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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The US dollar, which experienced victory recently, is forced to retreat under the pressure of the Fed's hawkish actions and investors' avoidance of risk. However, this currency does not intend to give up and plans to recover its current losses.

Investors' refusal to buy risky assets amid renewed fears about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain facilitated the pullback of the US currency. On Monday evening, some panic gripped the markets, so the US and European stock indices went into the negative zone. In this situation, risk aversion puts pressure on the yield of US Treasuries and limits the growth of the US dollar.

On the other hand, the price of the euro has increased correctively against the American one, and is now heading into an upward spiral. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1280, trying to further rise. At the same time, the US dollar fell below current highs, losing its previous gains after hitting plans to implement an infrastructure plan initiated by US President Joe Biden.

The news about the possible refusal of the US Senate to accept a large package of infrastructure spending (Build Back Better) shocked investors. Previously, its approval was taken for granted, but some representatives of the Democratic Party unexpectedly announced their readiness to vote against it. The reason lies in the significant burden on the American economy, which may not be able to withstand such costs.

Earlier, representatives of the largest bank Goldman Sachs excluded fiscal stimulus for the US economy from their baseline scenario and downgraded its growth forecast to 2% in the first quarter of 2022 (from the previous 3%), and to 3% in the second quarter (from the previously announced 3.5%) and up to 2.75% in the third quarter (from the previous 3%). Bank representatives also doubt that the first increase in the Fed's federal funds rate will occur in March 2022.

The current situation keeps the market participants thrilled. Many traders and investors believe that the failure to approve the infrastructure spending package will force the Fed to postpone the rate increase. As a result, their increase, planned for the first half of next year, as well as the easing of the stimulus package, may be postponed for a long time.

Regarding the prospects of the European currency, analysts do not have much hope. According to Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss, the euro in the EUR/USD pair will continue to weaken, despite the short-term current growth. Its further decline is possible if the ECB maintains its soft monetary policy. It can be recalled that last Thursday, the European regulator expectedly kept the interest rate on loans at zero, and the rate on deposits at -0.5%.

The ECB Governing Council believes that key rates will remain at current levels until inflation reaches the 2% target. At the same time, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, a representative of the Governing Council of the ECB and the Central Bank of Spain, announced yesterday an "unlikely" rate hike in 2022.

Experts assess the risks of a deterioration in the European economy as small, despite the worsening situation with the spread of new mutations of the coronavirus. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the tense situation with COVID-19 could negatively affect economic growth in the long term. According to her assessment, economic activity in the region slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2021, but at the beginning of next year, a moderate economic recovery will continue.

The absence of a traditional New Year rally added pessimism to the market. The reasons for this are the pressure on the US stock market amid problems related to the support program, and the uncertainty about the implementation of the Fed's decisions on raising rates and curtailing incentives Analysts emphasize that the tightening of monetary policy of the US regulator is currently under threat. This adds problems to the US dollar, whose dynamics are weak. Nevertheless, it has the strength for further recovery, which is not far off.

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US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.60%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones climbed 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.40%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Nike Inc, which rose in price by 9.65 points (6.15%), to close at 166.63. Boeing Co rose 5.86% or 11.04 points to end at 199.52. American Express Company added 3.22% or 5.02 points to close at 160.91.

The biggest losers were Merck & Company Inc, which fell 1.14% or 0.87 points to end the session at 75.54. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.58% or 0.31 points to end at 52.78, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.32% or 0.54 points to 167. , 21.

The growth leaders among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading were Citrix Systems Inc, which gained 13.63% to 95.05, Micron Technology Inc, which gained 10.54% to close at 90.68, and also Expedia Inc, which was up 9.14% to end at 177.27. The biggest losers were General Mills Inc, which fell 4.03% to close at 65.06. The Kroger Company shed 3.60% to end the session at 43.87. Pfizer Inc was down 3.39% to 58.95.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Reliance Global Group Inc, which rose in price by 78.69% to the level of 5.450, Biofrontera Inc, which gained 44.75%, to close at 11.03, as well as shares IsoPlexis Corp rose 40.82% to end at 6.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that went up (2,671) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (604), while the quotes of 88 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2889 companies rose in price, 880 declined, and 215 remained at the level of the previous close.

Aldeyra The shares fell to a 52-week low, shedding 50.91%, 3.63 points to trade at 3.50. Biofrontera Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 44.75%, 3.41 points, to trade at 11.03. DBV Technologies shares fell to historic lows, down 48.52%, 1.310 points, and ended trading at 1.390. CytomX Therapeutics Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 40.00%, 2.580 points to trade at 3.870.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 8.13% to trade at 21.01.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.28% or 5.05 to $ 1,789.55 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.92%, or 2.69, to $ 71.30 a barrel. Futures contract for Brent oil for February delivery was flat 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 74.03 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.02% to hit 1.1286, while the USD / JPY was up 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.10% at 96.445.

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US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.74%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.74%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.18%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Caterpillar Inc, which rose in price by 3.84 points (1.94%), to close at 202.15. Microsoft Corporation added 1.81% or 5.91 points to end trading at 333.20. Apple Inc rose 1.53% or 2.65 points to close at 175.64.

The biggest losers were Nike Inc, which fell 0.71% or 1.19 points to end the session at 165.44. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 0.53% or 0.83 points to end at 154.69 and 3M Company was down 0.16% or 0.28 points to 172. , 64.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Tesla Inc, which rose in price by 7.49% to the level of 1.008.87, Paychex Inc, which gained 5.52%, to close at 133.41, as well as shares CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 4.58% to end at 71.73.

The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which fell 6.66% to close at 127.87. Moderna Inc shed 6.26% to trade at 251.36. Cintas Corporation was down 1.81% to 428.89.

BiondVax Pharmaceuticals Ltd ADR, which gained 97.30% to 2.920, and Society Pass Inc gained 53.43% to close at 16.31, and also Acasti Pharma Inc rose 52.25% to end 1.6900.

The biggest losers were Allakos Inc, which fell 89.87% to close at 8.55. AgileThought Inc shed 30.40% to end the session at 6.410. CalAmp Corp was down 25.78% to 7.34.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,382) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (861), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2294 companies rose in price, 1524 declined, and 220 remained at the level of the previous close.

Paychex Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 5.52%, 6.98 points to trade at 133.41. CF Industries Holdings Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 4.58%, 3.14 points to trade at 71.73. Allakos Inc shares fell to historic lows, falling 89.87%, 75.84 points to trade at 8.55. AgileThought Inc fell to historic lows, down 30.40%, 2,800 points to end at 6.410. CalAmp Corp fell to a 52-week low, down 25.78%, 2.55 points to trade at 7.34.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 11.33% to trade at 18.63.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.89% or 15.95 to $ 1.804.65 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.64%, or 1.88, to $ 73.00 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery fell 0.03%, or 0.02, to trade at $ 75.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was flat 0.00% to hit 1.1324, while USD / JPY fell 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.42% at 96.085.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.55%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.62% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.85%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Caterpillar Inc, which increased in price by 4.05 points (2.00%), to close at around 206.20. Dow Inc added 1.68% or 0.91 points to end trade at 55.14. Honeywell International Inc rose 1.67% or 3.38 points to close at 205.22.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 0.61% or 1.34 points to end the session at 216.62. Merck & Company Inc is up 0.56% or 0.43 points to end at 75.73 and Walmart Inc is 0.22% or 0.31 points down to 139. , 49.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 5.76% to 1.067.00, ViacomCBS Inc, which gained 4.80% to close at 30.58, and shares Micron Technology Inc rose 4.52% to end the session at 94.42.

The biggest losers were Coterra Energy Inc, which fell 1.82% to close at 19.39. Hologic Inc shed 1.42% to end the session at 76.12. Pfizer Inc was down 1.41% to 58.71.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of 22nd Century Group Inc, which rose 38.64% to the level of 3.050, Oncology Institute Inc, which gained 38.46%, to close at 10.44, and Pasithea Therapeutics Corp rose 36.73% to trade at 2.01 at the close.

The biggest losers were InnovAge Holding Corp, which fell 35.64% to close at 5.31. Jupiter Wellness Inc shed 24.89% to trade at 0.954. American Virtual Cloud Technologies Inc was down 24.00% to 1,900.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that went up (2,289) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (971), while the quotations of 126 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2679 companies rose in price, 1163 declined, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.60% to 17.96, hitting a fresh monthly low.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.42% or 7.65 to $ 1.809.85 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 1.32%, or 0.96, to $ 73.72 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to trade at $ 76.61 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.03% to hit 1.1331, while USD / JPY was up 0.04% to hit 114.41.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.02% at 96.035.

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Czech crown shows highs

The Czech koruna paired with the euro strengthened in holiday trading on Friday to its highest level since February 2020, adding weight after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time in a row this week.

Czech crown shows highs

Recall that the local exchange is not working on the eve of Christmas.

The koruna is trading 0.4% higher at 25.00 against the euro at 14:36 GMT. The currency briefly broke through the psychological support level of 25 euros for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit the markets in early 2020.

The koruna was the most profitable currency in Central Europe in 2021 with an increase of 4.9%, which once again confirms the thesis about the benefits of the early introduction of rate hikes by the Central Bank.

The exchange rate rose 0.9% after the Czech National Bank surprised the markets on Wednesday by raising the rate by 100 basis points more than expected and said it was ready to strengthen its influence even more to contain the growth of inflation.

The bank's main discount rate now stands at 3.75%, the highest level since February 2008. This is 300 basis points higher than the rate just three months ago.

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Czech crown shows highs

The Czech koruna paired with the euro strengthened in holiday trading on Friday to its highest level since February 2020, adding weight after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time in a row this week.

Czech crown shows highs

Recall that the local exchange is not working on the eve of Christmas.

The koruna is trading 0.4% higher at 25.00 against the euro at 14:36 GMT. The currency briefly broke through the psychological support level of 25 euros for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit the markets in early 2020.

The koruna was the most profitable currency in Central Europe in 2021 with an increase of 4.9%, which once again confirms the thesis about the benefits of the early introduction of rate hikes by the Central Bank.

The exchange rate rose 0.9% after the Czech National Bank surprised the markets on Wednesday by raising the rate by 100 basis points more than expected and said it was ready to strengthen its influence even more to contain the growth of inflation.

The bank's main discount rate now stands at 3.75%, the highest level since February 2008. This is 300 basis points higher than the rate just three months ago.

News are provided by InstaForexCzech crown shows highs

The Czech koruna paired with the euro strengthened in holiday trading on Friday to its highest level since February 2020, adding weight after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time in a row this week.

Czech crown shows highs

Recall that the local exchange is not working on the eve of Christmas.

The koruna is trading 0.4% higher at 25.00 against the euro at 14:36 GMT. The currency briefly broke through the psychological support level of 25 euros for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit the markets in early 2020.

The koruna was the most profitable currency in Central Europe in 2021 with an increase of 4.9%, which once again confirms the thesis about the benefits of the early introduction of rate hikes by the Central Bank.

The exchange rate rose 0.9% after the Czech National Bank surprised the markets on Wednesday by raising the rate by 100 basis points more than expected and said it was ready to strengthen its influence even more to contain the growth of inflation.

The bank's main discount rate now stands at 3.75%, the highest level since February 2008. This is 300 basis points higher than the rate just three months ago.

News are provided by InstaForex
 
European stock markets in Europe ended trading with growth

Markets continue to be heavily influenced by the worldwide spread of the new COVID-19 strain omicron. Investors are closely monitoring the incidence rate in European countries and are worried that new surges could lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.6% to 485.49 points. Nevertheless, the value of the index is still below the high of 489.95 points reached on November 17.

France's CAC 40 Index added 0.8%, Germany's DAX Index added 0.5%, while Spain's IBEX and Italy's FTSE MIB gained 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

The leaders of growth among the components of Stoxx 600 on Monday came the shares of the Norwegian NEL ASA, working with renewable energy sources (+ 5.6%), the Swiss biopharmaceutical Idorsia Ltd. (+ 4.4%), as well as the Swedish online casino operator Evolution Gaming Group AB (+ 5%).

The stock quotes of the Swiss Roche Holding AG (+ 1.1%) also rose on the news that the US authorities approved the emergency use of the company's home tests for COVID-19, showing the result within 20 minutes.

CNH Industrial N.V., an international industrial group that announced the separation of its truck division Iveco Group, gained 2.7%. Iveco shares will begin trading on the Milan Stock Exchange on January 3.

In addition, shares of the main European technology companies completed trading in positive territory: ASML Holding (+ 1%), SAP (+ 0.7%), Nordic Semiconductor ASA (+ 3.5%) and Infineon Technologies (+ 2.4%) ...

The leaders of the fall in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the Swiss online pharmacy chain Zur Rose Group AG (-2.9%), the Danish energy Oersted A / S (-2.4%) and the operator of the food delivery service HelloFresh SE (-2.1 %).

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US stocks mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.26%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones rose 0.26% to a 1-month high, the S&P 500 lost 0.10% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.56%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were the shares of Walt Disney Company, which rose 2.40 points (1.57%), to close at 155.20. Boeing Co added 1.46 points or 1.46% to end trades at 206.13. Walmart Inc rose 1.44% or 2.02 points to end at 142.78.

The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which fell 1.10% or 2.85 points to end the session at 255.45. Nike Inc is up 0.69% or 1.16 points to end at 166.42, while Apple Inc is down 0.58% or 1.04 points to 179.29. ... The top gainers among the components of the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading were Campbell Soup Company, which rose 2.80% to 43.36, Ball Corporation, which gained 2.59% to close at 94.30, and American Airlines Group shares rose 2.04% to end the session at 18.54.

The biggest losers were DexCom Inc, which fell 7.09% to close at 529.50. Etsy Inc shed 3.46% to end the session at 221.73. Penn National Gaming Inc was down 2.89% to 49.34. The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Insignia Systems Inc, which rose 64.82% to 19.020, ShiftPixy Inc, which gained 43.09% to close at 1.120, and Pop Culture Group Co Ltd, which were up 35.88% to end the session at 2.31.

The biggest losers were Biofrontera Inc, which fell 29.50% to close at 8.10. Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd shed 25.45% to end the session at 0.6933. Sensus Healthcare Inc was down 22.67% to 6.310.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (1,725) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,531), while the quotations of 136 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2,494 companies fell in price, 1,330 increased, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.79% to 17.54, hitting a fresh monthly low.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.12% or 2.20 to $ 1.806.60 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 0.60%, or 0.45, to $ 76.02 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery rose 0.08%, or 0.06, to trade at $ 78.84 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.04% to hit 1.1313, while USD / JPY was up 0.00% to hit 114.82.

The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0.08% at 96.165.

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2021 was the best year for the US dollar

Experts agree that this year has been the best for the US dollar, which has not experienced such victory over the past seven years. This currency enters the upcoming 2022 with a reserve of optimism, which it will retain for a long time.

The US currency completed the current year with growth against most of the key currencies. The dollar index, which reflects the USD exchange rate against a basket of six leading currencies, increased 6.8% over the year. Such a sharp growth was shown only by the Canadian dollar due to the increase in oil prices by 50% over the year. According to Saxo Bank analysts, the sustained recovery of the US and Canadian economies will lead to an early rate hike from both central banks. Saxo Bank also believes that the consequence of the Fed's aggressive policy will be the tightening of conditions in the financial markets. If this scenario occurs, the US dollar will outperform other currencies as a safe haven asset.

Experts said that this year was the best for the US currency for the last seven years. The US dollar has shown high efficiency, often holding the leading positions. The surge in inflation, which has not been observed in the United States over the past 40 years, has become the driver of this growth.

At the same time, the US dollar was supported by record investments in it by large hedge funds. This contributed to the rapid growth of the US currency. Moreover, experts consider the doubling of the pace of curtailing the Federal Reserve's asset repurchase program to be the catalyst for the recovery of this currency. The high interest rates and the course for further tightening of the monetary policy provide invaluable support to the US currency.

Amid growing concerns about inflation, the regulator may raise the key rate four times instead of the planned three in 2022. According to experts, a 1% rate hike will start to significantly affect economic activity. Experts expect the first Fed rate increase in March, with a 54% probability. By the end of 2022, the probability of two rate hikes is 90%, and a threefold increase is 66%.

Analysts are sure that the inertia towards the strengthening of the US dollar will remain at the beginning of the new year. At the same time, the European currency will remain in the range of 1.1000-1.1500. The reasons for this are the Fed's curtailment of stimulus and the ECB's "dovish" strategy in relation to monetary policy. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1324, slightly losing its position. However, experts expect the euro's long-term downward trend to reverse by mid-2022.

ING's currency strategists are more confident in the growth of the US dollar more than the euro. The bank believes that the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed will cause the US dollar to rise. However, this sharp appreciation is constrained by the fact that the markets have put two to three rate hikes in their value. At the same time, analysts remind us that a fourfold rise is not excluded. Morgan Stanley currency strategists believe that in the second half of 2022, the US currency will partially plunge. However, most experts adhere to positive forecasts regarding the US currency.

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Who will take the lead between the US dollar and Chinese yuan?

The eternal rivals, the American and Chinese currencies, reasserted themselves at the beginning of the new year. Analysts said that they have rejoined the race to take control of the global financial market.

Experts believe that the yuan has quite high chances in relation to the US dollar. Many analysts view the Chinese currency as a successor of the American one, which can take the place of the global reserve means of payment. This gives confidence to the yuan and adds nervousness to the US dollar, although no one doubts the strength of the latter. It can be recalled that the US currency showed the best result in six years at the end of 2021, although it slightly lost its position at the close of the final trading day of the past year.

In the long term, experts admit that the US dollar's decline will be moderate, but not very loud. The value of the US dollar is declining against the background of the gradual recovery of the global economy after the curtailment of lockdowns caused by COVID-19. Other reasons for the potential decline will be increased political tensions between the United States and Europe, as well as the aggressive policy of the US towards China and Mexico. Experts also highlighted that the increased pressure from Washington on the above-mentioned trading partners with the use of anti-dumping measures and sanctions contributes to the devaluation of the USD.

Currently, the Chinese currency, which operates "quietly," will wait for its finest hour. By choosing the moment when the US dollar will weaken the most, the yuan will take advantage of the situation and press it out on the global financial market. Similar attempts were made last year, but they were unsuccessful. But at the end of 2021, the yuan was among the leaders among the currencies of emerging markets.

According to analysts, the US dollar's "protective function" in the world financial market over the past decade is gradually weakening. Its loss of the "safe haven" asset status will continue due to the transition of a number of countries to settlements in national currencies in international trade. The Fed's upcoming action to tighten monetary policy also adds pressure. Experts believe that this increases the risks of the devaluation of the US currency.

As for the Euro currency, this year can also bring disappointment amid the Fed's rate hike. The past year seemed extremely unfortunate for the euro, so the markets are worried that this might happen again as the ECB continues to adhere to soft monetary policy. According to the President of the regulator Christine Lagarde, tightening monetary policy is now unreasonable, since it interferes with economic recovery. The European regulator does not plan to raise interest rates this 2022.

The euro is currently inferior to the US dollar again, and the EUR/USD pair is capable of returning to the range of 1.0850-1.0900 and staying there for a long time. However, experts expect the pair to recover in the coming month, although they are not hoping for steady growth. On Monday morning, the EUR USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1338, attempting to keep its recovered positions.

There may be no winners or losers in the global financial market this year. The US currency has impressive potential to maintain its strength, but the Chinese one is strong due to its wait-and-see strategy. At the same time, experts summarize that both currencies claiming leadership are capable of peacefully coexisting in the global financial space.

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EUR/USD: US dollar's victory is not an indication of the euro's decline

The US dollar started the year on a positive note, pulling the European currency upward, which is on the verge of falling again. At the same time, it seems that the never-ending imbalance in the EUR/USD pair is not an annoying misunderstanding, but an important step towards its further development.

January 2022 started with sharp growth for the US currency amid expectations of an increase in the Fed's key rate and curtailment of stimulus. Market quotes have already incorporated the Fed's key measures – the first rate hike by May and two more at the end of 2022. Later, the US dollar was expected to decline moderately, which did not affect the overall optimistic picture. At the same time, the dollar index has shown impressive daily gains for the last two months. A sharp rise in the yields of long-term US Treasury bonds, which increased by 12.5 points, reaching a record of 1.642%, primarily supported the US dollar. This is the highest figure since the end of November 2021.

On another note, the Euro currency has to defend its positions again in order not to be an outsider. European markets started the week with a moderate rise, gaining about 1%. On Tuesday morning, the euro traded around the level of 1.1306, exceeding the weekly low of 1.1279. The EUR/USD pair was moving around the range of 1.1303-1.1304, striving for new highs, but later lost its positions along the way.

Analysts said that the EUR/USD pair temporarily found itself in a bear trap at the beginning of the week but managed to get out of it. However, there is still bearish pressure on Tuesday, leaving the pair vulnerable to market volatility. Based on preliminary calculations, the temporary resistance line in the EUR/USD pair is located near 1.1398 (55-day SMA), and the next resistance level is at 1.1430. Its breakdown will significantly weaken the bearish pressure. The implementation of such a scenario in the short term will help the pair to reach new peaks.

Barclays Bank analysts stated that the aggressive scenario of rate hikes in the US is strong support for the US currency. Currency strategists assess such a development as the most likely. An additional catalyst for such growth may be the minutes of the Fed's December meeting, which is expected to be published this week. According to experts, this will clarify the issue of raising rates by the Fed and the timing of stabilization of its balance sheet. On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released in the United States, demonstrating the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country. Positive data will support the US dollar, which will pull up the euro again.

Many analysts are asking questions: is the current difficulties of the euro amid a winning US dollar a pattern? The situation is developing as it should, and so, will the periodic imbalances arising in the EUR/USD pair will not cause damage to the euro? The answer is yes at the moment. However, a moderately calm situation may completely change, and then the fragile balance in the EUR/USD pair will be disturbed.

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What kind of shocking surprise can gold present this year?

Gold's price increased yesterday, despite the growth of the US dollar and the yield on US government bonds. Some experts believe that it will bring such pleasant surprises more than once in 2022.

On Tuesday, prices for the precious metal closed higher despite the above-mentioned reasons. The dollar index rose by 0.1% against its major competitors. The indicator reached 96.286 points.

The growth of the US dollar was facilitated by the rapid dynamics of US debt securities. Yesterday, the yield on 2-year government bonds reached its highest in 22 months and amounted to 0.796%. The strengthening of expectations of the Fed's more aggressive policy acted as support.

On January 4, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said that the rate of growth in prices in the United States exceeded the forecast and that the acceleration of inflation was longer than economists expected. In this regard, the official believes that the Central Bank of America will raise interest rates this year twice, and not thrice.

The hawkish comments put some pressure on gold quotes. However, the yellow asset found strong support from economic data.

The Institute for Supply Management released a report on the level of business activity in the US manufacturing sector on Tuesday. According to statistics, the PMI in December fell to 58.7 from 61.1 recorded in the previous month. This is the lowest growth rate in almost a year. Economists had expected the indicator to be 60.

According to analysts, the slowdown in US business activity provoked a new strain of COVID-19. This is a very favorable factor for gold, which is traditionally perceived by investors as a safe haven asset. Meanwhile, Omicron infections continue to rise in America. Another record was reported at the beginning of the week: the figure was 1,083,948 new cases, Johns Hopkins University reported.

Coronavirus news remains a powerful trigger for this precious metal. Gold is growing as stricter restrictions are introduced in some countries due to the Omicron strain.

So, yesterday, February gold futures rose in price by 0.8%, or $ 14.50. At the close of the session, it traded at $ 1,814.60. Most experts believe that at this stage, the precious metal retains the potential to rise in the short term.

There is also an opinion that gold will rise in the future. Analysts Byron Wien and Joe Zidle are confident that the yellow asset will begin to regain its status soon as the main hedge instrument against inflation. They stated this in the article "10 surprises of 2022".

Interestingly, the publication appeared after gold showed the worst annual figure in 6 years, falling by 3.6% in 2021.

An unexpected forecast for 2022 suggests that investors will seek protection from problematic and more persistent inflation in the yellow asset. This will allow gold to rally to a new all-time high, even though the metal will continue to compete with cryptocurrencies.

B. Wien and J. Zidle expect gold prices to rise by 20% over the course of the year. If their scenario comes true, gold will trade at $ 2,160. Experts themselves estimate the probability of their prediction being fulfilled at more than 50%.

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Fed's hawkish comments resulted in gold's decline

Omicron continues to set records, rapidly spreading across the planet. Against this background, investors are looking for protection from gold. The value of the precious metal sharply increased on Wednesday.

Yesterday, the yellow asset continued its upward movement and rose for the second session in a row. Compared to its growth of 0.8% gold surged by 0.6% during the middle of the week. The increase in monetary terms was $ 10.50, and the final price was $ 1,825.10.

The rise in quotes was facilitated by the decline in key US stock indices and the weakening of the US dollar. So, during trading, the NASDAQ Composite indicator plummeted by more than 1%, and the US dollar fell by 0.4% against its main competitors.

The increase in cases with the new strain of COVID-19 exerted pressure on the indicators. On the other hand, analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that the alarming coronavirus statistics accelerated the flight of investors to a safe place – to the gold market.

Amid increased coronavirus risk, the precious metal showed impressive dynamics yesterday, but the celebration did not last long.

Following the close of trading, the minutes of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy issues in December was published. Hawkish comments by officials of the US central bank brought down gold prices to a 2-week low.

Fed officials noted that a strong economic recovery and high inflation in the US may require an earlier and faster-than-expected rate hike.

According to the updated data, the US regulator expects real GDP to increase by 4% over the next 12 months. The PCE inflation forecast was raised from 2.2% to 2.6% in 2022.

At the same time, the updated dot chart showed that amid record inflation, Fed officials intend to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point this year.

According to analyst Brien Lundin, any hint that the first rate increase will happen earlier is actually not bearish, but bullish for gold.

The expert draws attention to the fact that the precious metal often rises when the Fed rates increase. Therefore, the initial rate hike in December 2015 ended a long bearish trend in the gold market. After that, the asset showed a confident positive trend for several months.

Now, investors are waiting for the Fed to comment on Omicron's impact on the economy. This could happen as early as next week, as Jerome Powell is due to address the US Senate Banking Committee in a meeting on his re-nomination as head of the central bank.

If the Fed chairman's excitement over a new strain of coronavirus turns out to be high, the price of the precious metal will soar. Otherwise, we are waiting for a further drop in quotes.

However, gold's movement in the short term may be affected by statistics from the US labor market. The US employment report will be published tomorrow. According to economists' forecasts, the number of new jobs in the US in December will amount to 422 thousand. This is almost 2 times more than in November. If the expectations are met, the yellow asset will most likely continue to decline.

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Gold has good prospects in the long-term

Gold suddenly went out of the way after starting 2022 positively. However, experts consider the current fall short-term, expecting the yellow metal to rise in the long term. The current.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar still dominates other major currencies

Europe's single currency cannot outperform the US dollar. This was stated by Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank. One of the main reasons is that the European regulator is the most static central bank in the world. Thus, the European Union's benchmark interest rate has remained at zero for quite some time, i.e. has not changed since March 2016. Furthermore, ECB head Christine Lagarde sees no reason to raise interest rates in 2022.

According to Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation rose to 4.9% in November, the highest in 25 years. Jakobsen believes that the EU economy can grow faster than the economies of other countries or show a current account surplus. The surplus is falling due to obvious difficulties in the services sector. This also applies to Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

As for the US dollar, according to the SWIFT, it was still able to hold onto its position as the main currency in the international settlement ranking in November. Thus, the US dollar gained 39.16%. That means it rose by 1.53% in 12 months. It has strengthened due to the widening interest rate gap as well as inflation dynamics in the US compared to other major markets such as Japan and Europe.

The euro was clearly underperforming. It gained 37.66%, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.22%. Among the leaders were the British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese renminbi.

A monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected by analysts in March, will give the dollar the strongest support, making it extremely difficult for most currencies to rise against the US dollar in the coming months.

It is the interest rate differential, not the coronavirus, that will determine sentiment in the major currency markets in the near future. The vast majority of analysts polled by Reuters are confident that fluctuations in the currency markets will become noticeably greater over the next three months. Notably, this confidence applies not only to the currencies of the major markets but also to emerging market currencies.

After an interest rate hike already in the first month of spring, the US regulator is expected to start reducing its assets. The dollar could then feel superior to the other major currencies. By the way, financial markets expect at least three rate hikes in the US this year.

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Is the EUR/USD pair preparing for a new battle?

Some analysts explain the short-term lull in the EUR/USD pair by grouping before a new surge. First of all, this concerns the US dollar, in the shadow of which the euro resides.

The US currency started the current year with a rise and is trying to consolidate in an upward trend. It already succeeds in this without huge efforts, contrary to the euro, which is still lying low. However, the US dollar remained inactive, weakly reacting to what was happening. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1341. The pair is now dominated by a bullish mood, which can change anytime. The possible targets for the bulls are 1.1364, 1.1385, and 1.1442.

Currently, the US dollar is moving in the middle of the current range against major world currencies, as markets are waiting for the Fed's decisions on the timing and pace of normalization of monetary policy. The regulator keeps the markets in suspense, continuing the "hawkish" strategy launched at the end of December 2021. Experts are worried about the Fed's excessive enthusiasm, which is ready to use every fund to curb the powerful inflation.

Amid the Federal Reserve's high activity, the smoother actions of the ECB seem unnecessarily slow. Analysts fear that the European regulator will lose time to normalize the economic situation in the region. This development of events will seriously weaken the euro, which somewhat looks neglected right now. Experts consider Europe's sharp rise in gas prices to be an additional negative factor for the euro. The strengthening of this trend contributes to the further decline of the euro and the strengthening of its rival in the EUR/USD pair. After all, the US currency is given a head start in anticipation of a rate hike in March 2022 and an accelerated transition to cut stimulus.

The cycle of key rate hikes launched by the Fed in the middle of this year will clearly strengthen the US currency. According to experts, the main factors that support it are the tightening of monetary policy and the potential outflow of capital from emerging markets. It can be recalledd that the continued stimulus from the regulator and the negative US trade balance contribute to the weakening of the US dollar. Analysts said that the US dollar strengthening is impossible without tightening monetary policy.

The current instability in the world is pushing experts to negative forecasts. Many of them admit that currency battles will emerge in the near future. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to the devaluation of national currencies in relation to foreign ones. The "core" of such a war can be the US dollar, around which the entire financial world revolves. It is possible that this currency will take the victory again or share the throne with the euro. Moreover, excessive inflation could be the catalyst for the financial battle. According to analysts, the EUR/USD pair is highly likely to converge on the global markets.

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Did the Fed cause the US dollar to collapse?

The US dollar dropped after the Fed's statements about the duration of the normalization of monetary policy. During this process, the indicated currency risks losing its advantages as the main safe-haven currency.

On Wednesday, the US currency collapsed to its lowest level since November 2021. The main reason for this was the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who allowed a gradual increase in interest rates amid the continuous high inflation in the United States. The regulator's management believes that it will take several months to make a decision to cut the central bank's balance sheet by $ 9 trillion.

In a similar situation, this currency found itself in a slight stupor state, trying to cope with the current losses. Powell's statements that the US economy "does not need aggressive monetary stimulus measures" exerted additional pressure. The central bank is ready to start normalizing monetary policy, but this process will take time. During the speech of the Fed chairman, the markets expected to find signals about the possible timing of the first rate hike. However, the situation remained unclear, as the head of the regulator stressed that the Fed did not focus on the timing of amendments to the monetary policy and did not make decisions on reducing the balance sheet.

The tension of the general background of the global financial market shocked the US dollar. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was in the range of 1.1373-1.1374. At the same time, the Euro currency has slightly risen since the close of the previous session, in which it was trading at the level of 1.1364.

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EUR/USD: Euro's gradual movements are more effective than the US dollar's surges

The US currency, which has fallen again after some macro statistics, finds it difficult to maintain balance in the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the euro is having a hard time keeping up with the US dollar, so it prefers to move slowly but surely towards achieving its goal.

Currently, the market is evaluating the US inflation data released yesterday. According to the report, consumer prices in the country in December 2021 increased by 0.5%, accelerating to 7% year-on-year. The key index gained 0.6% over the month, rising to 5.5% year-on-year. As for the prices excluding energy carriers and food, more than 1.7% was added in three months.

Based on the data obtained, economists concluded that high inflation penetrates into the very core of the economy. In this situation, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates in March 2022. The regulator fears not only soaring inflation but also the "overheated" US labor market. The Fed officials consider high inflation a significant threat to a full economic recovery, so they are ready to raise interest rates since there is no longer a need for emergency monetary support.

As a response to the published macro data, the US dollar sharply declined. It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair passed through the upper border of the range 1.1200-1.1350 again before the release of the report. To date, the upward movement of the pair continues. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.5% immediately after the release of inflation data, leaving the level of 1.1400 behind. On Thursday morning, it was trading at the level of 1.1444, trying to break new borders.

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US dollar is trying to resist the decline amid statistics and high inflation

The US currency has to fight the collapse again at the end of the week, resisting the negative impact of several factors, including the problem of macro statistics. Nevertheless, experts are confident that it will recover without much loss.

For a long time, this currency remains hostage to high US inflation. It can be recalled that the December macro statistics showed the highest core inflation over the past 40 years. The recent US CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms was 5.5%, which is higher than November's 4.9%. Current macro reports have shown that the expectation of the Fed's decisive action has reached a peak. The current situation practically sharply affected the US dollar, which is trying to resist the impact of negative factors.

It has now suffered significant losses, including a key technical breakthrough in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the classic pair broke the resistance line around 1.1386, which limited the actions of the EUR/USD pair since November 2021. The reason for this is the sharp weakening of the US currency, recorded after the release of the December CPI. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1477, trying to keep its won positions.

Experts consider the level of 1.1500 to be the next important resistance area for the pair. This is the previous low of the EUR/USD pair recorded before its massive collapse last November. The current situation is much the same. Today, the US dollar hit its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The reason for this is a sharp reduction in long positions on the USD and the markets taking into account several Fed rate hikes in its price.

According to analysts, expectations of decisive action from the Fed do not matter much for the US dollar. Earlier, the US currency collapsed amid a sharp rise in the price of a number of commodities. The only "trump card" it has now will be another search for a safe haven if risk sentiment changes dramatically. The dynamics of this currency are significantly affected by inflation, and most often negatively. The Fed keeps the need to outpace its growth, and this tension has a negative impact on the American currency.

However, many experts are optimistic about the US dollar's medium and long-term prospects. Specialists believe that it will systematically strengthen, alternating ups and downs. Analysts summarize that this is facilitated by the continued growth of commodities and the global asset market.

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Musk says Tesla to accept dogecoin

On Friday, Musk announced on Twitter that Tesla Inc would accept Dogecoin as payment for its products, such as the Giga Texas belt buckle and mini-model electric cars.

The news sent the value of Dogecoin soaring more than 14%. The move comes a month after Musk said Tesla would test out the digital token as a payment option.

Musk had already hit Bitcoin prices hard in the spring of 2021 with the same announcement, promising that the company would accept Bitcoins to buy its cars. However, he later changed his mind. So, some analysts believe this is Elon Musk's way of covering up the slump after the postponement of Cydertrack.

Thus, production of Tesla's much-anticipated Cybertruck will start in the first quarter of 2023, pushing back plans to start production in late 2022.

However, Tesla products, including the recently launched Cyberwhistle and Cyberquad for Kids, have been in steady demand and typically sell out within hours of being put up for sale, even when paid for in regular currencies. But some analysts are predicting a new surge in popularity for Tesla merchandise once token payment is introduced.

Due to Musk's tweets about Dogecoin, the little-known digital currency, which began as a social media joke, has become one of the most recognizable and well-growing tokens. Its price has risen by around 4,000% in 2021.

Last year, Tesla said it had bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoins. Musk also mentioned that he had Bitcoins and Dogecoins. However, as early as May, it was revealed that Elon had gotten rid of many cryptocurrency assets. This information confuses investors.

This may be an attempt to put competitive pressure on rivals, as traditional carmakers such as Ford Motor Co, as well as start-ups including Rivian Automotive, are set to launch their electric cars this year.

However, it is not yet clear how this trade move will be received by lawmakers, who have recently become concerned about crypto regulation.

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