Economic and company news by ForexMart

January 30, 2017

BB to keep rates on hold, Kabir Said

The central bank of Bangladesh maintained its key policy rates on January 29, Sunday according to Governor Fazle Kabir, noting the comprehensive Macro stability coupled with a stable inflation forecast. As mentioned by the bank’s governor, the predicted average inflation was estimated from 5.3 to 5.6 percent in June which is lower than the 5.8 percent goal for the fiscal year of 2016-17.

Kabir also added that the increasing value of the global commodities for this year would probably weigh an upward pressure on the domestic prices, he said in a press conference, marking the quantitative measure of the monetary policy from the month of January to June. Moreover, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) have trimmed its interest rates with a half percentage point in January 2016.

The average rate of inflation reached 5.92 percent during the fiscal year 2015-2016 which is the lowest recorded in 12 years. It is because of the steep decline in the commodity prices and the output in agriculture from South Asian countries, approximately 160 million individual.
 
January 30, 2017

USD Drops, Asia Stocks Slump after Trump’s Immigration Ban Causes Unrest


The US dollar inched lower and asian stocks declined after the market suffered repercussions brought about by President Trump’s various implementing policies, including an immigration which has sparked outrage from a number of the world’s most influential leaders as well as some tech giants. Meanwhile, bonds rose in value along with gold prices. The US dollar traded within its lowest levels in over two months and has weakened significantly against all other major currencies. Oil prices also decreased in value for the second consecutive day this week.
 
January 31, 2017
Positive Outlook on Japan’s Economic Growth Forecast caused BOJ to Maintain its Policy
The Bank of Japan adjusted higher its economic forecast on Tuesday. However, the monetary policy remained the same which is already anticipated. The GDP forecast for the year increased by 14% from 1.0% in October for this fiscal year. Its economic forecast was raised by 1.5% from 1.3% for this year and 1.1 percent from 0.9% in the following fiscal year. Alongside, the inflation of 2% is anticipated to increase as well for the fiscal year in 2018 since the medium to long-term inflation expectations has a positive outlook and halts is recent decline.

The Labor market is also doing well with rates tightening and the downtrend of the commodity prices is pushed higher by the increase in demand for International commodity prices. The currency yield-curve policy control approved on later September meeting of the central bank is expected to maintain its current stand despite the uncertainty brought by the new U.S. administration as one of their top trading trading partner.
 
Janury 31, 2017

Germany Oust China as the World’s Largest Exporter

Based on the report of Ifo Research Institute, the trade surplus account of Germany broke its own record of $297 billion last 2016, the figures beat China’s maximum which made Germany become the richest exporter worldwide. The total output is equal to 8.6 percent breaking the projected 6 percent of the European Commission. In 2015, the country’s current account is about $271 billion.

Moreover, the EU executive together with the United States advises the highly populated European country to improve imports as well as the domestic demand as a means to lessen the imbalances in the global economy along with the international increase in fuel involves the euro region. However, Germany ignored this statement, claiming that the domestic demand boosted with the aid of the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015. The increase in state pensions last year also supported the economic aggregate spending. Moreover, the China’s surplus in 2016 is approximately $245 billion because of depleted exports according on the statistics from the Munich-based think tank.

On the other hand, Sigmar Gabriel, the 57-year old Vice Chancellor, mentioned that Germany’s current account is possible to decline for 2017 due to uncertainties within the global trade.
 
January 31, 2017

European Equities Fall as Trump’s Trade Plans Unravel

European stocks plummeted on Monday after investors assessed the possible implications of President Trump’s recent immigration ban in the US, particularly the possibility of political unrest and fallout as a result of the said ban. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index saw losses in the mining, energy, and banking sector, with the benchmark dropping down by 1.1%. Meanwhile, Greek stocks experienced the largest drop in the western European market as a result of concerns regarding Greece’s bailout dues. In general, the international market is alarmed that Trump might soon implement isolationist policies after implementing his ban on Islamic nations.
 
February 7, 2017

Indonesia Economy Rose to 5.02%

The Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia beefed up by 5.02 percent in 2016 versus 4.88 percent in 2015 based on the report of Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday. However, the Austronesian nation declined during the Q4 with a year-over-year decrease in GDP by 4.94 percent with the previous 5.02 percent in Q3.

The chief of BPS, Suhariyanto mentioned the government expenditure also dropped to 4.05 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016 followed by a budget curtailment which causes for a slower annual percentage compared with the same quarter in 2015 with an increase of 7.12 percent.

The adjusted public spending regarded as being caused by austerity measures led by the administration of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo with an estimated Rp 137 trillion (US$10.27 billion) trimmed budget.

Furthermore, the figures for imports and exports grew slower with 1.74 percent only while 2.27 percent in 2016 accordingly. Investments mounted to 4.48 percent in the previous year.

The household consumption of Indonesia is considered the largest factor for the country’s GDP reaching 56 percent within the total percentage, the increase is approximately 5.01 percent.
 
February 7, 2017

Asian Stocks Drop after JPY Haven Demand Surge

Asian equities experienced a decline following a JPY rally after the demand for the safe haven currency increased following various concerns surrounding political events worldwide. The Japanese Topix index decreased after a three-day high as the JPY recorded its highest value since November 2016 last Monday. This recent rally in equities caused by Trump’s policies have started to weaken as most investors are now worried with how the Trump administration plans to balance out its proposed tax cuts and added spending with its protectionist stance on international trade. Adding to risk are some EU countries where anti-establishment organizations are now gaining fuel prior to their respective national elections.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The market has been experiencing a lot of volatility recently due to the pronounced weakness of most major currencies, with traders having a hard time picking out definite directions, with profits going from positive to negative in just a matter of minutes. During yesterday’s session, the USD was able to regain the majority of losses against the EUR, with the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.0700 points. For a brief moment it looked like that this particular stance of the currency pair would remain standing and would eventually become overpowered by the dollar’s strength but the following day saw the dollar losing its ground and dropping back to its previous lows. There is basically a surrounding fear and marked uncertainty felt within the market right now that all currencies are very weak, which has resulted in this very rare price action.

There are no major news data expected to be released from either the European Union or the US today, and this means more ranging and consolidation activity for the EUR/USD pair. This is generally okay for day traders but could spell disaster for long-term traders as they become hard pressed to find direction in this very chaotic market environment.
 
February 7, 2017

Indonesia Economy Rose to 5.02%

The Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia beefed up by 5.02 percent in 2016 versus 4.88 percent in 2015 based on the report of Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday. However, the Austronesian nation declined during the Q4 with a year-over-year decrease in GDP by 4.94 percent with the previous 5.02 percent in Q3.

The chief of BPS, Suhariyanto mentioned the government expenditure also dropped to 4.05 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016 followed by a budget curtailment which causes for a slower annual percentage compared with the same quarter in 2015 with an increase of 7.12 percent.

The adjusted public spending regarded as being caused by austerity measures led by the administration of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo with an estimated Rp 137 trillion (US$10.27 billion) trimmed budget.

Furthermore, the figures for imports and exports grew slower with 1.74 percent only while 2.27 percent in 2016 accordingly. Investments mounted to 4.48 percent in the previous year.

The household consumption of Indonesia is considered the largest factor for the country’s GDP reaching 56 percent within the total percentage, the increase is approximately 5.01 percent.
 
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The USD/CAD pair increased in value for the second this day this week after the currency pair’s bulls finally took control after a week-long struggle with the bears who were threatening to put downward pressure on the pair and push it even lower than 1.3000 points. Market analysts had been previously saying that the 1.3000 region is a make or break point for both bulls and bears, and once the pair surpasses this barrier the bears would have full control of the USD/CAD pair and a shift in the pair’s trend will occur.

This forecast fortunately did not come into fruition as the bulls took hold of the pair and is now inducing the pair to go higher and higher as we speak. The recent drop in oil prices also did some good for the currency pair’s movement, which was largely due to the recent oil production cut agreement, and since the Canadian economy is hugely reliant on oil prices, a drop in oil prices automatically translates to a weaker Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD has been inching consistently higher during these past trading sessions and could possibly reach 1.3200 if this trend continues.

There are no major economic news releases from Canada scheduled to be released today, but the US will be releasing its oil inventory data which will be closely monitored by investors as this might cause the CAD to further weaken once it exhibits an additional build-up on its data.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The decline in crude oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar while the stronger US dollar added pressure to push the loonie downwards.

The USDCAD resumed a short-term uptrend on Tuesday. Moreover, the USD came in green against its Canadian peer. The spot gradually increased overnight reaching 1.3120 level prior to opening of the European session. There is a renewed buying pressure within the greens which supported the pair towards its fresh highs. The price spiked and touched 1.3190 region in the post-EU open.

The barrier restricted its developement as it holds the major enclosed the region. The price drove the 100 and 50-EMAs higher as shown in the 4-hour chart. The pair nearly reached the 200-EMA which became the resistance. Furthermore, the 50 and 100 EMAs shifted to an upward trend while 200-EMA headed lower. Resistance entered 1.3190 area, support holds 1.3120 handle.

The MACD approached the positive territory, preserving this area would mean a stronger stance for the buyers. RSI hovered around the overvalued range indicating another upward trajectory.

It is projected that a near-term bullish momentum will return. In order to resumed this bullishness, the pair should focus on top of 1.3190 mark.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The United Kingdom released Halifax House Prices and Like-For-Like Retail Sales by which both indices published negative results. Likewise, Brexit issues further affected the major.

The sterling weakened in spite of broad strengthening of the US dollar yesterday. The GBPUSD rebounded in the 1.2500 during the morning trades and continued to decline under 1.2400 region in the EU hours. Sellers drove the price downwards amid post-opening London session en route 1.2300.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price lead the 100 and 50-EMA towards a lower direction and further tested the 200-day moving averages. The 50-EMA moved lower while the 100-EMA directed upwards and the 200-EMA sits in the neutral territory. Resistance touched 1.2400, support entered 1.2300 region. MACD grew weaker which favored strength for the sellers. RSI hovered in the oversold zone and ployed downwards.

It can also be seen in the 4-hour chart that the price preserved its bearish sentiment. If the pair focuses below 1.2400 support, the spot resumed a short-term downward momentum. The next probable target of the sellers is 1.2300.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The negative result of German Industrial Production weighed against the euro. The wide-ranging US recovery further affected the single European currency.

The market appeared to be bearish yesterday. The EURUSD kept intact in the pressured area throughout the trading day. The EUR was removed from the 1.0750 level during the daily open and resumed its decline towards 1.0700 region.

Sellers was able to broke the region amid EU hours. Bears continuously drove the price downwards within the day and tested mark 1.0650 in the middle session of Europe.

Having touched the aforesaid mark, the downward momentum weakened causing the spot to make a reversal. The pair lead the 100 and 50-EMAs lower as mentioned in the 4-hour chart. The price extend its development on top of the 200-EMA subsequently. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) headed upwards based on the same timeframe. Resistance highlighted 1.0700, support jump in at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram is in the negative territory, maintaining this position would provide strength for the sellers. RSI moved southwards following an escape within the neutral readings.

Another bearish outlook is expected to prevail. It is also possible to consider another downward movement in the 1.0650 level, en route 1.0600.
 
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The pair sustains its uptrend from 0.7159 as the former decline at 0.7695 is a consolidation in the upper channel. The price ranges between 0.7571 and 0.7695 levels in the next days to come and the price could further go up towards the 0.7800 mark after consolidation. The main support level is found at 0.7511 and if the price breaks at this area, this implies the uptrend is complete.

The Australian dollar was affected overnight when Chinese Reserves data slumped lower than the psychological $3 Trillion. The broader greenback was hold back from a tailwind while commodity currencies steadily holds compared to a general currency where China could lessen their commodity purchases. However, there are elevated risks in the market as the Chinese reserves continues to go down.

The RBA decision remains neutral which is already expected as the Aussie maintains the high trading. Traders remain cautious as the central bank might become dovish or might recover as it might move higher from the latest weakness of GDP and inflation. The Fed has strongly sent a message to push through the rate hike on March and is still behind and could get even worse. The dollar bulls having a hard time in the market as they try to fight for the current significant psychological levels.

The oil market also was not able to sustain the commodity prices this morning with the Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) are mostly accessed when the U.S. Crude oil inventories increased in number as much as 14,227 million barrels, considered as the second highest gains in U.S. History.
 
February 8, 2017

Positive Reports Indicating Italy's Economic Recovery

Italy’s economy is performing well as it grew for the past three months signaling a stabilizing growth pace of the economy as statistics shown. Despite the uncertainty in the first half last year, the country was able to recover supported by the monthly report short-term economic forecasts by the national statistics agency ISTAT.

Results were further supported by the improving manufacturing sector, household purchasing power and higher investment. However, the consumer confidence index declines due to the current weak economic condition. On a brighter side, the business confidence has significantly advanced. This was greatly influenced by the manufacturing sector increased by 0.7% In November. Other sectors such as the foreign trade and and Household Consumption climbed by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively in the third quarter last year.

This remarkable results coincides with the expectations of the government and optimistic that this will lessen the fiscal adjustment needed from the European Union.
 
February 8, 2017

Euro Falls from Grace as Elections Increase EU Exit Concerns

The EUR dropped for the second consecutive day as the impending national elections increased concerns with regards to the fate of the eurozone. The euro dropped to its lowest levels in two months against the JPY following an onslaught of protectionist policies from various EU leaders who are pitching against themselves in the forthcoming European elections in the coming months. EU members are also very concerned with the German elections, since a lot of analysts are speculating that the eurozone might fall apart once Angela Merkel loses in Germany’s parliamentary ballot and Marine Le Pen wins in France’s presidential elections.
 
February 10, 2017

USD Rallies as Market Anticipates Trump’s Tax Policies

The USD traded within its session highs following Trump’s statement that his administration will soon be releasing updates with regards to its tax policies in the coming weeks, inducing some positivity in the market and leading to speculations that the US economy might benefit from fiscal stimulus and could also lead to an reignition of the Trump trade. The USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its place in its session highs and has created a ripple effect among other currency pairs after Trump’s officials stated that the currency devaluation issue will not be among the priorities listed in the impending meeting of Trump and Shinzo Abe.
 
February 13, 2017


Finance Minister Counters the Accusation Against ECB

The European Central has been accused of altering the Euro exchange rate and this is being negated by the French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. They are believed to have a goal in completing trading and attain the competitive policy goals by a significant U.S. authority saying that Germany gains an advantage over grossly undervalued Euro for personal gains.


Europe should still work harder to achieve former status prior to global financial crisis according to Sapin. Germany has to be more committed to restore into a better condition regarding its investments. At the same time, they are hopeful that the new president of the United States will recognize the significance of the European Union relationship with the United States.
 
February 13, 2017

Copper, Equities Rally as JPY Slumps


Asian stocks rallied across the globe as investors anticipated the release of data which will provide insights on the state of US consumer prices, as well as comments from certain Fed officials. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen dropped in value on Monday as a reaction to the surge in the value of the S&P 500 index last Friday. Chinese shares on the Hong Kong trading floor also recorded its highest winning streak in almost two months, while commodity producers received support from an increase in the value of both iron ore and copper.
 
Steinmeier is Germany’s Next President

The newly-elected president of Germany is Frank-Walter Steinmeier, he’s known to be the country’s foreign minister and now the 12th leader to serve the federal parliamentary republic. The 61-year old politician got 931 valid votes out of 1239 from the delegates of 16 different Germany’s states. There were 103 number of declines and 14 invalid votes.

Norbert Lammert, Bundestag president, proclaimed the final results which made the representatives respond a standing ovation excluding some members of the democratic party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD candidate got 42 votes only.

Leader of Christian Democratic Union and Chancellor, Angela Merkel said that she trust Steinmeier as he lead the nation during period of hardships and difficulties.

Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his congratulatory message to Steinmeier via telegram and further ask to take a Moscow visit. Wh
 
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