Forex News from InstaForex

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German PPI

Destatis will release German producer prices for February at 3:00 am ET Wednesday.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro held steady against the greenback and the yen, it rose against the pound. Against the franc, it fell.

The euro was worth 126.61 against the yen, 1.1342 against the franc, 0.8560 against the pound and 1.1347 against the greenback as of 2:55 am ET.

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Australia Jobless Rate Sinks To 4.9% In February


The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - beneath expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the January reading.

The Australian economy added 4,600 jobs in February, shy of forecasts for the addition of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 38,300 jobs in the previous month.

The participation rate was 65.6 percent, below expectations for 65.7 - which would have been unchanged from a month prior.

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Japan Manufacturing PMI Unchanged At 48.9 In March - Nikkei

The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract at a steady pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.9.

That's unchanged from the February reading and it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, there were further production cutbacks amid weaker new order inflows, while business confidence remained below the long-term average.

"Further struggles for Japanese manufacturers were apparent at the end of Q1, with latest flash PMI data showing a sustained downturn. Slack demand from domestic and international markets prompted the sharpest cutback in output volumes for almost three years," said IHS Economist Joe Hayes.

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The yen got wings, next stop $ 108.5

The fall of the yield curve below zero for the first time since 2007 stirred up the financial markets. The indicator, showing the difference between 10 and 3-year treasuries, is a reliable harbinger of a recession with a time lag of 12-18 months. Its inversion pushed players to active sales of shares. The losses of the S & P 500 amounted to 1.5%, and two new topics appeared on the market, fueling traders' interest in protective assets, such as the yen.

The sharp change in the rate of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the year contributed to the rapid rally of US stock indices. The stock market prepared to close the quarter with the best result in nearly 30 years. However, it looks unnatural when macroeconomic statistics deteriorate and stocks rise. The growth of the US economy in the first quarter, will slowdown to less than 1% according to estimates of the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. hus, Morgan Stanley suspects that October-December GDP may be adjusted from 2.6% to 1.8% in quarterly terms. Divergence between economic reports and stock indicators cannot last forever.

The situation is similar throughout the world. Thus, the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector of China, Japan, and the eurozone is below the critical level - 50, which indicates a slowdown in global GDP growth. Meanwhile, European stocks are ahead of their American counterparts, and the global MSCI is increasing. The naked eye can see that the market is overheated, which means it's time to pay attention to the safe haven assets. A 1.5% increase in the Japanese yen last week is a further evidence of this.

The national currency of Japan was under the "press" for quite some time. Its growth was hindered by such factors as high risk appetite, low rates of the world debt market and volatility. Inversion of the US yield curve provoked carry-traders to close positions, increased demand for funding currencies, and also caused the USDJPY rate to depreciate.

Among the most obvious fears of the market is the excessively "soft" position of the Fed. There was a too sharp change of tone. In December, the regulator allowed three series of rate increases, and now it does not plan any policy tightening. Perhaps, officials of the regulator do not agree on something, for example, a speedy recession. That is why the yield curve and went into the red zone.

Safe haven assets, as well as the yen, will be supported by the growing risks of the subsequent correction of the S & P 500 and increased volatility. The situation is heightened by rumors about Theresa May's resignation and the possible escalation of trade conflicts. Thus, the USDJPY pair may well move to the level of $ 108.5.

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New Zealand Keeps Official Cash Rate Unchanged At 1.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday kept its Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1.75 percent for the 16th straight meeting.

The decision was in line with expectations following a 0.25 percent rate cut in November 2016.

The central bank has pared a collective 0.50 percent from its benchmark in the last 25 months, lowering the rate in six of the last 22 meetings after six straight sessions with no change.

Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the likely direction of the next OCR move is down, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted.

Employment is near its maximum sustainable level, the bank said. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.

The global economic outlook has continued to weaken, in particular key trading partners including Australia, Europe, and China. This weaker outlook has prompted central banks to ease their expected monetary policy stances, placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

Domestic growth slowed in 2018, with softness in the housing market and weak business investment contributing.

"We expect ongoing low interest rates, and increased government spending and investment, to support economic growth over 2019. Low interest rates, and continued employment growth, should support household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure, housing, and transfer payments also supports domestic demand," Orr said.

As capacity pressures build, consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.

The balance of risks to this outlook has shifted to the downside, the bank said. The risk of a more pronounced global downturn has increased and low business sentiment continues to weigh on domestic spending. On the upside, inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximizing sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation," Orr said.

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May will leave in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal

The British Parliament, taking control of the Brexit process, hopes to find a way out of the impasse. On Wednesday, lawmakers will explore alternatives to the prime mnister's project through a series of so-called "demonstrative" votes. The Theresa May Agreement is still a promising option. In addition, there were rumors that she would leave her position as prime minister in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal.

Voting will begin at 19:00, the results are expected by 21:00 London time. It is possible that the ministers will need more time to choose an option they prefer. In this case, the meeting will continue on Monday. Voting may not provide the result that MPs are counting on, but the fact that they have united and challenged the government is already a huge breakthrough.

Meanwhile, the pound, which won back losses against the background of traders' belief in a positive outcome of Brexit, is waiting for the results of a new vote.

Here is what leading strategists wrote:
Credit Agricole CIB
"Despite the fact that political uncertainty is likely to continue, our long-term view remains constructive - the pound will rise to $1.39 by September."
Newton Asset Management
"There is a possibility that MPs will not come to any of the final options, which will further confuse the situation."

European Council President Donald Tusk, who spoke on Wednesday at the European Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg, said that the British should retain the right to revise Brexit plans and be given the time to do so, that is, agree to a lengthy delay. This means that the UK will participate in European elections.

Results that may follow a series of votes:
Theresa May's proposal that already failed twice will unlikely be passed. Nevertheless, some who oppose the prime minister's unpopular deal and supporters of the "hard" scenario, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, said that they could change their mind and vote in favor. In this scenario, the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit will decrease, which contributes to the sterling's immediate strengthening against both the dollar and the euro. Although the "hard" Brexit was eliminated twice, legally it remains as the "default" scenario if no agreement is reached by April 12.

The UK remains in the customs union. This will allow the country to conduct free trade, while a single market will be closed. It may also mean that Britain will have to maintain some form of freedom of movement of citizens throughout the eurozone.

One of the versions of Theresa May's proposal is the Malthouse deal. Here, the Irish "backstop" is replaced by "technical solutions", which are currently not defined.

The idea of a second referendum remains.

The simplest option is to abolish Article 50. It is unlikely for it to receive a greater support in the House of Commons. Deputies fear that in this way they will ignore the will of the British, expressed in a referendum in 2016.

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Japan Retail Sales Add 0.2% In February

Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in February, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That missed expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 1.8 percent decline in January.

On a yearly basis, retail sales advanced 0.4 percent - again missing expectations for 1.0 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

Sales from large retailers tumbled an annual 1.8 percent, missing forecasts for a fall of 1.3 percent following the 3.3 percent slide a month earlier.

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EUR/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

EURCAD is approaching our first resistance at 1.5033 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur to our major resistance at support at 1.4925 (horizontal swing low support). RSI (34) is also approaching resistance and ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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Australia Building Approvals Surge 19.1% In February

The total number of building approvals in Australia jumped a seasonally adjusted 19.1 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at 17,074.

That was way above forecasts for a fall of 1.8 percent following the 2.5 percent gain in January.

On a yearly basis, building approvals sank 12.5 percent - but that also beat expectations for a fall of 27.0 percent after tumbling 28.6 percent in the previous month.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 3.6 percent in February, while private sector dwellings excluding houses surged 64.6 percent. The value of total building approved rose 15.4 percent in February.

The value of residential building rose 24.7 percent, while the value of non-residential building rose 2.1 percent.

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Australia Has A$4.801 Billion Trade Surplus

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$4.801 billion in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That beat expectations for a surplus of A$3.70 billion and was up from A$4.549 billion in January.

Exports were flat on month at A$39.833 billion. Non-rural goods rose A$127 million, while non-monetary gold fell A$142 million (7 percent) and rural goods fell A$44 million (1 percent). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at A$10 million. Services credits rose A$136 million (2 percent).

Imports fell 1.0 percent to A$35.032 billion.

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Industrial Production

Destatis will publish German industrial production for February at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro fell against the yen, it held steady against the rest of major counterparts.

The euro was worth 125.39 against the yen, 1.1227 against the franc, 0.8564 against the pound and 1.1229 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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Japan Has Y2,676.8 Billion Current Account Surplus

Japan had current account surplus of 2,676.8 billion yen in February, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 2,633.5 billion yen following the 600.4 billion yen surplus in January.

Exports were down 1.9 percent on year to 6,307.0 billion yen, while imports skidded an annual 6.6 percent to 5,817.8 billion yen.

The trade surplus came in at 489.2 billion yen, shy of expectations for 591.3 billion yen but up from the 964.8 billion yen deficit in the previous month.

The adjusted current account showed a surplus of 1,957.6 billion, beating forecasts for 1,920.9 billion yen and up from 1,833.0 billion yen a month earlier.

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Japan Producer Prices Add 0.3% In March

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in March, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - exceeding expectations for 0.2 percent and unchanged from the February reading.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 1.3 percent - again topping forecasts for 1.0 percent and up from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Export prices added 0.8 percent on month and 0.2 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices jumped 1.6 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

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Japan M2 Money Stock Gains 2.4% On Year In March

The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.4 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - coming in at 1,012.7 trillion yen.

That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month's reading.

The M3 money stock climbed an annual 2.1 percent to 1,344.7 trillion yen - also unchanged from a month earlier and matching forecasts.

The L money stock advanced 2.4 percent on year to 1,794.0 trillion yen, up from the 2.1 percent increase in February.

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