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Asian stock indices decline after robust rally

Today, Asian indices declined by up to 3%. In general, they showed slight declines. The Korean KOSPI decreased by 0.29%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indices dropped by 0.63% and 0.59% respectively. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index were among the top losers, plummeting by 1.77% and 2.9% respectively. Japan's stock exchanges are closed today because of the holiday but yesterday Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by 0.06%.

Asian indicators traditionally follow the US indices, which showed a decline of up to 3.3%. This was due to the release of the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise the rate by 0.75%, to 3.75-4%.

Although the increase coincided with experts' forecasts, investors fear an economic downturn, as the rate reached a record high for 14 years. In addition, the Fed chairman's statement warned them that the central regulator had no plans to reduce the pace of rate hikes so far. Thus, the risk of a recession is getting higher but the Fed is going to continue its policy in order to bring inflation under control. Softer monetary policy, according to the head of the Fed, will be discussed either at the next meeting in December or as early as next year.

According to the fresh data, China's PMI declined last month to 48.3 points from September's level of 48.5 points. If this indicator falls below 50 points, it indicates a decrease in business activity. Experts note that such a value was due to the country's strict policy against the spread of the coronavirus.

Due to the fact that Lenovo Group managed to increase its net profit by 6% in the second quarter of the fiscal year, while its revenue decreased by 4%, its share price declined by 0.8%.

CanSino Biologics, Inc.'s stock price plummeted by 26.5% after the company announced that it was not expected to increase profits from sales of China's first inhalation vaccine against coronavirus due to the high level of competition and an overall decline in demand.

Following this statement, other representatives of the pharmaceutical industry also showed declines. Securities of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Ltd. fell by 10.1%, and Sino Biopharmaceutical, Ltd. dropped by 5.9%.

Also among the components of the Hong Kong Hang Seng index, Netease, Inc. slipped by 6.7%, Sands China, Ltd. lost 6.1% as well as Alibaba Group Holding, Ltd. fell by 6%.

Among the components of the Korean KOSPI, Samsung Electronics dropped by 0.8%, as well as Hyundai Motor lost 2.1%.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index also showed declines. BHP lost 3.1% and Rio Tinto declined by 2.3%.

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Where is the USD/JPY ceiling?

The dollar is back on horseback and aims to continue the rally on all fronts, including against the yen. But how far can USD/JPY go if there are intervention barriers on its way?

The dollar is sprinting

The US central bank once again raised interest rates by 75 bps, but signaled that it may be approaching a tipping point in its aggressive anti-inflationary campaign.

Such a dovish remark literally undermined the dollar's position in all directions. However, a little later, the mood in the market changed: dollar bulls received a calming pill from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The official dispelled traders' concerns about a possible slowdown in the pace of tightening. He categorically stated that it was too early to discuss a slowdown and hinted at higher final interest rates in America.

In light of Powell's latest comments, the market has revised its forecast for the US interest rate upwards. Investors now expect the figure to peak at 5.15% by June next year.

Strengthening hawkish sentiment has served as a great driver for the yield of 10-year US government bonds. Yesterday, the figure jumped to 4.16%, which contributed to a sharp rise in the dollar.

On Friday night, the DXY index rose 0.8% and tested the highest level in almost two weeks at 113.15.

This put the greenback on track for a weekly gain. Since Monday, the dollar has already strengthened by 2% against its main competitors. This trend has not been seen since September.

Last night, the USD showed a parabolic gain against the pound (+2%), and also performed well against the euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, rising against all currencies by 0.7%.

As for the yen, the greenback grew the least against it - by 0.2%. Its rise was limited by the heightened risk of intervention by the Japanese government.

Forecast for USD/JPY

On Friday morning, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again repeated his warning to currency speculators. He stated that the authorities would not put up with a sharp weakening of the yen and would take all necessary measures in the event of a new attack on the JPY.

The increased threat of intervention from the Ministry of Finance of Japan did not come as a surprise to traders. Many anticipated this development, given the current fundamental picture, which points to a further increase in monetary divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Fed.

Recall that at the last seven-day period, the BOJ again confirmed its commitment to ultra-soft policy and left interest rates in negative territory.

This was the first negative signal for the yen. The second already came this week, when Powell made it clear that the final level of interest rates in the US could be higher than previously expected.

Double pressure leaves no chance for the JPY, so the Japanese government has no choice but to be fully armed.

Of course, bulls are well aware that the effect of future interventions is likely to be as short-lived as the previous ones. Despite this, they still do not dare to play with fire.

According to some analysts, this situation may drag on. Fear of intervention will keep the USD/JPY pair in deep consolidation for at least a few more days until some compelling trigger appears on the horizon.

It is probably not worth hoping that the major will receive a strong impetus from the US economic data. Most likely, fresh statistics on inflation will inspire dollar bulls to new exploits.

If the market does not see signs of a slowdown in consumer price growth in November, this will be another argument for the Fed in favor of further aggressive tightening.

"Sustained inflation may indeed force the Fed to raise the final level of rates significantly higher than the initial estimate – up to 5% and even more," MUFG Bank strategists argue. In this case, we expect USD/JPY to rise from its current level of 148 to 155, which, apparently, will be its ceiling.

Experts are also considering a more optimistic scenario, in which the quote may rise to the highest level since April 1990 at 160.35. This will only happen if there is talk of an even higher US final rate range of 5.5% to 6%.

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US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.26%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 rose 1.36%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.28%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 5.43 points (6.01%) to close at 95.83. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 2.52 points (5.41%), ending trading at 49.01. Caterpillar Inc rose 4.37% or 9.58 points to close at 228.84.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.54 points or 4.47% to end the session at 139.79. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 5.46 points (1.00%) to close at 538.15, while Apple Inc shed 0.27 points (0.19%) to end at 138. 38.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which rose 11.53% to 35.20, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, which gained 8.69% to close at 210.62, as well as Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 8.55% to end the session at 41.02.

The least gainers were Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which shed 12.87% to close at 10.43. Shares of Live Nation Entertainment Inc shed 7.25% to end the session at 70.88. ServiceNow Inc lost 6.12% to 361.95.

Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite Index today, the leaders of growth were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 70.26% to 180.00, Sentage Holdings Inc, which gained 34.54% to close at 4.09 , as well as shares of Digimarc Corporation, which rose 29.35% to close the session at 18.95.

The least gainers were Pulmonx Corp, which shed 60.94% to close at 4.82. Shares of Funko Inc lost 59.38% and ended the session at 7.92. Quotes of Sensus Healthcare Inc decreased in price by 51.23% to 6.34.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2275) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (839), while quotes of 85 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2070 companies rose in price, 1658 fell, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.96% to 24.55, hitting a new monthly low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 3.30%, or 53.90, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 5.08%, or 4.48, to $92.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 4.24%, or 4.01, to $98.68 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.16% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY shed 1.12% to hit 146.60.

Futures on the USD index fell 1.91% to 110.65.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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The dollar is building muscle, but fears a loss in the long run

In the short and medium-term planning horizons, the US currency will remain afloat, although from time to time it shows a decline. However, traders and analysts are worried about the long-term prospects of USD, as the greenback is losing its position in the global financial market.

The dollar fell at the beginning of this week, remaining weak on Tuesday, November 8, amid the strengthening of the European and Chinese currencies. Later, the greenback "built up its muscles" and partially won back its positions, rising in price against the euro and the yen. Recall that last Friday, November 4, the dollar index (USDX) lost over 2%. This is one of the largest intraday declines in the last 20 years, experts emphasize. In a similar situation, dollar bulls capitulated, failing to give momentum to the US currency.

However, the greenback does not give up, trying to bypass the euro and other competitors of the financial market. On the morning of Tuesday, November 8, the key EUR/USD currency pair began with the consolidation of parity and headed above the 50-day moving average. According to analysts, the upward trend in the EUR/USD pair remains in force, while the pair has reached 1.0001.

The EUR/USD pair started the current week with steady growth, but further recovery is questionable. According to experts, in the short term, the EUR/USD pair can test a three-month high of 1.0200. The pair has currently restored the bullish dynamics and is cruising near parity.

Analysts pay attention to how the euro's dynamics are unstable compared to the dollar. This is facilitated by the growth of negative sentiment about the possible onset of recession in the eurozone. A decrease or slowdown in a number of fundamental indicators that affect the EUR in the long term adds fuel to the fire.

According to analysts, the euro's movements depend on the dollar's dynamics, geopolitical news and divergence between the strategies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The US central bank's recent decision to raise rates and the likelihood of a prolonged tightening of the monetary policy on its part is the main obstacle to a steady recovery of the EUR/USD pair. According to economists, the inflation rate in the US fell slightly in October, but any unscheduled rate hike will have negative consequences for the euro. The prerequisites for such a forecast were the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the current macro data justify a significant rise in interest rates for the next year.

This week, market participants expect annual inflation in the US to slow down to 8%. Recall that in September, this figure was 8.2%. To date, inflation has retreated from the peak value of 9.1%, but remained above the Fed's target level of 2%. Against this background, experts are confident that the Fed will raise the interest rate again in December, but only by 0.5 percentage points.

According to previous forecasts, by the end of 2022, interest rates in the United States could reach 4.5%, and by the beginning of 2023 – 4.75%. However, Powell's recent speech forced the financial markets to reconsider these decisions. According to preliminary calculations, the possible peak of the federal funds rate in the United States will be 5%. This will allow the greenback to strengthen, but weaken the euro, experts are certain.

The US currency currently remains under pressure, as market participants continue to evaluate the Fed's recent statements, which indicate difficulties in the process of normalization of monetary policy. According to Scotiabank's currency strategists, USD will remain stable in the short term, but in the long term it is expected to undergo a "significant correction". According to experts, the current dollar rally has been "unnecessarily prolonged", and this may provoke its collapse. However, the USD will not fall until the Fed's tightening cycle ends, analysts believe. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.02%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.02% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index grew 0.56%, the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 0.49%.

Amgen Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 15.37 points or 5.55% to close at 292.39. Quotes Boeing Co jumped by 4.71 points (2.86%), closing at 169.62. American Express Company rose 2.19% or 3.22 points to close at 150.20.

The worst performers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.30 points or 0.78% to end the session at 38.29. The Walt Disney Company was up 0.53 points (0.53%) to close at 99.90, while Chevron Corp was down 0.27 points (0.15%) to close at 185. 34.

The top performers in the S&P 500 index today were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which surged 19.13% to 251.73, Expeditors International of Washington Inc, which gained 9.06% to close at 104.40, as well as Welltower Inc, which increased by 8.22% to end the session at 66.51.

The least gainers were Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, which shed 13.68% to close at 93.57. Shares of Medtronic PLC lost 6.25% to end the session at 80.19. Quotes of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc decreased in price by 4.96% to 91.41.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Taskus Inc, which rose 37.22% to hit 22.01, GrowGeneration Corp, which gained 35.05% to close at 4.47, and Skywater Technology Inc, which rose 31.60% to end the session at 11.37.

The least gainers were Bioventus Inc, which shed 57.51% to close at 3.00. Shares of R1 RCM Inc lost 49.76% and ended the session at 7.41. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 43.36% to 1.28.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1834) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1256), while quotes of 125 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,894 stocks fell, 1,771 rose, and 259 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 4.89% to 25.54.

Gold futures for December delivery added 2.15%, or 36.20, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.83%, or 2.60, to $89.19 a barrel. Brent futures for January delivery fell 2.39%, or 2.34, to $95.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD climbed 0.56% to hit 1.01, while USD/JPY fell 0.73% to hit 145.55.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.46% to 109.49.

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.95%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.95%, the S&P 500 fell 2.08%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 2.48%.

Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 0.09 points (0.09%) to close at 101.59. Quotes of McDonald's Corporation fell by 0.61 points (0.22%) to end trading at 277.79. Procter & Gamble Company lost 0.33 points or 0.24% to close at 136.48.

The least gainers were Walt Disney Company, which fell 13.15 points or 13.16% to end the session at 86.75. Chevron Corp was up 4.00% or 7.41 points to close at 177.93 while Dow Inc was down 3.97% or 1.97 points to close at 47.68. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Akamai Technologies Inc, which rose 6.19% to hit 89.08, Gen Digital Inc, which gained 6.01% to close at 22.92, and also shares of Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc, which rose 5.67% to end the session at 403.49.

The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 13.16% to close at 86.75. Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation shed 9.22% to end the session at 67.93. Quotes Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd fell in price by 8.74% to 15.77.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 212.75% to 12.51, Outset Medical Inc, which gained 29.90% to close at 14.90, and also shares of Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 29.60% to close the session at 1.62.

The least gainers were Clovis Oncology Inc, which shed 71.62% to close at 0.28. Shares of Telos Corp lost 68.84% and ended the session at 3.44. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 56.45% to 0.56.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2539) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (564), while quotes of 97 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,848 stocks fell, 900 rose, and 221 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.15% to 9/26.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.44% or 7.60 to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 3.77%, or 3.35, to $85.56 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.15%, or 3.00, to $92.36 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.62% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.52% to hit 146.41.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.75% to 110.37.

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US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 3.70%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 3.70% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 rose 5.54% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 7.35%.

Salesforce Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 14.24 points or 10.02% to close at 156.30. Quotes of Apple Inc rose by 12.00 points (8.90%), ending trading at 146.87. Home Depot Inc rose 24.95 points or 8.70% to close at 311.70.

Shares of McDonald's Corporation led the decline, losing 1.91 points (0.69%) to end the session at 275.88. Merck & Company Inc was down 0.30 points (0.30%) to close at 101.89 while Amgen Inc was up 0.47% or 1.36 points to close at 291. .01.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Invesco Plc, which rose 17.85% to hit 18.75, Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which gained 17.83% to close at 50.62, and shares of T. Rowe Price Group Inc, which rose 16.36% to close the session at 124.65.

The least gainers were McKesson Corporation, which shed 4.12% to close at 370.32. Shares of Cardinal Health Inc shed 2.79% to end the session at 77.93. Quotes of Altria Group decreased in price by 2.19% to 44.22.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 156.19% to hit 0.26, SHF Holdings Inc, which gained 85.78% to close at 3.79, and also shares of EpicQuest Education Group International Ltd, which rose 73.79% to close the session at 1.79.

The least gainers were Apyx Medical Inc, which shed 60.45% to close at 1.74. Shares of Veru Inc lost 53.56% and ended the session at 6.97. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 50.89% to 5.50.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2830) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (347), while quotes of 80 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,100 companies rose in price, 694 fell, and 216 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 9.81% to 23.53, hitting a new monthly low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 2.68%, or 45.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.55%, or 0.47, to $86.30 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.90%, or 0.83, to $93.48 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.03% to 1.02, while USD/JPY shed 3.97% to hit 140.62.

Futures on the USD index fell 2.55% to 107.65.

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Gas in Europe jumped in price by 20%

The exchange price of gas on the ICE Futures platform soared above $1,150 per thousand cubic meters on Monday. The cost of the December futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose by 10% and by 11:32 London time reached $1168. Already in the evening, the cost of gas in Europe soared by 20%, by 18:46 London time they reached the level of $1250.

But prices in the spot market are much lower. The value of the contract with the delivery "day ahead" (November 14) was $716.6. The average price of spot contracts in November is even lower - $605.8.

The rise in prices occurred amid a sharp cooling in some European regions. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly over the weekend and early next week in parts of Northern Europe and Germany, down to freezing temperatures. This Maxar Technologies forecast suggests that winter is coming and that the commodity market is entering a strong phase.

But in addition to the forecasts, sad for European inhabitants, energy prices are also supported by the prospect of limiting supplies from Norway, one of the largest gas suppliers to Europe. The fact is that work at the Asgard field was stopped in some places due to identified technological problems. The message about these problems came to the world media from the Norwegian international energy company Equinor, which is the owner of Asgard. Last Sunday, a fire broke out in the platform's transformer, due to which production on it was stopped, and the personnel were evacuated. For this reason, daily nominations have decreased by about 7%. aggravated by the fact that there is no talk about the timing of recovery in the media.

On top of that, on Monday at a large gas processing plant in Norway (gas is being prepared there for deliveries to the UK), personnel were evacuated and even the police came. Details of what happened there have not yet been received. The operator of the Norwegian GTS only said that this unpleasant incident did not disrupt the planned flow of gas to Europe, although it clearly increased the anxiety of buyers.

Recall that due to fears of a ban on the import of Russian energy resources in March, stock gas quotes updated their historical highs for four consecutive days. The price record was reached on March 7 at $3892. In the period April-May, the cost of gas began to fall, but rose again in the summer months. In August, the average settlement price began to exceed $2,450, and this was a new record for the entire history of the operation of gas hubs in Europe, that is, since 1996.

This autumn, gas quotes finally began to decline. The average settlement price of the nearest futures in September was at the level of $2093, and in October it was already $1377. This is probably due to the high level of occupancy of gas storage facilities in Europe. By the way, the total level of blue fuel in underground storage facilities in Germany is already 99.89%. In any case, this is what the German Federal Network Agency said. And at the same time, they noted that it is still impossible to exclude the worsening of the situation.

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.63%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.63%, the S&P 500 fell 0.89%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 1.12%.

Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.39 points or 2.44% to close at 100.35. Quotes of Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.66 points (1.57%), ending trading at 171.91. Visa Inc Class A rose 1.86 points or 0.91% to close at 206.86.

The least gainers were Walmart Inc, which shed 4.19 points or 2.94% to end the session at 138.39. Home Depot Inc was up 2.55% or 8.02 points to close at 306.92 while Dow Inc was down 2.24% or 1.19 points to close at 51. 95.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 5.21% to hit 107.76, PENN Entertainment Inc, which gained 4.59% to close at 37.63. as well as Moderna Inc, which rose 4.57% to close the session at 179.03.

The least gainers were Hasbro Inc, which shed 9.86% to close at 57.16. Shares of Bath & Body Works Inc. lost 8.17% and ended the session at 33.06. Quotes of SVB Financial Group decreased in price by 6.73% to 219.76.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Opiant Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 111.58% to hit 20.10, Freight Technologies Inc, which gained 113.15% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Toughbuilt Industries Inc, which rose 72.27% to end the session at 3.79.

The least gainers were Satsuma Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 83.22% to close at 0.68. Shares of Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc lost 43.96% to end the session at 2.55. Quotes of Nuwellis Inc decreased in price by 40.00% to 0.12.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2188) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (956), while quotes of 111 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,257 companies fell in price, 1,538 rose, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.37% to 23.73.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.30%, or 5.30, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 4.24%, or 3.77, to $85.19 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.57%, or 3.43, to $92.56 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.21% to 1.03, while USD/JPY advanced 0.77% to hit 139.86.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.53% to 106.73.

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USD/JPY: the dollar maneuvered and fished

A storm hit the foreign exchange market on Tuesday. Strong volatility was observed in all dollar majors, including the USD/JPY pair. However, in the end, the US currency got away with it.

Yen under dovish pressure

Yesterday turned out to be very eventful in terms of information and therefore pretty exhausted traders. The main weather vane of the foreign exchange market, the dollar, reacted extremely sharply to all events and changed its direction literally after every news.

The biggest price fluctuations on Tuesday were observed on the USD/JPY chart. At the start of the day, the dollar gained a confident upper hand over the yen, as it was under pressure from weak Japanese economic data.

The GDP statistics published yesterday for the third quarter showed a sharp decline in the indicator. On an annualized basis, the country's economy shrank by 1.2%, while growth of 1.1% was expected.

Such a serious drop in the pound further convinced the market that in the near future the Bank of Japan will not retreat from its dovish strategy.

To support the fragile economy, the central bank will continue to implement its unprecedented stimulus programs and keep interest rates in negative territory.

This means that the monetary divergence between Japan and America, where further rate hikes are expected, will continue to grow. This scenario is negative for the yen.

USD's hawkish foundation is bursting at the seams

As for the positive factors for the Japanese currency, the most important catalyst remains the slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the United States. The growth of speculation on this topic last week helped the JPY to strengthen significantly against the greenback.

Yesterday, yen bulls received another argument in favor of the fact that the Federal Reserve's transition to less hawkish actions is more real than it seems.

After unexpectedly soft data on consumer inflation in the US, which came out last week, the same weak report on producer prices followed.

Last month, the PPI indicator grew by 8% in annual terms. This is less than the forecast estimate (8.3%) and lower than the value recorded in September (8.4%).

– It is quite obvious that the overall price pressure in America is moving downward, and the Fed will most likely decide to slow down, – said currency strategist Karl Schamotta.

Another weakening of the hawkish expectations of the market again hurt the dollar. Immediately after the release of the producer price index, greenback tested a new 3-month low at 105.35.

The dollar fell in all directions, but most of all against the yen. Literally overnight, the USD/JPY pair plunged by more than 150 points, to the level of 137.62.

An unexpected driver for the dollar

However, the dollar-yen asset did not have to be a loser for long. It recovered its losses fairly quickly, springing back up to the area of 139.50.

The greenback was supported by the Empire State index of industrial activity from the Fed Bank of New York. It turned out that in November the indicator increased from -9.1 to 4.5, exceeding economists' expectations.

Also, the greenback was strengthened by comments from members of the Fed. Several officials stressed yesterday that the central bank's work to reduce inflation is still far from being completed.

But the US currency received the strongest impetus from the growth of geopolitical tensions. On Tuesday evening, Western media reported the fall of Russian missiles on the territory of Poland, resulting in the death of two people. At the same time, Moscow denied its involvement in the incident.

Now the markets are afraid that a blow to Poland, which is a member of NATO, could lead to another escalation of the conflict between the West and Russia. Against this background, the dollar, which is considered the best safe haven currency, is showing growth in all directions.

On Wednesday morning, the dollar index rose 0.19% to 106.63. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair jumped by 0.4% and was trading near the 140 level.

Analysts draw attention to the fact that in the short term, the further dynamics of the major will depend on the news headlines around the emergency in Poland.

Also, its rate may be affected by the release of data on the volume of retail sales in the United States and the speeches of the Fed speakers.

The technical picture for the USD/JPY pair

Despite the fluctuations of the DXY index, the dollar-yen pair formed a double bottom figure on the chart, which led to a bullish reversal of the asset.

The major rose above the 20th and 50th EMA by 139.55 and 139.90, respectively. This significantly enhances the upward filters.

Also, at the moment, the relative strength index of the RSI is trying to move into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. In case of successful completion of this scenario, dollar bulls will feel even greater strength.

If bulls manage to break above Monday's high of 140.80, this could lead to a breakout of the double bottom and significantly fuel the dollar. Then traders will focus on the 142.49 mark.

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US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.12%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.12%, the S&P 500 was down 0.83% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.54%.

McDonald's Corporation was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.67 points or 1.74% to close at 272.51. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 8.51 points or 1.69% to close at 511.52. Home Depot Inc rose 0.96% or 2.98 points to close at 314.91.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.95 points or 4.29% to end the session at 155.12. Intel Corporation was up 3.84% or 1.18 points to close at 29.53, while Dow Inc was down 2.11% or 1.09 points to close at 50.51. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were TJX Companies Inc, which rose 5.19% to hit 79.02, Campbell Soup Company, which gained 3.89% to close at 50.71, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 3.83% to end the session at 71.76.

The least gainers were Advance Auto Parts Inc, which shed 15.06% to close at 156.24. Shares of Carnival Corporation shed 13.71% to end the session at 9.63. Quotes of Target Corporation decreased in price by 13.14% to 155.47.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 106.29% to hit 0.21, Qurate Retail Inc Series B, which gained 45.90% to close at 10.41 , as well as shares of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 36.33% to close the session at 3.79.

The least gainers were shares of Dlocal Ltd, which lost 50.71% to close at 10.46. Shares of Brainsway Ltd lost 31.56% and ended the session at 2.19. Quotes of Cuentas Inc decreased in price by 28.00% to 0.25.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2104) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1012), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,616 companies fell in price, 1,142 rose, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.75% to 11/24.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.04%, or 0.65, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery fell 1.83%, or 1.59, to $85.33 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.29%, or 1.21, to $92.65 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.43% to 1.04, while USD/JPY advanced 0.15% to hit 139.49.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.13% to 106.15.

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.02%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.31%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.35%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Cisco Systems Inc, which gained 2.20 points or 4.96% to close at 46.59. Merck & Company Inc rose 2.38 points or 2.38% to close at 102.31. Apple Inc rose 1.93 points or 1.30% to close at 150.72.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 5.43 points or 3.50% to end the session at 149.69. The Walt Disney Company rose 2.66% or 2.50 points to close at 91.45 while American Express Company shed 1.27% or 1.93 points to close at 150. .64.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Bath & Body Works Inc., which rose 25.18% to 38.97, Gap Inc, which gained 5.56% to close at 12.71., as well as shares of Qorvo Inc, which rose 5.25% to close the session at 97.70.

The least gainers were West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, which shed 7.57% to close at 221.93. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd shed 6.77% to end the session at 16.40. Paycom Soft quotes fell 5.73% to 318.34.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ardelyx Inc, which rose 40.98% to hit 1.72, CytomX Therapeutics Inc, which gained 32.23% to close at 1.60, and shares of Cuentas Inc, which rose 28.00% to end the session at 0.32.

The least gainers were shares of Inotiv Inc, which fell 56.97% to close at 6.82. Shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd lost 46.28% and closed the session at 2.31. Quotes Singularity Future Technology Ltd fell in price by 45.93% to 1.13.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1996) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1109), and the quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,280 companies fell in price, 1,467 rose, and 258 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.75% to 23.93.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.70%, or 12.40, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery dropped 4.23%, or 3.62, to $81.97 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.08%, or 2.86, to $90.00 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.23% to 1.04, while USD/JPY rose 0.46% to hit 140.18.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.37% to 106.55.

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US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.59%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.01%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading, up 14.69 points or 2.85% to close at 530.00. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.20 points (2.58%), closing the session at 47.79. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.92 points or 1.88% to close at 104.23.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 1.10% to end the session at 148.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 0.95% or 0.38 points to close at 39.75 while Chevron Corp was down 0.60% or 1.10 points to close at 182. .99.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Ross Stores Inc, which rose 9.86% to hit 107.59, Gap Inc, which gained 7.55% to close at 13.67, and shares of Lincoln National Corporation, which rose 4.37% to close the session at 37.73.

The least gainers were Live Nation Entertainment Inc, which shed 7.85% to close at 66.21. Shares of Fortinet Inc lost 3.66% to end the session at 52.16. Diamondback Energy Inc lost 3.44% to 156.22.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were AGBA Acquisition Ltd, which rose 50.67% to hit 6.78, Paxmedica Inc, which gained 37.42% to close at 2.13, and shares of Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc ADR, which rose by 32.91%, ending the session at around 1.05.

Shares of Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc were the biggest losers, losing 35.85% to close at 3.83. Shares of Bit Origin Ltd lost 29.80% and ended the session at 0.15. Quotes of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 28.13% to 2.76.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1884) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1211), while quotes of 138 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1985 companies rose in price, 1772 fell, and 237 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.38% to 12/23.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.66%, or 11.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 1.73%, or 1.41, to $80.23 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 2.17%, or 1.95, to $87.83 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.36% to 1.03, while USD/JPY rose 0.13% to hit 140.37.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.25% to 106.86.

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Cryptocurrency market continues to fall

Bitcoin started Tuesday morning by moving sideways, as the coin traded at $16,134.

According to cryptocurrency price tracking website CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, bitcoin's highest price was $16,246, while its lowest was $15,599.

At the same time, on Monday, bearish sentiment prevailed in the cryptocurrency market and BTC updated weekly lows below $16,000.

Experts believe that bitcoin fell mainly due to the decline in U.S. stock indices on Monday. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.39%, the NASDAQ Composite fell by 1.09%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%.

Since the beginning of 2022 analysts increasingly began to emphasize the high level of correlation between the U.S. securities market and virtual assets amid tense expectations of both of the consequences of the geopolitical conflict in eastern Europe and the further steps of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Earlier, Arcane Research analysts already stated that bitcoin's correlation to tech stocks has climbed to highs not seen since July 2020.

In addition, economists of analytical platform TradingView said that the correlation of the cryptocurrency market with the U.S. stock market in the past quarter reached 70%.

Altcoin market
Ethereum, bitcoin's main competitor, also started Tuesday with sideways movement. The coin was trading at $1,128.

As for cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by capitalization, Polygon (+2.32%) had the best results, while Ethereum (-1.43%) had the worst.

According to last week's results, Polygon coin (-13.99%) topped the list of the top ten strongest digital assets.

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of data on virtual assets, in the last 24 hours the Huobi Token (+11.13%) was in first place among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets in terms of growth, while the UNUS SED LEO (-13.91%) coin had the worst results.

According to the results of the past week, the digital asset NEAR Protocol (-21.46%) showed the worst results among the top hundred of the strongest digital assets, while Litecoin (+7.63%) showed the best results.

According to CoinGecko, as of Tuesday morning, the global cryptocurrency market cap failed to settle above the important key level of $850 billion and stands at $834.845 billion.

Since November 2021, when the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeded the $3 trillion level, it has more than tripled.

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US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.18%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.18% to a 3-month high, the S&P 500 rose 1.36% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.36%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was Intel Corporation, which gained 0.88 points or 3.04% to close at 29.82. Salesforce Inc rose 4.40 points or 3.04% to close at 149.25. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 1.20 points or 2.96% to close at 41.79.

The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 1.37 points or 1.40% to end the session at 96.21. Amgen Inc was up 1.11 points (0.39%) to close at 287.05, while Boeing Co was down 0.44 points (0.25%) to close at 172.50. .

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Best Buy Co Inc, which rose 12.78% to 79.88, Agilent Technologies Inc, which gained 8.08% to close at 156.86. as well as shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.72% to close the session at 109.68.

The least gainers were Dollar Tree Inc, which shed 7.79% to close at 152.37. Shares of Rollins Inc lost 6.14% to end the session at 39.53. Quotes of Medtronic PLC decreased in price by 5.30% to 77.93.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Cosmos Holdings Inc, which rose 86.93% to hit 0.33, Palisade Bio Inc, which gained 81.08% to close at 4.02, and also shares of Motorsport Gaming Us LLC, which rose 51.11% to close the session at 6.80.

The least gainers were Eqonex Ltd shares, which lost 32.81% to close at 0.14. Shares of WiSA Technologies Inc lost 21.56% and ended the session at 0.20. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 22.94% to 4.87.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2345) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (761), while quotes of 110 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2259 companies rose in price, 1542 fell, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.79% to 21.29, hitting a new 3-month low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.07%, or 1.15, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for January delivery rose 1.41%, or 1.13, to $81.17 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 1.22%, or 1.07, to $88.52 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.62% to hit 1.03, while USD/JPY shed 0.65% to hit 141.20.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.63% to 107.05.

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Fed considers decelerating rate hike pace. Will US dollar slow down?

The European currency managed to outperform the US dollar by the end of the week. Following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, USD significantly declined. Meanwhile, the euro managed to get a head start and use the situation to consolidate its positions.

On Thursday, November 24, the US dollar fell considerably against other major currencies, especially against the euro. The decline was caused by increased risk appetite in the markets, which followed the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for November. In this situation, the euro rallied strongly, trying to recoup its earlier losses. Early on Thursday, EUR/USD was trading near 1.0435, advancing from its previous level of 1.0395.

On Wednesday, November 23, the Fed published the minutes of its November policy meeting, which indicated that the regulator plans to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in the near future. This year, the Fed increased its benchmark rate six times. Most analysts (76%) expect the Fed to raise its interest rate again in December to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% from the current 3.75%-4%. This rate hike is expected to be smaller than the previous ones.

As a result, the US currency has lost some of its gains. Disappointing macroeconomic data from the US also contributed to the drop of USD. The US dollar has come under strong bearish pressure after these reports. According to November data, the S&P Global Services PMI in the declined stronger than expected. At the same time business activity in the US service sector fell at an accelerated pace, with the S&P Global Services PMI dropping to 46.1 from 47.8 a month ago. The drop was attributed to weakening consumer demand and decreased volume of new orders, which hit the lowest level since May 2020.

Furthermore, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slid down below 50 points in November. Analysts recorded a significant drop in business activity in the US manufacturing sector, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropping to 47.6 points from the previous 50.4 points. Falling output in the US exacerbated the decline. "In this environment, inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession," Chris Williamson, lead economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said.

Fed policymakers are concerned about the weaker US labor market. The regulator considers the situation in the US labor market to be a key policy gauge, along with inflation, and uses it when deciding on its monetary policy. A decline in the US labor market is a signal to the Fed that it is time to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Over the past week, the number of jobless claims in the US increased to 240,000. This trend has persisted since the end of September 2022, analysts say.

The number of initial claims in the US hit the highest level since August 2022, well above the 225,000 claims forecasted earlier. At the same time the number of continuing claims rose to the highest point since March 2022 and stood at 1,551,000.

Analysts have noted that the US labor market has begun to reverse, which would give strong support to EUR/USD. Such a situation is favorable for the stock market, but detrimental for the US dollar, as it implies the Fed would soften its hawkish stance.

In the current situation the US dollar, which briefly retreated, took a pause, just like the Fed, which plans to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Analysts believe that USD will gather its strength and test its highs again in the near future. The US currency is likely to be successful in this scenario.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY GDP, GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DUE

Quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results from Germany are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Germany's statistical office Destatis is slated to issue detailed GDP data for the third quarter. According to preliminary estimate, the economy had expanded 0.3 percent sequentially.

In the meantime, the market research group GfK is set to release Germany's consumer sentiment survey results. The consumer sentiment index is forecast to rise to -39.6 in December from -41.9 in November.

At 2.30 am ET, employment data is due from Switzerland.

At 2.45 am ET, the French statistical office INSEE publishes consumer sentiment survey results. The consumer sentiment index is seen at 83 in November versus 82 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, October producer prices figures are due from Spain. Also, unemployment data is due from Hungary.

At 4.00 am ET, business and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Italy. The business confidence index is forecast to fall to 99.6 in November from 100.4 in October. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment index is seen at 91.0 versus 90.1 a month ago.

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American stock indices are changing in different directions

There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely to be lower than usual, experts say. On Thursday, the exchanges did not work because of the public holiday - Thanksgiving Day.

Meanwhile, a number of important indicators will be published in the near future, including revised data on changes in US GDP in the third quarter, as well as data on the state of the labor market in November. In addition, the country begins the season of active shopping before the holidays.

Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:02 GMT+2 increased by 0.4% and reached 34333.97 points.

Among the components of the index, the top gainers were Home Depot Inc, up 1.8%, UnitedHealth Group up 1.4% and 3M Co. - by 1.2%.

The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.06% - up to 4029.69 points.

At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.39% since the market opened and amounted to 11241.63 points.

Stock quotes for retailers Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. decrease respectively by 0.2% and 0.8% at the beginning of trading.

Amazon.com Inc. price fell 1.1% on reports that employees at the online retailer's warehouses around the world, including the US, Germany and France, are planning protests on Friday demanding higher wages.

Shares of Ford Motor fell 0.3% on news that the company is recalling more than 634,000 SUVs worldwide due to malfunctions.

Tesla's value fell 1.2%. The company announced that it is recalling about 80,000 electric vehicles in China due to problems with software and seat belts.

In addition, Apple Inc. papers are getting cheaper. - by 1.6%, Nike Inc. - by 0.6%, Intel Corp. - by 0.5%.

At the same time, the share price of Chevron Corp. grows by 0.3%. According to media reports, the United States is preparing to grant this company a license to produce oil in Venezuela. Chevron will regain partial control of oil production in Venezuelan fields, in which the company has retained stakes through joint ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

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GOLD REBOUNDS ON DOLLAR PULLBACK

Gold rebounded on Tuesday, after having fallen around 1 percent in the previous session in the wake of hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

Spot gold climbed 0.8 percent to $1,754.76 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.8 percent at $1,753.40.

The dollar fell against its rivals today as optimism surrounding China's reopening offset rate-hike fears.

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back despite U.S. Fed officials James Bullard and John Williams reiterating their hawkish stance on further rate hikes.

Euro zone government bond yields fell broadly after inflation in Spain and in Germany's most populous state came in below expectations.

Financial markets ae excited about some sort of reopening in China, apparently to quell public anger against COVID-19 curbs.

China reported a slight dip in new COVID-19 infections and also stepped-up support for the country's property sector, further aiding risk sentiment.

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CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI FALLS TO 48.0 IN NOVEMBER - NBS

The manufacturing sector in China continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.0. That missed expectations for a reading of 49.0 and was down from 49.2 in October. It also moved further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The report also showed that the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 46.7 from 48.7 in October, while the general PMI dropped to 47.1 from 49.0.

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