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French Election: Euro Cheers French Election Outcome, Yen Hammered

The single currency is up almost 1.5 percent as the centrist, pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron is set to win the first round of French Election, initial results show. The euro is currently trading at 1.087 against the dollar and at one point the single currency was trading at as high as 1.094 against the dollar.

According to latest numbers, Emmanuel Macron is leading with 23.7 percent of the votes, followed by Front National leader Marine le Pen, who is set to receive 21.7 percent of the votes. The other two top candidates, Republican François Fillon and the leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are set to receive 20 percent and 19.5 percent of the votes respectively. Since no candidate received 50 percent of the votes required to become the next President, the top two candidates will face each other in the second round of the election, to be held on May 7th.

A lightning Ipsos poll of second round voting intentions shows Macron beating Marine Le Pen in the second round by 24 percent margin. However, the outcome would depend a lot on undecided voters and abstention.

As the political tensions ease with a first round victory for Macron, the safe haven currency yen took a beating. The yen is trading more than a percent down at 110 per dollar. At one point, it was down to as low as 110.6 per dollar.

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Macron, Le Pen Hails Victory on First Round of French Presidential Election

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Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen came out victorious during the first round of the French presidential election, sparking a runoff on May 7 between two radically distinct perspectives of the country's future.

Macron is on track to gain 23.8 percent in Sunday's election, and National Front Leader Le Pen with 21.7 percent, as stated in the predictions from the Interior Ministry based on over 90 percent of votes counted. The turnout signifies that for the first time in modern French political history, both establishment parties were eliminated in the first round.

Republican Francois Fillon conceded after placing third with a forecasted 20 percent, Communist-supported Jean-Luc Melenchon had 19.4 percent, and Socialist Benoit Hamon followed in fifth place with only 6.3 percent.

The rejection of the two main parties indicates the displeasure flowing through a society that has to deal with Islamic terrorism and years of subpar economic growth and high unemployment. The next two weeks will examine the appeal of both candidates' stand on the economy, Europe and security.

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Moody's: the Upcoming Adoption of Ifrs 17 in Korea Will Pressure Capitalization, But Promote Structural Improvements

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Moody's Investors Service says that International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 -- when implemented in Korea -- will challenge the reported capitalization of life insurers, by requiring them to measure their policy liabilities at current interest rate values and therefore provide higher levels of reserves.

"Nevertheless, beyond the pressure on insurers' capitalization profiles, the new standard will, over time, promote structural improvements and value creation in the industry," says Stella Ng, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst. Specifically, IFRS 17 will improve insurers' pricing discipline and product mix by better reflecting the true economic cost of embedded options and guarantees in their products.

"It will also encourage insurers to sell more longer-term protection products instead of volume-driven, short-term savings products," adds Ng. "We note that the industry has been increasing its higher-margin protection policy sales, including long-term healthcare and critical illness products, and we expect that this trend will continue even after IFRS 17 is implemented".

Moody's analysis is contained in its just-released report titled "Life Insurance - Korea: IFRS 17 Will Reduce Reported Capitalization, But Drive Structural Improvements" and is authored by Ng.

Moody's report points out that under IFRS 17, the banning of netting between policy surplus and deficits, and the use of market-consistent discount rates -- which will likely be lower than the average discount rates currently used by Korean life insurers -- to arrive at best estimate liability (BEL), will result in broadly lower reported capitalization.

Also, the impact will be more significant for insurers that have a large book of negative spread in-force business. As a result, insurers will be under pressure to strengthen their capitalization, with many likely to do so through hybrid bond issuance.

Moody's also says that IFRS 17 will provide a strong incentive for insurers to reduce their duration mismatches.

Because the new accounting standard requires closer monitoring and matching of economic assets and liabilities, Moody's expects that IFRS 17 will push the industry towards more dynamic asset-liability management and investment strategies to minimize duration mismatches and the associated interest-rate risk exposure. This situation will lower the potential sensitivity of insurers' solvency and earnings to financial market shocks.

As for small insurers, they will face greater operational challenges because the more explicit recognition and disclosure of the contractual service margin and risk margin under IFRS 17 will expose their relatively weak earnings quality, given that they rely heavily on spread income.

Smaller insurers will therefore face more difficulty in adapting to IFRS 17, and in addition they will need to devote substantial resources and incur adjustment costs to meet the more stringent measurement and disclosure standards.

Moody's explains that Korean life insurers are preparing for IFRS 17 that is scheduled to be finalized by the International Accounting Standards Board in May 2017, and which will come into effect in Korea on 1 January 2021. The Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea have announced that they will issue guidelines to insurance companies after the finalized standards of IFRS 17 are released.

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Chow Tai Fook Gains Australian Government Approval for $3 Billion Deal

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Hong Kong conglomerate Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Ltd. has obtained the approval of the Australian government regarding its bid for gas and electricity firm Alinta Energy Ltd.

According to a spokeswoman for Treasurer Scott Morrison, the takeover was approved with strict conditions. The deal has been approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board and the treasury declined to comment further.

The buyout bid from Chow Tai Fook valued Alinta at nearly four billion Australian dollars (US$3.02 billion), a person familiar with the topic said. Both companies did not reveal financial terms on the deal.

Chow Tai Fook, which is widely-known for its jewelry business, is the biggest in the world by revenue. For the conglomerate, this deal marks its first significant investment in Australia's energy industry, granting the company control of a utility with nearly 800,000 electricity and gas customers as well as a generation portfolio of as much as 1,957 megawatts.

The Hong Kong conglomerate said it plans to maintain Alinta's current senior management team and aims to expand business through investment in the energy market. The deal is seen to close by the end of April.

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Moody's: Rising Czech Koruna Will have Uneven But Manageable Impact for the Country's Banks

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The appreciation of the koruna will impact Czech banks unevenly, with UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia (UniCredit CzSk) and Raiffeisenbank, a.s. the most vulnerable to the shift and Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka, a.s. (CSOB) and Ceská Sporitelna, a.s. (Ceská) likely to be least affected. The rating agency notes that overall the impact will still be manageable due to the primarily domestic focus of the banks' operations and the Czech National Bank's commitment to limiting excessive currency volatility.

The Czech National Bank removed its CZK27 upper limit on the koruna-euro exchange rate on April 6, allowing the koruna to rise for the first time in three and a half years.

Moody's report, entitled "Ceská; CSOB; Komercní; UniCredit CzSk; Raiffeisenbank; MONETA: Impact of Rising Koruna Will Be Uneven But Manageable," is available on www.moodys.com.

Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

"Local currency appreciation in the Czech Republic will filter through to the country's banks via various channels, such as corporate margins, funding costs, and the value of government securities," says Arif Bekiroglu, Assistant Vice President and Analyst at Moody's. "UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia and Raiffeisenbank are more vulnerable than their peers due to material exposures to the non-retail segment, leaner capital and weaker profitability."

MONETA Money Bank, a.s. (MONETA) has a high exposure to small businesses but strong capital, and Komercní banka has a high exposure to corporates which tends to be less vulnerable, but weaker capital. CSOB and Ceská are likely to be least affected due to their low to moderate exposure to riskier segments relative to their solid capitalisation.

MONETA and UniCredit CzSk could see rising problem loans as a result of their exposure to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are the most vulnerable to an economic slowdown. Exports account for more than 80% of Czech GDP and a strong currency appreciation means that Czech exporters may lose competitiveness. However, ongoing economic recovery in euro-area economies should help to offset most of this impact and to create growing demand for Czech goods. The euro area is the Czech Republic's biggest trading partner, accounting for 65% of Czech exports as of year-end 2015.

Banks holding larger shares of government securities as available-for-sale (AfS) assets, such as UniCredit CzSk, Ceska and MONETA could also be negatively impacted. This is because foreign investors looking for currency gains could exit long-held positions in Czech government securities as the currency appreciates, lowering the securities' market valuation.

Funding costs will rise as benchmark interest rates increase. We expect a rise in benchmark interest rates to control inflation once the exchange rate settles and this will impact funding costs at RBCZ and MONETA more than their peers due to their tighter koruna liquidity.

Moody's notes that since many Czech banks are subsidiaries of euro-area parents and provide those parents with a substantial part of their profit, these parents — Erste Group Bank AG, KBC Bank N.V., Société Générale, UniCredit S.p.A. and Raiffeisen Bank International AG— could benefit from improved revenues and capital. This is because the euro-equivalent of their Czech subsidiaries' revenue and capital will improve and the dividend equivalent in euros will also be higher.

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Wall Street Gains as Nasdaq Rises Above 6,000

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U.S. equities advanced sharply as strong quarterly reports from numerous big-cap firms followed through. The Nasdaq Composite reached a record peak, while the Dow and S&P 500 were also near recent highs as solid earnings highlighted the health of corporate America.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1.12 percent at 20,996.12, as Caterpillar led gains while Verizon was the top decliner. The S&P 500 rose 0.61 percent at 2,388.61, as materials led nine sectors up while telecommunications and utilities lagged behind. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.7 percent at 6,025.49.

Caterpillar jumped 7.7 percent at $104.29 after earlier notching a multi-year peak of $104.71 while Mcdonald's bounced 5.6 percent to $141.71, both after exceeding profit estimates.

According to Thomson Reuters, total profits of S&P 500 firms are estimated to have increased 11 percent during the first quarter, the most since 2011.

The Nasdaq scaled a record level of 6,036.02, breaking 6,000 for the first time, powered by advances in index heavyweights Apple and Microsoft. The S&P 500 notched its day's peak after a report that U.S. President Donald Trump's tax proposal will be expected on Wednesday.

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South Korea’s Real Gdp Grows Above Forecast in Q1 2017

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The South Korean economic growth accelerated in the first quarter of 2017, the advanced estimate of the Bank of Korea showed. The preliminary data for the first quarter indicated that the real GDP grew 0.9 percent on a sequential basis, as compared with the 0.5 percent growth seen in the prior quarter. This is more than the forecast of 0.7 percent growth.

Gross fixed capital formation contributed the most to the first quarter growth. It expanded 4 percent sequentially. Within the gross fixed capital formation, construction rose 5.3 percent. Meanwhile, private consumption rose 0.4 percent, with overseas consumption by residents increasing. Expenditures on non-durable goods and services dropped. Exports grew 1.9 percent sequentially, while imports were up 4.3 percent, thanks to growth in imports and machinery and equipment and precision instruments.

On a year-on-year basis, South Korea’s real GDP grew 2.7 percent in the March quarter, as compared with the 2.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016. It is slightly above the forecast of 2.6 percent growth. Private consumption was up 2 percent, whereas government consumption rose 2.7 percent. On a year-on-year basis, construction was up 9.7 percent. Exports grew 3.7 percent year-on-year, while imports were up 9.4 percent.

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Wall Street Slips as Trump Unveils Tax Plan

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U.S. equities retreated as investors priced in President Donald Trump's plan for tax reform, while earnings season carried on. The proposal from the Trump administration reduced tax rates for businesses and on overseas corporate profits returned to the country.

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 0.1 percent at 20,975.09, as Procter & Gamble led losses while Verizon outperformed. The S&P 500 fell 0.05 percent at 2,387.45, with real estate leading seven sectors down and telecommunication the top gainer. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.27 points to end at 6,025.23.

The S&P 500 dropped marginally after wavering near an all-time peak. Expectations for lower corporate taxes have been an advantage for stocks ever since Trump was elected in November.

Retail stocks jumped on Trump's announcement, as it revealed that it did not include a border adjustment tax. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) climbed one percent.

Among stocks, United Technologies climbed 1.1 percent to $118.20 and gave the largest lift to the Dow industrials after posting a quarterly profit that exceeded expectations supported by higher sales in all four of its business units. Shares of Boeing lost almost one percent to $181.71 after the planemaker posted a decline in revenue.

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Iraq Says to Trail Consensus at Next Month's OPEC Gathering

Iraq said it will simply go with the flow when OPEC convenes in Vienna this May to determine whether to prolong output accord, according to the country's oil chief.

Iraqi oil leader Jabar Ali al-Luaibi reiterated Thursday they are definitely going with the consensus reached by the oil cartel during their gathering.

He added the country is fully committed to the agreement as it has attained around 97% of its production target.

Luaibi also said the production cuts led by the organization were slowly leading to a much-anticipated rebalancing of the crude market.

The Iraqi official stressed the OPEC decision to c

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Global Manufacturing Sentiment Off to Weak Start in Q2 2017, says Barclays

Barclays global manufacturing sentiment index dropped in April to 0.10 from March’s 0.23. The fall was mainly due to a drop in the headline manufacturing PMI prints in the U.S. and China. But some of this softness was countered by a rebound in U.K.’s manufacturing sentiment and a robust report from the euro area.

Taking a closer look of the country-level PMI reports indicate that manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. continues to be solid and therefore the fall in April is not a particular cause of worry. But the decline in China’s PMI implies a downside risk to Chinese economic growth. There is concern relating to the optimism seen amongst U.K. companies over domestic demand given several factors that might work against the consumer sector, such as the real income squeeze and the possibly weakening in unsecured credit growth ahead.

“Looking at the subcomponents, our global new orders gauge slipped to 0.02 in April (prev.: 0.32) while new export orders edged only slightly lower to 0.49 (prev.: 0.53), suggesting that weakness was domestically driven”, added Barclays.

The forward-looking measure of new orders excluding finished goods inventories dropped to -0.08, mainly due to inventory accumulation and a decline in new orders. The global input prices gauge weakened to 0.33 from 0.49, implying some easing in cost pressures.

In all, global manufacturing sentiment is off to a weak start in the second quarter of this year, following a solid showing in the first quarter, according to Barclays.

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U.S. Treasury Rallies on Weak Economic Data, Low Crude Prices

Prices of U.S. government bonds firmed as the sluggish U.S. automobile sales and the lower oil prices stoked demand for safe-haven assets.

Automakers General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. posted April sales declines of 5.8 percent and 7.1 percent respectively, against the same period last year.

Yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 2.296 percent, down from the 2.327 percent on Monday. Yields move inversely to bond prices. The yield on the benchmark debt has climbed to 2.34 percent earlier in the session, lifted by the strongest PMI reading in the U.K. manufacturing sector in three years.

The downward movement of crude prices also drove up demand for government debt, as U.S. crude oil futures posted a steep drop of over 2 percent on Tuesday. A fall in energy prices lowered expectations that the inflation would undermine the fixed returns investors get from Treasury debt investments.

The swinging movement in the market came as the U.S. central bank's rate setting committee held its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve is highly anticipated to stand pat on its key short-term policy rate. Fed-funds futures indicated a 66 percent probability that the Fed's next cycle of monetary policy tightening would occur in June, CME group stated.

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Anz New Zealand Job Ads rise Strongly in April, Suggests Ongoing Solid Employment Growth

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The ANZ New Zealand job ads rose strongly in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The job ads rose robustly by 2.8 percent, the strongest rise in five months. On a year-on-year basis, job ads were up 18.2 percent.

The ongoing high level of job ads shows a robust labor market. The rate of growth seems to be rising again following flattening off for a period. This is in line with the economy reaccelerating in the first quarter after moderate growth seen at the end of last year.

Auckland continues to be the strongest of the main centres on a year-on-year basis, with the seasonally adjusted monthly figure of job ads rising 3 percent to a fresh high. Wellington job ads growth was up 15 percent year-on-year, whereas Canterbury job ads rose to the highest level since mid-2015.

The regions continue to set the pace, noted ANZ. Except Taranaki, every region is seeing stronger annual job ad growth than any of the three main centres. However, the picture over the last few months is more mixed. The total job ads growth is being mainly driven by the construction, manufacturing, utilities and transport sector. The service sector is also adding strongly, along with retail and tourism.

“The data suggests ongoing strong employment growth, with the unemployment rate remaining under 5 percent this year. Lower unemployment will help propel wages higher”, added ANZ.

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Wall Street Drops as Fed Held Rates

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U.S. equities closed marginally lower after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged while investors priced in another round of earnings reports. Bank stocks increased broadly as expectations for a June rate hike from the U.S. central bank rose.

The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 0.04 percent at 20,957.90, as Merck led gains while Walt Disney underperformed the most. The S&P 500 slipped 0.13 percent at 2,388.13, with real estate leading losses while financials were the best performing. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.37 percent at 6,072.55.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) gained 0.75 percent, outperforming the wider stock market. The S&P financial sector closed 0.6 percent higher following the Fed's bullish statement, which led all groups. However, seven of the 11 major sectors ended in negative territory.

Shares of Apple dropped 0.3 percent, adding pressure on indexes, but still managed to pare losses following its quarterly report, in which it posted a sudden decline in iPhone sales.

Among shares active in corporate news, U.S. wireless carrier Sprint plunged 14.3 percent after it failed to give particular details on deals it will pursue, despite its reduced quarterly loss. Facebook Inc slipped over one percent despite posting a 76.6 percent jump in quarterly profit.

The New York Times Co jumped 12.6 percent after the newspaper publisher posted its largest quarterly revenue growth in six years. Delphi Automotive was the largest percentage advancer in the S&P 500 as its shares rose 10.9 percent. The firm said it planned to spin off operations tied to internal combustion engines and eyed technology for electrically powered and self-driving vehicles.

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Australia Performance Of Construction Index Climbs To 51.9 - AiG

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The construction sector in Australia continued to expand in April, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Friday with a Performance of Construction Index score of 51.9.

That's up from 51.2 in March, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the actives, house building activity continued to expand in April, while apartment building turned back to expansion - but commercial construction continued to weaken.

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Wall Street Little Changed as Healthcare Bill Passed

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U.S. equities were little changed as the sharp decline for the energy sector offset some strong earnings reports after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a health care overhaul.

The House voted to repeal major parts of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, and replace it with the Republican healthcare, sending it to the Senate for consideration.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 0.03 percent at 20,951.47, as Caterpillar lagged behind while 3M outperformed. The S&P 500 added 0.06 percent at 2,389.52, as consumer staples led eight sectors up while energy underperformed. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.05 percent at 6,075.34.

The healthcare sector traded higher for most of the session and was the second-best performer in the S&P. Regeneron jumped 6.7 percent while Zoetis advanced 5.9 percent after results.

The energy sector fell 1.9 percent and was the worst performing group. Exxon Mobil's 1.3 percent drop and Chevron's 1.8 percent tumble added pressure on the S&P.

Among shares active in corporate news, Tesla slipped five percent after the electric automaker's quarterly net loss expanded.

Earnings season continued, as social media heavyweight Facebook exceeded estimates for both profit and revenue,the same goes for Chesapeake Energy and Church & Dwight, among others. The season has mostly been above expectations which encouraged investors.

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French Election: How Much Pro-Eu Is Macron?

This year’s French election second round was similar to a referendum on the European Union. While the now defeated Front National candidate was the most prominent EU-skeptic, the independent candidate who just won with more than 65 percent of the votes is believed to be the most pro-EU candidate among the lot.

There were 11 candidates in this year’s French election. Three were EU-skeptic and the rest eight were pro-EU. So, how much pro-EU is Emmanuel Macron?

He is the candidate, who favors the European Union and wants further integration within the bloc to make the cementing stronger.

One of the biggest drawbacks of the European Union is that it is not a political union and Macron is one of the few who would like to remove that obstacle probably by giving up parts of the French sovereignty if others join in too.

He is an EU-optimist. While many remain skeptical towards the European Union in the current scenario, he believes that good days of the EU are ahead and he believes that the union could become even stronger under the right leadership.

The following instance would give the readers fair idea of his support towards the EU.

After it was clear that Emmanuel Macron is the winner of the election, he appeared in front of his supporters to the sound of the EU anthem Ode To Joy instead of the French instead of French National Anthem La Marseillaise.

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Euro Strengthen on Relief as Macron Secures French Presidency

The euro has rallied after pro-European Union Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious in the French presidential election by a landslide.

The common currency advanced by as much as $1.1024, its highest in around six months, before retreating to $1.0998, unchanged from late U. S. levels in the prior week. The common currency reached a one-year peak point of 124.58 yen versus the Japanese currency and a five-month high of 1.08865 Swiss Franc.

On the other hand, the pound fell 0.1 per cent against the dollar at $1.2968 and weakened the same amount against the euro to €1.1794.

The reaction was muted as Macron's win was already priced in by the market. The former investment banker's promise of reducing corporate taxes and revamping the labour market has made him a highly-favored contender in the presidential race.

The independent candidate was swept to victory in the presidential election, beating the far right-candidate with 65 percent of the vote. Le Pen secured only 35 percent of the total votes. The gap that was broader than the 20 percentage points that pre-election polls had suggested.

During his campaign, Macron has advocated for greater European integration and has proposed a range of policies involving the combination of budget cuts, additional market flexibility, along with public investment and the extension of welfare state.

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India’s Consumer Price Inflation Likely eased Further in April

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India’s consumer price inflation for the April month is expected to have eased. According to a DBS Bank research report, the inflation is expected to have stayed below 4 percent for the sixth straight month, slowing to 3.4 percent year-on-year from March’s 3.8 percent. Food prices are expected to have dropped below 2 percent year-on-year on base effects, weaker pulses, while perishables stabilized.

In the meantime, core readings are expected to have remained sticky but below 5 percent. The slowdown in consumer price inflation expected to be at odds with the central bank’s neutral stance.

“Inflation is likely to ease further towards 3.0 percent by June on base effects, pushing the markets to monitor June policy guidance closely”, added DBS Bank.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to play up the risks to inflation in the second half of 2017, thus justifying an on-hold stance, stated DBS Bank.

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Benchmark Treasury Yield Hits Multi-Weeks High after French Vote

U.S. government bond prices fell and drove up yields after Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious in the runoff for the French presidential election, easing geopolitical worries that anti-EU Marine Le Pen would win.

The yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2.4 bps to 2.376 percent, its highest level in six weeks. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year Treasury note edged up 1.2 bps to the fourth day in a row to 1.330 percent, its longest winning stretch since early March. The yield for the long bond or the 30-year note advanced 2.5 bps to 3.013 percent.

Risk appetite improved and investors shed their safe-haven assets as Macron's conclusive defeat of the far-right contender Le Pen was perceived as a decisively indicative test for the wave of populism rising over Europe, allaying markets that have become anxious over a rising support for the anti-EU establishment politicians.

The gap or spread between German and French bond yields, has now fallen to 41.7 bps from a peak of 78 bps in February. Traders are also now looking forward to the wave of economic data

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China CPI Climbs To 1.2% In April

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Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That topped expectations for an increase of 1.1 percent and was up from 0.9 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, inflation added 0.1 percent after slipping 0.3 percent in the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices climbed 6.4 percent on year - shy of forecasts for 6.7 percent and down from 7.6 percent a month earlier.

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