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Australia Business Confidence Slows In February - NAB

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Business confidence in Australia ebbed in January, the latest survey from National Australia Bank revealed on Tuesday with an index score of +9.

That's still positive, which means that optimists outnumber pessimists - although it's down from the downwardly revised +11 in January (originally +12).

Business conditionals picked up steam as the index climbed to +21 from the downwardly revised +18 in the previous month (originally +19).

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Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.6% In February

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.6 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.

That was shy of expectations for 0.78 percent, which would have been unchanged from the January reading.

On a monthly basis, prices added 0.2 percent after sliding 0.6 percent in January.

Individually, prices were higher for leasing and rental. They were down for advertising, transportation and architectural services.

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UK Household Spending Touches 6-Year Low in 2017

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Household spending weakened to its lowest annual growth for six years in 2017 amid Brexit-spurred inflation, with borrowing soaring and family savings plunging to a record low.

According to the Office for National Statistics, economic growth slowed to 0.4 percent in the final three months of last year, down from 0.5 percent in the third quarter as weaker household spending took its toll.

The ONS revised upgrowth for the year as a whole to 1.8 percent from the initial estimate of 1.7 percent, but this was still the lowest since 2012.

It leaves the UK with the lowest growth among the G7 economies at the end of 2017 as it enters the final year of its membership of the European Union.

The quarterly national accounts data showed Britons turned to debt to support spending in the face of last year's surging inflation, which outstripped meager wage growth.

The proportion of total income saved by households dropped to 4.9 percent in 2017, its lowest level since records began in 1963, the ONS said.

Overall household spending dropped the previous year to 1.7 percent, which was the lowest annual growth since 2011, according to the ONS.

In the fourth quarter, the current account deficit shrank to £18.4 billion, or 3.6 percent of GDP, down from £19.2 billion in the previous three months.

Net trade – exports less imports – made its largest contribution to full-year growth since 2011, the ONS reported.

Economists said there would be some relief on the way this year for households as wages are expected to start rising faster than inflation, which should help maintain growth in 2018.

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Fed’s Brainard Flags High Valuations Even after Stock Correction

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Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said that even with this year's correction, equities and other assets are still high in valuation by historical standards.

In a speech shortly after the stock market closed and pared some of the deep losses incurred from Monday, Brainard became the latest U.S. central bank official to voice caution regarding the level of the nine-year-old-bull run in the stock market.

Brainard said that the valuations in a broad set of market appears elevated in relation to historical norms, even after pricing in recent movements.

Price tags on multi-family homes and commercial real estate properties have also increased, while capitalization rates, have hit historical lows, she added.

Aside from stocks and real estate, the Fed official also issued a warning regarding cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, which have observed big price declines this year after its astronomical surge in 2017.

She also said there are few signs that cryptocurrencies would pose a widespread threat to the financial system. She also noted that corporate bond yields are low, while spreads on high-yield bonds over Treasuries are close to the low-end of their historical range.

Along with her warnings regarding possible over valuations in financial markets, Brainard said Fed policy has helped curb the type of excessive risk-taking that resulted in the financial crisis of 2008.
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The Federal Reserve has been gradually tightening policy, raising the benchmark lending rate six time since December 2015, as it looks to prevent the economy from overheating.

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U.S. Private Payrolls Rise in March

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U.S. private payrolls grew sharply in March as hiring increased across the board, which indicates a strong labor market that continues to support economic expansion.

Labor market momentum was also highlighted by a recent report that showed solid gains in employment in the services industries in March even though a sharp decline in new orders weighed on growth in the sector.

The Labor Department will publish its closely watched employment report on Friday.

The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 241,000 jobs in March after rising 246,000 in February.

The ADP report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics. It said construction companies hired 31,000 workers in March and manufacturers added 29,000 jobs to their payrolls. Employment in the services sector increased by 176,000 jobs.

That was corroborated by the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing survey, which showed the ISM's employment sub-index rising to a reading of 56.6 in March from 55.0 in February.

The increase in services industry employment came despite the ISM non-manufacturing index falling 0.7 point to a reading of 58.8 as a measure of new orders declined 5.3 points. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

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U.K. Economy Weighed Down by the ‘Beast From the East’ Snowstorm

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Heavy snow and weak consumer demand weighed on British services businesses in March, which grew at the slowest rate since just after the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016, a survey showed. However, the 'Beast from the East' may not be enough to stop the Bank of England from pushing another interest-rate increase.

The IHS Markit/CIPS services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 51.7 in March from February's reading of 54.5, its lowest reading since July 2016.

Britain's construction PMI showed a similar decline on Wednesday, although manufacturing held up better.

Looking at the first three months of 2018 as a whole, the figures suggest Britain's economy expanded at a quarterly rate of just below 0.3 percent, down from an already-modest 0.4 percent at the end of 2017, IHS Markit said.

Reports this week showed snow and storms weighed on growth in services to its weakest in almost two years, and saw the construction industry contract for the first time in six months. While the pound fell after the services report, investors are still pricing in an around 85 percent likelihood of the BOE hiking rates in May.

The BOE has already factored in the hit from the bad weather, and downgraded its own estimate for the quarter. According to Markit, that means the Monetary Policy Committee's widely expected rate hike in May is still on the cards.

Not all the weakness in the PMI was weather-related, though.

IHS Markit said British services businesses reported weak consumer demand as well as concern about the country's departure from the EU in a year's time as being behind the slowest growth in new orders since July 2016.

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Wall Street Gains but Dow's 400-point Rally is Nearly Erased after FBI Report

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Wall Street's major indexes advanced on Monday as a softer stance by U.S. policymakers on China tariffs powered a rebound from last week's selloff, but stocks pared gains late in the session after a report that the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the office of President Donald Trump's lawyer.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 46.34 points to 23,979.10, with Merck and Intel as the best-performing stocks in the index. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 percent to 2,613.16, with tech adding 0.8 percent. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.5 percent to 6,950.34.

Amazon shares had risen as much as 2.3 percent before closing just 0.1 percent higher. Boeing gained as much as 2.7 percent before ending the session down 1.1 percent.

At its session high, the Dow rose as much as 440.42 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained as much as 1.9 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

Stocks climbed after Trump's new economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC that the president may be open to forming an international coalition to grapple with trade issues involving China.

Investors will look for further signs of China's stance on trade relations when Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the Boao Forum economic conference on Tuesday.

The next corporate earnings season kicks off later in the week with financial companies BlackRock, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo all scheduled to release their quarterly results.

Merck gained over six percent after a committee determined Keytruda has helped previously untreated lung cancer patients live longer.

Facebook climbed 1.3 percent ahead of CEO Mark Zuckerberg's testimony on Tuesday regarding the data scandal involving firm Cambridge Analytica.

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U.S. Automakers’ Shares Surge After Xi Announces China’s plan to Reduce Car Tariffs

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Shares of U.S. carmakers surged after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the government's plans to “open the country's economy and to reduce the tariffs on automobiles.

Tesla edged up 5.2 percent while Fiat Chrysler advanced 2 percent. Ford Motor increased 1.8 percent and General Motors increased 3.3 percent. China is an important market for U.S. carmakers. European automakers also rose, with BMW rising 3 percent.

GM sold over 4 million cars in China in the previous year for the first time, while Tesla increased its revenue by twofold from China to $2 billion in 2017.

Xi said that his plans include greatly lowering import tariffs on foreign autos and reducing duties of other products. At the Boao Forum for Asia, Xi said that China is planning to boost imports and reach a greater of balance of international payments under the present account.

The Chinese leader's comments come amid escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. In a retaliatory move against America's tariff plans, China has unveiled its plan to impose fresh duties last week on 106 U.S. products, which then resulted in President Donald Trump threatening more duties.

This weekend, the U.S. softened its tone against China. On Sunday, Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CBS that a full-out trade war between the U.S. and China is not seen to take place. On the same day, Trump said that he will always have friendly ties with President Xi no matter the consequence of their trade conflict. He also said that China will roll down its Trade Barriers because it is the proper action to take.

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U.S. Government Posts $209 Billion Deficit in March

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The U.S. government ran a $209 billion budget deficit in March as outlays grew and receipts fell, the Treasury Department said. That compared with a budget deficit of $176 billion in the same month last year, according to Treasury's monthly budget statement.

When accounting for calendar adjustments, the deficit was $165 billion in March compared with an adjusted deficit of $134 billion in the same month the previous year.

The deficit for the fiscal year, which started in October, was $600 billion, compared to a deficit of $527 billion in the same period of fiscal 2017.

Unadjusted receipts last month totaled $211 billion, down three percent from March 2017, while unadjusted outlays increased to $420 billion, which is seven percent higher from the same month the previous year.

The Congressional Budget Office had expected a $207 billion deficit for March. The nonpartisan agency said this March had one less business day than March 2017, and a smaller share of wage income is being withheld this year for taxes.

The CBO recently forecast that the federal deficit will reach $804 billion in fiscal 2018, up from $665 billion in fiscal 2017. It increased its estimate for this year's deficit mostly due to recent legislation that cut taxes and increased spending on the military and domestic programs. It had already expected widening deficits in the coming years as outlays, including spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare, rise faster than revenue.

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Trump Administration Weighs U.S. Options on Syria

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U.S. President Donald Trump along with his administration's security aides mulled U.S. options on Syria, where he has threatened missile attacks in reaction to an alleged poison gas attack.

Concerns regarding a confrontation between Russia and the Western allies have been escalated since Trump said on Wednesday that missiles will be launched in response to a chemical gas attack in the Syrian town of Douma on April 7, and criciticized Moscow for siding with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The U.S. leader cooled his heated remarks on Thursday and while he discussed his military options with allies such as Britain and France, who could participate in any U.S.-led strikes on Syria, there were indications of efforts to stop the crisis from going out of control. Trump has spoken to British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday, while he is due to speak with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Trump denied on Twitter that he said when an attack on Syria would occur, stating that it could happen 'very soon or not so soon at all'.

Later in the day, Trump convened with his national security team on the Syrian crisis. In a statement, the White House said that “no final decision” has been made and that they are continuing to evaluate intelligence and are in talks with partners and allies. But such statement did not necessarily indicate that Trump was pulling away from the idea of military action.

Global stock markets showed signs of recovery after Trump's hint that a military attack might not be imminent.

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China Makes Biggest Treasury Purchase in Six Months in February

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China increased its Treasury holdings in February by $5.8 billion, its biggest purchase in six months. On the other hand, Japan's Treasury holdings fell.

According to the Treasury, China's Treasury holdings increased to just under $1.18 trillion. Foreign net buying of Treasurys was $43.2 billion for the month.

As trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalates, so has rumors that the Chinese government could reduce purchases of Treasuries or even sell some of its holdings. The Trump administration on March 1 announced tariffs on aluminum and steel, which affect China. The U.S. also announced its intention to put tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, and Trump has since threatened to add tariffs to another $100 billion of goods.

In December, China's holdings of Treasuries stood at $1.18 trillion before falling to $1.17 trillion in January.

China is the biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries, with Japan coming in at second place. Japan's holdings declined by $3.6 billion, to a total of $1.06 trillion.

Buyers abroad also purchased $11.8 billion in agency debt and $4.1 billion of corporate debt. They reduced equity holdings by $1.2 billion

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Twitter Shares Jump After Morgan Stanley Upgrade

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Shares of Twitter Inc. soared almost 11 percent on Tuesday and were bound for their best session in two months after Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the social network company to “equal-weight” from “underweight”.

In a report, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said that investors are likely to continue to pay a premium for the company's stock due to projections of accelerated revenue growth in 2018 and indications of progress in the firm's turnaround.

The analyst raised his target price for Twitter from $28 to $29. At midday trading, Twitter traded at $31.69 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Nowak cited the company's constructive advertiser conversations, improving user growth and positive revisions for the upgrade.

An unexpected swing to revenue growth caused the stock of the company to rise 12 percent following its last quarter report on February 8 and to date, the stock is up 32 percent.

Despite the increasing popularity of the social network, it has struggled to book a profit and consistently grow its revenue.

In general, analysts are cautions. Nine has a 'sell' recommendation on the stock, 21 have neutral ratings and seven recommend buying, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Overall, they anticipate Twitter's stock to fall to $27.58.

The stock is trading at 45 times projected ratings, against Facebook's valuation of 21 times earnings, Thomson Reuters data showed.

On average, Twitter is expected by analysts to report a 10 percent increase in revenue to $605 million and non-GAAP EPS of 12 cents when it reports its March quarter results on April 25.

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UK Inflation Drops to 2.5%, its Lowest in a Year

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UK inflation dropped in March to its lowest level in a year, raising questions over whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates in May.

The consumer price index (CPI) dropped to 2.5 percent in March from 2.7 percent in February, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists had expected the annual rate of growth in prices to remain unchanged at 2.7 percent.

A smaller increase than is usual in the price of women's clothing was mainly responsible for the sharp decline, as well as the abolition of the Spring Budget, which meant there was no increase in alcohol and tobacco duty.

The decline in the headline inflation rate came from a fall in the rate of goods inflation from three percent in February to 2.4 percent in March. Goods prices are thought to be more sensitive to the exchange rate.

The sudden drop in inflation will lead investors to question whether the BoE will hike interest rates at its May meeting. However, many economists still expect the Bank of England, which had been forecasting CPI to average 2.9 percent over the first three months of 2018, to raise rates in May.

According to the most recent figures, UK wages increased by 2.8 percent in February.

Inflation has dropped in recent months as the impact of the sudden fall in the value of the pound after the EU referendum begins to fade. Having pushed up the cost of imported goods, the slide for sterling damaged the economy as squeezed consumers reined in their spending.

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Protectionism, Debt are Huge Threats to World Economy - EU

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The largest threats to global economic expansion are government debt and protectionist tendencies, according to European Union economy commissioner Pierre Moscovici.

“The two main risks for growth, which is now very solid all over the world, are on the one hand protectionism and trade tensions, and on the other hand debt,” Moscovici said. “There is no trade war for the time being, so that's good.”

The IMF recently cautioned that the world's debt has swelled to a record $164 trillion, a trend that could make it more difficult for countries to respond to the next recession. Global public and private debt increased to 225 percent of worldwide economic output in 2016, the fund said on Wednesday in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report. The fund also cautioned that the global commercial order risked being “torn apart” by trade wars.

The global debt burden clouded the IMF's otherwise upbeat outlook of the world economy, which is in its strongest upswing since 2011. The fund expects growth of 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019.

U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a crackdown on China and has announced tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. The EU is seeking a permanent exemption from the metals levies after Trump granted a waiver to the bloc until May 1 and left open the possibility of a longer exclusion. The European Commission, the EU's executive branch in Brussels, has said that failure to gain a longer exemption from the U.S. metal-import duties would lead to a tit-for-tat response by the bloc.

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Australia Inflation Gains 0.4% In Q1

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Consumer prices in Australia were up 0.4 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That was shy of expectations for 0.5 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, inflation advanced 1.9 percent - unchanged from Q4 but beneath forecasts for 2.0 percent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's weighted median was up 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.9 percent on year, while the trimmed mean added 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year.

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South Korea Consumer Confidence Weakens Further

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South Korea's consumer confidence weakened for the fifth successive month in April, survey data from Bank of Korea showed Wednesday.

The consumer sentiment index fell to 107.1 in April from 108.1 in March.

Consumer sentiments regarding current living standards and their future outlook remained the same as in March, at 95 and 102 respectively. Consumer sentiment as to future household income and spending were dropped marginally in April.

The expected inflation rate over the following year was 2.6 percent.

The survey was conducted among 2,200 households between April 10 and 17.

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Australia Q1 Import Prices Rise More Than Expected

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Australia's import prices increased at a faster-than-expected pace in the three months ended March, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday.

The import price index climbed 2.1 percent sequentially in the first quarter, following a 2.0 percent slight rise in the fourth quarter of 2017. It was the second consecutive quarterly increase.

That was above the 1.2 percent rise economists had forecast. The increase was driven by higher prices paid for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials, road vehicles, inorganic chemicals and plastics in primary forms.

On a yearly basis, imports prices grew at a faster rate of 2.3 percent in the March quarter, after a 1.4 percent gain in the December quarter.

Data also revealed that export prices rose 4.9 percent quarterly in the first quarter, following a 2.8 increase in the prior month. As compared to the corresponding period last year, the index dropped by 1.4 percent.

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Japan Industrial Production Jumps 1.2% In March

Industrial output in Japan gained 1.2 percent on month in March, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That topped forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 2.0 percent gain in February.

On a yearly basis, industrial production jumped 2.2 percent - exceeding forecasts for 2.0 percent and up from 1.6 percent in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it is picking up slowly. Also on Friday: .

Retail sales in Japan were down a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent on month in March, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said.

That was shy of forecasts for a flat reading following the 0.5 percent increase in February.

On a yearly basis, retail sales gained 1.0 percent - also missing forecasts for 1.5 percent and down from 1.7 percent in the previous month.

Large retailer sales added 0.1 percent on year, missing expectations for 0.8 percent and down from 0.6 percent a month earlier. .

The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent in March, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said - in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.59 - also matching forecasts and up from 1.58 in February. The participation rate was 61.2 percent.

The number of employed persons in March was 66.20 million, an increase of 1.87 million or 2.9 percent on year. .

Consumer prices in Tokyo were up 0.5 percent on year in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. That was well shy of forecasts for 0.8 percent and down from 1.0 percent in March.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, was up an annual 0.6 percent. That also missed forecasts for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged.

On a monthly basis, overall Tokyo CPI fell 0.4 percent and core inflation eased 0.1 percent.

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