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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 2, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3834 and made a local high at the level of 1.3850. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.3867 (61% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, if bulls fail to do so, the next target for bears is located at 1.3669 (recent swing low) and then at 1.3557 (weekly low from February 2021). The next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3850. Please notice the momentum is neutral and can turn again into negative territory any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4089
WR2 - 1.3984
WR1 - 1.3884
Weekly Pivot - 1.3780
WS1 - 1.3675
WS2 - 1.3568
WS3 - 1.3466

Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

EUR/USD

A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.

However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.

Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021

GBP/USD
The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.

The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro tried to continue the corrective growth yesterday, while the published minutes of the Federal Reserve gently made it clear that the central bank has gradually shifted its mood on increasing the rate. A black candlestick with a high upper shadow was formed at the end of the day. It can be interpreted as a reversal pattern in the current situation, especially with the Marlin oscillator turning to the downside. After the price settles below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, an "underline" will be created, afterwards the lower Fibonacci level is reached in 80% of cases. For the current situation, this is the initial 0.0%, that is, the 1.1700 target level becomes relevant again. The price is waiting for two intermediate levels on this path, from which a slight correction is possible: 1.1810, 1.1745.

The upward trend continues on the H4 chart. The first condition for a reversal would be for the price to settle below the 1.1855 level, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator will return to the zone of negative values, which, in fact, will become the first signal for a decline.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.

Black lines - Fibonacci support levels
Blue line - short-term support trend line

XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 12, 2021

EUR/USD
The eurozone reports that were released last Friday came out weak: Germany's trade balance reached 19.1 billion euros in February against expectations of 23.4 billion and 21.3 billion in January, German industrial production fell by 1.6% against expectations of growth by 1.6%, industrial production in France fell by 4.7% (forecast + 0.5%). The euro fell by only 12 points due to the reports. Perhaps the euro has become attached to the yields on government bonds, which slightly grew on Friday. But both bonds and the dollar are still ahead...

The Marlin oscillator is turning around its own resistance level at 0.0092. Let's consider the current moment on the four-hour chart:

The divergence works out its influence to the full extent- the signal line of the oscillator is embedded into the zone of negative values. After surpassing the April 8 low at 1.1861, the first target level (1.1810) opens. The second target (1.1745) opens behind it.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 13, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair bounce has been capped at 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3763. The market reversed as the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market conditions are still quite oversold, so if the level of 1.3763 is violated, then the bulls might extend the bounce towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at 1.3792. Please notice, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are still in control of the market and all the bounces are so far the counter-trend corrective in nature.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4080
WR2 - 1.4000
WR1 - 1.3827
Weekly Pivot - 1.3750
WS1 - 1.3579
WS2 - 1.3494
WS3 - 1.3340

Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro rose against macroeconomic data. The index of sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for the current month decreased from 74.0 to 66.3 while expecting growth to 77.2, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.6% in March against the expectation of 0.5%. Obviously, the reason lies in the decline in government bond yields. So 5-year US securities yield fell from 0.89% to 0.84%. The yield is falling for the second week in a row, and is now in the consolidation range of March 12-26, and this introduces an intrigue: will there be an upward reversal from it or a breakthrough to the downside?

The technical situation for the euro has become more uncertain than in the last two days. The price went above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, shifting the market's interest in buying, possibly with the intention to overcome the resistance of the MACD line at the levels of the highs on March 18 and 11 - 1.1990. Getting the pair to settle above the level may push it to rise to 1.2025, then to 1.2105 - to the correction levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of the movement from the January high to the March low. The Marlin oscillator has gone above its own resistance at 0.0092 and is now strengthening in growth. It is still far from the overbought zone.

The price moved up from the consolidation range on a four-hour timescale. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. The price clearly intends to test the first resistance at 1.1990 for strength. A reversal is possible only when the price has finally settled below the MACD line, approximately below the 1.1895 level.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.

Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).

On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.

A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2021

EUR/USD
The dollar stopped weakening yesterday. US retail sales in March showed an increase of 9.8% against the forecast of 5.0-5.8%. In addition, the weekly report of the Ministry of Labor on claims for unemployment benefits showed a decline from 769,000 to 576,000 (the forecast was 703,000) and industrial production grew by 1.4% in March with an increase in capacity utilization from 73.8% to 74.4%. The desire (or forecast) of a number of investment companies to see an increase in risk appetite is still not materialized. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.11%, but gold rose in price by 1.61%, the yield on 5-year government bonds fell from 0.86% to 0.81%. In the next week, the United States is placing debt obligations worth $227 billion, which will still increase the demand for the dollar.

On the daily chart, the price confirmed the reversal from the strong level (1.1990) at the point of its intersection with the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is turning down more clearly. At the very least, we are now waiting for a deep correction from the growth from March 31, possibly to the target level of 1.1810 (61.8% of this entire growing movement). At the most, we are waiting to recover the downward movement with targets below 1.1700.

The divergence has been confirmed on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1914, the price will confirm its intention to decline in the medium term.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Last Friday, the euro hit the resistance level of 1.1990 at the point where it coincides with the MACD indicator line on the daily chart and is declining this morning, reaching Friday's low. The Marlin oscillator is turning down. Perhaps this is a reversal to the 1.1810 target and to subsequent, lower target levels.

The technical complexity of the current moment on the H4 chart; the gap remains open and the divergence with the oscillator risks becoming double, and the double divergence will create a cross with an undefined target. You can even allow 1.2023 - the low on February 17.

But Marlin is still in the negative zone, so it may continue to fall, and the closing of the gap will be postponed indefinitely. But the price needs to settle below the MACD line for such a scenario, below 1.1930. In this case, the 1.1810 target will become relevant.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 20, 2021

GBP/USD
The pound soared 150 points yesterday, without any media reports about what happened. The optimism regarding the partial lifting of restrictions in England can hardly be taken as the main one. Nevertheless, the pound is determined, it has already crossed the MACD line, and after the price consolidates above the 1.4016 level (high on March 4 (checkmark), conditions are created for a prolonged attack on the February 24 high, to approximately the level of 1.4260.

The price has consolidated above the target level of 1.3955 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is slightly decreasing, removing tension, it seems, before the previous rally. But to confirm the signal, the price should settle above the reference level of 1.4016.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 21, 2021

EUR/USD The euro traded in a 60-point range yesterday, closing the day at the opening level. The price settled above the 50.0% Fibonacci level (daily). Now the price is ready to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.2105. Consolidating above it will entail another wave of growth to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2200. The trend breakdown will occur after the price settles below the MACD line, which is now just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

At the moment, there is no reversal situation on the four-hour chart. The growth is confident and rhythmic.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 22, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro mirrored the situation on Tuesday: the day closed at the opening level, only the pronounced shadow was lower this time. The opening and closing of the days occurs above the Fibonacci level of 50.0%, which speaks in favor of further growth. The nearest target is the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.2105. It is followed by 1.2200 at the Fibonacci level of 76.4%. The Marlin oscillator is directed to the downside, but it is not in the overbought zone, so this short decline is only a discharge of the oscillator before it grows further.

The price continues to rise on the four-hour chart. Marlin returned to the positive area. The two-day consolidation seems to be over, now we are waiting for it to move towards the specified goals.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term analysis on USDJPY

USDJPY has declined from 111 to 108 as expected after breaking out of the bullish channel. Price has stopped the decline right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and key short-term support. A bounce towards 109-110 is justified at this point in time. Price might make a new lower low towards 107.70 before bouncing higher.

Red line - support
Green lines - Fibonacci retracement
Yellow rectangle -pull back target
USDJPY has a lot of chances of a move higher back inside the yellow rectangle. Price is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and very close to the red trend line resistance. If price breaks below 107.70-107.50 then we should expect a deeper correction towards the next major Fibonacci retracement at 106 (61.8% retracement).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 26, 2021

EUR/USD This morning the euro reached its first target of 1.2105 at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The correction from the movement on January 6-March 31 is already quite deep, but the price does not even intend to stop. In any case, the Marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator, continues to move up on the daily chart. The growth target is now the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2200.

There is a sign of an impending divergence on the four-hour chart. To secure this, the price will need to settle below 1.2105.

Data on March orders for durable goods in the United States will be published in the evening. The forecast is 2.5%. The report will probably determine the price's further action. But even if the euro does not go to the second target at 1.2200, it will not be easy to form a reversal, since there is another 60 points (1.2050) before the MACD line, a departure under which will become a condition for a bearish reversal.

So, the main scenario is the upward price movement. The risk of a reversal involves working with reduced volumes of open positions.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 27, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro marked a downward turn after a correctional growth of 61.8% of the movement from January 6 to March 31. The first sign of it was when the divergence formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal should take place in two stages: consolidating under the MACD indicator line at H4 and settling under the same indicator line on the daily (1.1980).

The growth will likely recover after the price goes over yesterday's high at 1.2117. In this case, the target will be the 76.4% correction level at the price of 1.2200. We choose a price reversal and a further medium-term decline as the main scenario, since the price still develops in the global descending channel, which originates from July 2008.

So, we are waiting for the price to settle below 1.2060 and fall to 1.1980.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 28, 2021

EUR/USD The euro's situation has not changed over the past day. After an attempt to decline, this morning the price is found at the opening levels of Tuesday. Obviously, investors were waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting, which will happen today. The Marlin oscillator dropped a little more on the daily chart, the target along the MACD line at 1.1980 began to stand out more visually.

The price could not settle under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator got stuck on the border of the bears' territory. Pushing the price to settle below 1.2070 opens the target at 1.1980.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for April 29, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen moving higher despite the several candlestick patterns warning about the potential local trend termination. The recent rally made the approach towards the level of 1.2149, just below the lower level of the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2178. Please notice, the market conditions on the daily time frame chart are now overbought, so the chances for another wave up are decreasing and the pull-back or correction might start to develop soon. The next key technical support is seen at the level of 1.2011 and 1.1953.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2320
WR2 - 1.2206
WR1 - 1.2167
Weekly Pivot - 1.2057
WS1 - 1.2010
WS2 - 1.1890
WS3 - 1.1850

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is still in progress, but if the trend line on the daily time frame chart is violated, then the up trend might be considered done. The corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions.

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