Forex News from InstaForex

Gary Cohn Out of Running to Become Next Fed Head

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Export prices in Australia were down 3.0 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That beat forecasts for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 5.7 percent drop in the three months prior.

Import prices were down 1.6 percent on quarter, missing slightly forecasts for a decline of 1.5 percent following the 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, export prices were up 14.2 percent and import prices dipped 0.4 percent.

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COLOMBIA: Colcap Rises With Ecopetrol's Sharp Gains

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Colcap, the main index of the Colombian Stock Exchange, rose 0.10% Thursday, closing at 1,471.17 points due to the good performance of Ecopetrol, which gained more than 5%.

Andr?s Fonseca, an analyst at Alianza Valores, said that oil prices continue to rise after Russian and Saudi officials indicated that they intend to extend production cuts by 2018.

Fonseca said that the oil rebound favored the performance of the state-owned oil company Ecopetrol and a good part of Colcap's constituents.

The locally traded U.S. dollar closed the day at 3,015.01 Colombian pesos, marking a 0.56% rise, due to investors expectation over a tax reform in the United States and the appointment of the new head of the U.S. Federal Reserve bank.

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Gold Steadies After Weekly Losses

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Gold futures were flat Friday, unable to trim recent losses as U.S. stocks continued their record-setting run.

Surging techs stocks drove the Nasdaq up 2 percent, while the rest of the market was in consolidation mode after all-time highs.

With gold's safe haven appeal diminished, the precious metal has fallen in October.

Dec. gold added $2.20, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,271.80/oz, but was down 0.8% for the week.

Economic growth in the U.S. slowed modestly in the third quarter, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday, although the pace of growth still exceeded economist estimates.

The report said real gross domestic product jumped by 3.0 percent in third quarter after surging up by 3.1 percent in the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to increase by 2.5 percent.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates in December if the economy performs well over the next two months.

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Japan Retail Sales Picks up as Consumer Spending Gains Momentum

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Japan's retail sales increased in September at the fastest clip in three months and extended a recovery into an 11th consecutive month as shoppers increased their spending on clothes and daily goods, showing strength in consumer spending.

The 2.2 percent annual rise in retail sales in September was less than the average estimate for a 1.5 percent annual rise and comes after a revised 1.8 percent year-on-year increase in August.

Economists project consumption in the third quarter to a bit softer than the prior quarter. However, they also noted that outlook continues to be healthy and consumer spending is still in moderate recovery. They see the labor market providing support to consumer spending.

Purchases of clothes increased 5.0 percent in September from a year piro, the fastest rate in three months, according to trade ministry data released on Monday. Spending on daily goods increased by an annual rate of 1.2 percent against the 0.4 percent annual contraction in the preceding month. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to indicate that it will postpone expanding its stimulus for the moment during its policy meeting that will end on Tuesday.

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European Economics Preview: Bank Of England Likely To Hike Interest Rate

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The Bank of England is widely expected to lift its key rate for the first time in a decade despite Brexit uncertainties, as inflation continues its upward trend on a weaker pound.

The BoE is forecast to raise the rate by 25 basis point to 0.50 percent. The monetary policy committee is expected to maintain the asset purchase programme at GBP 435 billion.

The policy announcement is due at 8.00 am ET on November 2, dubbed "Super Thursday". The bank is also slated to release its latest Inflation Report along with the MPC decision.

At 2.45 am ET, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs releases consumer confidence for October. The sentiment index is forecast to rise to zero from -3 in previous quarter.

At 4.00 am ET, final trade balance from Hungary and Purchasing Managers' survey from Poland are due.

At 4.15 am ET, Switzerland's retail sales data is due. Economists forecast sales to grow 0.3 percent on year in September, reversing a 0.2 percent fall in August.

In the meantime, Spain's manufacturing PMI is due. The index is seen at 54.8 in October versus 54.3 in September.

At 4.45 am ET, IHS Markit releases Italy's manufacturing PMI. Economists forecast the index to rise slightly to 56.5 in October from 56.3 in September.

Thereafter, final manufacturing PMI figures are due from France, at 4.50 am ET.

At 4.55 am ET, final factory PMI and unemployment reports are due from Germany. The number of unemployed is forecast to fall 10,000 in October, following a decrease of 22,000 in September.

At 5.00 am ET, the Eurozone final manufacturing PMI is due. The index is expected to match the flash reading of 58.6 in October.

At 5.30 am ET, IHS Markit publishes UK construction PMI for October. Economists forecast the indicator to rise to 48.5 from 48.1 in September.
 
Dow Ends at Record Peak, S&P Flat after Release of Tax Reform Bill

U.S. equities finished mostly higher on Thursday as investors assessed the details of the tax-reform plan proposed by Republicans.

The plan would reduce the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent but also ending certain tax breaks for firms and individuals.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.35 percent 23,516.26, a record peak, after briefly losing 84 points. The index also notched a record intraday peak. Shares of Boeing were the best-performers on the 30-stock index.

The S&P 500 edged up 0.02 percent to 2,579.85, with financials climbing 0.9 percent. The index finished above the flatline. Shares of Allstate were among the best-performing stocks in the financials sector, adding 3.8 percent.

The Nasdaq composite finished below breakeven at 6,714.94; it dropped earlier, with tech investors being disappointed by the 12 percent rate on repatriated cash.

Apple advanced as the iPhone maker's revenue forecast for the holiday shopping quarter was highly above market expectations.

Facebook dropped 2.0 percent as investors brushed off solid quarterly results and were more concerned about the social media firm's spending. The stock was the biggest laggard on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

U.S. housing sector stocks plunged amid concerns regarding the tax plan's cap on deductions for mortgages. The PHLX Housing index dropped 1.1 percent, with Toll Brothers losing 6.1 percent and MDC Holdings down by 12.0 percent.

Shares of home improvement retailers also declined. Lowe's fell 4.1 percent and Home Depot pulled back 1.6 percent, adding pressure on the Dow.

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China Private Sector Growth At 16-Month Low

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China's private sector expanded at the weakest pace in sixteen months in October, survey data from IHS Markit showed Friday.

The Caixin composite output index, which covers both manufacturing and services, dropped to 51.0 in October from 51.4 in September. However, any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

The softer increase in overall output was largely driven by a further slowdown in manufacturing production growth. At the same time, Chinese services activity picked up from September's 21-month low. The seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index rose to 51.2 from 50.6.

New business increased across both the manufacturing and service sectors during October.

Employment at the composite level was little-changed for the third straight month in October, as further job shedding at manufacturers continued to offset hiring at services companies.

"The Caixin PMIs for October showed that the economy had a relatively weak start to the fourth quarter. However, monetary policy is unlikely to be loosened unless major downside risks emerge," Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said.

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UK Like-For-Like Sales Slide In October - BRC

Like-for-like sales in the United Kingdom tumbled in October, the latest survey from the British Retail Consortium revealed on Tuesday - sliding 1.0 percent on year.

That was well shy of forecasts for a gain of 0.8 percent and down sharply from the 1.9 percent increase in September.

Overall sales were up just 0.2 percent, marking a nine-year low for the October month.

"The decline was driven by the worst performance of non-food sales since our record began in January 2011," said BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson.

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Wall Street Notched Record Peaks as Dealmaking Eyed

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U.S. equities advanced to record peaks on Monday, supported by news of corporate dealmaking and as investors bet that a Republican plan to trim corporate taxes would buoy earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 0.04 percent to 23,548.42, an all-time peak. The S&P 500 managed to hit a record peak, rising 0.13 percent to 2,591.13. The Nasdaq composite also ended at an all-time peak, adding 0.3 percent to 6,786.44.

Investor optimism was also spurred by a Republican proposal to lower the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent and end some tax breaks for firms and individuals.

Qualcomm gained 1.15 percent after Broadcom offered to buy its fellow chip maker for $103 billion, in what could be the largest-ever acquisition in the tech sector. Shares of Broadcom rose 1.42 percent. Qualcomm's increase also helped the VanEck Vectors Semi ETF to notch an intraday record peak.

Advanced Micro Devices also bounced on dealmaking news.

Twenty-First Century Fox soared 9.93 percent after CNBC reported that the film and television conglomerate has held talks to sell most of the company to media giant Walt Disney Co. Shares of Disney climbed 2.02 percent.

Apple advanced 1.01 percent and contributed the most to the S&P 500 index's gains.

The S&P 500 energy index jumped 2.2 percent on gains in crude prices after the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, tightened his grip on power through an anti-corruption purge.

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Wall Street Mixed; Media Stocks Rise on Dealmaking Prospects

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U.S. equities advanced on Tuesday as investor sentiment was supported by the prospects of dealmaking in the media sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 0.04 percent to 23,557.23, extending a record closing peak. The S&P 500 ended just below breakeven at 2,590.64. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.4 percent to 6,767.78. The three indexes notched intraday record peaks earlier in the session.

Dealmaking hopes were fueled by news that Disney approached 21st Century Fox on a deal. The two companies have been in talks in recent weeks, but there is no certainty that a deal will get done. Disney gained one percent and was the best-performing stock on the Dow.

Shares of Discovery Communications bounced 1.3 percent and were among the best performers on the S&P 500. CBS also climbed 1.14 percent.

Financial shares dropped as Wells Fargo lost 1.7 percent and Citigroup dropped 1.8 per cent. Shares of JPMorgan were also down by 2.8 percent. The decline in financials comes as the yield curve flattened further for a seventh day in a row.

TripAdvisor and Priceline were the biggest decliners on the S&P 500 after both online travel websites issued quarterly results that raised concerns on their growth prospects.

Solid corporate earnings, along with improving economic data and the prospects of changes to the U.S. tax code, have helped stocks to increase higher since President Donald Trump was elected.

In the first and second quarter of the year, S&P 500 earnings rose 15.5 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The current earnings season has also been resilient. According to FactSet, third-quarter earnings have increased 6.3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

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China Exports Rise Less Than Expected In October

China's exports increased at a slower-than-expected pace in October, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Wednesday.

In dollar terms, exports climbed 6.9 percent year-over-year in October, slightly below economists' forecast for an increase of 7.1 percent.

At the same time, imports surged 17.2 percent in October from a year ago, faster than the expected growth of 17.0 percent.

The trade surplus totaled $38.2 billion in October versus the expected surplus of $39.1 billion.

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China CPI Climbs To 1.9% In October

Consumer prices in China were up 1.9 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for 1.8 percent and was up from 1.6 percent in September.

On a monthly basis, inflation gained 0.1 percent after rising 0.5 percent a month earlier.

The bureau also said that producer prices advanced an annual 6.9 percent - unchanged from the previous month but topping forecasts for 6.6 percent.

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Wall Street Moved Higher Despite Fall in Bank Shares

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Bank shares declined broadly on Wednesday amid concerns that the recent Republican electoral losses might hinder the party's push to reform the U.S. tax code.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 0.03 percent to 23,563.36, with Wal-Mart and Merck as the best-performing stocks in the index. Wal-Mart and Merck advanced 1.5 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 2,594.38, with consumer staples as the best-performing sector. The Nasdaq composite added 0.3 percent to 6,789.12.

The SPDR S&P bank exchange-traded fund dropped 0.7 percent and hit its fourth consecutive session in the red.

Bank of America was among the worst performers in the ETF, losing 1.5 percent. Shares of JPMorgan Chase also dropped 1.1 percent. However, Goldman Sachs got a boost after it announced it had installed new leaders for its struggling fixed-income division. The bank's shares climbed 0.67%.

Lenders declined after Republicans lost elections in New Jersey and Virginia. These losses raise uncertainty surrounding the GOP's plans to move forward with tax reform.

Banks were also under pressure due to a flattening yield curve. The spread between the two and the 10-year U.S. bond yields moved around 70 basis points, its lowest level in a decade.

A flattening yield curve is sometimes the precursor of an inverted curve, which has been a recession warning.

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Japan M2 Money Stock Gains 4.1% In October

The M2 money stock in Japan was up 4.1 percent on year in October, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - coming in at 981.9 trillion yen.

That was in line with expectations following the downwardly revised 4.0 percent gain in September (originally 4.1 percent).

The M3 money stock gained an annual 3.5 percent at 1,308.8 trillion yen. That beat expectations for a gain of 3.4 percent, which would have been unchanged.

The L money stock advanced 4.0 percent on year to 1,715.0 trillion yen, up from the 3.8 percent gain in the previous month.

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Germany Trade Surplus Slightly Expands in September

Germany's trade surplus increased marginally in September, as imports fell more than exports compared to August.

According to official data from the Federal Statistics Office, the surplus stood at €21.8 billion in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from €21.3 billion in August.

The widening came as exports dropped 0.4 percent to €107.5 billion, and imports dropped one percent to €85.7 billion. The surplus was €20.2 billion the previous year.

The reading, which followed months of growth in both exports and imports, showed that sales of German goods and services abroad only slightly grew overall in the third quarter.

According to economists, trade would not provide any significant contribution to expansion in the quarter, but they are optimistic about the outlook given strong demand for German goods.

Industrial firms posted a 3.6 percent rise in orders in August after contracts for “Made in Germany” goods dropped by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in July, recent data showed.

Export growth has been softer, which indicates that the economy is counting more on consumption, state spending and construction as drivers.

The country's wider current account surplus, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments, increased to €25.4 billion after an upwardly revised reading of €18.0 billion in August, unadjusted data showed.

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Australia Jobless Rate Falls To 5.4% In October

The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.4 percent in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That beat forecasts for 5.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the September reading.

The Australian economy added 3,700 jobs in October to 12,297,100, well shy of the forecast for 18,800 following the addition of 19,800 in the previous month.

The participation rate fell to 65.1 percent, missing expectations for 65.2 percent, which would have been unchanged.

Full-time employment increased 24,300 to 8,425,400 in October and part-time employment shed 20,700 to 3,871,700.

Unemployment decreased 8,100 to 701,500. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work remained steady at 485,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 8,100 to 215,600.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 4.6 million hours (0.3 percent) to 1,723.7 million hours.

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COLOMBIA: Government Lowers Growth Projection For 2017 To 1.8% From 2%

The Colombian economy should grow less than expected in 2017 - from 2% to 1.8% - said the South American country's Minister of Finance, Mauricio C?rdenas. The minister made the estimate after Colombia's statistics office reported that country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2% in the third quarter of 2017 on an annual basis.

According to C?rdenas, the official figures "confirm, once again, that the worst is over, that we overcame the most difficult moment and the economy is in a recovery process."

He also said that the government expects a 2.5% annualized growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.

C?rdenas stressed that the third-quarter's data was much better than the last four quarters records, which "raises a more positive economic scenario."

Finally, the minister announced that the economy is expected to grow around 3% in 2018, in line with the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which, in its most recent report, estimates that the Colombian GDP would increase in a 2.8%.

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Fed’s Williams Reiterates Support for December Rate Hike

San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams restated his view that the U.S. economy has sustained a steady pace of growth that makes it strong enough for the Fed to continue its process of normalizing monetary policy gradually over the next couple of years to around 2.5 percent.

Speaking at the sidelines of a conference, Williams expressed his view that a 'perfectly reasonable' route for policy was one more rate hike this year, and three hikes in the following year.

He also called for his counterparts in other central banks around the world to take advantage of the moment of relative economic calm to reevaluate their strategy to monetary policy. He said that in order to avoid the next recession, global central bankers must take more actions than just lower interest rates.

Williams said central banks will be better able to handle the next economic recession if new approaches which are effective even when many nations are simultaneously limited by the lower bound are developed. He said that alternatives such as negative interest rates, as well as untested tools such as price-level targeting or nominal-income targeting, has significant pros and cons which should be studied and discussed carefully.

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Japan Export Growth Steady in October

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Japan's export growth was steady in October, which indicates that global demand for Japanese cars and electronics will likely extend the economic recovery into the current quarter.

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, exports increased 14.0 percent year-on-year in October, driven by shipments of automobiles to Australia and liquid-crystal device production equipment and raw materials for plastics to China. It follows a 14.1 percent rise in September.

The recent figures follows data which showed that Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the third quarter, propelled by strong external demand.

In volume terms, exports increased 3.8 percent in October from the previous year, following a 4.8 percent annual rise in September.

The value of exports to the United States was up 7.1 percent in the year to October led by motors and construction and mining machinery, following an 11.1 percent rise in September.

Japan's trade surplus with the United States increased by an annual 11.3 percent in October to 644.7 billion yen ($5.75 billion), a source of concern given President Donald Trump's demand for bilateral trade talks to fix trade imbalances under his “America First” policy.

The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of annual expansion in Japan's trade surplus with the United States.

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Thai GDP Growth Accelerates In Q3

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Thailand's economy grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, data from the National Economic and Social Development Board showed Monday.

Gross domestic product expanded 4.3 percent year-on-year, bigger than the 3.8 percent growth posted a quarter ago.

The economy was forecast to grow 3.9 percent.

Quarter-on-quarter, GDP advanced 1 percent versus 1.4 percent in the previous three months.

On the expenditure-side, private consumption grew 3.1 percent annually versus 3 percent a quarter ago. Likewise, growth in government spending improved to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent.

Gross fixed capital formation advanced 1.2 percent, much faster than the 0.4 percent increase seen a quarter ago.

For the external sector, exports and imports of goods and services climbed 7.4 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

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