low. That of course also means that the very best of the impulsive rally now is behind us and it's just a matter of time before GBP/JPY peaks and a larger corrective decline to 156.90 is seen.

We expect GBP/JPY to see its final peak at 168.26 where wave 5 will be 61.8% the length of wave 1 through wave 3.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 20, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for Ethereum for April 20, 2022

Technical outlook:
Ethereum managed to rally through $3,130 highs on Wednesday before finding resistance. The crypto has plled back since then and is seen to be trading close to $3,095 levels at this point in writing. Intraday corrective drop remains possible through $2,980 mark, before the rally resumes higher toward $3,800-4,000 zone.

Ethereum has been in a counter trend rally since $2,140 lows,and is looking to progress toward $3,800 at least before turning lower again. Also note that $3,800 is close to fibonacci 0.618 retracement of earlier drop between $4,850 and $2,140 levels respectively. Further, the channel resistance is also passing through $3,800-4,000 zone.

High probability remains for a turn lower if prices manage to reach the above projection, as resistance would be strong. Bears will remain poised to be back in control from $3,800-4,000 mark and drag prices lower below $2,140 levels. Watch out for short term intraday support coming through $2,980 mark today.

Trading plan:
Potential rally through $3,800-4,000 against $2,100.
Good luck!

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 21, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for April 21, 2022

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair had extended the bounce from the last week low seen at 1.0757, but so far the bounce is still rather shallow as the bearish/neutral market border located at 1.0887 has not been tested yet (the local high was made at the level of 1.0874 so far)If the last week low is clearly violated, then the bears might push the price towards the technical support seen at 1.0654 (the key long term technical support for bulls) despite the extremely oversold market conditions. The down trend continues lower and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal yet. The nearest technical resistance is located at 1.0887 and 1.0899 (bearish/neutral market border).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1073
WR2 - 1.1001
WR1 - 1.0893
Weekly Pivot - 1.823
WS1 - 1.0717
WS2 - 1.0648
WS3 - 1.0538

Trading Outlook:
The market is still in control by bears that pushed the price way below the level of 1.1185, so a breakout above this level is a must for bulls for a trend reversal. The next long-term technical support is located at 1.0639. The up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.1494 (high from 06.02.2022) only if bullish cycle scenario is confirmed by breakout above the level of 1.1186 and 1.1245, otherwise the bears will push the price lower towards the next long-term target at the level of 1.0639 or below.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 22, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 22, 2022

The euro's growth from yesterday was more than 80 points, but it could not do anything with the general strengthening of the dollar, with the expectation of an even greater discrepancy in the rates of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which eventually led the single currency to close the day with a black candle of 12 points. Today's report on the eurozone PMI indices for April are expected to weaken. The forecast for manufacturing PMI is 54.7 against 56.5 in March, expectations for non-manufacturing PMI are 55.0 against 55.6 a month earlier. We are waiting for a further decline to the target range of 1.0636/70. The Marlin Oscillator has not yet reversed from its zero line on the daily chart, which could slow down a potential price decline.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the price and the readings of the indicators returned to the positions from yesterday morning. The only difference is that the MACD line slightly decreased, and now, for a reliable signal to decrease, the price should go under lower support, under the level of 1.0788. The bears' pressure on the price is not light.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Apr 25, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 25, 2022

GBP/JPY has see a nice drop from the 168.43 peak. We where looking for a peak at 168.26 so it was close to a bulls-eye regarding picking the top. We are now looking for a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase unfolding towards at least 158.25 and possibly closer to 150.10.

We have seen a nice five wave rally from 123.99 to 168.43 to complete the impulsive cycle and we are now looking for a corrective cycle for the coming month.

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Wave Analysis from InstaForex

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