Wave Analysis from InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude · Jan 26, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Gold for January 26, 2022

Gold is testing the symmetrical triangle resistance-line and a break above here and more importantly a break above 1,877 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 towards 2,700 is in motion. As long as the triangle resistance-line is able to cap the upside we could see gold move a little lower to 1,812, but the downside should be limited and it should just be a matter of time before resistance at 1,877 is conquered and the rally towards 2,700 is in motion.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Jan 27, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 27, 2022

So, at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve made it clear that the conditions for a rate hike are ripe, that rates can rise without a negative impact on the labor market, and the first increase will be in March. As a result of the day, the dollar index strengthened by 0.51%, the euro lost 60 points. The yield on 5-year US government bonds increased from 1.564% to 1.678%.

On the whole, the Fed's decision, like any thesis of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, was expected. But the fall of the euro shows that the markets have not yet taken into account the beginning of the US rate hike cycle, as is sometimes expressed in the media. And, perhaps, this is the main idea that has matured as a result of yesterday.

The price settled under both indicator lines on the daily chart – under the balance line and the MACD line. The price is approaching the first bearish target (1.1170) as planned. Consolidation below the level will open the second target (1.1050).

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InstaForex Gertrude · Jan 28, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 28, 2022

In line with the general weakening of regional currencies (the US dollar index rose 0.77% yesterday), the Australian dollar fell 81 points yesterday, overcame the first target level of 0.7065 and paused before the target level of 0.7007 this morning. The price drop below this level opens the next target at 0.6950.

On the four-hour chart, by this morning, a weak price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator has formed. The aussie will probably rest a bit under the level of 0.7065 before it declines further.

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JacksonZWDed · Jan 29, 2022

InstaForex Gertrude · Jan 31, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2022

Last Friday, the euro consolidated under the target resistance level of 1.1170. We expected that this consolidation would precede a further decline towards 1.1050. And in order for the emerging price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator not to take place, otherwise there will be a price reversal upwards, a decrease, at least a small one, already by today.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator rose high enough to reverse again. This signal line may still enter the consolidation range, marked with a gray area, but we expect a quick downward reversal from it.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 1, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 1, 2022

Yesterday, the Australian dollar made a corrective movement to the target level of 0.7065 - to the high of June 2020. This movement took place within the general downward movement, as the price still remains below the balance indicator line (red). The Marlin Oscillator is planning a downward reversal. Perhaps the correction will not continue. To confirm the resumption of decline, today should close below the level of 0.7065. Downside targets: 0.6950, 0.6870. Everything will be decided today after the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision on monetary policy.

On the four-hour chart, the price stays at the level of 0.7065 for a suspiciously long time, supported by the weakly growing Marlin Oscillator, which has already settled in the positive area. An attempt to overcome the resistance of the MACD line (0.7104) is not ruled out. Success will lead to further growth to the next target level of 0.7171. If, nevertheless, the price settles under 0.7065, then the price development will go according to the main scenario in the near future. The first downside target is 0.6950.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 2, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 2, 2022

After yesterday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, which refrained from tightening rhetoric and with not very favorable statistics (retail sales in Australia decreased by 4.4% in December), but against the backdrop of a fall in the US dollar by 0.40%, the Australian dollar rose by 62 points, than formed a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator and approached the target level of 0.7171. When the price reaches this level, the Marlin Oscillator will reach the zero line - the border with the growth territory. This line is an independent support/resistance level. The synchronous achievement of levels by the price and the oscillator can become a reversal factor. Only the transition of the price above the MACD line, above the level of 0.7272, will become a condition for the medium-term price growth.

On the H4 chart, the price has consolidated above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is almost in the overbought zone, which creates a very early and very weak sign of a possible reversal from resistance 0.7171. We are waiting for the development of events.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 3, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2022

The euro ended Wednesday with a growth of 30 points, and the price even settled above the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. Price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is developing. Of course, at first glance, a reversal situation has been created and the target level of 1.1450 is open, but there are several factors hindering growth. The strongest of them is an emerging reversal in adjacent markets - technical signs of a fall have developed in oil and stock indices. A weak factor, but developing in the future, is the reversal of the Marlin Oscillator before the border with the growth territory, which, together with the presence of the balance indicator line (red) above the price, indicates that the euro has grown over the past four days as a correction.

Thus, there is a possibility of the price returning under the MACD line and its subsequent fall to the target level of 1.1060. To confirm the growth, one more day must pass above the MACD line so that Marlin can move into the positive area and confirm this growth.

On the H4 chart, the price is above both indicator lines, Marlin is in growth territory, but is turning down from the overbought zone. The departure of the price under the MACD line, below 1.1250, will confirm the corrective nature of the growth of the euro over the past four days.

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JacksonZWDed · Feb 3, 2022

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 4, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 4, 2022

The outcome of yesterday's European Central Bank meeting, at which it was said that the central bank was not going to delay the rate hike for a long time, was a picture of investors leaving US values: the S&P 500 stock index collapsed by 2.44%, the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 1, 60% to 1.67%, gold fell by 1.05% at the moment, but was successfully bought back, the dollar index fell by 0.68%. Against this background, the growth of the USD/JPY pair looks correlationally weak, except perhaps as a result of the growth of EUR/JPY cross rates by 1.69% and GBP/JPY by 0.68%.

Today, if the markets grow on optimistic US employment data (the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 110-150,000), the dollar may continue its inertial growth towards the resistance of the MACD line (115.40), but there is a high probability of weaker data, up to negative, as it was on Wednesday for ADP Non-Farm, where the index showed -301,000 against the expectation of 185,000, and then we expect the USD/JPY pair to fall and take a course for further decline to 113.32 - to the monthly price channel line .

On the H4 chart, the price is still under the red balance indicator line, that is, yesterday's growth was clearly within the correction. The Marlin Oscillator is staying in the negative area. Overcoming the price of the MACD line (114.38) will return the price to the downward direction. We are waiting for the release of US data.

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JacksonZWDed · Feb 4, 2022

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 7, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2022

Last Friday, despite strong data on employment in the US, the euro was traded at the target level of 1.1450, having reached the high of the day, the peak on January 14th. Consolidating below this level will be the first sign of a price reversal into a deep correction, back to the MACD line, to the level of 1.1300. Along with a consolidation below 1.1450, a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator may be completed. Let's also assume a growth to 1.1496, which looks stronger than 1.1450 as it is the top of stronger reversals in March 2020 and October 2015. The divergence in this case will become more significant. Consolidating above 1.1496 will become a condition for growth to the target range of 1.1700/22.

The Marlin Oscillator is falling sharply on the four-hour chart. The probability of a reversal scenario is 60%. But this reversal is likely only for a correction to the 1.1300 area, from which the euro may turn upward. Consolidating under the MACD line of the daily scale (below 1.1300), further medium-term weakening of the European currency is possible.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 8, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2022

As of this morning, the growth situation looks unambiguous for the Australian dollar. The price turned up from the target level of 0.7065 supported by a strong price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale chart. The first growth target is 0.7190, the second target is 0.7227, the third target is 0.7291 – the low of July 2021. A price delay is likely in the 0.7190-0.7227 range, since the MACD line is located in it.

On the four-hour chart, the price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the upward trend zone. It is interesting to note here that the targets at 0.7190 and 0.7291 coincide with the 110.0% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels. The 0.7291 target will probably be fulfilled. It is likely to be corrected.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 9, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 9, 2022

The Australian dollar's growth by 20 points from yesterday confirmed its main scenario of moving into the range of 0.7190-0.7227. The MACD indicator line is located in this range, and here the main question will be decided - whether the price will settle above it and continue its medium-term growth, or turn into a medium-term fall, possibly with the formation of a double convergence.

Growth continues without a hitch on the four-hour scale. The price is growing above the balance and MACD lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. We are waiting for the price to enter the specified range of 0.7190-0.7227 and follow its further behavior.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 10, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 10, 2022

Today, the US will release data on inflation for January. Monthly CPI growth is projected to increase by 0.5%, the annual rate is expected at 7.3% against 7.0% y/y a month earlier. Core CPI is expected to rise to 5.9% y/y against 5.5% y/y in December. The first sign that the big players were tired of buying the euro against the data appeared last Friday and this Monday - the euro did not settle in the 1.1450/96 range with the release of strong US employment data. Now, if inflationary indicators turn out to be no worse than forecasted, we can expect the euro to fall. The target remains the same – 1.1300 – the August 2018 low. Below this level is the MACD indicator line, which is an independent support.

Also in favor of the fall is the increasing convergence of the price with the Marlin Oscillator. In general, the convergence is not strong, therefore, if the signal line of the oscillator does not go into negative territory during the price decline, the price and the oscillator may turn into a medium-term increase, as shown on the daily chart by a dashed line.

The downward trend is intensifying on the H4 chart. The price has lost momentum, has not consolidated in the range of 1.1450/96, the Marlin Oscillator is developing a decline in the downward trend zone. But the price still has support, up to the level of 1.1300 – the MACD line on H4 in the area of 1.1340. In the end, it may turn out that the bulls' affairs are not so bad. And if the euro may fall by today or tomorrow, then next week investors may again show interest in risk.

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JacksonZWDed · Feb 10, 2022

InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 11, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2022

The dollar's effort to settle above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair was not in vain - yesterday the price jumped by 86 points, closing the day with a rise of 52 points. Now the way for the dollar to the line of the price channel of the monthly chart in the area of 117.17 is open.

On the four-hour chart, visually stable growth continues in the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is in no hurry to grow, which allows the price to reach the lower border of the price channel either by a small correction, or by a sideways movement - by consolidation. Next, we are waiting for a new wave of growth.

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JacksonZWDed · Feb 11, 2022

InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 14, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 14, 2022

The Australian dollar fell by 30 points on Friday. As a result, we got the following technical picture: the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator made a false exit above the zero line (this moment is marked with a tick), thus forming the upper limit of its own descending channel. This channel has a middle line, which corresponds to the target level of 0.7065. We believe that the price will hesitate a bit at this level, but then it will continue to decline towards the target of 0.6950, which (in visual estimation) will correspond to the lower border of the oscillator's descending channel.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator also made a false exit above the zero line (tick), and the price is now attacking the support of the MACD line (0.7115). Now the aussie's closest target is the level of 0.7065.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Feb 15, 2022

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 15, 2022

On Monday, under the influence of external markets, the USD/JPY traded in a large range of 74 points, closing the day was a white candle, but the price could not effectively overcome the resistance of the MACD line. In today's Asian session, the body of yesterday's candle is already covered by a black candle. The Marlin Oscillator resumes its attack on the border with the territory of the downward trend, the divergence persists. The target of the medium-term movement is the line of the price channel of the monthly chart in the area of 113.33.

On the four-hour chart, after yesterday's short-term exit of the price above the MACD line, the price has already settled below it. The Marlin Oscillator turned down without leaving the territory of the downward trend. Looking forward to further price cuts.

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