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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro was declining during the day, in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC minutes and at the time it took place, the single currency practically already took into account the expected tonality in the price. There were no surprises, the Federal Reserve expects further improvement in the labor market and does not show any worries about inflation.

As a result, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart continues to form (in the event of a stronger fall in the price, Marlin would go down more clearly). Nevertheless, the main scenario remains the development of the 1.1705 target level, and the slowness of the oscillator indicates the potential for a larger decline in the euro - to the second target level of 1.1640.

On a four-hour scale, the price reversed to the downside from the MACD indicator line. Here, too, there is still an opportunity to further the formation of convergence. But similar to the situation on the daily chart, the slowness of the oscillator towards a reversal preserves the potential for a deeper decline into the oversold zone.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for July 09, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD still remains vulnerable for a drop to the 1.1700/20 levels before pulling back for a meaningful counter trend rally. Until prices break above 1.1975 interim high, bears remain in a position to drag lower towards 1.1700 in the short term. As discussed yesterday, long term traders might hold short positions while short term traders might want to take profits around 1.1700.

EURUSD is seen to be trading around the 1.1832 level at this point in writing and is expected to turn lower towards yet another low below 1.1750 mark. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1975 while support comes in around the 1.1700 level respectively. Also note that prices are breaking below its 15 month old trend line support, which is quite bearish.

EURUSD medium term potential remains to the 1.1300 and 1.0636 level respectively. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of past rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 is also seen to be passing through 1.1300 levels hence probabilities for a bullish bounce remains high. At the moment, we shall watch out for a temporary pullback rally around the 1.1700 mark.

Trading plan:
Remain short, stop @ 1.2350, target @ 1.1300 and lower.

Good luck!

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 12, 2021

USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair correctively rose after it reached the target level. This rise was preceded by a five-day decline. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has slowed down and is ready to resume falling in case the price weakens.

The dollar, of course, still has room for growth. The main resistance on the daily chart is the embedded price channel line and the MACD indicator line (110.70). A reversal into a new wave of decline may occur before these lines are reached.

On the four-hour scale chart, the first resistance and the target of the correction is the nearest local extremum at 110.40. Above it is the MACD line, and in approximately the same area where it is located on the daily scale - 110.70. This circumstance also indicates the correction limit. Rising above the level, and settling above it, breaks the main scenario of a medium-term decline.

Moving below the target level of 109.80 (high on May 13) will trigger a move towards the target level of 109.20 (low on June 8).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 13, 2021

USD/JPY
The yen remains the most difficult currency in the last month, its fluctuations occur with a periodic change of drivers - it is the stock market, then the fluctuations of the US dollar. As a result, the yen has been trading in a wide range of 109.55-111.65 for a month and a half. Yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 0.35%, the dollar index rose 0.14%, which has already consistently pulled the USD/JPY pair up 23 points.

Now the price faces the task of rising above the daily MACD line at 110.74, then the way to the target level 111.39 will open. This mark (110.74) also coincides with the central line of the growing lilac price channel, so the subsequent growth may be above the first target level.

The price is struggling with the local target level of 110.40 on the H4 chart. Surpassing it will indicate an attack on the MACD line at 110.64. Consolidating above this indicator line will be a preparation for an attack on the daily MACD line (110.74). To restore the downward movement, the price needs to go below the level of 109.80, which is more difficult to do at the moment.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 14, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 32 points yesterday, which nevertheless showed an inclination towards a downward scenario.

The Marlin oscillator is still inside its own wedge, but the intention to get out of it (to the downside) is indicated by yesterday's movement. The first target at 0.7410 is the July 9th low, then the embedded price channel line at 0.7370.

The price settled below both balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator consolidated in the downward trend area on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for development according to the main scenario. Consolidating above the MACD line, above 0.7470, may once again encourage the price to test the price channel line in the 0.7517 area. Consolidating above it will cancel the main descending scenario.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of the S&P 500 for July 15, 2021

The S&P 500 index is now within striking distance of our long-term target at 4,444. At the same time we are seeing a clear loss of upside momentum indicating that continued upside progress will prove difficult. Short-term it will take a break below support at 4,139 to indicate that a top is in place and a larger corrective decline is in motion. A break below support at 4,035 will confirm that a five wave rally from the March 2020 low at 2,182 has completed and at least this rally now needs to be corrected. We do think that the ongoing wave 5 completes an even larger five wave rally back from March 2009 indicating an even larger corrective decline.

However, for now and as long as minor support at 4,139 is able to protect the downside we should look for a final pop to 4,444 to complete the ongoing impulsive rally from 2,182.

Trading recommendation:

Consider selling the S&P 500 index near 4,444 or upon a break below 4,139. If you are long the S&P 500 index tighten you stop to 4,139

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 23 points on Thursday, having not decided to retest the target level of 1.1855. The growth of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator inside its own channel has stopped, now it is possible to reduce it and exit the channel downwards. The first target of the euro is 1.1705 - the low on March 31.

The price has settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is declining in the negative zone – in the declining trend area. We are waiting for the price to fall further towards the specified goal.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Friday's report on retail sales in the United States for June exceeded expectations: the total volume showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of -0.4%, the core index added 1.3% (forecast 0.4%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, but the euro fell by only 7 points. But the mood kept falling, technical indicators support it.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly moving to the lower border of its own local rising channel. Exit from it to the downside will accelerate the euro's decline. The first target at 1.1705 is the March low.

The price and oscillator have formed triangles on the 4-hour chart. The synchronous output of the price and the oscillator from the triangles down can also set momentum for a downward movement. The signal level is Friday's low at 1.1792.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 20, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar hit its first bearish target at 0.7344 yesterday. Further supports and targets are close: 0.7295, 0.7244 (high on October 9, 2020), but such a move is also indirectly due to the potential convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily timescale (dashed line), which slows down movement and increases intraday volatility.

The price is holding on to the reached level on a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is turning up, and today a slight correction is likely after the previous three-day decline.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 21, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is slowly declining amid technical constraints - the price fluctuates between the adjacent price channel lines and below the target level of 0.7344, which is also located between these lines.

Overcoming yesterday's low at 0.7301 opens the nearest target at 0.7244. A price reversal from this level to the upside is possible under the influence of the emerging convergence with the Marlin oscillator. Potential correction may continue up to the MACD line. At 0.7500, it intersects with the embedded price channel line.

The price shows an intention to break through support at 0.7301 on the four-hour chart. The impetus for this was set by weak retail sales in Australia in May, which showed a decrease of -1.8%. The Marlin oscillator is turning down in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the aussie to move towards the specified goal.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 22, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro grew slightly not so much because of profit-taking (some players left the markets before today's European Central Bank meeting), but because of the emergence of risk appetite: S&P 500 0.82%, Euro Stoxx 50 1.78%, 5-year yield US government bonds increased from 0.685% to 0.738%. And if even on Monday-Tuesday the market was dominated by the opinion about introducing specifics into the monetary policy of the ECB, then yesterday the major market participants were no longer so specific in such forecasts and expectations.

On the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator continues to rise slowly in a narrow upward channel. The signal line has come very close to the zero line and, under favorable circumstances, is ready to turn down from it. In this case, the target is the level 1.1705 (March 31st low).

In order for the growth to develop, the price needs to overcome the first resistance at 1.1850. The path to this level is not very close, so the likelihood of wide range trading today and tomorrow is very likely. If the resistance holds, the price will go to the support at 1.1705. If the resistance does not resist, then the growth will continue to the second target at 1.1925.

Marlin entered positive territory on the four-hour chart. This is a sign of a probable price surge to the MACD line 1.1815 before the price falls in the main scenario.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2021

EUR/USD
The European Central Bank's meeting from yesterday partially justified the expectations of investors - it was announced that the super-soft policy could last a little longer than planned due to the weak recovery and the new threat of the coronavirus. Our forecast came true in that on Thursday we expected increased volatility of the single currency - the trading range was 74 points.

We expect increased volatility today as well, as the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has almost come close to the zero line and the market itself is tempted to go up from the technical framework. But the statistical likelihood of decisive growth is less, the main technical indicators are still bearish-dominant. The first target for the main scenario is 1.1705, the second target is 1.1640. If the price still manages to overcome the target level 1.1850 (Marlin will already be in the growth zone), then the growth may continue to the MACD line in the area of the target level 1.1925.

The price made a false exit above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of a subsequent downward movement. The Marlin Oscillator is on the edge of growth territory. We are waiting for the price to drop to the first target at 1.1705.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 6, 2021

GBP/USD
The British pound hit the first target (1.3883) on Friday. Now it should rise above this level, settling above it, and continue to rise to the second target at 1.4004, also determined by the embedded price channel line. The Marlin oscillator is rising, helping the price meet this target.

The trend is fully upward on the four-hour chart: the price is above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the price to settle above the level of 1.3883 and its further growth.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 7, 2021

We continue to look for renewed upside pressure through minor resistance at 153.48 to call for the next impulsive rally towards the next upside target seen at 159.75 to complete wave v/ of iii and set the stage for a temporary correction/consolidation in wave iv before the next rally higher.

Longer-term we are looking for a rally to at least 163.00 and possibly a lot higher than that, as a long-term rally towards 205 clearly is an option, but not a given fact. A a lot can still happen a cut the ongoing rally short near 163, but only time will show.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Ripple for September 8, 2021

Ripple completed a five wave rally in wave i with the test of 1.4162. We should now see a corrective decline in wave ii close to the 61.8% corrective target of wave i near 0.8560 before the next rally higher to at least 1.7600 and possibly even closer to the extension target for wave iii near 2.3226 takes place.

Ultimately. we are looking for a rally to 3.2000 in this impulsive sequence.

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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: TRADING PLAN FOR EURUSD FOR SEPTEMBER 09, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD has slipped toward 1.1800 mark since printing 1.1900 highs over the last week. The drop is corrective and bulls might be inclined to come back in control, pushing prices higher towards 1.2050 levels, going further. Probability also remains for a drop towards 1.1750 first, before resuming its rally. Either way, EURUSD is in a corrective wave from 1.1900/10 high.

EURUSD is seen to be trading close to 1.1810/15 mark at this point in writing and could be preparing to push higher towards 1.1870/80 mark in the immediate short term. Immediate price resistance is at 1.1910, while support comes in around 1.1660 mark respectively. The pair could drop toward 1.1750 to complete its gartley structure before resuming higher towards 1.2050 mark.

The overall structure remains bearish toward 1.1300 mark in the medium term. In the short term though, a counter trend rally towards 1.2050 remains possible though. Also note that 1.2030/50 is the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 1.2266 and 1.1660 respectively. High probability remains for a bearish turn if prices manage to reach there.

Trade Alan:
Potential to push towards 1.2050 against 1.1650. Good luck!

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for September 10, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD is consolidating within a tight range after dropping to a low of 1.1806 on Thursday. The pair is expected to push higher towards the 1.1865-70 zone during the day before finding resistance again. It is expected to slide towards 1.1750 in the next few trading sessions before bulls can resume higher to the 1.2050 level.

EURUSD is unfolding into a counter-trend rally toward 1.2050 in the near term before resuming lower towards the larger trend. Also note that the pair is carving a counter-trend within the counter trend and is expected to first drop toward 1.1750, then rally towards 1.2050 levels respectively. EURUSD is facing immediate resistance at 1.1900 while support is seen around 1.1800 levels respectively.

Overall wave structure remains bearish towards 1.1300 but medium term remains pointed higher to 1.2050-1.2100 zone. Also note that 1.2050 is near Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 1.2266 and 1.1660 levels respectively. Hence, probabilities remain high for a bearish reversal f prices manage to reach there.

Trading plan:
Potential to rally toward 1.2050 against 1.1660.
Good luck!

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 13, 2021

Technical Market Outlook
The GBP/USD pair has failed to break through the supply zone that was the key zone for bears. There might be a Double High price pattern made at the H4 time frame chart. The zone is still located between the levels of 1.3874 - 1.3886. The momentum is negative and the market conditions are overbought, so the bulls might not have a chance to move higher. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3807 and 1.3785.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4068
WR2 - 1.3979
WR1 - 1.3915
Weekly Pivot - 1.3815
WS1 - 1.3755
WS2 - 1.3649
WS3 - 1.3586

Trading Outlook:
The weekly time frame chart still shows, that the up trend is still intact and the corrective wave had terminated at the level of 1.3571. Only a sustained violation of the level of 1.3518 would trigger a bigger down move than a regular pull-back. The up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.4246 (high from 24.02.2021).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 14, 2021

We have seen the expected dip closer to 129.60 and EUR/JPY should now be ready to start the next impulsive rally higher to 134.24 and then towards the ideal target for wave 5/ closer to 135.42. Short-term we need a break above minor resistance at 130.23 to confirm that sub-wave ii of 5/ has completed and sub-wave iii is in motion towards 134.24 and then higher to 135.42.

Longer term we continue to look for much higher levels, but for now, just let's look for a break above minor resistance at 130.23 to confirm sub-wave ii has completed and sub-wave iii higher is in motion.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 15, 2021

Technical Market Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has been trying to move higher after the bounce from the level of 1.1774, but even after the breakout above the short-term trend line resistance the rally was capped and the price reversed back down again. Currently, the price is hovering around the level of 1.1804, that we have seen many times before. The market keeps making lower highs and lower lows, so the odds for another down move are high. The next target is seen at the level of 1.1774 (previous local low) and 1.1758 (61% Fibonacci retracement). The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1751.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1947
WR2 - 1.1912
WR1 - 1.1832
Weekly Pivot - 1.1824
WS1 - 1.1765
WS2 - 1.1741
WS3 - 1.1684

Trading Outlook:
The market is in control by supply that might push the prices lower towards the key technical support located at 1.1599. There might be a bounce form this level, but the last rally out of the Falling Wedge pattern has failed anyway. The up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021) only if bullish cycle scenario is confirmed by breakout above the level of 1.1909 and 1.2000.

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