Forex News from InstaForex

Dollar Borders on 13 ½-year peak, Lifted by Rate Hike Outlook

The dollar nears a 13 ½-year high, boosted by upbeat U.S. housing data which further sealed expectations for a Federal Reserve raise in rates by year-end as well as more tightening in 2017. The greenback was at 100.98 against a basket of six major currencies.

Latest U.S. data has shown that home resales in the previous month climbed to its highest level in over 9 ½ years. The dollar has increased broadly in the past couple of weeks, buoyed by expectations that Donald Trump's administration will raise fiscal spending. The greenback was flat against the Japanese yen at 111.07. The euro last traded at $1.0631, having reached a near one-year low of $1.0569 during the previous week.

Fed funds futures have shown a 94 percent likelihood that the Fed will increase rates in December, according to CME Group data.

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Japan Manufacturing Sector Slows In November - Nikkei

The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Nikkei showed on Thursday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.1.

That's down from 51.4 in October, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the individual components, output, new orders, new export orders, employment, input prices and stocks of purchases all were in expansion territory.

Backlogs of work, stocks of finished goods and quantities of purchases contracted.

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Dollar Strengthens after Positive U.S. Data

The dollar strengthened following the latest U.S. upbeat data that has shown economic growth early in the fourth quarter, raising the chances of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy. The dollar index climbed 0.1 percent to 101.79.

Investors are implying in almost a 100 percent likelihood of a December Fed rate hike, according to CME FedWatch. Latest U.S. data has shown new orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods rebounded in October due to increasing demand for equipment and machinery. The dollar rose 0.1 percent at 112.56 against the Japanese yen.

The euro brushed off the positive reading on business activity and fell 0.1 percent to $1.0540.

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Fxwirepro: Yen Hits Lowest Level Since Late March After Japan’s Core Cpi Datal

USD/JPY is currently trading around 113.67 marks.

It made intraday high at 113.79 and low at 113.18 levels.

Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 112.35 levels.

A daily close above 113.30 will take the parity higher towards key resistances around 114.55, 115.32 and 117.25 levels respectively.

On the other side, a sustained break below 113 will drag the parity down towards key supports around 112.35, 110.85, 109.72, 106.72, 106.03 and 104.96 levels respectively.

Japan’s November CPI, overall Tokyo increase to 0.5 % vs previous 0.1 %.

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Japan’s Consumer Prices Extends Decline in October

Japan's consumer prices logged its eighth consecutive month of annual declines in October, highlighting how far the country is from overcoming deflation.

Official government data showed core consumer price index fell 0.4% in October year-on-year after a 0.5% decline in September. The October figures also matched estimates. Meanwhile, overall CPI edged up 0.1% as a rise in fresh food prices offset the continued decline in energy costs.

Prices of fresh food rose 11.4% in October due to calamities and unfavorable summer weather, which attributed almost 0.5 percentage point to the increase in total CPI. However, energy costs fell 7.9%, pulling down inflation by around 0.6 percentage point.While declining prices of gasoline and electricity continued to pressure inflation rates, almost 60% of all items composing the index saw an increase in prices, data revealed.

Core-core Inflation Index, which does not include the volatile prices of food and energy, advanced 0.2% in October from a year-prior period, higher than the forecast of a 0.1% rise. However, soft domestic activity raises doubt on the possibility of a sustained recovery.

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Fxwirepro: Singapore Dollar Gains in Early Hours of Asia, Intraday Bias Remains Bearish

USD/SGD is currently trading around 1.4239 marks.
It made intraday high at 1.4283 and low at 1.4236 levels.
Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at 1.4345 marks.
A sustained close above 1.4280 will test key resistances at 1.4345, 1.4443, 1.4481 and 1.4556 levels respectively.
Alternatively, a consistent close below 1.4280 will drag the parity down towards key supports at 1.4201/1.4128/1.4046/1.3972/1.3819/1.3775/1.3704/1.3646/1.3587/1.3510/1.3462/1.3391/1.3347/1.3313/1.3302/ 1.3271 levels.
Important to note here that 20D, 30D and 55D EMA heads up and confirms the bullish trend in a daily chart. Current downside movement is short term trend correction only.
We prefer to go short on USD/SGD around 1.4250 with stop loss at 1.4345 and target of 1.4201/1.4128.

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Gold Edges Up From 9-½ -Month Low as Dollar Eases

Gold climbed after slipping to a 9-½ month low during the previous session, as the U.S. dollar retreated after reaching near 14-year highs last week. Spot gold climbed 0.55 percent at $1,189.43 per ounce.

U.S. gold futures was up 0.9 percent to $1,189.0 an ounce. Oil prices slipped on concerns that producer countries might not come up with a final agreement to reduce output, pressuring U.S. stock futures and Asian shares. Gold premiums in China rose to the highest in almost three years in the week to Nov. 25 on uncertainty regarding a supply shortage that traders claim were because of Beijing's attempt to restrict import licenses.

SPDR Gold Trust said that its holdings declined 0.73 percent to 885.04 tonnes on Friday.

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Fxwirepro: South Korean Won Opens Onshore Trade at 1,169.5 Per U.s. Dollar, Faces Strong Support at 1,162

USD/KRW is currently trading around 1,167 levels.
It made intraday high at 1,170 and low at 1,166 marks.
Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at 1,172 levels. A daily close above 1,172 will drag the parity higher towards key resistances at 1,182, 1,196, 1,201, 1,209 (20D EMA) and 1,220 (March 03, 2016 high) marks respectively.
On the other side, a sustained close below 1,172 will test key supports at 1,162/1,152/1,146/1,132/1,127/1,117/1,111/1,101/1,089/1,078/1,063/1,044 levels respectively.
Seoul shares open down 0.05 pct at 1977.10.
We prefer to go short on USD/KRW around 1,168, stop loss at 1,172 and target of 1,160.

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Wall Street Retreats As Discretionary Stocks Pullback

U.S. stocks retreated for their worst performance in almost a month, pressure was added by the pullback in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors. Investors have placed bets that President-elect Donald Trump's policies might improve domestic growth, reduce corporate taxes and raise infrastructure spending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.28 percent to 19,097.9. The S&P 500 slipped 0.53 percent to 2,201.72 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.56 percent to 5,368.81. Three of the top four decliners on the S&P 500 were banks, as Wells Fargo lost two percent, Bank of America was down 2.7 percent while Citigroup fell 2.3 percent. Amazon dropped 1.7 percent at $766.77, and was the largest decliner on the Nasdaq. Time Inc rose 17.6 percent to $16 following the New York Post report that the publisher rejected a takeover bid from investor Bronfman Jr.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best measure of fear in the market, traded higher, near 13.2.

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Fxwirepro: Aud/nzd Stabilizes Below 1.05 Mark After mixed Housing Data from Australia

AUD/NZD is currently trading around 1.0485 marks.
Pair made intraday high at 1.0501 and low at 1.0481 marks.
Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds immediate resistance at 1.0532 marks.
A sustained close above 1.0532 will drag the parity higher towards key resistances at 1.0618/1.0655/1.0751/1.0823/1.0976 (January 2016 high) /1.1062 (30D EMA) /1.1123/1.1298/1.1317 levels respectively.
Alternatively, a consistent close below 1.0479 will take the parity down towards key supports around 1.0446, 1.0333, 1.0237, 1.0184, 1.0109 and 1.0053 marks respectively.
Australia’s October building approvals decreases to -12.6 % (forecast 1.5 %) vs previous -8.7 %.
Australia’s October private sector credit increases to 0.5 % (forecast 0.4 %) vs previous 0.4 %.
Australia’s October housing credit increases to 0.6 % vs previous 0.5 %.
Australia’s October private house approvals decrease to -3.4 % vs previous 2.3 %.

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Dollar Stalls Ahead of OPEC Meeting

The dollar fluctuated against the yen and euro, as traders prepared ahead of the OPEC meeting that could possibly turn financial markets and pressure the U.S. currency. The greenback was steady at 112.430 against the Japanese yen while the euro was flat at $1.0648.

The dollar index was little changed at 100.98 after declining 0.4 percent the previous day. The U.S. currency has recently stalled, as Treasury yields showed signs of peaking for now amidst purchasing by investors' month-end portfolio rebalancing. This is probably why the dollar failed to capitalise on latest positive data that showed U.S. third quarter GDP and much-stronger-than-expected November consumer confidence figures. The Canadian dollar was little changed at C$1.3432 a dollar.

The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7485 AUD, within hitting a 12-day peak of $0.7497 the previous day. The pound was fixed at $1.2490 GBP after climbing 0.6 percent the day earlier.


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Australia Capital Spending Slips 4.0% In Q3

Capital spending in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2016, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$28.030 billion.

That missed forecasts for a fall of 3.0 percent following the 5.2 percent decline in the three months prior. On a yearly basis, capex tumbled 13.7 percent.

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Oil Surges as OPEC Strikes Production Cut Deal

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OPEC members managed to reach a deal to cut oil output, causing crude prices to jump more than 8% after months of struggling with declines due to market uncertainty regarding the capability of the group to reach an agreement.

The deal was made possible when Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose disputes blocked the deal which looked to end the oil glut persisting in the market, reached a compromise. Iran was allowed to raise its production, while Saudi Arabia conceded to take the lion's share of the cuts.

The oil producer cartel announced that it would reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day from its current level of 33.6 million bpd beginning January 2017. It also expects producers who are non-OPEC members, including Russia, to join the cuts adding up to 600, 000 bpd.

The cuts were bigger than anticipated and equals around 1% of total global production. Oil prices soared and shares of oil companies surged more than 10% after the agreement was confirmed.

U.S. crude rose $4.21 or 9.3% and traded at $49.44 per barrel. Meanwhile, global benchmark Brent crude rose $4.09 or 8.8% and settled at $50.47.

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Japan Monetary Base Climbs 21.5% In November

The monetary base in Japan was up 21.5 percent on year in November, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - coming in at 417.657 trillion yen.

That follows the 22.1 percent spike in October.

Banknotes in circulation added 4.7 percent on year, while coins in circulation gained 1.0 percent.

Current account balances surged an annual 28.2 percent in November, including a 26.8 percent jump in reserve balances.

The adjusted monetary base soared 26.0 percent to 412.167 trillion yen, after rising 17.9 percent a month earlier.

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Dollar Edges Down after Solid November Gains

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies, with traders booking gains after a positive November on speculation of a stronger U.S. economy under the administration of Trump and ahead of the government payrolls report. The dollar index was down 0.4 percent to 101.06.

The pound climbed as much as nearly 1.6 percent to a three-week peak against the U.S. currency of $1.2696. The dollar retreated from a previous nine-month high against the yen at 114.82, before slipping 0.4 percent to 114.03 yen in late trading. The euro firmed after a report that the European Central Bank will continue its bond buying beyond next March and has considered to send a formal signal next week that the asset purchase program will sometime end. The dollar's weak beginning in December mirrored higher U.S. Treasury yields after a positive data on manufacturing and construction spending.

The dollar index hit a 13-1/2-year high of 102.05 the previous week, and for November it advanced 3.1 percent. The euro rose 0.6 percent at $1.0649.

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China Services PMI Jumps To 53.1 In November - Caixin

The services sector in China continued to expand in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Caixin showed on Monday with a PMI score of 53.1.

That's up from 53.4 in October, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The survey also showed that the composite index was unchanged at 52.9.

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British Government Unveils $634 Billion Infrastructure-Investment Plan

The U.K. mapped out its infrastructure-investment plan, disclosing 500 billion pounds or $634 billion worth of projects slated to be launched in the following years.

Government investment constitutes around 40% of the infrastructure-investment pipeline after British Finance Minister Philip Hammond detailed plans for a National Productivity Investment Fund in November estimated to amount to 23 billion pounds. Infrastructure projects included are the Thames Tideway Tunnel, smart meters and upgrading the A14 highway located in eastern England.

Funding from the private represents more than half of the pipeline to 2020-2021, aiding in delivering projects varying from transport and internet connectivity to flood defenses and housing, according to the Treasury.

In a statement, Treasury Chief Secretary David Gauke said the spending plan is a clear indication that the government is intent on ensuring that U.K.'s infrastructure is up to date.

Enhancing productivity using targeted investments was the major goal laid out by Hammond during his Autumn Statement as he readies the British economy from any Brexit-induced shocks.

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Australia Q3 Current Account Deficit A$11.358 Billion

Australia's seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed to A$11.358 billion in the third quarter of 2016, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - owing to higher export commodity prices.

That follows the A$15.943 billion shortfall in the three months prior.

The balance on goods and services marked a deficit of A$4.682 billion following the A$7.381 billion shortfall in Q2.

Net exports of GDP eased 0.2 percent, unchanged from the previous quarter. The net goods and services surplus fell A$871 million (61 percent) to A$561 million.

Exports of goods and services climbed A$2.860 billion (4 percent) and imports of goods and services gained A$162 million. The primary income deficit fell A$1.946 billion (24 percent).

Australia's net international investment position was a liability of A$1,043.3 billion at 30 September 2016, increasing 1 percent on the revised 30 June 2016 position of A$1,037.9 billion.

Australia's net foreign debt liabilities increased A$0.8 billion to a net liability position of A$1,048.5 billion.

Australia's net foreign equity assets tumbled A$4.6 billion (47 percent) to a net asset position of A$5.2 billion.

News are provided by InstaForex
 
Oil Prices Retreat as Supply Rises Ahead of 2017 Production Cut

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading as crude production in almost all major export regions despite a planned production cut by OPEC and Russia, raising fears that an oil glut that has persisted in the market for more than two years might extend into its third year in 2017.

International Brent crude oil futures traded down 39 cents at $54.44 per barrel, declining 0.7% from their last finish. Meanwhile, the U.S. WTI crude futures were down 47 cents or 0.9%, at $51.32 a barrel.

Traders said the decline in prices were caused by the increasing production from OPEC and Russia. The producer cartel's production has posted another record high in the previous month, scaling to 34.19 million bpd in November from the 33.82 million bpd in October. On Friday, Russia said its average daily production reached 11.21 million bpd last month, its highest daily output in nearly three decades.

Their combined output alone attributed for almost half of total global oil demand, which is currently at the 95 million bpd level.

The alarmingly high production figures comes just after OPEC and Russia struck a historic deal to cap output in 2017 which caused oil prices to rally, causing investors to worry that the planned cut will not be big enough to dent the oil glut.

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Fxwirepro: Eur/krw Rejects Key Resistance at 1,260 Mark, Downside Limited

EUR/KRW is currently trading around 1,253 mark.
Pair made intraday high at 1,255 and low at 1,252 levels.
Intraday bias remains slightly bearish till the time pair holds immediate resistance at 1,254 mark.
A sustained close above 1,254 will take the parity higher towards key resistance around 1,260, 1,269 and 1,272 marks respectively.
Key supports are seen at 1,248, 1,242, 1,238, 1,227, 1,222 and 1,210 marks respectively.
Seoul shares open up 0.29 pct.
We prefer to go long on EUR/KRW around 1,250, with stop loss at 1,242 and target of 1,260/1,268/1,272.

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